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During 2012, 2013 and 2015, we collected small mammals within 25 km of the town of Boende in Tshuapa Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The prevalence of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in this area is unknown; however, cases of human infection were previously confirmed near these collection sites. Samples were collected from 353 mammals (rodents, shrews, pangolins, elephant shrews, a potamogale, and a hyrax). Some rodents and shrews were captured from houses where human monkeypox cases have recently been identified, but most were trapped in forests and agricultural areas near villages. Real-time PCR and ELISA were used to assess evidence of MPXV infection and other Orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infections in these small mammals. Seven (2.0%) of these animal samples were found to be anti-orthopoxvirus immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody positive (six rodents: two Funisciurus spp.; one Graphiurus lorraineus; one Cricetomys emini; one Heliosciurus sp.; one Oenomys hypoxanthus, and one elephant shrew Petrodromus tetradactylus); no individuals were found positive in PCR-based assays. These results suggest that a variety of animals can be infected with OPXVs, and that epidemiology studies and educational campaigns should focus on animals that people are regularly contacting, including larger rodents used as protein sources.

Contagious ecthyma is a skin disease, caused by Orf virus, creating great economic threats to livestock farming worldwide. Zoonotic potential of this disease has gained recent attention owing to the re-emergence of disease in several parts of the world. Increased public health concern emphasizes the need for a predictive understanding of the geographic distributional potential of Orf virus. Here, we mapped the current distribution using occurrence records, and estimated the ecological niche in both geographical and environmental spaces. Twenty modeling experiments, resulting from two- and three-partition models, were performed to choose the candidate models that best represent the geographic distributional potential of Orf virus. For all of our models, it was possible to reject the null hypothesis of predictive performance no better than random expectations. However, statistical significance must be accompanied by sufficiently good predictive performance if a model is to be useful. In our case, omission of known distribution of the virus was noticed in all Maxent models, indicating inferior quality of our models. This conclusion was further confirmed by the independent final evaluation, using occurrence records sourced from the Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International. Minimum volume ellipsoid (MVE) models indicated the broad range of environmental conditions under which Orf virus infections are found. The excluded climatic conditions from MVEs could not be considered as unsuitable owing to the broad distribution of Orf virus. These results suggest two possibilities: that the niche models fail to identify niche limits that constrain the virus, or that the virus has no detectable niche, as it can be found throughout the geographic distributions of its hosts. This potential limitation of component-based pathogen-only ENMs is discussed in detail.

Using data from 12 US health departments, we estimated mean serial interval for monkeypox virus infection to be 8.5 (95% credible interval 7.3-9.9) days for symptom onset, based on 57 case pairs. Mean estimated incubation period was 5.6 (95% credible interval 4.3-7.8) days for symptom onset, based on 35 case pairs.

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease endemic to central and western Africa, where it is a major public health concern. Although Monkeypox virus (MPXV) and monkeypox disease in humans have been well characterized, little is known about its natural history, or its maintenance in animal populations of sylvatic reservoir(s). In 2003, several species of rodents imported from Ghana were involved in a monkeypox outbreak in the United States with individuals of three African rodent genera (Cricetomys, Graphiurus, Funisciurus) shown to be infected with MPXV. Here, we examine the course of MPXV infection in Cricetomys gambianus (pouched Gambian rats) and this rodent species' competence as a host for the virus. We obtained ten Gambian rats from an introduced colony in Grassy Key, Florida and infected eight of these via scarification with a challenge dose of 4X104 plaque forming units (pfu) from either of the two primary clades of MPXV: Congo Basin (C-MPXV: n = 4) or West African (W-MPXV: n = 4); an additional 2 animals served as PBS controls. Viral shedding and the effect of infection on activity and physiological aspects of the animals were measured. MPXV challenged animals had significantly higher core body temperatures, reduced activity and increased weight loss than PBS controls. Viable virus was found in samples taken from animals in both experimental groups (C-MPXV and W-MPXV) between 3 and 27 days post infection (p.i.) (up to 1X108 pfu/ml), with viral DNA found until day 56 p.i. The results from this work show that Cricetomys gambianus (and by inference, probably the closely related species, Cricetomys emini) can be infected with MPXV and shed viable virus particles; thus suggesting that these animals may be involved in the maintenance of MPXV in wildlife mammalian populations. More research is needed to elucidate the epidemiology of MPXV and the role of Gambian rats and other species.

Mpox was first identified against the backdrop of the smallpox eradication campaign. Monkeypox virus (MPXV), the causative agent of mpox, has been maintained in animal reservoirs in the forested regions of West and Central Africa as 2 distinct clades; clade I has historically caused more severe infection in Central Africa than clade II, historically found in West Africa. However, rapid reemergence and spread of both MPXV clades through novel routes of transmission have challenged the known characteristics of mpox. We summarize mpox demographic distribution, clinical severity, and case-fatality rates attributed to genetically distinct MPXV subclades and focus on MPXV clade Ib, the more recently identified subclade. Broad worldwide assistance will be necessary to halt the spread of both MPXV clades within mpox endemic and nonendemic regions to prevent future outbreaks.

Preparedness activities against highly transmissible viruses with high mortality rates have been highlighted during the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Smallpox, caused by variola virus (VARV) infection, is highly transmissible, with an estimated 30% mortality. Smallpox, caused by Variola virus (VARV), was eradicated in 1980; however, VARV bioterrorist threats still exist, necessitating readily available therapeutics. Current preparedness activities recognize the importance of oral antivirals and recommend therapeutics with different mechanisms of action. Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is closely related to VARV, causing a highly similar clinical human disease, and can be used as a surrogate for smallpox antiviral testing. The prairie dog MPXV model has been characterized and used to study the efficacy of antipoxvirus therapeutics, including recently approved TPOXX (tecovirimat). Brincidofovir (BCV; CMX001) has shown antiviral activity against double-stranded DNA viruses, including poxviruses. To determine the exposure of BCV following oral administration to prairie dogs, a pharmacokinetics (PK) study was performed. Analysis of BCV plasma concentrations indicated variability, conceivably due to the outbred nature of the animals. To determine BCV efficacy in the MPXV prairie dog model, groups of animals were intranasally challenged with 9 × 10 5 plaque-forming units (PFU; 90% lethal dose [LD 90 ]) of MPXV on inoculation day 0 (ID0). Animals were divided into groups based on the first day of BCV treatment relative to inoculation day (ID–1, ID0, or ID1). A trend in efficacy was noted dependent upon treatment initiation (57% on ID–1, 43% on ID0, and 29% on ID1) but was lower than demonstrated in other animal models. Analysis of the PK data indicated that BCV plasma exposure (maximum concentration [ C max ]) and the time of the last quantifiable concentration (AUC last ) were lower than in other animal models administered the same doses, indicating that suboptimal BCV exposure may explain the lower protective effect on survival. IMPORTANCE Preparedness activities against highly transmissible viruses with high mortality rates have been highlighted during the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Smallpox, caused by variola virus (VARV) infection, is highly transmissible, with an estimated 30% mortality. Through an intensive vaccination campaign, smallpox was declared eradicated in 1980, and routine smallpox vaccination of individuals ceased. Today's current population has little/no immunity against VARV. If smallpox were to reemerge, the worldwide results would be devastating. Recent FDA approval of one smallpox antiviral (tecovirimat) was a successful step in biothreat preparedness; however, orthopoxviruses can become resistant to treatment, suggesting the need for multiple therapeutics. Our paper details the efficacy of the investigational smallpox drug brincidofovir in a monkeypox virus (MPXV) animal model. Since brincidofovir has not been tested in vivo against smallpox, studies with the related virus MPXV are critical in understanding whether it would be protective in the event of a smallpox outbreak.

In low and middle-income countries, a large proportion of animal rabies investigations end without a conclusive diagnosis leading to epidemiologic interpretations informed by clinical, rather than laboratory data. We compared Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) with Logistic Regression (LR) for their ability to estimate the probability of rabies in animals investigated as part of an Integrated Bite Case Management program (IBCM). To balance our training data, we used Random Oversampling (ROS) and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique. We developed a risk stratification framework based on predicted rabies probabilities. XGB performed better at predicting rabies cases than LR. Oversampling strategies enhanced the model sensitivity making them the preferred technique to predict rare events like rabies in a biting animal. XGB-ROS classified most of the confirmed rabies cases and only a small proportion of non-cases as either high (confirmed cases = 85.2%, non-cases = 0.01%) or moderate (confirmed cases = 8.4%, non-cases = 4.0%) risk. Model-based risk stratification led to a 3.2-fold increase in epidemiologically useful data compared to a routine surveillance strategy using IBCM case definitions. Our study demonstrates the application of machine learning to strengthen zoonotic disease surveillance under resource-limited settings.

The protection provided by smallpox vaccines when used after exposure to Orthopoxviruses is poorly understood. Postexposu re administration of 1st generation smallpox vaccines was effective during eradication. However, historical epidemiological reports and animal studies on postexposure vaccination are difficult to extrapolate to today’s populations, and 2nd and 3rd generation vaccines, developed after eradication, have not been widely tested in postexposure vaccination scenarios. In addition to concerns about preparedness for a potential malevolent reintroduction of variola virus, humans are becoming increasingly exposed to naturally occurring zoonotic orthopoxviruses and, following these exposures, disease severity is worse in individuals who never received smallpox vaccination. This study investigated whether postexposure vaccination of prairie dogs with 2nd and 3rd generation smallpox vaccines was protective against monkeypox disease in four exposure scenarios. We infected animals with monkeypox virus at doses of 104 pfu (2× LD50) or 106 pfu (170× LD50) and vaccinated the animals with IMVAMUNE® or ACAM2000® either 1 or 3 days after challenge. Our results indicated that postexposure vaccination protected the animals to some degree from the 2× LD50, but not the 170× LD5 challenge. In the 2× LD50 challenge, we also observed that administration of vaccine at 1 day was more effective than administration at 3 days postexposure for IMVAMUNE®, but ACAM2000® was similarly effective at either postexposure vaccination time-point. The effects of postexposure vaccination and correlations with survival of total and neutralizing antibody responses, protein targets, take formation, weight loss, rash burden, and viral DNA are also presented.

To investigate animal reservoirs of monkeypox virus in Nigeria, we sampled 240 rodents during 2018-2019. Molecular (real-time PCR) and serologic (IgM) evidence indicated orthopoxvirus infections, but presence of monkeypox virus was not confirmed. These results can be used to develop public health interventions to reduce human infection with orthopoxviruses.

Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease endemic in Central and West Africa and is caused by Monkeypox virus (MPXV), the most virulent Orthopoxvirus affecting humans since the eradication of Variola virus (VARV). Many aspects of the MPXV transmission cycle, including the natural host of the virus, remain unknown. African rope squirrels (Funisciurus spp.) are considered potential reservoirs of MPXV, as serosurveillance data in Central Africa has confirmed the circulation of the virus in these rodent species [1,2]. In order to understand the tissue tropism and clinical signs associated with infection with MPXV in these species, wild-caught rope squirrels were experimentally infected via intranasal and intradermal exposure with a recombinant MPXV strain from Central Africa engineered to express the luciferase gene. After infection, we monitored viral replication and shedding via in vivo bioluminescent imaging, viral culture and real time PCR. MPXV infection in African rope squirrels caused mortality and moderate to severe morbidity, with clinical signs including pox lesions in the skin, eyes, mouth and nose, dyspnea, and profuse nasal discharge. Both intranasal and intradermal exposures induced high levels of viremia, fast systemic spread, and long periods of viral shedding. Shedding and luminescence peaked at day 6 post infection and was still detectable after 15 days. Interestingly, one sentinel animal, housed in the same room but in a separate cage, also developed severe MPX disease and was euthanized. This study indicates that MPXV causes significant pathology in African rope squirrels and infected rope squirrels shed large quantities of virus, supporting their role as a potential source of MPXV transmission to humans and other animals in endemic MPX regions.