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We reflect on epidemiological modeling conducted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic in Western Europe, specifically in Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Western Europe was initially one of the worst-hit regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Western European countries deployed a range of policy responses to the pandemic, which were often informed by mathematical, computational, and statistical models. Models differed in terms of temporal scope, pandemic stage, interventions modeled, and analytical form. This diversity was modulated by differences in data availability and quality, government interventions, societal responses, and technical capacity. Many of these models were decisive to policy making at key junctures, such as during the introduction of vaccination and the emergence of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. However, models also faced intense criticism from the press, other scientists, and politicians around their accuracy and appropriateness for decision making. Hence, evaluating the success of models in terms of accuracy and influence is an essential task. Modeling needs to be supported by infrastructure for systems to collect and share data, model development, and collaboration between groups, as well as two-way engagement between modelers and both policy makers and the public.

Mycotoxins are natural metabolites produced by fungi that contaminate food and feed worldwide. They can pose a threat to human and animal health, mainly causing chronic effects, e.g., immunotoxic and carcinogenic. Due to climate change, an increase in European population exposure to mycotoxins is expected to occur, raising public health concerns. This urges us to assess the current human exposure to mycotoxins in Europe to allow monitoring exposure and prevent future health impacts. The mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON) and fumonisin B1 (FB1) were considered as priority substances to be studied within the European Human Biomonitoring Initiative (HBM4EU) to generate knowledge on internal exposure and their potential health impacts. Several policy questions were addressed concerning hazard characterization, exposure and risk assessment. The present article presents the current advances attained under the HBM4EU, research needs and gaps. Overall, the knowledge on the European population risk from exposure to DON was improved by using new harmonised data and a newly derived reference value. In addition, mechanistic information on FB1 was, for the first time, organized into an adverse outcome pathway for a congenital anomaly. It is expected that this knowledge will support policy making and contribute to driving new Human Biomonitoring (HBM) studies on mycotoxin exposure in Europe.

Vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 have been ongoing worldwide since the end of 2020. Understanding their possible effect is key to prevent future disease spread. Using a modelling approach, this study intends to measure the impact of the COVID-19 Portuguese vaccination strategy on the effective reproduction number and explore three scenarios for vaccine effectiveness waning. Namely, the no-immunity-loss, 1-year and 3-years of immunity duration scenarios. We adapted an age-structured SEIR deterministic model and used Portuguese hospitalisation data for the model calibration. Results show that, although the Portuguese vaccination plan had a substantial impact in reducing overall transmission, it might not be sufficient to control disease spread. A significant vaccination coverage of those above 5 years old, a vaccine effectiveness against disease of at least 80% and softer non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask usage and social distancing, would be necessary to control disease spread in the worst scenario considered. The immunity duration scenario of 1-year displays a resurgence of COVID-19 hospitalisations by the end of 2021, the same is observed in 3-year scenario although with a lower magnitude. The no-immunity-loss scenario presents a low increase in hospitalisations. In both the 1-year and 3-year scenarios, a vaccination boost of those above 65 years old would result in a 53% and 38% peak reduction of non-ICU hospitalisations, respectively. These results suggest that NPIs should not be fully phased-out but instead be combined with a fast booster vaccination strategy to reduce healthcare burden.

Early-life exposure occurs during gestation through transfer to the fetus and later, during lactation. Recent monitoring data revealed that the Portuguese population is exposed to mycotoxins, including young children. This study aimed to develop a pilot study to assess the early-life exposure to mycotoxins through a mother-child cohort, and to identify the associated challenges. Participants were recruited during pregnancy (1st trimester) and followed-up in three moments of observation: 2nd trimester of pregnancy (mother), and 1st and 6th month of the child's life (mother and child), with the collection of biological samples and sociodemographic and food consumption data. The earlyMYCO pilot study enrolled 19 mother-child pairs. The analysis of biological samples from participants revealed the presence of 4 out of 15 and 5 out of 18 mycotoxins' biomarkers of exposure in urine and breast milk samples, respectively. The main aspects identified as contributors for the successful development of the cohort were the multidisciplinary and dedicated team members in healthcare units, reduced burden of participation, and the availability of healthcare units for the implementation of the fieldwork. Challenges faced, lessons learned, and suggestions were discussed as a contribution for the development of further studies in this area.

In Health Examination Surveys interview information is complemented with objective information, providing more accurate indicators than self-reported data. We report the study design, planning and implementation of the first Portuguese Health Examination Survey (INSEF). INSEF was a cross-sectional population-based study representative at regional and national level. Individuals aged between 25 and 74 years old, residing in Portugal were selected from the national health users' registry through multi-stage stratified probabilistic sampling. Sample size was set at 4200 individuals. Data was collected in primary care units and included blood pressure, height, weight, hip and waist measurements, blood collection for lipid profile, HbA1c and blood count and a general health questionnaire. European HES procedures were followed. A total of 4911 individuals agreed to participate (43.9% participation rate). Participation rate varied by region, sex and age group, being lower in Lisbon and Tagus Valley (32.8%), for men (41.8%) and for those aged 25-34 years old (36%). INSEF has set up an experienced national and regional structure for HES implementation. Nationally representative quality epidemiological data is now available for public health monitoring, planning and research.

•Yearly influenza vaccination (IV) is recommended to individuals with chronic conditions.•Yet only 26.7% of adults with chronic conditions reported being vaccinated from 2011 to 2014.•Younger age or female reduced the likelihood of being repeatedly vaccinated in 4 consecutive seasons.•Having a cardiovascular condition was associated with occasional vaccination against influenza.•Health professional recommendation was associated with both occasional and repeated IV. Annual influenza vaccination is recommended to people with chronic conditions. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of chronically ill adults vaccinated against influenza in consecutive seasons and to identify associated factors. We used data from the first National Health Examination Survey (INSEF), a cross-sectional study conducted in 2015 on a probabilistic sample of individuals aged 25–74 years. The population was restricted to individuals who self-reported diabetes, a respiratory, cardiovascular, liver or kidney disease. Self-reported vaccination in 4 consecutive seasons was categorized in 3 levels: unvaccinated, occasionally (vaccinated 1–3 seasons) and repeatedly vaccinated (in all 4 seasons). A multinomial logistic regression was applied to estimate odds-ratio (OR) of influenza vaccination according to sociodemographic factors, chronic condition, health care use and status. In the target population, the 2014/15 influenza vaccine coverage was 33.8% (95% CI: 29.8–38.1). The higher coverage was found in individuals reporting renal disease (66.7%) and diabetes (43.8%). The coverage decreased to 32.6%, 26.0% and 20.8% for individuals with respiratory, cardiovascular and liver diseases, respectively. The probability of being repeatedly vaccinated, compared to unvaccinated, was higher in males (OR = 2.14: 95% CI: 1.31–3.52); aged 65 and 74 (OR = 4.39; 95% CI: 1.99–9.69); whom had an appointment with a general practitioner (OR = 2.77; 95% CI: 1.00–7.66) or other physician (OR = 3.95: 95% CI: 2.53–6.16); with no smoking habits (OR = 1.58; 95% I: 1.02–2.46) and reporting diabetes (OR = 2.13; 95% CI: 1.02–4.45). Finally, having a self-reported cardiovascular condition decreased the likelihood of being occasionally (OR = 0.38; 95% CI = 0.22–0.65) vaccinated against influenza. Younger individuals, females and the ones with a self-reported cardiovascular condition were identified as more likely of non-compliance to the vaccine uptake recommendation. Future vaccination strategies should focus on the previous identified population subgroups. Also, the medical recommendation of the influenza vaccine uptake should continue and be reinforced particularly in individuals with a cardiovascular condition.

Background Participation rates in health surveys, recognized as an important quality dimension, have been declining over the years, which may affect representativeness and confidence in results. The Portuguese national health examination survey INSEF (2015) achieved a participation rate of 43.9%, which is in line with participation rates from other similar health examination surveys. The objective of this article is to describe how local teams of survey personnel conducted the survey, describing strategies used to solve practical survey problems and to try to increase the participation rate. Methods After a literature search, informal interviews were conducted with 14 public health officials from local health examination teams, regional and central authorities. Forty-one of the local staff members (survey personnel) also filled in a short questionnaire anonymously. The interviews and self-administered questionnaires were analysed using mixed methods, informed by thematic analysis. Results The local teams believed that the detailed manual, described as a “cookbook for making a health examination survey”, made it possible to maintain high scientific standards while allowing for improvising solutions to problems in the local context. The quality of the manual, supported by a series of training workshops with the central research and support team, gave the teams the confidence and knowledge to implement local solutions. Motivation and cohesion within the local teams were among the goals of the training process. Local teams felt empowered by being given large responsibilities and worked hard to incite people to attend the examination through a close and persuasive approach. Local teams praised their INSA contacts for being available for assistance throughout the survey, and said they were inspired to try harder to reach participants to please their contacts for interpersonal reasons. Conclusions The theory of organizational improvisation or bricolage , which means using limited resources to solve problems, was useful to discuss and understand what took place during INSEF. A detailed manual covering standard procedures, continuous monitoring of the data collection and face-to-face workshops, including role-play, were vital to assure high scientific standards and high participation rates in this health examination survey. Close contacts between the central team and local focal points in all regions and all survey sites were key to accommodating unexpected challenges and innovative solutions.

In 2008, the Portuguese smoke-free law came into effect including partial bans in the leisure-hospitality (LH) sector. The objective of the study is to assess the prevalence of smoking control policies (total ban, smoking permission and designated smoking areas) adopted by the LH sector in Portugal. The levels of noncompliance with each policy are investigated as well as the main factors associated with smoking permission and noncompliance with the law. Cross-sectional study conducted between January 2010 and May 2011. A random sample of venues was selected from the Portuguese LH sector database, proportionally stratified according to type, size and geographical area. All venues were assessed in loco by an observer. The independent effects of venues' characteristics on smoking permission and the level of noncompliance with the law were explored using logistic regression. Overall, 1.412 venues were included. Total ban policy was adopted by 75.9% of venues, while 8.4% had designated smoking areas. Smoking ban was more prevalent in restaurants (85.9%). Only 29.7% of discos/bars/pubs opted for complete ban. Full or partial smoking permission was higher in discos/bar/pubs (OR = 7.37; 95%CI 4.87 to 11.17). Noncompliance with the law was higher in venues allowing smoking and lower in places with complete ban (33.6% and 7.6% respectively, p<0.001). Discos/bars/pubs with full smoking permission had the highest level of noncompliance (OR = 3.31; 95%CI 1.40 to 7.83). Our findings show a high adherence to smoking ban policy by the Portuguese LH sector. Nonetheless, one quarter of the venues is fully or partially permissive towards smoking, with the discos/bars/pubs considerably contributing to this situation. Venues with smoking permission policies were less compliant with the legislation. The implementation of a comprehensive smoke-free law, without any exceptions, is essential to effectively protect people from the second hand smoke.

PurposeSunlight exposure is responsible for a large number of dermatological diseases. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of hazardous sun exposure and adherence to sun protective behaviours and its associated factors in adults from the Portuguese population.MethodsA total of 4,797 participants aged between 25 and 74 years old answered the sun exposure module of the National Health Examination Survey questionnaire, which was performed in 2015. Hazardous sun exposure and sun protective behaviours were assessed for a typical summer day during leisure time. Descriptive statistics and Poisson regression were used to examine associations between hazardous sun exposure and adherence to sun protective behaviours with population characteristics.ResultsAmong the 4,797 participants, prevalence of hazardous sun exposure was 76.4 and 67.4% among men and women, respectively. It was mainly associated with younger age, lower education level and practice of regular physical activity. The prevalence of nonadherence to sun protective behaviours was 38.6 and 22.3%, among men and women, respectively. Education and income were inversely associated with adherence to sun protective behaviours. Individuals residing in regions displaying higher UV indexes had higher prevalence of sun protective practices.ConclusionsThe prevalence of hazardous sun exposure and nonadherence to sun protective behaviours is considerable in the Portuguese population. The association between these indicators and sociodemographic factors in the population, reinforces the importance of developing sun protection messages directed at specific target audiences.

A study was conducted within the European Human Biomonitoring Initiative (HBM4EU) to characterize occupational exposure to Cr(VI). Herein we present the results of biomarkers of genotoxicity and oxidative stress, including micronucleus analysis in lymphocytes and reticulocytes, the comet assay in whole blood, and malondialdehyde and 8-oxo-2′-deoxyguanosine in urine. Workers from several Cr(VI)-related industrial activities and controls from industrial (within company) and non-industrial (outwith company) environments were included. The significantly increased genotoxicity (p = 0.03 for MN in lymphocytes and reticulocytes; p < 0.001 for comet assay data) and oxidative stress levels (p = 0.007 and p < 0.001 for MDA and 8-OHdG levels in pre-shift urine samples, respectively) that were detected in the exposed workers over the outwith company controls suggest that Cr(VI) exposure might still represent a health risk, particularly, for chrome painters and electrolytic bath platers, despite the low Cr exposure. The within-company controls displayed DNA and chromosomal damage levels that were comparable to those of the exposed group, highlighting the relevance of considering all industry workers as potentially exposed. The use of effect biomarkers proved their capacity to detect the early biological effects from low Cr(VI) exposure, and to contribute to identifying subgroups that are at higher risk. Overall, this study reinforces the need for further re-evaluation of the occupational exposure limit and better application of protection measures. However, it also raised some additional questions and unexplained inconsistencies that need follow-up studies to be clarified.