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147 result(s) for "Nance, David"
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An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11
The Montreal Protocol was designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer by enabling reductions in the abundance of ozone-depleting substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere 1 – 3 . The reduction in the atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has made the second-largest contribution to the decline in the total atmospheric concentration of ozone-depleting chlorine since the 1990s 1 . However, CFC-11 still contributes one-quarter of all chlorine reaching the stratosphere, and a timely recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer depends on a sustained decline in CFC-11 concentrations 1 . Here we show that the rate of decline of atmospheric CFC-11 concentrations observed at remote measurement sites was constant from 2002 to 2012, and then slowed by about 50 per cent after 2012. The observed slowdown in the decline of CFC-11 concentration was concurrent with a 50 per cent increase in the mean concentration difference observed between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and also with the emergence of strong correlations at the Mauna Loa Observatory between concentrations of CFC-11 and other chemicals associated with anthropogenic emissions. A simple model analysis of our findings suggests an increase in CFC-11 emissions of 13 ± 5 gigagrams per year (25 ± 13 per cent) since 2012, despite reported production being close to zero 4 since 2006. Our three-dimensional model simulations confirm the increase in CFC-11 emissions, but indicate that this increase may have been as much as 50 per cent smaller as a result of changes in stratospheric processes or dynamics. The increase in emission of CFC-11 appears unrelated to past production; this suggests unreported new production, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global CFC production by 2010. Atmospheric CFC-11 concentrations have been declining less rapidly since 2012; evidence suggests that this finding is explained by an increase in the emission of CFC-11during these years.
Constraining the Stratospheric Sulfate Budget in Global Models: Insights From In Situ OCS Measurements During 2023 SABRE and Comparison With Satellite, Balloon and Surface Data
In situ carbonyl sulfide (OCS) measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol processes, Budget and Radiative Effects (SABRE) 2023 airborne campaign are used to evaluate the sulfate budget in the Arctic stratosphere during boreal winter. The strong correspondence between these measurements and remote retrievals from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment–Fourier Transform Spectrometer provide robust validation of the satellite's capability to monitor stratospheric OCS globally. We demonstrate how trends in the tropical tropopause layer and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OCS surface data reveal a post‐2016 ∼8% global decline in OCS abundance, which is absent from many global climate models. New simulations with a revised planetary boundary layer OCS abundance show improved agreement with remote retrievals and in situ data across multiple stratospheric layers, but remaining model biases highlight the need for additional in situ OCS observations. The revised representation reduces the stratospheric sulfate burden, resulting in an increased shortwave solar flux at the tropical tropopause by as much as 0.3 Wm−2 locally, with implications for stratospheric circulation, radiative forcing, and climate feedbacks.
Holme I (Seahenge) and Holme II: ritual responses to climate change in Early Bronze Age Britain
Holme I and II were contemporary, adjacent Early Bronze Age (EBA) oak-timber enclosures exposed intertidally at Holme-next-the-sea, Norfolk, England, in 1998. Holme I enclosed a central upturned tree-stump, its function and intent unknown. Holme II is thought a mortuary structure. Both are proposed here best explained as independent ritual responses to reverse a period of severe climate deterioration recorded before 2049 BC when their timbers were felled. Holme I is thought erected on the summer-solstice, when the cuckoo traditionally stopped singing, departing to the ‘Otherworld’. It replicated the cuckoo’s supposed overwintering quarters: a tree-hole or the ‘bowers of the Otherworld’ represented by the tree-stump, remembered in folklore as ‘penning-the-cuckoo’ where a cuckoo is confined to keep singing and maintain summer. The cuckoo symbolised male-fertility being associated with several Indo-European goddesses of fertility that deified Venus - one previously identified in EBA Britain. Some mortal consorts of these goddesses appear to have been ritually sacrificed at Samhain. Holme II may be an enclosure for the body of one such ‘sacral king’. These hypotheses are considered, using abductive reasoning, as ‘inferences to the best explanations’ from the available evidence. They are supported with environmental data, astronomic and biological evidence, regional folklore, toponymy, and an ethnographic analogy with indigenous Late Iron Age practices that indirect evidence indicates were undertaken in EBA Britain. Cultural and religious continuity is supported by textual sources, the material record and ancient DNA (aDNA) studies.
A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018−2019
The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has been in decline since the production of ozone-depleting substances was phased out under the Montreal Protocol 1 , 2 . Since 2013, the concentration decline of CFC-11 slowed unexpectedly owing to increasing emissions, probably from unreported production, which, if sustained, would delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 – 12 . Here we report an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2019 and 2020, derived from atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world. We find that global CFC-11 emissions decreased by 18 ± 6 gigagrams per year (26 ± 9 per cent; one standard deviation) from 2018 to 2019, to a 2019 value (52 ± 10 gigagrams per year) that is similar to the 2008−2012 mean. The decline in global emissions suggests a substantial decrease in unreported CFC-11 production. If the sharp decline in unexpected global emissions and unreported production is sustained, any associated future ozone depletion is likely to be limited, despite an increase in the CFC-11 bank (the amount of CFC-11 produced, but not yet emitted) by 90 to 725 gigagrams by the beginning of 2020. Atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world reveal an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2018 and 2019, reversing recent trends and building confidence in the timely recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer.
Age of air from in situ trace gas measurements: insights from a new technique
The age of air is an important transport diagnostic that can be derived from trace gas measurements and compared to global chemistry climate model output. We describe a new technique to calculate the age of air, measuring transport times from the Earth's surface to any location in the atmosphere based on simultaneous in situ measurements of multiple key long-lived trace gases. The primary benefits of this new technique include (1) optimized ages of air consistent with simultaneously measured SF6 and CO2; (2) age of air from the upper troposphere through the stratosphere; (3) estimates of the second moment of age spectra that have not been well constrained from measurements; and (4) flexibility to be used with measurements across multiple instruments, platforms, and decades. We demonstrate the technique on aircraft and balloon measurements from the 1990s, the last period of extensive stratospheric in situ sampling, and several recent missions from the 2020s, and compare the results with previously published and modeled values.
Impact of leakage during HFC-125 production on the increase in HCFC-123 and HCFC-124 emissions
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are ozone-depleting substances whose production and consumption have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol in non-Article 5 (mainly developed) countries and are currently being phased out in the rest of the world. Here, we focus on two HCFCs, HCFC-123 and HCFC-124, whose emissions are not decreasing globally in line with their phase-out. We present the first measurement-derived estimates of global HCFC-123 emissions (1993–2023) and updated HCFC-124 emissions for 1978–2023. Around 5 Gg yr−1 of HCFC-123 and 3 Gg yr−1 of HCFC-124 were emitted in 2023. Both HCFC-123 and HCFC-124 are intermediates in the production of HFC-125, a non-ozone-depleting hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) that has replaced ozone-depleting substances in many applications. We show that it is possible that the observed global increase in HCFC-124 emissions could be entirely due to leakage from the production of HFC-125, provided that its leakage rate is around 1 % by mass of HFC-125 production. Global emissions of HCFC-123 have not decreased despite its phase-out for production under the Montreal Protocol, and its use in HFC-125 production may be a contributing factor to this. Emissions of HCFC-124 from western Europe, the USA and East Asia have either fallen or not increased since 2015 and together cannot explain the entire increase in the derived global emissions of HCFC-124. These findings add to the growing evidence that emissions of some ozone-depleting substances are increasing due to leakage and improper destruction during fluorochemical production.
Continental-scale contributions to the global CFC-11 emission increase between 2012 and 2017
The detection of increasing global CFC-11 emissions after 2012 alerted society to a possible violation of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (MP). This alert resulted in parties to the MP taking urgent actions. As a result, atmospheric measurements made in 2019 suggest a sharp decline in global CFC-11 emissions. Despite the success in the detection and mitigation of part of this problem, regions fully responsible for the recent global emission changes in CFC-11 have not yet been identified. Roughly two thirds (60 ± 40 %) of the emission increase between 2008–2012 and 2014–2017 and two thirds (60 ± 30 %) of the decline between 2014–2017 and 2019 were explained by regional emission changes in eastern mainland China. Here, we used atmospheric CFC-11 measurements made from two global aircraft surveys – the HIAPER (High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) in November 2009–September 2011 and the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) in August 2016–May 2018, in combination with the global CFC-11 measurements made by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during these two periods – to derive global and regional emission changes in CFC-11. Our results suggest Asia accounted for the largest fractions of global CFC-11 emissions in both periods: 43 (37–52) % during November 2009–September 2011 and 57 (49–62) % during August 2016–May 2018. Asia was also primarily responsible for the emission increase between these two periods, accounting for 86 (59–115) % of the global CFC-11 emission rise between the two periods. Besides eastern mainland China, temperate western Asia and tropical Asia also contributed significantly to global CFC-11 emissions during both periods and likely to the global CFC-11 emission increase. The atmospheric observations further provide strong constraints on CFC-11 emissions from North America and Europe, suggesting that each of them accounted for 10 %–15 % of global CFC-11 emissions during the HIPPO period and smaller fractions in the ATom period. For South America, Africa, and Australia, the derived regional emissions had larger dependence on the prior assumptions of emissions and emission changes due to a lower sensitivity of the observations considered here to emissions from these regions. However, significant increases in CFC-11 emissions from southern hemispheric lands were not likely due to the observed increase of north-to-south interhemispheric gradients in atmospheric CFC-11 mole fractions from 2012–2017.
Model sensitivity studies of the decrease in atmospheric carbon tetrachloride
Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. However, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (74 % of total), but a reported 10 % uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere, where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9 % of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (17 % of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl4 loss and large lifetime uncertainty range (147 to 241 years). With an assumed CCl4 emission rate of 39 Gg year−1, the reference simulation with the best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl4 (overestimates the decay) over the past 2 decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 47 Gg year−1. Further progress in constraining the CCl4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) network are larger than from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past 2 decades. These differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl4 sinks.
With the Subsurface Maps and Cross Sections, a More Synthesized Version of the Atoka Formation in the Northern Arkoma Basin of Western Arkansas Is Produced
The Arkoma Basin is one of several peripheral foreland basins situated on the front of the Ouachita orogenic fold and thrust belt. The transition from the foredeep to the Ozark Plateaus is a short one in terms of latitude. The Atoka Formation in Arkansas comprises the bulk of the sediments in the Arkoma Basin. Three divisions of the Atoka Formation have been informally assigned as the Upper, Middle, and Lower based on differences in sedimentary response to tectonic processes that occurred during the formation and subsidence of the Arkoma Basin. In the Arkansas portion of the Arkoma Basin, the lower Atoka marks the onset of tectonic subsidence in between the Mulberry and the Cass Fault systems and displays a maximum of almost 1,000 feet of thickening in the study area. The middle Atoka in the same area gains a maximum of 4,000 feet of sediment. The upper Atoka achieves a maximum thickness of 1,800 feet. Entrapment of hydrocarbons within the Atoka Formation in the Arkoma Basin has led many oil and gas companies to penetrate and log the formation with electric, gamma ray and other mechanical logs while exploring for natural gas. This study uses these raster logs to provide a variety of maps and cross sections that illustrate the coastal systems of the lower and upper Atoka Formation and aid in the interpretation of the sedimentary response of the three Atoka divisions with respect to structural timing and sedimentology. With the subsurface maps and cross sections, a more synthesized version of the Atoka Formation in the northern Arkoma Basin of western version is produced.
UAS Chromatograph for Atmospheric Trace Species (UCATS) – a versatile instrument for trace gas measurements on airborne platforms
UCATS (the UAS Chromatograph for Atmospheric Trace Species) was designed and built for observations of important atmospheric trace gases from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Initially it measured major chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and the stratospheric transport tracers nitrous oxide (N2O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), using gas chromatography with electron capture detection. Compact commercial absorption spectrometers for ozone (O3) and water vapor (H2O) were added to enhance its capabilities on platforms with relatively small payloads. UCATS has since been reconfigured to measure methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), and molecular hydrogen (H2) instead of CFCs and has undergone numerous upgrades to its subsystems. It has served as part of large payloads on stratospheric UAS missions to probe the tropical tropopause region and transport of air into the stratosphere; in piloted aircraft studies of greenhouse gases, transport, and chemistry in the troposphere; and in 2021 is scheduled to return to the study of stratospheric ozone and halogen compounds, one of its original goals. Each deployment brought different challenges, which were largely met or resolved. The design, capabilities, modifications, and some results from UCATS are shown and described here, including changes for future missions.