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Global forests are experiencing rising temperatures and more severe droughts, with consistently dire forecasts for negative future impacts. Current research on the physiological mechanisms underlying drought impacts is focused on the water- and carbon-associated mechanisms. The role of nutrients is notably missing from this research agenda. Here, we investigate what role, if any, forest nutrition plays for survival and recovery of forests during and after drought. High nutrient availability may play a detrimental role in drought survival due to preferential biomass allocation aboveground that (1) predispose plants to hydraulic constraints limiting photosynthesis and promoting hydraulic failure, (2) increases carbon costs during periods of carbon starvation, and (3) promote biotic attack due to low tissue carbon: nitrogen (C: N). When nutrient uptake occurs during drought, high nutrient availability can increase water use efficiency thus minimizing negative feedbacks between carbon and nutrient balance. Nutrients are released after drought ceases, which might promote faster recovery but the temporal dynamics of microbial immobilization and nutrient leaching have a significant impact on nutrient availability. We provide a framework for understanding nutrient impacts on drought survival that allows a more complete analysis of forest ecosystem responses.

This article is an Editorial on the special feature issue ‘Drought impacts on tropical forests’, which is published in this issue and which includes the following articles: Lapola, pp. 845–847; McDowell et al., pp. 851–869; Albert et al., pp. 870–884; Bretfeld et al., pp. 885–899; Gotsch et al., pp. 900–913; Longo et al., pp. 914–931; Powell et al., pp. 932–946; Meakem et al., pp. 947–958; and Leitold et al., pp. 959–971.

The persistence of vegetation under climate change will depend on a plant’s capacity to exploit water resources. We analyzed water source dynamics in piñon pine and juniper trees subjected to precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming, and to both simultaneously. Piñon and juniper exhibited different and opposite shifts in water uptake depth in response to experimental stress and background climate over 3 yr. During a dry summer, juniper responded to warming with a shift to shallow water sources, whereas piñon pine responded to precipitation reduction with a shift to deeper sources in autumn. In normal and wet summers, both species responded to precipitation reduction, but juniper increased deep water uptake and piñon increased shallow water uptake. Shifts in the utilization of water sources were associated with reduced stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, suggesting that belowground compensation in response to warming and water reduction did not alleviate stress impacts for gas exchange. We have demonstrated that predicted climate change could modify water sources of trees. Warming impairs juniper uptake of deep sources during extended dry periods. Precipitation reduction alters the uptake of shallow sources following extended droughts for piñon. Shifts in water sources may not compensate for climate change impacts on tree physiology.

Ecosystem models have difficulty predicting plant drought responses, partially from uncertainty in the stomatal response to water deficits in soil and atmosphere. We evaluate a ‘supply–demand’ theory for water-limited stomatal behavior that avoids the typical scaffold of empirical response functions. The premise is that canopy water demand is regulated in proportion to threat to supply posed by xylem cavitation and soil drying. The theory was implemented in a trait-based soil–plant–atmosphere model. The model predicted canopy transpiration (E), canopy diffusive conductance (G), and canopy xylem pressure (P canopy) from soil water potential (P soil) and vapor pressure deficit (D). Modeled responses to D and P soil were consistent with empirical response functions, but controlling parameters were hydraulic traits rather than coefficients. Maximum hydraulic and diffusive conductances and vulnerability to loss in hydraulic conductance dictated stomatal sensitivity and hence the iso- to anisohydric spectrum of regulation. The model matched wide fluctuations in G and P canopy across nine data sets from seasonally dry tropical forest and piñon–juniper woodland with < 26% mean error. Promising initial performance suggests the theory could be useful in improving ecosystem models. Better understanding of the variation in hydraulic properties along the root–stem–leaf continuum will simplify parameterization.

Nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) are important for the growth and survival of trees. Drought may lead to a decrease in tree growth and to NSC depletion, whereas increased soil moisture in otherwise dry ecosystems may increase growth and NSC concentrations. A long-term (13 yr) irrigation experiment was conducted in a Pinus sylvestris-dominated forest located at the dry margin of the species in southern Switzerland. We measured the relative leaf area, growth, NSCs, needle δ13C, [N] and [P] in trees on control and irrigated plots. Irrigation resulted in higher growth rates and carbon isotope discrimination, but did not alter NSC levels. Growth and NSC decreased with decreasing leaf area in both treatments, but NSC did not correlate with leaf-level gas exchange indices, such as foliar δ13C, [N] or [P]. A legacy effect was shown, as trees with initially low leaf area had limited ability to respond to prolonged irrigation. The NSC constancy across treatments provides evidence that carbohydrate storage may stay constant when climate changes are sufficiently slow to allow acclimation. Moreover, we speculate that total leaf area, rather than leaf gas exchange per unit leaf area, drives the variation in whole-tree carbohydrate dynamics in this system.

Model–data comparisons of plant physiological processes provide an understanding of mechanisms underlying vegetation responses to climate. We simulated the physiology of a piñon pine–juniper woodland (Pinus edulis–Juniperus monosperma) that experienced mortality during a 5 yr precipitation-reduction experiment, allowing a framework with which to examine our knowledge of drought-induced tree mortality. We used six models designed for scales ranging from individual plants to a global level, all containing state-of-the-art representations of the internal hydraulic and carbohydrate dynamics of woody plants. Despite the large range of model structures, tuning, and parameterization employed, all simulations predicted hydraulic failure and carbon starvation processes co-occurring in dying trees of both species, with the time spent with severe hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, rather than absolute thresholds per se, being a better predictor of impending mortality. Model and empirical data suggest that limited carbon and water exchanges at stomatal, phloem, and below-ground interfaces were associated with mortality of both species. The model–data comparison suggests that the introduction of a mechanistic process into physiology-based models provides equal or improved predictive power over traditional process-model or empirical thresholds. Both biophysical and empirical modeling approaches are useful in understanding processes, particularly when the models fail, because they reveal mechanisms that are likely to underlie mortality. We suggest that for some ecosystems, integration of mechanistic pathogen models into current vegetation models, and evaluation against observations, could result in a breakthrough capability to simulate vegetation dynamics.

To test the hypothesis that drought predisposes trees to insect attacks, we quantified the effects of water availability on insect attacks, tree resistance mechanisms, and mortality of mature piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma) using an experimental drought study in New Mexico, USA. The study had four replicated treatments (40 × 40 m plot/replicate): removal of 45% of ambient annual precipitation (H2O−); irrigation to produce 125% of ambient annual precipitation (H2O+); a drought control (C) to quantify the impact of the drought infrastructure; and ambient precipitation (A). Piñon began dying 1 yr after drought initiation, with higher mortality in the H2O− treatment relative to other treatments. Beetles (bark/twig) were present in 92% of dead trees. Resin duct density and area were more strongly affected by treatments and more strongly associated with piñon mortality than direct measurements of resin flow. For juniper, treatments had no effect on insect resistance or attacks, but needle browning was highest in the H2O− treatment. Our results provide strong evidence that ≥ 1 yr of severe drought predisposes piñon to insect attacks and increases mortality, whereas 3 yr of the same drought causes partial canopy loss in juniper.

Many species have the ability to resprout vegetatively after a substantial loss of biomass induced by environmental stress, including drought. Many of the regions characterised by ecosystems where resprouting is common are projected to experience more frequent and intense drought during the 21st Century. However, in assessments of ecosystem response to drought disturbance there has been scant consideration of the resilience and post‐drought recovery of resprouting species. Systematic differences in hydraulic and allocation traits suggest that resprouting species are more resilient to drought‐stress than nonresprouting species. Evidence suggests that ecosystems dominated by resprouters recover from disturbance more quickly than ecosystems dominated by nonresprouters. The ability of resprouters to avoid mortality and withstand drought, coupled with their ability to recover rapidly, suggests that the impact of increased drought stress in ecosystems dominated by these species may be small. The strategy of resprouting needs to be modelled explicitly to improve estimates of future climate‐change impacts on the carbon cycle, but this will require several important knowledge gaps to be filled before resprouting can be properly implemented.

The fate of tropical forests under climate change is unclear as a result, in part, of the uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation and in the ability of vegetation models to capture the effects of drought-induced mortality on aboveground biomass (AGB). We evaluated the ability of a terrestrial biosphere model with demography and hydrodynamics (Ecosystem Demography, ED2-hydro) to simulate AGB and mortality of four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) that operate along light- and water-use axes. Model predictions were compared with observations of canopy trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We then assessed the implications of eight hypothetical precipitation scenarios, including increased annual precipitation, reduced inter-annual variation, El Niño-related droughts and drier wet or dry seasons, on AGB and functional diversity of the model forest. When forced with observed meteorology, ED2-hydro predictions capture multiple BCI benchmarks. ED2-hydro predicts that AGB will be sustained under lower rainfall via shifts in the functional composition of the forest, except under the drier dry-season scenario. These results support the hypothesis that inter-annual variation in mean and seasonal precipitation promotes the coexistence of functionally diverse PFTs because of the relative differences in mortality rates. If the hydroclimate becomes chronically drier or wetter, functional evenness related to drought tolerance may decline.