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"Nath, Biswajit"
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Land Use and Land Cover Change Modeling and Future Potential Landscape Risk Assessment Using Markov-CA Model and Analytical Hierarchy Process
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) has directly played an important role in the observed climate change. In this paper, we considered Dujiangyan City and its environs (DCEN) to study the future scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 based on the 2018 simulation results from 2007 and 2018 LULC maps. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variations of future LULCC, including the future potential landscape risk (FPLR) area of the 2008 great (8.0 Mw) earthquake of south-west China. The Cellular automata–Markov chain (CA-Markov) model and multicriteria based analytical hierarchy process (MC-AHP) approach have been considered using the integration of remote sensing and GIS techniques. The analysis shows future LULC scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 along with the FPLR pattern. Based on the results of the future LULCC and FPLR scenarios, we have provided suggestions for the development in the close proximity of the fault lines for the future strong magnitude earthquakes. Our results suggest a better and safe planning approach in the Belt and Road Corridor (BRC) of China to control future Silk-Road Disaster, which will also be useful to urban planners for urban development in a safe and sustainable manner.
Journal Article
Mapping previously undetected trees reveals overlooked changes in pan-tropical tree cover
Detecting tree cover is crucial for sustainable land management and climate mitigation. Here we develop an automatic detection algorithm using high-resolution satellite data (<5 m) to map pan-tropical tree cover (2015–2022), enabling identification and change analysis for previously undetected tree cover (PUTC). Our findings reveal that neglecting PUTC represents 17.31 ± 1.78% of the total pan-tropical tree cover. Tree cover net decreased by 61.05 ± 2.36 Mha in both forested areas (63.93%) and non-forested areas (36.07%) between 2015 and 2022. Intense changes in tree cover are primarily observed in regions with PUTC, where the World Cover dataset with a resolution of 10 m often fails to accurately detect tree cover. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to quantify the contributions f climate factors and anthropogenic impacts (including human activities and land use cover change) to tree cover dynamics. Our findings indicate that 43.98% of tree cover gain is linked to increased precipitation, while 56.03% of tree cover loss is associated with anthropogenic impacts. These findings highlight the need to include undetected tree cover in strategies combating degradation, climate change, and promoting sustainability. Fine-scale mapping can improve biogeochemical cycles modeling and vegetation-climate interactions, improving global change understanding.
Accurate tree cover mapping is vital for fighting climate change and land degradation. This high-resolution study reveals that 17% of pan-tropical tree cover was previously undetected, with over half of recent losses linked to human activities.
Journal Article
Remote Sensing-Based Urban Sprawl Modeling Using Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Markov Chain in Baghdad, Iraq
The global and regional land use/cover changes (LUCCs) are experiencing widespread changes, particularly in Baghdad City, the oldest city of Iraq, where it lacks ecological restoration and environmental management actions at present. To date, multiple land uses are experiencing urban construction-related land expansion, population increase, and socioeconomic development. Comprehensive evaluation and understanding of the effect of urban sprawl and its rapid LUCC are of great importance to managing land surface resources for sustainable development. The present research applied remote sensing data, such as Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat-8 Operation Land Imager, on selected images between July and August from 1985 to 2020 with the use of multiple types of software to explore, classify, and analyze the historical and future LUCCs in Baghdad City. Three historical LUCC maps from 1985, 2000, and 2020 were created and analyzed. The result shows that urban construction land expands quickly, and agricultural land and natural vegetation have had a large loss of coverage during the last 35 years. The change analysis derived from previous land use was used as a change direction for future simulation, where natural and anthropogenic factors were selected as the drivers’ variables in the process of multilayer perceptron neural network Markov chain model. The future land use/cover change (FLUCC) modeling results from 2030 to 2050 show that agriculture is the only land use type with a massive decreasing trend from 1985 to 2050 compared with other categories. The entire change in urban sprawl derived from historical and FLUCC in each period shows that urban construction land increases the fastest between 2020 and 2030. The rapid urbanization along with unplanned urban growth and rising population migration from rural to urban is the main driver of all transformation in land use. These findings facilitate sustainable ecological development in Baghdad City and theoretically support environmental decision making.
Journal Article
Methane Emissions in Boreal Forest Fire Regions: Assessment of Five Biomass-Burning Emission Inventories Based on Carbon Sensing Satellites
Greenhouse gases such as CH4 generated by forest fires have a significant impact on atmospheric methane concentrations and terrestrial vegetation methane budgets. Verification in conjunction with “top-down” satellite remote sensing observation has become a vital way to verify biomass-burning emission inventories and accurately assess greenhouse gases while looking into the limitations in reliability and quantification of existing “bottom-up” biomass-burning emission inventories. Therefore, we considered boreal forest fire regions as an example while combining five biomass-burning emission inventories and CH4 indicators of atmospheric concentration satellite observation data. By introducing numerical comparison, correlation analysis and trend consistency analysis methods, we explained the lag effect between emissions and atmospheric concentration changes and evaluated a more reliable emission inventory using time series similarity measurement methods. The results indicated that total methane emissions from five biomass-burning emission inventories differed by a factor of 2.9 in our study area, ranging from 2.02 to 5.84 Tg for methane. The time trends of the five inventories showed good consistency, with the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.5 (QFED2.5) having a higher correlation coefficient (above 0.8) with the other four datasets. By comparing the consistency between the inventories and satellite data, a lagging effect was found to be present between the changes in atmospheric concentration and gas emissions caused by forest fires on a seasonal scale. After eliminating lagging effects and combining time series similarity measures, the QFED2.5 (Euclidean distance = 0.14) was found to have the highest similarity to satellite data. In contrast, Global Fire Emissions Database version 4.1 with small fires (GFED4.1s) and Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2) had larger Euclidean distances of 0.52 and 0.4, respectively, which meant that they had lower similarity to satellite data. Therefore, QFED2.5 was found to be more reliable while having higher application accuracy compared to the other four datasets in our study area. This study further provided a better understanding of the key role of forest fire emissions in atmospheric CH4 concentrations and offered reference for selecting appropriate biomass burning emission inventory datasets for bottom-up inventory estimation studies.
Journal Article
Dynamic Relationship Study between the Observed Seismicity and Spatiotemporal Pattern of Lineament Changes in Palghar, North Maharashtra (India)
The Palghar region (north Maharashtra, India), located in the northwestern part of the stable continental region of India, experienced a low magnitude earthquake swarm, which was initiated in September 2018 and is continuing to date (as of October 2021). From December 2018 to December 2020, ~5000 earthquakes with magnitudes from M1.2 to M3.8 occurred in a small region of 20 × 10 km2. These earthquakes were probably triggered by fluid migration during seasonal rainfall. In this study, we have used multi-temporal Landsat satellite data of the year 2000, 2015, 2018, 2019, and 2020, extracted lineaments, and studied the changes in frequency and pattern of lineaments before and after the initiation of the swarm in the Palghar region. An increase in the lineament density and amount of rainfall are found to be associated with the increasing frequency of earthquakes.
Journal Article
Estimation and Development-Potential Analysis of Regional Housing in Ningbo City Based on High-Resolution Stereo Remote Sensing
With the challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s real-estate market has been facing new bottlenecks. The solution lies in an in-depth understanding of regional real-estate conditions. In the study of housing, remote sensing technology can help to extract building height as well as to calculate the number of floors and estimate the total amount of housing. It is more efficient and accurate compared to conventional statistical and sampling methods. Remote sensing is widely used in real-estate research and building height estimation, whereas it is less frequently used for the total estimation of urban housing. In this context, we used Chinese satellite GF-7 stereopair images, point of interest (POI) data, and other data combined with the digital surface model (DSM) and shadow methods to calculate the height of residential buildings. An efficient and accurate method system was then established for estimating the total housing and per capita living area (PCLA). According to the calculation of the PCLA of each district in Ningbo City (China), it was found that different regions were suitable for different development paths. Based on this, the driving factor model was derived and the real-estate development potential of Ningbo city was quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that Ningbo City, a first-tier city with a large population inflow, still has potential for real-estate development.
Journal Article
Landscape risk analysis of the 2003 Barkal-Rangamati (5.7 M w ) earthquake in Bangladesh using geospatial techniques and people’s perceptions
Planning and urban sustainability depend equally on understanding land use and land cover (LULC) change, variability, and landscape risk (LR) assessment in earthquake-prone areas. This paper considered Barkal town and its environs (BTEN), an earthquake-prone area close to the 2003 Barkal-Rangamati Earthquake (5.7 Mw) for the LR change analysis from 2001–2024. Six different multi-temporal data for the years 2001, 2003, 2011, 2021, and 2024 are used for the detailed analysis to assess the spatial and temporal LULC and LR changes. Further, for LR mapping, Geographical Information System (GIS), and multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approaches were used. The LR mapping of the study region was prepared using various tools and approaches of geospatial techniques i.e. lineament density (LD), LR analysis, the local geology, and the LULC of various timelines. Furthermore, the ROC-AUC curve considered to validate the LD image with the LR maps considered as a novel technique in this study. The LR in the earthquake-affected areas, people’s risk perception and surface and subsurface rupture estimation also found suitable in the present study. Our detailed results will ultimately help the planners to assess better the changing state of 2003 Barkal-Rangamati earthquake-prone areas in a sustainable manner.
Journal Article
Applying Multi-Temporal Landsat Satellite Data and Markov-Cellular Automata to Predict Forest Cover Change and Forest Degradation of Sundarban Reserve Forest, Bangladesh
Overdependence on and exploitation of forest resources have significantly transformed the natural reserve forest of Sundarban, which shares the largest mangrove territory in the world, into a great degradation status. By observing these, a most pressing concern is how much degradation occurred in the past, and what will be the scenarios in the future if they continue? To confirm the degradation status in the past decades and reveal the future trend, we took Sundarban Reserve Forest (SRF) as an example, and used satellite Earth observation historical Landsat imagery between 1989 and 2019 as existing data and primary data. Moreover, a geographic information system model was considered to estimate land cover (LC) change and spatial health quality of the SRF from 1989 to 2029 based on the large and small tree categories. The maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) technique was employed to classify the historical images with five different LC types, which were further considered for future projection (2029) including trends based on 2019 simulation results from 1989 and 2019 LC maps using the Markov-cellular automata model. The overall accuracy achieved was 82.30%~90.49% with a kappa value of 0.75~0.87. The historical result showed forest degradation in the past (1989–2019) of 4773.02 ha yr−1, considered as great forest degradation (GFD) and showed a declining status when moving with the projection (2019–2029) of 1508.53 ha yr−1 and overall there was a decline of 3956.90 ha yr−1 in the 1989–2029 time period. Moreover, the study also observed that dense forest was gradually degraded (good to bad) but, conversely, light forest was enhanced, which will continue in the future even to 2029 if no effective management is carried out. Therefore, by observing the GFD, through spatial forest health quality and forest degradation mapping and assessment, the study suggests a few policies that require the immediate attention of forest policy-makers to implement them immediately and ensure sustainable development in the SRF.
Journal Article
Continuous Change Detection and Classification—Spectral Trajectory Breakpoint Recognition for Forest Monitoring
Forest is one of the most important surface coverage types. Monitoring its dynamics is of great significance in global ecological environment monitoring and global carbon circulation research. Forest monitoring based on Landsat time-series stacks is a research hotspot, and continuous change detection is a novel approach to real-time change detection. Here, we present an approach, continuous change detection and classification-spectral trajectory breakpoint recognition, running on Google Earth Engine (GEE) for monitoring forest disturbance and forest long-term trends. We used this approach to monitor forest disturbance and the change in forest cover rate from 1987 to 2020 in Nanning City, China. The high-resolution Google Earth images are collected for the validation of forest disturbance. The classification accuracy of forest, non-forest, and water maps by using the optima classification features was 95.16%. For disturbance detection, the accuracy of our map was 86.4%, significantly higher than 60% of the global forest change product. Our approach can successfully generate high-accuracy classification maps at any time and detect the forest disturbance time on a monthly scale, accurately capturing the thinning cycle of plantations, which earlier studies failed to estimate. All the research work is integrated into GEE to promote the use of the approach on a global scale.
Journal Article