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An underappreciated facet of seroepidemiological analysis is that it sometimes allows us to estimate the time at which an individual was infected with a particular pathogen. In some cases, this estimate may be helpful to a patient or a clinician treating a particular syndrome. However, in the majority of use cases, these estimates will be most practically applicable when grouped together at the population level. In this chapter, we discuss the usefulness of estimating the time of infection τ in cross-sectional serology, showing that it can help in reconstructing a past force of infection that varied in both age and time. We introduce the minimal data set and good practice in study design needed to obtain an antibody waning rate λ, which can in turn be used to estimate τ. Estimates of waning λ and time of infection τ can be carried out with straightforward regression techniques and likelihood methods. We use data from a Danish cohort of 138 patients infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Enteriditis to estimate the waning rate of an optical density (OD) measure from an ELISA IgG assay at 0.99 log-OD units per year (95% CI: 0.80-1.17). Using this cohort's inferred antibody waning rate, we show that the 95 percent confidence and 95 percent credible intervals for time of infection are too wide to be practically useful at an individual scale, and we suggest methods for aggregating these estimates into more useful population-level analyses. We characterize the bias in estimates of τ and show that these will be biased upward when the time of infection is recent, and that this bias will decrease for times of infection further in the past. This chapter aims to provide an overview of simulation-based inference for epidemics and considers final outcome data in a measles epidemic in a school estimating the infection rate and the protective effect of vaccination. It discusses the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm along with some extensions of the algorithm to make it more efficient. The chapter investigates various ways in which simulation-based inference can improve upon the vanilla ABC algorithm by considering the selection of parameters for the simulations, the simulation process to ensure closer agreement between the simulated and observed data and how to determine how closeness is measured. The vanilla ABC algorithm offers a substantial practical improvement on the EBC algorithm but there is much room for improvement. The distance metric should take into account the importance attached to each summary statistic; for example, in an epidemic data set the total number infected in the epidemic is a key summary.

Covering the latest advances in CNS drug development, this book will guide all those involved in pre-clinical to early clinical trials.The authors describe how recent innovations can accelerate the development of novel CNS compounds, improve early detection of efficacy and toxicity signals, and increase the safety of later-stage clinical trials.

In the ProtecT trial, over 1600 men with PSA-detected localized prostate cancer were assigned to active monitoring, prostatectomy, or radiotherapy. Although more patients assigned to active monitoring had disease progression, overall survival was similar in the three groups. The management of clinically localized prostate cancer that is detected on the basis of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels remains controversial. In the United States alone, an estimated 180,890 cases will be diagnosed in 2016, and 26,120 men will die from the disease. 1 The widespread use of PSA testing has resulted in a dramatic increase in the diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer, but many men do not benefit from intervention because the disease is either indolent or disseminated at diagnosis. Prostate cancer often progresses slowly, and many men die of competing causes. In addition, interventions for prostate cancer can have . . .

Global climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have heightened the need to rapidly characterize ecological changes in marine benthic communities across large scales. Digital photography enables rapid collection of survey images to meet this need, but the subsequent image annotation is typically a time consuming, manual task. We investigated the feasibility of using automated point-annotation to expedite cover estimation of the 17 dominant benthic categories from survey-images captured at four Pacific coral reefs. Inter- and intra- annotator variability among six human experts was quantified and compared to semi- and fully- automated annotation methods, which are made available at coralnet.ucsd.edu. Our results indicate high expert agreement for identification of coral genera, but lower agreement for algal functional groups, in particular between turf algae and crustose coralline algae. This indicates the need for unequivocal definitions of algal groups, careful training of multiple annotators, and enhanced imaging technology. Semi-automated annotation, where 50% of the annotation decisions were performed automatically, yielded cover estimate errors comparable to those of the human experts. Furthermore, fully-automated annotation yielded rapid, unbiased cover estimates but with increased variance. These results show that automated annotation can increase spatial coverage and decrease time and financial outlay for image-based reef surveys.

This Review is intended to help clinicians, patients, and the public make informed decisions about statin therapy for the prevention of heart attacks and strokes. It explains how the evidence that is available from randomised controlled trials yields reliable information about both the efficacy and safety of statin therapy. In addition, it discusses how claims that statins commonly cause adverse effects reflect a failure to recognise the limitations of other sources of evidence about the effects of treatment. Large-scale evidence from randomised trials shows that statin therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events (ie, coronary deaths or myocardial infarctions, strokes, and coronary revascularisation procedures) by about one-quarter for each mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol during each year (after the first) that it continues to be taken. The absolute benefits of statin therapy depend on an individual's absolute risk of occlusive vascular events and the absolute reduction in LDL cholesterol that is achieved. For example, lowering LDL cholesterol by 2 mmol/L (77 mg/dL) with an effective low-cost statin regimen (eg, atorvastatin 40 mg daily, costing about £2 per month) for 5 years in 10 000 patients would typically prevent major vascular events from occurring in about 1000 patients (ie, 10% absolute benefit) with pre-existing occlusive vascular disease (secondary prevention) and in 500 patients (ie, 5% absolute benefit) who are at increased risk but have not yet had a vascular event (primary prevention). Statin therapy has been shown to reduce vascular disease risk during each year it continues to be taken, so larger absolute benefits would accrue with more prolonged therapy, and these benefits persist long term. The only serious adverse events that have been shown to be caused by long-term statin therapy—ie, adverse effects of the statin—are myopathy (defined as muscle pain or weakness combined with large increases in blood concentrations of creatine kinase), new-onset diabetes mellitus, and, probably, haemorrhagic stroke. Typically, treatment of 10 000 patients for 5 years with an effective regimen (eg, atorvastatin 40 mg daily) would cause about 5 cases of myopathy (one of which might progress, if the statin therapy is not stopped, to the more severe condition of rhabdomyolysis), 50–100 new cases of diabetes, and 5–10 haemorrhagic strokes. However, any adverse impact of these side-effects on major vascular events has already been taken into account in the estimates of the absolute benefits. Statin therapy may cause symptomatic adverse events (eg, muscle pain or weakness) in up to about 50–100 patients (ie, 0·5–1·0% absolute harm) per 10 000 treated for 5 years. However, placebo-controlled randomised trials have shown definitively that almost all of the symptomatic adverse events that are attributed to statin therapy in routine practice are not actually caused by it (ie, they represent misattribution). The large-scale evidence available from randomised trials also indicates that it is unlikely that large absolute excesses in other serious adverse events still await discovery. Consequently, any further findings that emerge about the effects of statin therapy would not be expected to alter materially the balance of benefits and harms. It is, therefore, of concern that exaggerated claims about side-effect rates with statin therapy may be responsible for its under-use among individuals at increased risk of cardiovascular events. For, whereas the rare cases of myopathy and any muscle-related symptoms that are attributed to statin therapy generally resolve rapidly when treatment is stopped, the heart attacks or strokes that may occur if statin therapy is stopped unnecessarily can be devastating.

Co-inhibition of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) and androgen receptor activity might result in antitumour efficacy irrespective of alterations in DNA damage repair genes involved in homologous recombination repair (HRR). We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of talazoparib (a PARP inhibitor) plus enzalutamide (an androgen receptor blocker) versus enzalutamide alone in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). TALAPRO-2 is a randomised, double-blind, phase 3 trial of talazoparib plus enzalutamide versus placebo plus enzalutamide as first-line therapy in men (age ≥18 years [≥20 years in Japan]) with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic mCRPC receiving ongoing androgen deprivation therapy. Patients were enrolled from 223 hospitals, cancer centres, and medical centres in 26 countries in North America, Europe, Israel, South America, South Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region. Patients were prospectively assessed for HRR gene alterations in tumour tissue and randomly assigned (1:1) to talazoparib 0·5 mg or placebo, plus enzalutamide 160 mg, administered orally once daily. Randomisation was stratified by HRR gene alteration status (deficient vs non-deficient or unknown) and previous treatment with life-prolonging therapy (docetaxel or abiraterone, or both: yes vs no) in the castration-sensitive setting. The sponsor, patients, and investigators were masked to talazoparib or placebo, while enzalutamide was open-label. The primary endpoint was radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) by blinded independent central review, evaluated in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was evaluated in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03395197) and is ongoing. Between Jan 7, 2019, and Sept 17, 2020, 805 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned (402 to the talazoparib group and 403 to the placebo group). Median follow-up for rPFS was 24·9 months (IQR 21·9–30·2) for the talazoparib group and 24·6 months (14·4–30·2) for the placebo group. At the planned primary analysis, median rPFS was not reached (95% CI 27·5 months–not reached) for talazoparib plus enzalutamide and 21·9 months (16·6–25·1) for placebo plus enzalutamide (hazard ratio 0·63; 95% CI 0·51–0·78; p<0·0001). In the talazoparib group, the most common treatment-emergent adverse events were anaemia, neutropenia, and fatigue; the most common grade 3–4 event was anaemia (185 [46%] of 398 patients), which improved after dose reduction, and only 33 (8%) of 398 patients discontinued talazoparib due to anaemia. Treatment-related deaths occurred in no patients in the talazoparib group and two patients (<1%) in the placebo group. Talazoparib plus enzalutamide resulted in clinically meaningful and statistically significant improvement in rPFS versus standard of care enzalutamide as first-line treatment for patients with mCRPC. Final overall survival data and additional long-term safety follow-up will further clarify the clinical benefit of the treatment combination in patients with and without tumour HRR gene alterations. Pfizer.

Meningococcal conjugate vaccines protect individuals directly, but can also confer herd protection by interrupting carriage transmission. We assessed the effects of meningococcal quadrivalent glycoconjugate (MenACWY-CRM) or serogroup B (4CMenB) vaccination on meningococcal carriage rates in 18–24-year-olds. In this phase 3, observer-blind, randomised controlled trial, university students aged 18–24 years from ten sites in England were randomly assigned (1:1:1, block size of three) to receive two doses 1 month apart of Japanese Encephalitis vaccine (controls), 4CMenB, or one dose of MenACWY-CRM then placebo. Participants were randomised with a validated computer-generated random allocation list. Participants and outcome-assessors were masked to the treatment group. Meningococci were isolated from oropharyngeal swabs collected before vaccination and at five scheduled intervals over 1 year. Primary outcomes were cross-sectional carriage 1 month after each vaccine course. Secondary outcomes included comparisons of carriage at any timepoint after primary analysis until study termination. Reactogenicity and adverse events were monitored throughout the study. Analysis was done on the modified intention-to-treat population, which included all enrolled participants who received a study vaccination and provided at least one assessable swab after baseline. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, registration number NCT01214850. Between Sept 21 and Dec 21, 2010, 2954 participants were randomly assigned (987 assigned to control [984 analysed], 979 assigned to 4CMenB [974 analysed], 988 assigned to MenACWY-CRM [983 analysed]); 33% of the 4CMenB group, 34% of the MenACWY-CRM group, and 31% of the control group were positive for meningococcal carriage at study entry. By 1 month, there was no significant difference in carriage between controls and 4CMenB (odds ratio 1·2, 95% CI 0·8–1·7) or MenACWY-CRM (0·9, [0·6–1·3]) groups. From 3 months after dose two, 4CMenB vaccination resulted in significantly lower carriage of any meningococcal strain (18·2% [95% CI 3·4–30·8] carriage reduction), capsular groups BCWY (26·6% [10·5–39·9] carriage reduction), capsular groups CWY (29·6% [8·1–46·0] carriage reduction), and serogroups CWY (28·5% [2·8–47·5] carriage reduction) compared with control vaccination. Significantly lower carriage rates were also noted in the MenACWY-CRM group compared with controls: 39·0% (95% CI 17·3–55·0) carriage reduction for serogroup Y and 36·2% (15·6–51·7) carriage reduction for serogroup CWY. Study vaccines were generally well tolerated, with increased rates of transient local injection pain and myalgia in the 4CMenB group. No safety concerns were identified. Although we detected no significant difference between groups at 1 month after vaccine course, MenACWY-CRM and 4CMenB vaccines reduced meningococcal carriage rates during 12 months after vaccination and therefore might affect transmission when widely implemented. Novartis Vaccines.

Efforts are underway to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. Programmatic guidelines are based on clinical signs that correlate poorly with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection in post-treatment and low-endemicity settings. Age-specific seroprevalence of anti Ct Pgp3 antibodies has been proposed as an alternative indicator of the need for intervention. To standardise the use of these tools, it is necessary to develop an analytical approach that performs reproducibly both within and between studies. Dried blood spots were collected in 2014 from children aged 1-9 years in Laos (n = 952) and Uganda (n = 2700) and from people aged 1-90 years in The Gambia (n = 1868). Anti-Pgp3 antibodies were detected by ELISA. A number of visual and statistical analytical approaches for defining serological status were compared. Seroprevalence was estimated at 11.3% (Laos), 13.4% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia) by visual inspection of the inflection point. The expectation-maximisation algorithm estimated seroprevalence at 10.4% (Laos), 24.3% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia). Finite mixture model estimates were 15.6% (Laos), 17.1% (Uganda) and 26.2% (The Gambia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using a threshold calibrated against external reference specimens estimated the seroprevalence at 6.7% (Laos), 6.8% (Uganda) and 20.9% (The Gambia) when the threshold was set to optimise Youden's J index. The ROC curve analysis was found to estimate seroprevalence at lower levels than estimates based on thresholds established using internal reference data. Thresholds defined using internal reference threshold methods did not vary substantially between population samples. Internally calibrated approaches to threshold specification are reproducible and consistent and thus have advantages over methods that require external calibrators. We propose that future serological analyses in trachoma use a finite mixture model or expectation-maximisation algorithm as a means of setting the threshold for ELISA data. This will facilitate standardisation and harmonisation between studies and eliminate the need to establish and maintain a global calibration standard.

Despite the rhizotoxicity of aluminum (Al) being identified over 100 years ago, there is still no consensus regarding the mechanisms whereby root elongation rate is initially reduced in the approximately 40% of arable soils worldwide that are acidic. We used high-resolution kinematic analyses, molecular biology, rheology, and advanced imaging techniques to examine soybean (Glycine max) roots exposed to Al. Using this multidisciplinary approach, we have conclusively shown that the primary lesion of Al is apoplastic. In particular, it was found that 75μM Al reduced root growth after only 5 min (or 30 min at 30μM Al), with Al being toxic by binding to the walls of outer cells, which directly inhibited their loosening in the elongation zone. An alteration in the biosynthesis and distribution of ethylene and auxin was a second, slower effect, causing both a transient decrease in the rate of cell elongation after 1.5 h but also a longer term gradual reduction in the length of the elongation zone. These findings show the importance of focusing on traits related to cell wall composition as well as mechanisms involved in wall loosening to overcome the deleterious effects of soluble Al.