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Safety failures are an important factor in low drug development success rates. Human genetic evidence can select drug targets causal in disease and enrich for successful programs. Here, we sought to determine whether human genetic evidence can also enrich for labeled side effects (SEs) of approved drugs. We combined the SIDER database of SEs with human genetic evidence from genome-wide association studies, Mendelian disease, and somatic mutations. SEs were 2.0 times more likely to occur for drugs whose target possessed human genetic evidence for a trait similar to the SE. Enrichment was highest when the trait and SE were most similar to each other, and was robust to removing drugs where the approved indication was also similar to the SE. The enrichment of genetic evidence was greatest for SEs that were more drug specific, affected more people, and were more severe. There was significant heterogeneity among disease areas the SEs mapped to, with the highest positive predictive value for cardiovascular SEs. This supports the integration of human genetic evidence early in the drug discovery process to identify potential SE risks to be monitored or mitigated in the course of drug development.

Matthew Nelson and colleagues investigate how well genetic evidence for disease susceptibility predicts drug mechanisms. They find a correlation between gene products that are successful drug targets and genetic loci associated with the disease treated by the drug and predict that selecting genetically supported targets could increase the success rate of drugs in clinical development. Over a quarter of drugs that enter clinical development fail because they are ineffective. Growing insight into genes that influence human disease may affect how drug targets and indications are selected. However, there is little guidance about how much weight should be given to genetic evidence in making these key decisions. To answer this question, we investigated how well the current archive of genetic evidence predicts drug mechanisms. We found that, among well-studied indications, the proportion of drug mechanisms with direct genetic support increases significantly across the drug development pipeline, from 2.0% at the preclinical stage to 8.2% among mechanisms for approved drugs, and varies dramatically among disease areas. We estimate that selecting genetically supported targets could double the success rate in clinical development. Therefore, using the growing wealth of human genetic data to select the best targets and indications should have a measurable impact on the successful development of new drugs.

The human proteome is a major source of therapeutic targets. Recent genetic association analyses of the plasma proteome enable systematic evaluation of the causal consequences of variation in plasma protein levels. Here we estimated the effects of 1,002 proteins on 225 phenotypes using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization. Of 413 associations supported by evidence from MR, 130 (31.5%) were not supported by results of colocalization analyses, suggesting that genetic confounding due to linkage disequilibrium is widespread in naïve phenome-wide association studies of proteins. Combining MR and colocalization evidence in cis -only analyses, we identified 111 putatively causal effects between 65 proteins and 52 disease-related phenotypes ( https://www.epigraphdb.org/pqtl/ ). Evaluation of data from historic drug development programs showed that target-indication pairs with MR and colocalization support were more likely to be approved, evidencing the value of this approach in identifying and prioritizing potential therapeutic targets. Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization analyses are used to estimate causal effects of 1,002 plasma proteins on 225 phenotypes. Evidence from drug developmental programs shows that target-indication pairs with MR and colocalization support were more likely to be approved, highlighting the value of this approach for prioritizing therapeutic targets.

Statistical imputation of classical HLA alleles in case-control studies has become established as a valuable tool for identifying and fine-mapping signals of disease association in the MHC. Imputation into diverse populations has, however, remained challenging, mainly because of the additional haplotypic heterogeneity introduced by combining reference panels of different sources. We present an HLA type imputation model, HLA*IMP:02, designed to operate on a multi-population reference panel. HLA*IMP:02 is based on a graphical representation of haplotype structure. We present a probabilistic algorithm to build such models for the HLA region, accommodating genotyping error, haplotypic heterogeneity and the need for maximum accuracy at the HLA loci, generalizing the work of Browning and Browning (2007) and Ron et al. (1998). HLA*IMP:02 achieves an average 4-digit imputation accuracy on diverse European panels of 97% (call rate 97%). On non-European samples, 2-digit performance is over 90% for most loci and ethnicities where data available. HLA*IMP:02 supports imputation of HLA-DPB1 and HLA-DRB3-5, is highly tolerant of missing data in the imputation panel and works on standard genotype data from popular genotyping chips. It is publicly available in source code and as a user-friendly web service framework.

Rare genetic variants contribute to complex disease risk; however, the abundance of rare variants in human populations remains unknown. We explored this spectrum of variation by sequencing 202 genes encoding drug targets in 14,002 individuals. We find rare variants are abundant (1 every 17 bases) and geographically localized, so that even with large sample sizes, rare variant catalogs will be largely incomplete. We used the observed patterns of variation to estimate population growth parameters, the proportion of variants in a given frequency class that are putatively deleterious, and mutation rates for each gene. We conclude that because of rapid population growth and weak purifying selection, human populations harbor an abundance of rare variants, many of which are deleterious and have relevance to understanding disease risk.

Key Points To date, there have been at least 76 genome-wide association studies and a large number of candidate gene studies of drug efficacy. From these, there are at least 12 drugs with high-confidence genetic predictors of drug efficacy. Genetic predictors of drug efficacy are mostly common variants with a range of effect sizes; most have been discovered through studies of sensitive quantitative measures of drug response, and all but one were discovered following drug approval. Less than 20% of drugs are estimated to have common genetic predictors of efficacy that are large enough to inform clinical decision making. There are limited scenarios in which genetics can 'rescue' a trial that fails owing to lack of efficacy. However, advances in genetic technologies can allow for cost-effective screening for genetic predictors with potential clinical utility during the course of clinical development. Pharmaceutical and academic researchers should combine resources to study the efficacy pharmacogenetics of marketed drugs. In this Review, the authors highlight the potential for efficacy genetics to drive drug development and guide treatment options. They argue for the integration of routine pharmacogenetic screening into clinical development and propose strategies for identifying efficacy loci for marketed drugs. Lack of sufficient efficacy is the most common cause of attrition in late-phase drug development. It has long been envisioned that genetics could drive stratified drug development by identifying those patient subgroups that are most likely to respond. However, this vision has not been realized as only a small proportion of drugs have been found to have germline genetic predictors of efficacy with clinically meaningful effects, and so far all but one were found after drug approval. With the exception of oncology, systematic application of efficacy pharmacogenetics has not been integrated into drug discovery and development across the industry. Here, we argue for routine, early and cumulative screening for genetic predictors of efficacy, as an integrated component of clinical trial analysis. Such a strategy would identify clinically relevant predictors that may exist at the earliest possible opportunity, allow these predictors to be integrated into subsequent clinical development and provide mechanistic insights into drug disposition and patient-specific factors that influence response, therefore paving the way towards more personalized medicine.

Quantifying patterns of population structure in Africans and African Americans illuminates the history of human populations and is critical for undertaking medical genomic studies on a global scale. To obtain a fine-scale genome-wide perspective of ancestry, we analyze Affymetrix GeneChip 500K genotype data from African Americans (n = 365) and individuals with ancestry from West Africa (n = 203 from 12 populations) and Europe (n = 400 from 42 countries). We find that population structure within the West African sample reflects primarily language and secondarily geographical distance, echoing the Bantu expansion. Among African Americans, analysis of genomic admixture by a principal component-based approach indicates that the median proportion of European ancestry is 18.5% (25th-75th percentiles: 11.6-27.7%), with very large variation among individuals. In the African-American sample as a whole, few autosomal regions showed exceptionally high or low mean African ancestry, but the X chromosome showed elevated levels of African ancestry, consistent with a sex-biased pattern of gene flow with an excess of European male and African female ancestry. We also find that genomic profiles of individual African Americans afford personalized ancestry reconstructions differentiating ancient vs. recent European and African ancestry. Finally, patterns of genetic similarity among inferred African segments of African-American genomes and genomes of contemporary African populations included in this study suggest African ancestry is most similar to non-Bantu Niger-Kordofanian-speaking populations, consistent with historical documents of the African Diaspora and trans-Atlantic slave trade.

The arterial pulse has historically been an essential source of information in the clinical assessment of health. With current sphygmomanometric and oscillometric devices, only the peak and trough of the peripheral arterial pulse waveform are clinically used. Several limitations exist with peripheral blood pressure. First, central aortic pressure is a better predictor of cardiovascular outcome than peripheral pressure. Second, peripherally obtained blood pressure does not accurately reflect central pressure because of pressure amplification. Lastly, antihypertensive medications have differing effects on central pressures despite similar reductions in brachial blood pressure. Applanation tonometry can overcome the limitations of peripheral pressure by determining the shape of the aortic waveform from the radial artery. Waveform analysis not only indicates central systolic and diastolic pressure but also determines the influence of pulse wave reflection on the central pressure waveform. It can serve as a useful adjunct to brachial blood pressure measurements in initiating and monitoring hypertensive treatment, in observing the hemodynamic effects of atherosclerotic risk factors, and in predicting cardiovascular outcomes and events. Radial artery applanation tonometry is a noninvasive, reproducible, and affordable technology that can be used in conjunction with peripherally obtained blood pressure to guide patient management. Keywords for the PubMed search were applanation tonometry, radial artery, central pressure, cardiovascular risk, blood pressure, and arterial pulse. Articles published from January 1, 1995, to July 1, 2009, were included in the review if they measured central pressure using radial artery applanation tonometry.

Methylation is one of the major epigenetic processes pivotal to our understanding of carcinogenesis. It is now widely accepted that there is a relationship between DNA methylation, chromatin structure, and human malignancies. DNA methylation is potentially an important clinical marker in cancer molecular diagnostics. Understanding epigenetic modifications in their biological context involves several aspects of DNA methylation analysis. These aspects include the de novo discovery of differentially methylated genes, the analysis of methylation patterns, and the determination of differences in the degree of methylation. Here we present a previously uncharacterized method for high-throughput DNA methylation analysis that utilizes MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry (MS) analysis of base-specifically cleaved amplification products. We use the IGF2/H19 region to show that a single base-specific cleavage reaction is sufficient to discover methylation sites and to determine methylation ratios within a selected target region. A combination of cleavage reactions enables the complete evaluation of all relevant aspects of DNA methylation, with most CpGs represented in multiple reactions. We successfully applied this technology under high-throughput conditions to quantitatively assess methylation differences between normal and neoplastic lung cancer tissue samples from 48 patients in 47 genes and demonstrate that the quantitative methylation results allow accurate classification of samples according to their histopathology.

Background Determining which target to pursue is a challenging and error-prone first step in developing a therapeutic treatment for a disease, where missteps are potentially very costly given the long-time frames and high expenses of drug development. With current informatics technology and machine learning algorithms, it is now possible to computationally discover therapeutic hypotheses by predicting clinically promising drug targets based on the evidence associating drug targets with disease indications. We have collected this evidence from Open Targets and additional databases that covers 17 sources of evidence for target-indication association and represented the data as a tensor of 21,437 × 2211 × 17. Results As a proof-of-concept, we identified examples of successes and failures of target-indication pairs in clinical trials across 875 targets and 574 disease indications to build a gold-standard data set of 6140 known clinical outcomes. We designed and executed three benchmarking strategies to examine the performance of multiple machine learning models: Logistic Regression, LASSO, Random Forest, Tensor Factorization and Gradient Boosting Machine. With 10-fold cross-validation, tensor factorization achieved AUROC = 0.82 ± 0.02 and AUPRC = 0.71 ± 0.03. Across multiple validation schemes, this was comparable or better than other methods. Conclusion In this work, we benchmarked a machine learning technique called tensor factorization for the problem of predicting clinical outcomes of therapeutic hypotheses. Results have shown that this method can achieve equal or better prediction performance compared with a variety of baseline models. We demonstrate one application of the method to predict outcomes of trials on novel indications of approved drug targets. This work can be expanded to targets and indications that have never been clinically tested and proposing novel target-indication hypotheses. Our proposed biologically-motivated cross-validation schemes provide insight into the robustness of the prediction performance. This has significant implications for all future methods that try to address this seminal problem in drug discovery.