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Data scarcity and unavailability of observed rainfalls in the northeastern states of India limit prediction of extreme hydro-climatological changes. To fill this gap, a data assimilation approach has been applied to re-construct accurate high-resolution gridded (5 km2) daily rainfall data (2001–2020), which include seasonality assessment, statistical evaluation, and bias correction. Random forest (RF) and support vector regression were used to predict rainfall time series, and a comparison between machine learning and data assimilation-based gridded rainfall data was performed. Five gridded rainfall datasets, namely, Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) (12 km2), APHRODITE (25 km2), India Meteorological Department (25 km2), PRINCETON (25 km2), and CHIRPS (25 and 5 km2), have been utilized. For re-constructed rainfall datasets (5 km2), the comparative seasonality and change assessment have been performed with respect to other rainfall datasets. CHIRPS and APHRODITE datasets have shown better similarities with IMDAA. The RF and assimilated rainfall (AR) have superiority based on bias and extremity, and AR data were recognized as the best accurate data (>0.8). Precipitation change analysis (2021–2100) performed utilizing the bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP6 datasets showed that the dry spells will be enhanced. Considering the CMIP6 moderate emission scenario, i.e., SSP245, the wet spell will be enhanced in future; however, when considering SSP585 (representing the extreme worst case), the wet spells will be decreased.

Rainfall is the key weather element which regulates the hydrological cycle, availability of water resources and crop production. In this study, spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has been investigated on seasonal and annual time scales of the 149 blocks of Chhattisgarh State using 120 years (1901–2020) of rainfall data. Non-parametric, and Theil and Sen's slope estimator were used to identify possible trends and ascertain the variability in the magnitude. The results revealed that there exists a well-marked spatial variability in rainfall over Chhattisgarh on annual and seasonal time scales. Out of 149 blocks, a significant negative rainfall was noticed in 105 blocks. Annual rainfall showed a significant positive trend in a few blocks like Bhopalpattnam, Bijapur, Usur, and Konta. A similar pattern of trend was noticed in the monsoon season. The results of the study demand the urgent need to formulate policies and strategies for water resource management and planning. The blocks which showed the positive rainfall trends can be identified to intensify the cultivation of more water-requiring crops based on the suitability for that region. The findings of this study can be used as valuable information for crop planning, policy-making and preparation of contingency plans.

Availability of global satellite based Soil Moisture (SM) data has promoted the emergence of many applications in climate studies, agricultural water resource management and hydrology. In this context, validation of the global data set is of substance. Remote sensing measurements which are representative of an area covering 100 m2 to tens of km2 rarely match with in situ SM measurements at point scale due to scale difference. In this paper we present the new Indian Cosmic Ray Network (ICON) and compare it’s data with remotely sensed SM at different depths. ICON is the first network in India of the kind. It is operational since 2016 and consist of seven sites equipped with the COSMOS instrument. This instrument is based on the Cosmic Ray Neutron Probe (CRNP) technique which uses non-invasive neutron counts as a measure of soil moisture. It provides in situ measurements over an area with a radius of 150–250 m. This intermediate scale soil moisture is of interest for the validation of satellite SM. We compare the COSMOS derived soil moisture to surface soil moisture (SSM) and root zone soil moisture (RZSM) derived from SMOS, SMAP and GLDAS_Noah. The comparison with surface soil moisture products yield that the SMAP_L4_SSM showed best performance over all the sites with correlation (R) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.90. RZSM on the other hand from all products showed lesser performances. RZSM for GLDAS and SMAP_L4 products show that the results are better for the top layer R = 0.75 to 0.89 and 0.75 to 0.90 respectively than the deeper layers R = 0.26 to 0.92 and 0.6 to 0.8 respectively in all sites in India. The ICON network will be a useful tool for the calibration and validation activities for future SM missions like the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR).

Optimal use of scarce water resources is the prime objective for water resources development projects in the developing country like India. Optimal releases have been generally expressed as a function of reservoir state variables and hydrologic inputs by a relationship which ultimately allows the policy/water managers to determine the water to be released as a function of available information. Optimal releases were obtained by using optimal control theory with inflow series and revised reservoir characteristics such as elevation area capacity table, zero elevation level as input in this study. Operating rules for reservoir were developed as a function of demand, water level and inflow. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with back propagation algorithm, Fuzzy Logic and decision tree algorithms such as M5 and REPTree were used for deriving the operating rules using the optimal releases for an irrigation and power supply reservoir, located in northern India. It was found that fuzzy logic model performed well compared to other soft computing techniques such as ANN, M5P and REPTree investigated in this study.