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Among 843,208 participants in Israel who were 50 years of age or older and had received two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine at least 5 months earlier, those who received a booster had 90% lower mortality due to Covid-19 than those who did not receive a booster. The study period was 54 days; adverse effects were not recorded.

The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is highly effective against SARS-CoV-2. However, apprehension exists that variants of concern (VOCs) may evade vaccine protection, due to evidence of reduced neutralization of the VOCs B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 by vaccine sera in laboratory assays. We performed a matched cohort study to examine the distribution of VOCs in infections of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccinees from Clalit Health Services (Israel) using viral genomic sequencing, and hypothesized that if vaccine effectiveness against a VOC is reduced, its proportion among breakthrough cases would be higher than in unvaccinated controls. Analyzing 813 viral genome sequences from nasopharyngeal swabs, we showed that vaccinees who tested positive at least 7 days after the second dose were disproportionally infected with B.1.351, compared with controls. Those who tested positive between 2 weeks after the first dose and 6 days after the second dose were disproportionally infected by B.1.1.7. These findings suggest reduced vaccine effectiveness against both VOCs within particular time windows. Our results emphasize the importance of rigorously tracking viral variants, and of increasing vaccination to prevent the spread of VOCs. At early time points after vaccination with a single dose or two doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections can be disproportionately caused by the B.1.1.7 or B.1.351 variants of concern, underlining the need to ensure rapid and complete vaccination.

Among more than 1.7 million persons, BNT162b2 vaccination was associated with increased risks of myocarditis (risk ratio, 3.24), lymphadenopathy, appendicitis, and herpes zoster infection; in comparison, Covid-19 increased the risks of myocarditis (risk ratio, 18.28), pericarditis, arrhythmia, deep-vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and thrombocytopenia.

The rapid emergence of the B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of SARS-CoV-2 led to a global resurgence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Israeli authorities approved a fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose (second booster) for individuals aged 60 years and over who had received a first booster dose 4 or more months earlier. Evidence for the effectiveness of a second booster dose in reducing hospitalizations and mortality due to COVID-19 is warranted. This retrospective cohort study included all members of Clalit Health Services who were aged 60–100 years and who were eligible for the second booster on 3 January 2022. Hospitalizations and mortality due to COVID-19 in participants who received the second booster were compared with those for participants who received one booster dose. Cox proportional hazards regression models with time-dependent covariates were used to estimate the association between the second booster and hospitalization and death due to COVID-19 while adjusting for demographic factors and coexisting illnesses. A total of 563,465 participants met the eligibility criteria. Of those, 328,597 (58%) received a second booster dose during the 40 day study period. Hospitalization due to COVID-19 occurred in 270 of the second-booster recipients and in 550 participants who received one booster dose (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.36; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.31–0.43). Death due to COVID-19 occurred in 92 second-booster recipients and in 232 participants who received one booster dose (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.22; 95% CI: 0.17–0.28). This study demonstrates a substantial reduction in hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19 conferred by a second booster in Israeli adults aged 60 years and over. A retrospective analysis of data from a large healthcare insurance provider in Israel shows that a second booster shot (fourth dose) of BNT162b2 in people aged 60 years and over results in a substantial reduction in hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19.

At the COVID-19 pandemic onset, when individual-level data of COVID-19 patients were not yet available, there was already a need for risk predictors to support prevention and treatment decisions. Here, we report a hybrid strategy to create such a predictor, combining the development of a baseline severe respiratory infection risk predictor and a post-processing method to calibrate the predictions to reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates. With the accumulation of a COVID-19 patient cohort, this predictor is validated to have good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.943) and calibration (markedly improved compared to that of the baseline predictor). At a 5% risk threshold, 15% of patients are marked as high-risk, achieving a sensitivity of 88%. We thus demonstrate that even at the onset of a pandemic, shrouded in epidemiologic fog of war, it is possible to provide a useful risk predictor, now widely used in a large healthcare organization. Identification of individuals at risk of severe COVID-19 disease could inform treatment and public health planning. Here, the authors develop and validate a risk prediction model for COVID-19 mortality in Israel by building a model for severe respiratory infection and recalibrating it using COVID-19 case fatality rates.

In a retrospective cohort study from Israel, 149,032 patients who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection were followed over a 270-day period to assess the rate of reinfection according to whether they had subsequently received a Covid-19 vaccine or had remained unvaccinated. The reinfection rate was 10.21 cases per 100,000 persons per day among unvaccinated patients and 2.46 cases among vaccinated patients.

In late 2022, the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) BA.5 sublineage accounted for most of the sequenced viral genomes worldwide. Bivalent mRNA vaccines contain an ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain component plus an updated component of the omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sublineages. Since September, 2022, a single bivalent mRNA vaccine booster dose has been recommended for adults who have completed a primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination series and are at high risk of severe COVID-19. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a bivalent mRNA vaccine booster dose to reduce hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID-19. We did a retrospective, population-based, cohort study in Israel, using data from electronic medical records in Clalit Health Services (CHS). We included all members of CHS who were aged 65 years or older and eligible for a bivalent mRNA COVID-19 booster vaccination. We used hospital records to identify COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths. The primary endpoint was hospitalisation due to COVID-19, which we compared between participants who received a bivalent mRNA booster vaccination and those who did not. A Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent covariates was used to estimate the association between the bivalent vaccine and hospitalisation due to COVID-19 while adjusting for demographic factors and coexisting illnesses. Between Sept 27, 2022, and Jan 25, 2023, 569 519 eligible participants were identified. Of those, 134 215 (24%) participants received a bivalent mRNA booster vaccination during the study period. Hospitalisation due to COVID-19 occurred in 32 participants who received a bivalent mRNA booster vaccination and 541 who did not receive a bivalent booster vaccination (adjusted hazard ratio 0·28, 95% CI 0·19–0·40). The absolute risk reduction for hospitalisations due to COVID-19 in bivalent mRNA booster recipients versus non-recipients was 0·089% (95% CI 0·075–0·101), and the number needed to vaccinate to prevent one hospitalisation due to COVID-19 was 1118 people (95% CI 993–1341). Participants who received a bivalent mRNA booster vaccine dose had lower rates of hospitalisation due to COVID-19 than participants who did not receive a bivalent booster vaccination, for up to 120 days after vaccination. These findings highlight the importance of bivalent mRNA booster vaccination in populations at high risk of severe COVID-19. Further studies with longer observation times are warranted. None.

The recent global outbreak of the monkeypox (mpox) virus in humans was declared a public health emergency by the World Health Organization in July 2022. The smallpox and mpox vaccine (JYNNEOS; Modified Vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic; MVA-BN), provided as a two-dose regimen, is currently the primary vaccine utilized against mpox. However, the efficacy of MVA-BN against mpox has never been demonstrated in clinical trials to date. Due to the limited supply of vaccines, the World Health Organization has recommended prioritizing the vaccination of high-risk groups. We evaluated the real-world effectiveness of a single, subcutaneous dose of MVA-BN in this observational, retrospective cohort study, which included the analysis of electronic health records of all members of Clalit Health Services eligible for the vaccine on 31 July 2022. We used a Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent covariates to estimate the association between vaccination and mpox while adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical risk factors. In an analysis of 2,054 male individuals who met vaccine eligibility criteria, 1,037 (50%) were vaccinated during the study recruitment period and completed at least 90 d of follow-up. During the study period, 5 and 16 infections were confirmed in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, respectively. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness was estimated at 86% (95% confidence interval, 59–95%). Our results suggest that a single dose of subcutaneous MVA-BN in this high-risk cohort is associated with a significantly lower risk of MPXV infection. Effectiveness of one subcutaneous dose of MVA-BN, the smallpox and mpox vaccine, was estimated to be 86% in a cohort of vaccine-eligible males in Israel, supporting its use to curtail the outbreak of mpox virus.

Two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine were associated mainly with low-grade local adverse effects that lasted 2 days or less and afforded nearly 50% protection against omicron infection and symptomatic illness, which was lower than that seen against delta. Greater protection in the youngest group was noted.

With the COVID-19 pandemic ongoing, accurate assessment of population immunity and the effectiveness of booster and enhancer vaccine doses is critical. We compare COVID-19-related hospitalization incidence rates in 2,412,755 individuals across four exposure levels: non-recent vaccine immunity (two BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine doses five or more months prior), boosted vaccine immunity (three BNT162b2 doses), infection-induced immunity (previous COVID-19 without a subsequent BNT162b2 dose), and enhanced infection-induced immunity (previous COVID-19 with a subsequent BNT162b2 dose). Rates, adjusted for potential demographic, clinical and health-seeking-behavior confounders, were assessed from July-November 2021 when the Delta variant was predominant. Compared with non-recent vaccine immunity, COVID-19-related hospitalization incidence rates were reduced by 89% (87–91%) for boosted vaccine immunity, 66% (50–77%) for infection-induced immunity and 75% (61–83%) for enhanced infection-induced immunity. We demonstrate that infection-induced immunity (enhanced or not) provides more protection against COVID-19-related hospitalization than non-recent vaccine immunity, but less protection than booster vaccination. Additionally, our results suggest that vaccinating individuals with infection-induced immunity further enhances their protection. The relative degree of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 provided by combinations of natural infection, vaccination, and booster doses is unknown. Here, the authors show that infection-induced immunity provides more protection against COVID-19-related hospitalization than non-recent vaccine immunity, but less than booster vaccination.