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Globally in 2016, 1.7 million people died of Tuberculosis (TB). This study aimed to estimate all-cause mortality rate, identify features associated with mortality and describe trend in mortality rate from treatment initiation. A 5-year (2012-2016) retrospective analysis of electronic TB surveillance data from Kilifi County, Kenya. The outcome was all-cause mortality within 180 days after starting TB treatment. The risk factors examined were demographic and clinical features at the time of starting anti-TB treatment. We performed survival analysis with time at risk defined from day of starting TB treatment to time of death, lost-to-follow-up or completing treatment. To account for 'lost-to-follow-up' we used competing risk analysis method to examine risk factors for all-cause mortality. 10,717 patients receiving TB treatment, median (IQR) age 33 (24-45) years were analyzed; 3,163 (30%) were HIV infected. Overall, 585 (5.5%) patients died; mortality rate of 12.2 (95% CI 11.3-13.3) deaths per 100 person-years (PY). Mortality rate increased from 7.8 (95% CI 6.4-9.5) in 2012 to 17.7 (95% CI 14.9-21.1) in 2016 per 100PY (Ptrend<0.0001). 449/585 (77%) of the deaths occurred within the first three months after starting TB treatment. The median time to death (IQR) declined from 87 (40-100) days in 2012 to 46 (18-83) days in 2016 (Ptrend = 0·04). Mortality rate per 100PY was 7.3 (95% CI 6.5-7.8) and 23.1 (95% CI 20.8-25.7) among HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected patients respectively. Age, being a female, extrapulmonary TB, being undernourished, HIV infected and year of diagnosis were significantly associated with mortality. We found most deaths occurred within three months and an increasing mortality rate during the time under review among patients on TB treatment. Our results therefore warrant further investigation to explore host, disease or health system factors that may explain this trend.

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), child mortality rates remain substantially higher compared to high-income countries, with many deaths preventable through early recognition of deterioration. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated predictive values of vital signs and anthropometric measurements for paediatric in-hospital mortality in LMICs. A search of publicly available data in PubMed and OVID Embase was conducted in November 2021 and last updated in March 2025. Studies that reported on oxygen saturation; respiratory rate; heart rate; blood pressure; temperature; mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC); and/or weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), and paediatric in-hospital mortality were included. Neonatal and paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) studies were excluded. Data was extracted by two independent authors. Forest plots presented odds ratios (OR) using random effect models. Newcastle Ottawa Scale assessed risk of bias. 104 out of 21,494 yielded studies were included in descriptive analysis and 75 in meta-analysis, encompassing 255,546 children. Associations with in-hospital mortality were observed in hypoxaemia (OR 5.53, 95% CI 4.18-7.30), tachypnoea (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.16-2.34), tachycardia (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.22-2.66), bradycardia (OR 3.29, 95% CI 1.38-7.83), hypotension (OR 4.42, 95% CI 2.54-7.70), hyperthermia (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.04-1.66), hypothermia (OR 3.92, 95% CI 2.76-5.58), low MUAC (OR 3.22, 95% CI 2.12-4.91), and low WHZ (OR 3.19, 95% CI 2.47-4.11). Several vital signs and anthropometric measurements are strongly associated with in-hospital mortality in children. Hypoxaemia demonstrated the highest odds of mortality, followed by hypotension, hypothermia, bradycardia and severe malnutrition. These findings highlight the need for early recognition and targeted interventions for children presenting with these high-risk signs, to improve outcomes in resource-limited settings and stress the need to monitor vital signs. None.

The World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for diagnosing and treating Tuberculosis (TB) includes clinical signs, therefore not requiring bacteriological laboratory confirmation. In resource-limited settings, including Kenya, this empirical TB treatment is routine practice however limited data exist on patient clinical outcomes when comparing the method of diagnosis. We evaluated TB treatment outcomes comparing clinically diagnosed and bacteriologically confirmed TB, 6 months after starting treatment of TB in a rural county in Kenya. Our analysis compared patients with a clinical versus a bacteriologically confirmed TB diagnosis. In this retrospective analysis, we included all adults (≥ 18 years) starting treatment of TB and followed up for 6 months, within the County TB surveillance database from 2012 to 2018. Patients included from both public and private facilities. The TB treatment outcomes assessed included treatment success, treatment failure, death, defaulted and transferred out. We used survival regression models to assess effect of type of diagnosis on TB treatment outcome defining time at risk from date of starting treatment to experiencing one of the treatment outcomes or completing 6-months of treatment. A total of 12,856 patients; median age 37 [IQR 28 − 50] years were included. 7639 (59%) were male while 11,339 (88%) were pulmonary TB cases. Overall, 11,633 (90%) were given first-line TB treatment and 3791 (29%) were HIV infected. 6472 (50%) of the patients were clinically diagnosed of whom 4521/6472 (70%) had a negative sputum/GeneXpert test. During the study 5565 person-years (PYs) observed, treatment success was 82% and 83% amongst clinically and bacteriologically diagnosed patients (P = 0.05). There were no significant differences in defaulting (P = 0.70) or transfer out (P = 0.19) between clinically and bacteriologically diagnosed patients. Mortality was significantly higher among clinically diagnosed patients: 639 (9.9%) deaths compared to 285 (4.5%) amongst the bacteriologically diagnosed patients; aHR 5.16 (95%CI 2.17 − 12.3) P < 0.001. Our study suggests survival during empirical TB treatment is significantly lower compared to patients with laboratory evidence, irrespective of HIV status and age. To improve TB treatment outcomes amongst clinically diagnosed patients, we recommend systematic screening for comorbidities, prompt diagnosis and management of other infections.

Background Although tuberculosis (TB) patients coinfected with HIV are at risk of poor treatment outcomes, there is paucity of data on changing trends of TB/HIV co-infection and their treatment outcomes. This study aims to estimate the burden of TB/HIV co-infection over time, describe the treatment available to TB/HIV patients and estimate the effect of TB/HIV co-infection on TB treatment outcomes. Methods This was a retrospective data analyses from TB surveillance in two counties in Kenya (Nyeri and Kilifi): 2012‒2020. All TB patients aged ≥ 18 years were included. The main exposure was HIV status categorised as infected, negative or unknown status. World Health Organization TB treatment outcomes were explored; cured, treatment complete, failed treatment, defaulted/lost-to-follow-up, died and transferred out. Time at risk was from date of starting TB treatment to six months later/date of the event and Cox proportion with shared frailties models were used to estimate effects of TB/HIV co-infection on TB treatment outcomes. Results The study includes 27,285 patients, median (IQR) 37 (29‒49) years old and 64% male. 23,986 (88%) were new TB cases and 91% were started on 2RHZE/4RH anti-TB regimen. Overall, 7879 (29%, 95% 28‒30%) were HIV infected. The proportion of HIV infected patient was 32% in 2012 and declined to 24% in 2020 (trend P -value = 0.01). Uptake of ARTs (95%) and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis (99%) was high. Overall, 84% patients completed six months TB treatment, 2084 (7.6%) died, 4.3% LTFU, 0.9% treatment failure and 2.8% transferred out. HIV status was associated with lower odds of completing TB treatment: infected Vs negative (aOR 0.56 (95%CI 0.52‒0.61) and unknown vs negative (aOR 0.57 (95%CI 0.44‒0.73). Both HIV infected and unknown status were associated with higher hazard of death: (aHR 2.40 (95%CI 2.18‒2.63) and 1.93 (95%CI 1.44‒2.56)) respectively and defaulting treatment/LTFU: aHR 1.16 (95%CI 1.01‒1.32) and 1.55 (95%CI 1.02‒2.35)) respectively. HIV status had no effect on hazard of transferring out and treatment failure. Conclusion The overall burden of TB/HIV coinfection was within previous pooled estimate. Our findings support the need for systematic HIV testing as those with unknown status had similar TB treatment outcomes as the HIV infected.

Objectives To construct growth curves for mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC)-for-age z score for 5-19 year olds that accord with the World Health Organization growth standards, and to evaluate their discriminatory performance for subsequent mortality.Design Growth curve construction and longitudinal cohort study.Setting United States and international growth data, and cohorts in Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.Participants The Health Examination Survey (HES)/National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) US population datasets (age 5-25 years), which were used to construct the 2007 WHO growth reference for body mass index in this age group, were merged with an imputed dataset matching the distribution of the WHO 2006 growth standards age 2-6 years. Validation data were from 685 HIV infected children aged 5-17 years participating in the Antiretroviral Research for Watoto (ARROW) trial in Uganda and Zimbabwe; and 1741 children aged 5-13 years discharged from a rural Kenyan hospital (3.8% HIV infected). Both cohorts were followed-up for survival during one year.Main outcome measures Concordance with WHO 2006 growth standards at age 60 months and survival during one year according to MUAC-for-age and body mass index-for-age z scores.Results The new growth curves transitioned smoothly with WHO growth standards at age 5 years. MUAC-for-age z scores of −2 to −3 and less than−3, compared with −2 or more, was associated with hazard ratios for death within one year of 3.63 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 14.7; P=0.07) and 11.1 (3.40 to 36.0; P<0.001), respectively, among ARROW trial participants; and 2.22 (1.01 to 4.9; P=0.04) and 5.15 (2.49 to 10.7; P<0.001), respectively, among Kenyan children after discharge from hospital. The AUCs for MUAC-for-age and body mass index-for-age z scores for discriminating subsequent mortality were 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.92) and 0.75 (0.63 to 0.86) in the ARROW trial (absolute difference 0.06, 95% confidence interval −0.032 to 0.16; P=0.2) and 0.73 (0.65 to 0.80) and 0.58 (0.49 to 0.67), respectively, in Kenya (absolute difference in AUC 0.15, 0.07 to 0.23; P=0.0002).Conclusions The MUAC-for-age z score is at least as effective as the body mass index-for-age z score for assessing mortality risks associated with undernutrition among African school aged children and adolescents. MUAC can provide simplified screening and diagnosis within nutrition and HIV programmes, and in research.

Background Children with complicated severe malnutrition (CSM) face high mortality after hospital discharge, yet the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. While early post-discharge mortality (< 2 months) has been linked to a sepsis-like inflammatory profile measured at discharge, it is unclear whether this relationship persists (later mortality; 2–6 months post-discharge). This study investigated whether immune, inflammatory, and endothelial dysfunction at 2 months post-discharge are associated with later mortality in children recovering from CSM. Methods We conducted a case–control study nested within a randomised placebo-controlled trial of daily co-trimoxazole in HIV-negative children aged 2–59 months with CSM in four Kenyan hospitals. Cases were children who died between 2 and 6 months post-discharge; controls were survivors frequency-matched by sex, site, and trial arm. Plasma cytokines, chemokines, endothelial markers, and untargeted proteomics were measured at discharge and 2 months post-discharge. Conditional Cox regression, adjusted for age, sex, site, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), and randomisation arm, was used to identify biomarkers associated with later mortality. Results Cases were younger (had a median of 7 vs. 11 months), had longer hospital stays (14 vs. 10 days), and showed lower anthropometry (MUAC = 10.7 vs. 12.0 cm) and lower haemoglobin (9.7 vs. 10.6 g/dL) at 2 months post-discharge (all p  < 0.05). Mortality 2–6 months post-discharge was associated with elevated inflammatory mediators (e.g. IL-10 [hazard ratio, HR: 1.47, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.00–2.14], IL-15 [1.65, 95% CI: 1.08–2.51], IFN-α2 [1.51, 95% CI: 1.02–2.23]), acute phase proteins, apolipoproteins and coagulation markers, including fibrinogen, histidine-rich glycoprotein (1.40, 95% CI: 1.01–1.94), protein C inhibitor (SERPINA5, 1.50, 95% CI: 1.07–2.08), SERPINA10 (1.42, 95% CI: 1.02–1.99), and ADAMTS13 (0.41, 95% CI: 0.24–0.70). Additionally, cardiovascular and muscle-related proteins such as angiotensinogen (1.46, 95% CI: 1.03–2.08), α- and β-tropomyosin (0.68, 95% CI: 0.48–0.98), PI16 (0.72, 95% CI:0.54–0.97), and zyxin (0.61, 95% CI: 0.40–0.92) were elevated in cases. Conclusions Later mortality in children recovering from CSM is associated with persistent immune activation, a sepsis-like phenotype involving multiple systems. These findings suggest that children at risk of later mortality may benefit from biomarker-guided interventions initiated at discharge.

Management of undernourished children depends only on wasting yet it can coexist with underweight and/or stunting. Among children admitted to hospital with acute illness, we determined the proportion with wasting coexisting with underweight and/or stunting and their risk factors. A retrospective review of hospital records of children 6‒59 months old admitted at Garissa County referral hospital, Kenya, from January 2017 to December 2019 was conducted. Using World Health Organization 2006 growth standards, undernutrition were defined: wasting as Weight‐for‐height Z‐score < −2, stunting Height‐for‐age Z‐score < −2 and underweight Weight‐for‐age Z‐score < −2. We studied wasting coexisting with underweight and/or stunting. Among 624 children recruited, 347 (56%) were males and 511 (82%) <24 months old. Diarrhoea 210 (34%) and pallor/anaemia 310 (50%) were the most frequent admission diagnosis. HIV infection was present among 8 (1.3%) children. Wasting, underweight and stunting were present among 595 (95%), 518 (83%) and 176 (28%) children respectively. 161 (26%), 506 (81%) and 161 (26%) children had wasting coexisting with stunting, underweight and both stunting and underweight respectively. In the multivariable regression, diarrhoea was positively associated with wasting coexisting with stunting (adjusted risk ratio [aRR = 2.96] [95% CI = 2.06‒4.23]) and anaemia with wasting coexisting with underweight (aRR = 1.23) (95% CI = 1.03‒1.47). Overall, 343 (55%) children were discharged alive, 67 (11%) absconded from the wards, 164 (26%) were transferred to another hospital and 50 (8.0%) died before discharge. The risk of inpatient death was 10.3%, 7.9%, 8.4% and 6.8% among children not wasted, wasted only, wasted & underweight, and wasted and underweight and stunted respectively (Chi‐square p = 0.60). The study reports an unacceptably high levels of undernourishment, including coexisting forms of undernutrition among hospitalised children. This highlights a public health priority for current nutrition therapeutic care and need of continuity of care among those children discharged alive in the community‐based management of acute malnutrition programmes. In this population of hospitalised children, we found critically high levels of wasting and underweight. The most frequent form of undernutrition coexistence was wasting and underweight. Early detection and effective treatment of hospitalised children with coexisting forms of undernutrition deserves more attention in the current nutrition therapeutic care and those discharged alive linked with community‐based management of acute malnutrition programmes. Key messages In this population of hospitalised children, we found critically high levels of wasting and underweight. The most frequent form of undernutrition coexistence was wasting and underweight. Early detection and effective treatment of hospitalised children with coexisting forms of undernutrition (CFU) deserves more attention in the current nutrition therapeutic treatment programmes. Routine reporting of CFU in hospital settings should be encouraged. Future research to increase our understanding of its mechanism and need for robust interventions should be prioritised.

BackgroundDetection of meningitis is essential to optimise the duration and choice of antimicrobial agents to limit mortality and sequelae. In low and middle-income countries most health facilities lack laboratory capacity and rely on clinical features to empirically treat meningitis.ObjectiveWe conducted a diagnostic validation study to investigate the performance of clinical features (fever, convulsions, irritability, bulging fontanel and temperature ≥39°C) and WHO-recommended signs (drowsiness, lethargy, unconsciousness, convulsions, bulging fontanel, irritability or a high-pitched cry) in discriminating meningitis in young infants.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingKilifi County Hospital.PatientsInfants aged <60 days hospitalised between 2012 and 2016.Main outcome measureDefinite meningitis defined as positive cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture, microscopy or antigen test, or leucocytes ≥0.05 x 10∧9/L.ResultsOf 4809 infants aged <60 days included, 81 (1.7%) had definite meningitis. WHO-recommended signs had sensitivity of 58% (95% CI 47% to 69%) and specificity of 57% (95% CI 56% to 59%) for definite meningitis. Addition of history of fever improved sensitivity to 89% (95% CI 80% to 95%) but reduced specificity to 26% (95% CI 25% to 27%). Presence of ≥1 of 5 previously identified signs had sensitivity of 79% (95% CI 69% to 87%) and specificity of 51% (95% CI 50% to 53%).ConclusionsDespite a lower prevalence of definite meningitis, the performance of previously identified signs at admission in predicting meningitis was unchanged. Presence of history of fever improves the sensitivity of WHO-recommended signs but loses specificity. Careful evaluation, repeated assessment and capacity for lumbar puncture and CSF microscopy to exclude meningitis in most young infants with potential signs are essential to management in this age group.

BackgroundOesophageal cancer (EC) is a common cause of cancer mortality. Evidence on the burden, risk factors and treatment outcomes is limited in low-income and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe the features of EC cases and determine associated factors among patients attending surgical and oncology clinics in Garissa County Referral Hospital (GCRH).MethodsWe conducted a case–control study in which cases were patients with EC and positive histological confirmation and controls were patients admitted to GCRH for other diseases. Data on exposures were extracted from patient files. Data on tobacco and alcohol use were based on current or past use as documented in the records; hot tea intake referred to habitual consumption. Mixed-effect logistic regression model was used to determine EC-associated factors.Results141 cases and 282 controls were recruited. Of the 141 cases, 59 (42%) had cancer in the lower third of the oesophagus, whereas 72 (51%) and 10 (7%) had cancers in the middle and upper thirds, respectively. EC was associated with tobacco use (adjusted OR (AOR), 21.02, 95% CI 5.41 to 81.69), consumption of hot tea (AOR 59.87, 95% CI 5.45 to 657.35), chewing khat (miraa, AOR 9.94, 95% CI 3.59 to 27.52), gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD) (AOR 54.12, 95% CI 24.48 to 119.62), gastritis (AOR 17.89, 95% CI 2.94 to 108.989) and peptic ulcer disease (PUD) (AOR 69.31, 95% CI 14.09 to 340.9). Among the case group, 95 (65%) had surgery or gastrostomy tube placement as treatments for EC.ConclusionThe study findings highlight modifiable risk factors for EC, including tobacco use, hot tea consumption, chewing miraa, GERD, gastritis and PUD. Targeted screening of high-risk patients may improve early detection and outcomes.

Background Although mortality risk associated with HIV is well described, HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) young children are also at increased risk of hospitalization and death as compared to HIV-unexposed uninfected (HUU) children. The drivers of poor outcomes among HEU children remain unknown, limiting the development of interventions to support this vulnerable population. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of data from a large multi-country prospective cohort [Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network] study. Data from 5 sites in Uganda, Kenya, and Malawi were included. Hospitalized children aged 2–23 months were followed from an index admission for 6 months after discharge to determine acute and long-term outcomes. Using perinatal HIV exposure (HEU and HUU) as the primary exposure and adjusting for child, caregiver, and household characteristics, we compared inpatient and 30-day survival outcomes, nutritional status, hospital length of stay, illness severity, and utilization of inpatient resources. Results We included 1486 children: 217 HEU and 1269 HUU. HEU children had an increased risk of mortality both during hospitalization [adjusted OR 1.96, 95% CI (1.14–3.37)] and in the 30 days following hospital admission [adjusted hazard ratio 2.20, 95% CI (1.10–4.42)]. Wasting and stunting were more frequent in HEU than HUU children, with adjusted OR 1.41, 95% CI (1.03–1.95) and adjusted OR 1.91, 95% CI (1.34–2.70), respectively. HEU children were also more likely to have a prolonged hospital stay compared to HUU children [adjusted OR 1.58, 95% CI (1.08–2.29)], although admission diagnoses, illness severity at admission, and use of inpatient resources (supplemental oxygen, nasogastric tube, and second-line antibiotics) did not differ significantly between groups. Conclusions HEU children are more likely to die during hospitalization and within 30 days of admission, to be wasted and stunted upon hospital admission, and to require a prolonged hospital stay, as compared to HUU children. Hospitals in settings with a high prevalence of women-living-with-HIV should ensure that maternal HIV status is established among children requiring admission and build capacity to provide additional hospital monitoring and early post-discharge support for HEU children.