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result(s) for
"Nicholls, Harrison"
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Distinguishing Oceans of Water from Magma on Mini-Neptune K2-18b
by
Bower, Dan J
,
Nicholls, Harrison
,
Lichtenberg, Tim
in
Ammonia
,
Atmospheric chemistry
,
Carbon dioxide
2024
Mildly irradiated mini-Neptunes have densities potentially consistent with them hosting substantial liquid-water oceans (“Hycean” planets). The presence of CO2 and simultaneous absence of ammonia (NH3) in their atmospheres has been proposed as a fingerprint of such worlds. JWST observations of K2-18b, the archetypal Hycean, have found the presence of CO2 and the depletion of NH3 to <100 ppm; hence, it has been inferred that this planet may host liquid-water oceans. In contrast, climate modeling suggests that many of these mini-Neptunes, including K2-18b, may likely be too hot to host liquid water. We propose a solution to this discrepancy between observation and climate modeling by investigating the effect of a magma ocean on the atmospheric chemistry of mini-Neptunes. We demonstrate that atmospheric NH3 depletion is a natural consequence of the high solubility of nitrogen species in magma at reducing conditions; precisely the conditions prevailing where a thick hydrogen envelope is in communication with a molten planetary surface. The magma ocean model reproduces the present JWST spectrum of K2-18b to ≲3σ, suggesting this is as credible an explanation for current observations as the planet hosting a liquid-water ocean. Spectral areas that could be used to rule out the magma ocean model include the >4 μm region, where CO2 and CO features dominate: magma ocean models suggest a systematically lower CO2/CO ratio than estimated from free-chemistry retrieval, indicating that deeper observations of this spectral region may be able to distinguish between oceans of liquid water and magma on mini-Neptunes.
Journal Article
Absence of a Runaway Greenhouse Limit on Lava Planets
by
Boer, Iris D
,
Nicholls, Harrison
,
Lichtenberg, Tim
in
Atmosphere
,
Atmospheric composition
,
Atmospheric models
2025
Climate transitions on exoplanets offer valuable insights into the atmospheric processes governing planetary habitability. Previous pure-steam atmospheric models show a thermal limit in outgoing long-wave radiation, which has been used to define the inner edge of the classical habitable zone and guide exoplanet surveys aiming to identify and characterize potentially habitable worlds. We expand upon previous modelling by treating (i) the dissolution of volatiles into a magma ocean underneath the atmosphere, (ii) a broader volatile range of the atmospheric composition including H2O, CO2, CO, H2, CH4, and N2, and (iii) a surface-temperature- and mantle-redox-dependent equilibrium chemistry. We find that multicomponent atmospheres of outgassed composition located above partially or fully molten mantles do not exhibit the characteristic thermal radiation limit that arises from pure-steam models, thereby undermining the canonical concept of a runaway greenhouse limit, and hence challenging the conventional approach of using it to define an irradiation-based habitable zone. Our results show that atmospheric heat loss to space is strongly dependent on the oxidation and melting state of the underlying planetary mantle, through their significant influence on the atmosphere’s equilibrium composition. This suggests an evolutionary hysteresis in climate scenarios: Initially molten and cooling planets do not converge to the same climate regime as solidified planets that heat up by external irradiation. Steady-state models cannot recover evolutionary climate transitions, which instead require self-consistent models of the temporal evolution of the coupled feedback processes between interior and atmosphere over geologic time.
Journal Article
Reliable Detections of Atmospheres on Rocky Exoplanets with Photometric JWST Phase Curves
2025
The prevalence of atmospheres on rocky planets is one of the major questions in exoplanet astronomy, but there are currently no published unambiguous detections of atmospheres on any rocky exoplanets. The MIRI instrument on JWST can measure thermal emission from tidally locked rocky exoplanets orbiting small, cool stars. This emission is a function of their surface and atmospheric properties, potentially allowing detections of atmospheres. One way to find atmospheres is to search for lower dayside emission than would be expected for a blackbody planet. Another technique is to measure phase curves of thermal emission to search for nightside emission due to atmospheric heat redistribution. Here, we compare strategies for detecting atmospheres on rocky exoplanets. We simulate secondary eclipse and phase curve observations in the MIRI F1500W and F1280W filters for a range of surfaces (providing our open-access albedo data) and atmospheres on 30 exoplanets selected for their F1500W signal-to-noise ratio. We show that secondary eclipse observations are more degenerate between surfaces and atmospheres than suggested in previous work, and that thick atmospheres can support emission consistent with a blackbody planet in these filters. These results make it difficult to unambiguously detect or rule out atmospheres using their photometric dayside emission alone. We suggest that an F1500W phase curve could instead be observed for a similar sample of planets. While phase curves are time-consuming and their instrumental systematics can be challenging, we suggest that they allow the only unambiguous detections of atmospheres by nightside thermal emission.
Journal Article
Onset of Habitable Conditions on the Hadean Earth Set by Feedback between Tides and Greenhouse Forcing
by
Nicholls, Harrison
,
Lichtenberg, Tim
,
van Dijk, Marijn R.
in
Atmospheric composition
,
Earth (planet)
,
Earth-moon system
2026
In the aftermath of the Moon-forming giant impact, the Hadean Earth’s mantle and surface crystallized from a global magma ocean blanketed by a dense volatile-rich atmosphere. While prior studies have explored the thermal evolution of such early-Earth scenarios under idealized, oxidizing conditions, the potential feedback between tidal heating driven by Earth–Moon orbital forcing and variable redox scenarios have not yet been explored in detail. We investigate whether tidal heating could have prolonged this early magma ocean phase and supported quasi-steady state epochs of global radiative equilibrium: periods of thermal balance between outgoing radiation and interior heat flux. Using the PROTEUS simulation framework, we simulate Earth’s early evolution under a range of plausible tidal power densities, oxygen fugacities, and volatile inventories. Our results suggest that feedback between tidal heating and atmospheric forcing can induce substantial variation in magma ocean lifetimes, from ∼30 Myr up to ∼500 Myr, sensitive to interior redox conditions. Global radiative equilibrium epochs commonly arise across this range, lasting from ∼2 to ∼320 Myr, and typically occur from 24 Myr after the Moon-forming impact. Under oxidizing conditions, late-stage H 2 O degassing promotes melt retention and sustained heating due to its significant contribution to greenhouse forcing. Weak tides increase the atmospheric abundance of H 2 S and NH 3 and deplete CO. Therefore, the feedback between tides and atmospheric forcing induces a disequilibrium signature in the magma ocean atmosphere.
Journal Article
Coupled atmospHere Interior modeL Intercomparison (CHILI)—Protocol Version 1.0: A CUISINES Intercomparison Project of Magma Ocean Models
by
Baumeister, Philipp
,
Soucasse, Laurent
,
Krissansen-Totton, Joshua
in
Atmosphere
,
Exoplanet atmospheres
,
Exoplanet evolution
2026
Spectroscopic characterization of rocky exoplanets with the James Webb Space Telescope has brought the origin and evolution of their atmospheres into the focus of exoplanet science. Time-evolved models of the feedback between interior and atmosphere are critical to predict and interpret these observations and link them to the solar system terrestrial planets. However, models differ in methodologies and input data, which can lead to significant differences in interpretation. In this paper, we present the experimental protocol of the Coupled atmospHere Interior modeL Intercomparison (CHILI) project. CHILI is an (exo)planet model intercomparison project within the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies (CUISINES) framework, which aims to support a diverse set of multimodel intercomparison projects in the exoplanet community. The present protocol includes the initial set of participating magma ocean models, divided into evolutionary and static models, and two types of test categories, one focused on solar system planets (Earth and Venus) and the other on exoplanets orbiting low-mass M dwarfs. Both test categories aim to quantify the evolution of key markers of the links between planetary atmospheres and interiors over geological timescales. The proposed tests would allow us to quantify and compare the differences between coupled atmosphere–interior models used by the exoplanet and planetary science communities. Results from the proposed tests will be published in dedicated follow-up papers. To encourage the community to join this comparison effort, and as an example, we present initial test results for the early Earth and TRAPPIST-1 b, conducted with models differing in the treatment of energy transport in the planetary interior and atmosphere, surface boundary layer, geochemistry, and in- and outgassing of volatile compounds.
Journal Article
What Happened to Rocky Planets? An Atmosphere-Interior Perspective From Numerical Modelling
2026
A satisfactory model describing why Earth, Venus, and Mars, differ so substantially is yet to be described; centuries of planetary science have yielded insightful – but incomplete – explanations. Meanwhile, observations of planets beyond the Solar System are revealing novel environments which raise challenges to our existing theories. Multiple lines of evidence suggest the presence of ‘magma oceans’ early in rocky planets’ lifetimes. During these important natal periods, planet-scale feedbacks emerge via exchange of energy and material between mantles and atmospheres. Some magma oceans are sustained indefinitely; others solidify, providing initial conditions for solid-body geodynamics, secondary atmospheres, and the potential for habitability. Both scenarios are observable on exoplanets today.I present a numerical framework for modelling planetary evolution over deep time, capturing the physics of mantle dynamics, tides, volatile partitioning, atmospheric chemistry, convection, radiative transfer, and escape. Applying this holistic model resolves the history of rocky (exo)planets from their birth to the present.Diverse atmospheres are formed in equilibrium with deep magma oceans: from H2- to CO2-dominated compositions, beyond previously-adopted simplified mixtures. Corresponding radiative properties can sustain magma oceans for billions of years. Atmospheric temperature structure, tied to the efficacy of energy transport, regulates planet-scale evolution – including that of the deep interior. Tidal feedbacks, from interior-atmospheric coupling, further regulate magma ocean longevity. My simulations show that global physical-chemical interactions set exoplanets’ observables, making a connection between measurable atmospheric properties and otherwise hidden processes. Evolution tracks of L 98-59 d (a case study) are consistent with recent JWST & TESS observations: L 98-59 d formed volatile-rich, with a substantial atmosphere and a reducing interior – a scenario inaccessible to simplified models, pointing to a continuum of atmospheric evolution scenarios. Space missions, ground-based telescopes, and lab experiments are expanding the horizon of planetary science. The interdisciplinary modelling framework developed here provides a connection between these missions and experiments – yielding a comprehensive picture of the geological, chemical, physical, and climatic evolution of rocky planets in the Solar System and beyond.
Dissertation
AGNI: A radiative-convective model for lava planet atmospheres
by
Pierrehumbert, Raymond
,
Nicholls, Harrison
,
Lichtenberg, Tim
in
Atmospheric temperature
,
Extrasolar planets
,
Lava
2025
It is important that we are able to accurately model the atmospheres of (exo)planets. This is because atmospheres play a central role in setting a planet's thermochemical environment at a given point in time, and also in regulating how it evolves over geological timescales. Additionally, it is primarily by observation of their atmospheres that we are able to characterise exoplanets. There is particular demand for accurate models in the context of so-called lava worlds: planets with molten interiors (or `magma oceans'). AGNI is a Julia program designed to solve for the temperature and radiation environment within the atmospheres of rocky (exo)planets. It leverages a well established FORTRAN code to calculate radiative fluxes from a given atmospheric temperature structure and composition, which -- alongside representations of convection and other processes -- enables an energy-conserving numerical solution for the atmospheric conditions. In contrast to most other numerical atmosphere models, AGNI uses a Newton-Raphson optimisation method to obtain its solution, which enables improved performance and scalability. Our model was specifically developed for use alongside planetary interior models within a coupled simulation framework. However, it can also be applied to scientific problems standalone when used as an executable program; it reads TOML configuration files and outputs figures and NetCDF datasets. AGNI can also function as a software library; it is used in this sense within the Jupyter notebook tutorials of our GitHub repository (https://nichollsh.github.io/AGNI/dev/)
Volatile-rich evolution of molten super-Earth L 98-59 d
by
Guimond, Claire Marie
,
Nicholls, Harrison
,
Lichtenberg, Tim
in
Composition
,
Degassing
,
Density
2026
Small low-density exoplanets are sculpted by strong stellar irradiation, but their primordial compositions and subsequent evolution are still unknown. Two often-considered scenarios hold that they formed with rocky interiors and H\\(_2\\)-He atmospheres ('gas-dwarfs'), or alternatively with bulk compositions dominated by H\\(_2\\)O phases ('water-worlds'). Here, we constrain the possible range of evolutionary histories linking the birth conditions of low-density super-Earth L 98-59 d to recent observations using a coupled atmosphere-interior evolutionary model. We find that the observations can be explained by in-situ photochemical production of SO\\(_2\\) in an H\\(_2\\) background, indicative of a chemically-reducing mantle and substantial (1.8 mass pct.) early sulfur and hydrogen content, inconsistent with both the gas-dwarf and water-world scenarios. L 98-59 d's interior comprises a permanent magma ocean, allowing long-term retention of volatiles within its mantle over billions of years, consistent with California-Kepler Survey trends. Our analysis reveals an evolutionary pathway in which planets host volatile-rich atmospheres sustained by long-term magma ocean degassing, shaped by secular cooling, atmospheric erosion and photochemistry. Internal and environmental processes contribute to the observed diversity of super-Earth and sub-Neptune exoplanets.
Equifinality of Venus-like CO\\(_2\\) Atmospheres
by
Nicholls, Harrison
,
Constantinou, Tereza
,
Shorttle, Oliver
in
Atmosphere
,
Carbon
,
Carbon cycle
2026
While Earth locks much of its carbon in its crust as carbonates, Venus retains a comparable carbon inventory almost entirely in its atmosphere as CO\\(_2\\). On Earth, the geological carbon cycle that has produced this vast crustal carbonate inventory is regulated by biology, liquid water, and plate tectonics, which together have stabilised climate over geological timescales. Venus presently lacks all these processes. We test whether Venus's massive CO\\(_2\\) atmosphere is diagnostic of a specific evolutionary pathway by quantifying three routes: primary magma-ocean outgassing, secondary volcanic degassing in a stagnant-lid regime, and remobilisation of crustal carbonates after climate destabilisation. Using a coupled climate--weathering framework, we find that a past habitable Venus could have stored \\(\\)20 bar of CO\\(_2\\) as crustal carbonates. Following transition to runaway conditions, crustal heating releases this reservoir over tens of Myr. In stagnant-lid secondary-degassing models with a MORB-like mantle, outgassing reaches only \\(\\)25 bar CO\\(_2\\), limited by progressive mantle volatile depletion. However, Venus-like inventories can be achieved through: (i) magmatic carbon enrichment, (ii) increased magmatic delivery to the surface (high extrusion or melt production), and (iii) the recycling of undegassed carbon back into the planet's interior. Primary magma-ocean outgassing can generate \\(>10^2\\) bar CO\\(_2\\), but the retained fraction after early escape remains uncertain. Ultimately, a Venus-like massive CO\\(_2\\) atmosphere is an equifinal outcome and does not uniquely diagnose a temperate past.
Temperature-chemistry coupling in the evolution of gas giant atmospheres driven by stellar flares
by
Evans, Elise
,
Nicholls, Harrison
,
Hébrard, Eric
in
Atmospheric composition
,
Atmospheric models
,
Chemical composition
2023
The effect of enhanced UV irradiation associated with stellar flares on the atmospheric composition and temperature of gas giant exoplanets was investigated. This was done using a 1D radiative-convective-chemical model with self-consistent feedback between the temperature and the non-equilibrium chemistry. It was found that flare-driven changes to chemical composition and temperature give rise to prolonged trends in evolution across a broad range of pressure levels and species. Allowing feedback between chemistry and temperature plays an important role in establishing the quiescent structure of these atmospheres, and determines their evolution due to flares. It was found that cooler planets are more susceptible to flares than warmer ones, seeing larger changes in composition and temperature, and that temperature-chemistry feedback modifies their evolution. Long-term exposure to flares changes the transmission spectra of gas giant atmospheres; these changes differed when the temperature structure was allowed to evolve self-consistently with the chemistry. Changes in spectral features due to the effects of flares on these atmospheres can be associated with changes in composition. The effects of flares on the atmospheres of sufficiently cool planets will impact observations made with JWST. It is necessary to use self-consistent models of temperature and chemistry in order to accurately capture the effects of flares on features in the transmission spectra of cooler gas giants, but this depends heavily on the radiation environment of the planet.