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Conserving wide‐ranging large carnivores in human‐dominated landscapes is contingent on acknowledging the conservation value of human‐modified lands. This is particularly true for tigers (Panthera tigris), now largely dependent on small and fragmented habitats, embedded within densely populated agroecosystems in India. Devising a comprehensive conservation strategy for the species requires an understanding of the temporal patterns of space use by tiger within these human‐modified areas. These areas are often characterized by altered prey communities, novel risks resulting from high human densities and seasonally dynamic vegetative cover. Understanding space use within these areas is vital to devising human‐tiger conflict prevention measures and for conserving landscape elements critical to maintain functional connectivity between populations. We documented seasonal space‐use patterns of tigers in agricultural lands surrounding protected areas in the Central Terai Landscape (CTL) in northern India. We estimated the probability of space use and its drivers by applying dynamic occupancy models that correct for false‐positive and false‐negative errors to tiger detection‐detection data within agricultural areas. These data were generated by conducting local interviews, sign surveys, and camera trapping within 94 randomly selected 2.5‐km2 grid cells. We found that agricultural areas were used with high probability in the winter (0.64; standard error [SE] 0.08), a period of high vegetative cover availability. The use of agricultural lands was lower in the summer (0.56; SE 0.09) and was lowest in the monsoon season (0.21; SE 0.07), tracking a decline in vegetative cover and available habitat across the landscape. Availability of vegetative cover and drainage features positively influenced space use, whereas use declined with increasing distance to protected areas and the extent of human settlements. These findings highlight the role of agricultural areas in providing seasonal habitats for tigers and offer a basis for understanding where tigers and humans co‐occur in these landscapes. These findings help expand our current understanding of what constitutes large carnivore habitats to include human‐dominated agricultural areas. They underscore the need for greater integration of land‐sharing and land‐sparing initiatives to conserve large carnivores within human‐dominated agroecosystems.

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

In order to contribute to conservation planning efforts for golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the western U.S., we developed nest site models using >6,500 nest site locations throughout a >3,483,000 km2 area of the western U.S. We developed models for twelve discrete modeling regions, and estimated relative density of nest sites for each region. Cross-validation showed that, in general, models accurately estimated relative nest site densities within regions and sub-regions. Areas estimated to have the highest densities of breeding golden eagles had from 132-2,660 times greater densities compared to the lowest density areas. Observed nest site densities were very similar to those reported from published studies. Large extents of each modeling region consisted of low predicted nest site density, while a small percentage of each modeling region contained disproportionately high nest site density. For example, we estimated that areas with relative nest density values <0.3 represented from 62.8-97.8% ([Formula: see text] = 82.5%) of each modeling area, and those areas contained from 14.7-30.0% ([Formula: see text] = 22.1%) of the nest sites. In contrast, areas with relative nest density values >0.5 represented from 1.0-12.8% ([Formula: see text] = 6.3%) of modeling areas, and those areas contained from 47.7-66.9% ([Formula: see text] = 57.3%) of the nest sites. Our findings have direct application to: 1) large-scale conservation planning efforts, 2) risk analyses for land-use proposals such as recreational trails or wind power development, and 3) identifying mitigation areas to offset the impacts of human disturbance.

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 1990. We applied modern spatial conservation theory and models to evaluate several candidate critical habitat networks, and sought an efficient conservation solution that encompassed the highest value lands for spotted owl recovery rather than maximizing the total area of potential critical habitat. We created a map of relative habitat suitability, which served as input to the spatial conservation prioritization program Zonation. We used the spatially-explicit individual-based population model HexSim to estimate and compare simulated spotted owl population outcomes among a suite of candidate critical habitat networks that varied in size and spatial arrangement under alternative scenarios of future habitat suitability and barred owl (S. varia) effects. We evaluated simulated spotted owl population outcomes, including total population size, and extinction and quasi-extinction likelihoods for 108 combinations of candidate critical habitat networks by habitat change by barred owl scenarios, both range-wide and within 11 distinct portions of the owl's range. Barred owl encounter rates and the amount and suitability of habitat had substantial effects on simulated spotted owl populations. When barred owl encounter rates were high, changes in the amount and suitability of habitat had minimal impacts on population performance. Under lowered barred owl encounter rates, candidate critical habitat networks that included most existing high suitability habitat supported a high likelihood of long-term population persistence. Barred owls are currently the primary driving force behind poor population performance of NSOs; however, our models demonstrated that a sufficient area of high suitability habitat remains essential for recovery when effects of barred owls can be reduced. The modeling approach we employed is sufficiently flexible to incorporate new information about spotted owls as it becomes available and could likely be applied to conservation planning for other species.

Conservation of old-growth forests and their biodiversity and climate benefits requires coordinated actions across spatiotemporal scales, including restrictions on harvest of old and mature trees and longer-term landscape planning for old-growth recovery. In 2024, the US government drafted a National Old-Growth Amendment (NOGA) to enhance consideration of old growth in planning. The amendment was never finalized due to a change in administrations. However, the debate associated with the proposed NOGA remains relevant for several reasons. The key points of debate also underpin discussion regarding ongoing US regional policy initiatives such as amendments to the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP). The NOGA policy debate illustrates questions that should inform US national old-growth initiatives under future administrations. Lastly, the debate highlights challenges common to such initiatives globally as nations implement the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Although the proposed NOGA provides a useful foundation for future initiatives, more attention must be paid to the policy implications of variation in the context in which old growth occurs across ecosystems. New initiatives must learn from regional efforts, including the NWFP’s insights that landscape design including reserves is essential for conservation of species, services, and processes associated with old-growth ecosystems. Reserves, conceived as places where extractive uses are restricted but beneficial human activities are supported, are compatible with strategies for ecosystem restoration and Indigenous-led conservation. An approach that builds on the NOGA’s adaptive strategies can form a foundation for long-term conservation of forest ecosystems by protecting climate refugia, addressing barriers to connectivity, and enhancing monitoring capacity. Ecosystem-based standards are needed to ensure protection of mature forest so recruitment into the old-growth stage shifts ecosystems towards historic proportions of old growth. In addition to clarifying goals regarding ecological integrity, comprehensive policy must incorporate goals for recovering at-risk species based on relationships across scales of biodiversity between forest habitat and species viability. Land management agencies need to articulate a long-term vision for recovery of depleted ecosystem elements (including both old growth and naturally disturbed younger stands) via designation of large areas anchored by remaining old-growth stands, surrounded by areas managed for recovery of ecological integrity, native biodiversity, and ecosystem services.

Ecological systems can change substantially in response to small shifts in environmental conditions. Such changes are characterized by a non‐linear relationship between the value of the response variable and one or more explanatory variables. Documenting the magnitude of change and the environmental conditions that give rise to these threshold responses is important for both the scientific community and the agencies charged with ecosystem management. A threshold is defined as a substantial change in a response variable, given a marginal change in environmental conditions. Here, we demonstrate the usefulness of a derivative‐based method for detecting ecological thresholds along a single explanatory variable. The “significant zero crossings” (SiZer) approach uses a non‐parametric method to approximate the response function and its derivatives and then examines how those functions change across the range of the explanatory variable. SiZer makes fewer assumptions than conventional threshold models and explores a full range of smoothing functions. We believe SiZer is a useful technique for the exploratory analysis of many ecological datasets.

Sex ratio, and the extent to which it varies over time, is an important factor in the demography, management, and conservation of wildlife populations. Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations in western North America are monitored using counts of males at leks in spring. Population estimates derived from lek‐count data typically assume a constant, female‐biased sex ratio, yet few rigorous, empirically derived estimates of sex ratio are available to test that assumption. We estimated pre‐breeding sex ratio of greater sage‐grouse in a peripheral, geographically isolated population in northwestern Colorado during two consecutive winters using closed‐population, robust‐design, multi‐state, genetic mark–recapture models in program MARK. Sex ratio varied markedly between years, with estimates of 3.29 (95% CI: 2.36–4.59) females per male in winter 2012–2013 and 1.54 (95% CI: 1.22–1.95) females per male in winter 2013–2014. Rather than assuming a constant sex ratio, biologists should consider the potential for large annual variation in sex ratio of greater sage‐grouse populations when estimating population size or trend from male lek‐count data.

Pikas (Ochotona Link, 1795) are high‐altitude specialist species making them a useful bioindicator species to warming in high‐altitude ecosystem. The Himalayan Mountains are an important part of their range, supporting approximately 23%–25% of total pika species worldwide, yet we lack basic information on the distribution patterns. We combine field‐based surveys with genetics‐based identification and phylogeny to identify differences in species‐environment relationships. Further, we suggest putative evolutionary causes for the observed niche patterns. Location Himalayan high‐altitude region. Methods We sampled 11 altitudinal transects (ranging from ~2,000 to 5,000 m) in the Himalaya to establish occurrence records. We collected 223 species records using genetic analyses to confirm species' identity (based on some invasive and mostly noninvasive biological samples). Niche and geographic overlap were estimated using kernel density estimates. Results Most pikas in the Himalaya span wide elevation ranges and exhibit extensive spatial overlap with other species. However, even in areas of high species diversity, we found species to have a distinct environmental niche. Despite apparent overlapping distributions at broad spatial scales, in our field surveys, we encountered few cases of co‐occurrence of species in the sampled transects. Deeply diverged sister‐species pair had the least environmental niche overlap despite having the highest geographic range overlap. In contrast, sister‐species pair with shallow genetic divergence had a higher environmental niche overlap but was geographically isolated. We hypothesize that the extent of environmental niche divergence in pikas is a function of divergence time within the species complex. We assessed vulnerability of species to future climate change using environmental niche and geographic breadth sizes as a proxies. Our findings suggest that O. sikimaria may be the most vulnerable species. Ochotona roylii appears to have the most unique environmental niche space, with least niche overlap with other pika species from the study area. Pikas (Ochotona Link, 1795) are high‐altitude specialist species making them a useful bioindicator species to warming in high altitude ecosystem. The Himalayan Mountains support approximately 23%–25% of total pika species worldwide, yet we lack basic information on the distribution patterns. The study addresses this information gap and identifies patterns of pika species distribution and provides an evolutionary perspective to the identified pattern.

To maximize the utility of research to decisionmaking, especially given limited financial resources, scientists must set priorities for their efforts. We present a list of the top 40 high-priority, multidisciplinary research questions directed toward informing some of the most important current and future decisions about management of species, communities, and ecological processes in the United States. The questions were generated by an open, inclusive process that included personal interviews with decisionmakers, broad solicitation of research needs from scientists and policymakers, and an intensive workshop that included scientifically oriented individuals responsible for managing and developing policy related to natural resources. The process differed from previous efforts to set priorities for conservation research in its focus on the engagement of decisionmakers in addition to researchers. The research priorities emphasized the importance of addressing societal context and exploration of trade-offs among alternative policies and actions, as well as more traditional questions related to ecological processes and functions.