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ObjectiveDuring the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, changes to established care pathways and discharge thresholds for patients with fragility fractures were made. This was to increase hospital bed capacity and minimise the inpatient risk of contracting COVID-19. This study aims to identify the excess death rate in this population during the first wave of the pandemic.DesignA longitudinal cohort study of patients with fragility fractures identified by specific International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. The first wave of the pandemic was defined as the 3-month period between 1 March and 1 June 2020. The control group presented between 1 March and 1 June 2019.SettingTwo acute National Health Service hospitals within the East Midlands region of England.Participants1846 patients with fragility fractures over the aforementioned two specified matched time points.Primary and secondary outcome measuresFour-month mortality of all patients with fragility fractures with a subanalysis of patients with fragility hip fractures.Results832 patients with fragility fracture were admitted during the pandemic period (104 diagnosed with COVID-19). 1014 patients presented with fragility fractures in the control group. Mortality in patients with fragility fracture without COVID-19 was significantly higher among pandemic period admissions (14.7%) than the pre-pandemic cohort (10.2%) (HR=1.86; 95% CI 1.41 to 2.45; p<0.001) adjusted for age and sex. Length of stay was shorter during the pandemic period (effect size=−4.2 days; 95% CI −5.8 to –3.1, p<0.001). Subanalysis of patients with fragility hip fracture revealed a mortality of 8.4% in the pre-pandemic cohort, and 15.48% during pandemic admissions with no COVID-19 diagnosis (HR=2.08; 95% CI 1.11 to 3.90; p=0.021).ConclusionsThere is a significant increase in excess death, not explained by confirmed COVID-19 infections. Altered care pathways and aggressive discharge criteria during the pandemic are likely responsible for the increase in excess deaths.

IntroductionPatients with rib fractures commonly experience significant acute pain and are at risk of hypoxia, retained secretions, respiratory failure and death. Effective analgesia improves these outcomes. There is widespread variation in analgesic treatments given to patients including oral, intravenous and epidural routes of administration. Erector spinae plane (ESP) blockade, a novel regional analgesic technique, may be effective, but high-quality evidence is lacking.Methods and analysisTo determine if a definitive trial of ESP blockade in rib fractures is possible, we are conducting a multicentre, randomised controlled pilot study with feasibility and qualitative assessment. Fifty adult patients with rib fractures will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to ESP blockade with multimodal analgesia or placebo ESP blockade with multimodal analgesia. Participants and outcome assessors will be blinded. The primary feasibility outcomes are recruitment rate, retention rate and trial acceptability assessed by interview.Ethics and disseminationThe study was approved by the Oxford B Research Ethics Committee on 22 February 2022 (REC reference: 22/SC/0005). All participants will provide written consent. Trial results will be reported via peer review and to grant funders.Trial registration numberISRCTN49307616.

Hip fractures in frail patients result in excess mortality not accounted for by age or comorbidities. The mechanisms behind the high risk of mortality remain undetermined but are hypothesized to be related to the inflammatory status of frail patients. In a prospective observational exploratory cohort study of hospitalized frail hip fracture patients, 92 inflammatory markers were tested in pre-operative serum samples and markers were tested against 6-month survival post-hip fracture surgery and incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI). After correcting for multiple testing, adjustments for comorbidities and demographics were performed on the statistically significant markers. Of the 92 markers tested, circulating levels of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) and interleukin-15 receptor alpha (IL15RA), both involved in renal disease, were significantly correlated with 6-month mortality (27.5% overall) after correcting for multiple testing. The incidence of postoperative AKI (25.4%) was strongly associated with 6-month mortality, odds ratio = 10.57; 95% CI [2.76-40.51], and with both markers plus estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)- cystatin C (CYSC) but not eGFR-CRE. The effect of these markers on mortality was significantly mediated by their effect on postoperative AKI. High postoperative mortality in frail hip fracture patients is highly correlated with preoperative biomarkers of renal function in this pilot study. The effect of preoperative circulating levels of FGF-23, IL15RA, and eGFR-CYSC on 6-month mortality is in part mediated by their effect on postoperative AKI. Creatinine-derived preoperative renal function measures were very poorly correlated with postoperative outcomes in this group.

IntroductionLimb fractures in children are common yet there are few trials that compare treatments for these injuries. There is significant heterogeneity in the outcomes reported in the paediatric orthopaedic literature, which limits the ability to compare study results and draw firm conclusions. The aim of the CORE-Kids Study is to develop a core outcome set for use in research studies of childhood limb fractures. A core outcome set will provide a minimum set of outcomes to be measured in all trials to minimise the heterogeneity of outcomes reported and minimise reporting bias. A core outcome set ensures that outcomes are reported that are relevant to families as well as clinicians. The core outcome set will include additional upper and lower limb modules.MethodsThe development of the core outcome set will require four phases to evaluate:What are the outcomes that are relevant to professionals?What are the outcomes that are relevant to families?What are the most important of these outcomes?Which outcomes should be included in the core outcome set?This will be completed through a systematic review of trials to identify the outcomes domains that are relevant to trialists. A series of semi-structured interviews will be completed with families to identify the outcome domains that are relevant to families. These outcome domains will be used in a three-round Delphi Study to analyse the importance of these outcome domains to a range of stakeholders including parents, clinicians and researchers. Following this, the core outcome set will be decided at a consensus meeting.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been awarded HRA/REC IRAS number 262503. Date of approval 06/08/2019. Dissemination will be through scientific literature and international societies.Trial registrationCore Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials Initiative, registration number: 1274. Date of registration 13/12/2018.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42018106605.

PurposeFractures to the axial and appendicular skeleton are common in children causing loss of opportunities and disability. There are relatively few studies available to quantify the number of children who have their fractures diagnosed in the emergency department and are then admitted to hospital for ongoing management. The purpose of this study is to explore trends of frequency, types and age of children sustaining fractures who were admitted for intervention to National Health Service (NHS) hospitals.DesignThe study uses data from the Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics from 2012 to 2019 to calculate the annual incidence of hospital admission for limb, spine, facial and skull fractures per 100 000 children.ResultsDuring 2012–2019, 368 120 children were admitted to English NHS hospitals with a fracture. 256 008 (69.5%) were upper limb fractures, 85 737 (23.3%) were lower limb fractures and 20 939 (5.7%) were skull or facial fractures. The annual incidence of upper limb fractures was highest in children aged 5–9 (348.3 per 100 000 children) and the highest incidence of lower limb fractures was in children aged 10–15 (126.5 per 100 000 children). The incidence of skull and facial fractures in preschool (age 0–4) children has been increasing at a rate of 0.629 per 100 000 children per year.ImplicationsThe annual incidence of hospital admission for fractures in children has been shown to be consistent for several fracture types between 2012 and 2019. An increasing trend of admissions with preschool skull fractures was observed, though the study data do not have sufficient granularity to demonstrate if this is due to changes in practice or to accidental or non-accidental causes.

Objective To examine how the population with fractured neck of femur has changed over the last decade and determine whether they have evolved to become a more physically and socially dependent cohort. Design Retrospective cohort study of prospectively collected Standardised Audit of Hip Fractures of Europe data entered on to an institutional hip fracture registry. Participants 10 044 consecutive hip fracture admissions (2000–2012). Setting A major trauma centre in the UK. Results There was a generalised increase in the number of admissions between 2000 (n=740) and 2012 (n=810). This increase was non-linear and best described by a quadratic curve. Assuming no change in the prevalence of hip fracture over the next 20 years, our hospital is projected to treat 871 cases in 2020 and 925 in 2030. This represents an approximate year-on-year increase of just over 1%. There was an increase in the proportion of male admissions over the study period (2000: 174 of 740 admissions (23.5%); 2012: 249 of 810 admissions (30.7%)). This mirrored national census changes within the geographical area during the same period. During the study period there were significant increases in the numbers of patients admitted from their own home, the proportion of patients requiring assistance to mobilise, and the proportion of patients requiring help with basic activities of daily living (all p<0.001). There was also a twofold to fourfold increase in the proportion of patients admitted with a diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, renal disease, diabetes and polypharmacy (use of >4 prescribed medications; all p<0.001). Conclusions The expanding hip fracture population has increasingly complex medical, social and rehabilitation care needs. This needs to be recognised so that appropriate healthcare strategies and service planning can be implemented. This epidemiological analysis allows projections of future service need in terms of patient numbers and dependency.

Background: Most respiratory viruses show pronounced seasonality, but for SARS-CoV-2, this still needs to be documented. Methods: We examined the disease progression of COVID-19 in 6,914 patients admitted to hospitals in Europe and China. In addition, we evaluated progress of disease symptoms in 37,187 individuals reporting symptoms into the COVID Symptom Study application. Findings: Meta-analysis of the mortality risk in seven European hospitals estimated odds ratios per 1-day increase in the admission date to be 0.981 (0.973–0.988, p < 0.001) and per increase in ambient temperature of 1°C to be 0.854 (0.773–0.944, p = 0.007). Statistically significant decreases of comparable magnitude in median hospital stay, probability of transfer to the intensive care unit, and need for mechanical ventilation were also observed in most, but not all hospitals. The analysis of individually reported symptoms of 37,187 individuals in the UK also showed the decrease in symptom duration and disease severity with time. Interpretation: Severity of COVID-19 in Europe decreased significantly between March and May and the seasonality of COVID-19 is the most likely explanation.

Patients with Achilles tendon rupture who have non-operative treatment have traditionally been treated with immobilisation of the tendon in plaster casts for several weeks. Functional bracing is an alternative non-operative treatment that allows earlier mobilisation, but evidence on its effectiveness and safety is scarce. The aim of the UKSTAR trial was to compare functional and quality-of-life outcomes and resource use in patients treated non-operatively with plaster cast versus functional brace. UKSTAR was a pragmatic, superiority, multicentre, randomised controlled trial done at 39 hospitals in the UK. Patients (aged ≥16 years) who were being treated non-operatively for a primary Achilles tendon rupture at the participating centres were potentially eligible. The exclusion criteria were presenting more than 14 days after injury, previous rupture of the same Achilles tendon, or being unable to complete the questionnaires. Eligible participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive a plaster cast or functional brace using a centralised web-based system. Because the interventions were clearly visible, neither patients nor clinicians could be masked. Participants wore the intervention for 8 weeks. The primary outcome was patient-reported Achilles tendon rupture score (ATRS) at 9 months, analysed in the modified intention-to-treat population (all patients in the groups to which they were allocated, excluding participants who withdrew or died before providing any outcome data). The main safety outcome was the incidence of tendon re-rupture. Resource use was recorded from a health and personal social care perspective. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN62639639. Between Aug 15, 2016, and May 31, 2018, 1451 patients were screened, of whom 540 participants (mean age 48·7 years, 79% male) were randomly allocated to receive plaster cast (n=266) or functional brace (n=274). 527 (98%) of 540 were included in the modified intention-to-treat population, and 13 (2%) were excluded because they withdrew or died before providing any outcome data. There was no difference in ATRS at 9 months post injury (cast group n=244, mean ATRS 74∙4 [SD 19∙8]; functional brace group n=259, ATRS 72∙8 [20∙4]; adjusted mean difference –1∙38 [95% CI –4∙9 to 2∙1], p=0·44). There was no difference in the rate of re-rupture of the tendon (17 [6%] of 266 in the plaster cast group vs 13 [5%] of 274 in the functional brace group, p=0·40). The mean total health and personal social care cost was £1181 for the plaster cast group and £1078 for the functional bract group (mean between-group difference –£103 [95% CI –289 to 84]). Traditional plaster casting was not found to be superior to early weight-bearing in a functional brace, as measured by ATRS, in the management of patients treated non-surgically for Achilles tendon rupture. Clinicians may consider the use of early weight-bearing in a functional brace as a safe and cost-effective alternative to plaster casting. UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

IntroductionAchilles tendon rupture affects over 11 000 people yearly in the UK, and the incidence is increasing. Controversy remains with regard to the best rehabilitation strategy for these patients. In operatively treated patients, functional bracing provides better outcomes compared with plaster casts. However, the role of functional bracing in non-operatively managed patients is unclear. This is the protocol for a multicentre randomised trial of plaster cast immobilisation versus functional bracing for patients with a non-operatively managed Achilles tendon rupture.Methods and analysisAll adults presenting with a primary rupture of the Achilles tendon will be screened. Non-operatively treated patients will be eligible to take part in the trial. Broad eligibility criteria will ensure that the results of the study can be generalised to the wider patient population. Randomisation will be on a 1:1 basis. Both rehabilitation strategies are widely used within the National Health Service. Standardised protocols will be followed, and details of plaster material and brace will be as per the site’s usual practice.A minimum of 330 patients will be randomised to obtain 90% power to detect a difference of 8 points in Achilles Tendon Total Rupture Score at 9 months. Quality of life and resource use will be collected at 3, 6 and 9 months. The differences between treatment groups will be assessed on an intention-to-treat basis. The results of the trial-based economic evaluation will be expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained.Ethics and disseminationThe National Research Ethic Committee approved this study on 18 March 2016 (16/SC/0109).The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment monograph and a manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal will be submitted on completion of the trial (summer 2019). The results of this trial will substantially inform clinical practice on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the treatment of this injury. This study has been registered on the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry with reference no ISRCTN62639639.