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BackgroundPreoperative malnutrition can worsen morbidity and mortality; however, the role of postgastrectomy nutritional status remains unclear. Our purpose was to clarify whether malnutrition after gastrectomy could predict long-term survival.MethodsPatients with pathological stage I, II, and III gastric cancer who underwent gastrectomy between 2002 and 2013 were included. The nutrition risk index (NRI) was evaluated before and at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after gastrectomy. The patients were divided into normal (NRI > 97.5) or malnutrition (NRI ≤ 97.5) groups, and we compared the correlations of clinicopathological characteristics, surgical treatment, and overall survival between the two groups.ResultsAmong the 760 participants, patients in the malnutrition group were significantly older and had higher incidences of comorbidity and advanced cancer than the patients in the normal group. Multivariate analysis showed that overall survival was poorer in the malnutrition group before gastrectomy [hazard ratio (HR) 1.68] and at 1 month (HR 1.77), 3 months (HR 2.18), 6 months (HR 1.81) and 12 months (HR 2.17) after gastrectomy (all p < 0.01). Malnutrition at 1 and 3 months after gastrectomy was significantly associated with poor cause-specific survival. Total gastrectomy, preoperative malnutrition, older age, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent risk factors of postoperative malnutrition at 12 months postgastrectomy.ConclusionsMalnutrition before gastrectomy and at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after gastrectomy significantly and adversely affects overall survival. Nutritional interventions to lessen the impact of postoperative malnutrition offer hope for prolonged survival.

Background To accurately predict the response to treatment, we need a stable and effective risk score that can be calculated from patient characteristics. When we evaluate such risks from time-to-event data with right-censoring, Cox’s proportional hazards model is the most popular for estimating the linear risk score. However, the intrinsic heterogeneity of patients may prevent us from obtaining a valid score. It is therefore insufficient to consider the regression problem with a single linear predictor. Methods we propose the model with a quasi-linear predictor that combines several linear predictors. This provides a natural extension of Cox model that leads to a mixture hazards model. We investigate the property of the maximum likelihood estimator for the proposed model. Moreover, we propose two strategies for getting the interpretable estimates. The first is to restrict the model structure in advance, based on unsupervised learning or prior information, and the second is to obtain as parsimonious an expression as possible in the parameter estimation strategy with cross- L 1 penalty. The performance of the proposed method are evaluated by simulation and application studies. Results We showed that the maximum likelihood estimator has consistency and asymptotic normality, and the cross- L 1 -regularized estimator has root- n consistency. Simulation studies show these properties empirically, and application studies show that the proposed model improves predictive ability relative to Cox model. Conclusions It is essential to capture the intrinsic heterogeneity of patients for getting more stable and effective risk score. The proposed hazard model can capture such heterogeneity and achieve better performance than the ordinary linear Cox proportional hazards model.

Background Combinations of exercise and nutritional interventions might improve the functional prognosis for cachectic cancer patients. However, high attrition and poor compliance with interventions limit their efficacy. We aimed to test the feasibility of the early induction of new multimodal interventions specific for elderly patients with advanced cancer Nutrition and Exercise Treatment for Advanced Cancer (NEXTAC) programme. Methods This was a multicentre prospective single‐arm study. We recruited 30 of 46 screened patients aged ≥70 years scheduled to receive first‐line chemotherapy for newly diagnosed, advanced pancreatic, or non‐small‐cell lung cancer. Physical activity was measured using pedometers/accelerometer (Lifecorder®, Suzuken Co., Ltd., Japan). An 8 week educational intervention comprised three exercise and three nutritional sessions. The exercise interventions combined home‐based low‐intensity resistance training and counselling to promote physical activity. Nutritional interventions included standard nutritional counselling and instruction on how to manage symptoms that interfere with patient's appetite and oral intake. Supplements rich in branched‐chain amino acids (Inner Power®, Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Japan) were provided. The primary endpoint of the study was feasibility, which was defined as the proportion of patients attending ≥4 of six sessions. Secondary endpoints included compliance and safety. Results The median patient age was 75 years (range, 70–84). Twelve patients (40%) were cachectic at baseline. Twenty‐nine patients attended ≥4 of the six planned sessions (96.7%, 95% confidence interval, 83.3 to 99.4). One patient dropped out due to deteriorating health status. The median proportion of days of compliance with supplement consumption and exercise performance were 99% and 91%, respectively. Adverse events possibly related to the NEXTAC programme were observed in five patients and included muscle pain (Grade 1 in two patients), arthralgia (Grade 1 in one patient), dyspnoea on exertion (Grade 1 in one patient), and plantar aponeurositis (Grade 1 in one patient). Conclusions The early induction of multimodal interventions showed excellent compliance and safety in elderly patients with newly diagnosed pancreatic and non‐small‐cell lung cancer receiving concurrent chemotherapy. We are now conducting a randomized phase II study to measure the impact of these interventions on functional prognosis.

Studies have indicated an association between UDP‐glucuronosyltransferase‐1A1 (UGT1A1) genetic polymorphisms and irinotecan‐induced toxicity. We undertook this study to investigate the association between UGT1A1 genetic polymorphisms and toxicity in patients treated with the FOLFIRINOX (comprising oxaliplatin, irinotecan, fluorouracil, and leucovorin) chemotherapy regimen in the JASPAC 06 study. Patients screened for UGT1A1*6 and UGT1A1*28, and treated with either the original FOLFIRINOX (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2, irinotecan 180 mg/m2, leucovorin 200 mg/m2, bolus 5‐fluorouracil [5‐FU] 400 mg/m2, and continuous 5‐FU 2400 mg/m2) or a modified FOLFIRINOX (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2, irinotecan 150 mg/m2, leucovorin 200 mg/m2, and continuous 5‐FU 2400 mg/m2) as first‐line chemotherapy were included. Of 199 patients eligible for this analysis, 79 patients were treated with the original FOLFIRINOX regimen and 120 patients were treated with the modified FOLFIRINOX regimen. In the original FOLFIRINOX group, 54 were UGT1A1 WT, and 25 were UGT1A1 heterozygous type (−/*6, 12 patients; −/*28, 13 patients). In the modified FOLFIRINOX group, 64 were UGT1A1 WT and 56 were UGT1A1 heterozygous type (−/*6, 33 patients; −/*28, 23 patients). In the original FOLFIRINOX group, the incidence of diarrhea was significantly higher among patients with UGT1A1 heterozygous type than among those with UGT1A1 WT and the incidence of leukopenia and diarrhea was significantly higher among patients with UGT1A1 −/*6 than among those with UGT1A1 −/*28. Patients with UGT1A1 heterozygous type, especially those with UGT1A1 −/*6, tended to show a higher incidence rate of severe adverse events, but this was not statistically significant. However, for patients who received the modified FOLFIRINOX, there was no difference in the frequency of adverse events due to UGT1A1 status. In conclusion, patients with heterozygous UGT1A1 polymorphisms treated with the original FOLFIRINOX regimen experienced severe toxicity more frequently than patients with WT UGT1A1. The present study is the first report investigating the association between UGT1A1 genetic polymorphisms, specifically UGT1A1*6 and UGT1A1*28 heterozygosity, and toxicity among Japanese patients with pancreatic cancer treated with FOLFIRINOX.

Background Linear scores are widely used to predict dichotomous outcomes in biomedical studies because of their learnability and understandability. Such approaches, however, cannot be used to elucidate biodiversity when there is heterogeneous structure in target population. Results Our study was focused on describing intrinsic heterogeneity in predictions. Because heterogeneity can be captured by a clustering method, integrating different information from different clusters should yield better predictions. Accordingly, we developed a quasi-linear score, which effectively combines the linear scores of clustered markers. We extended the linear score to the quasi-linear score by a generalized average form, the Kolmogorov-Nagumo average. We observed that two shrinkage methods worked well: ridge shrinkage for estimating the quasi-linear score, and lasso shrinkage for selecting markers within each cluster. Simulation studies and applications to real data show that the proposed method has good predictive performance compared with existing methods. Conclusions Heterogeneous structure is captured by a clustering method. Quasi-linear scores combine such heterogeneity and have a better predictive ability compared with linear scores.

Vonoprazan, a potassium-competitive acid blocker, is expected to be superior to proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) in preventing post-endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD)-induced gastric bleeding. However, the results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies on the efficacy of vonoprazan have been inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of vonoprazan in antithrombotic drug users, a population that has been excluded from RCTs. Treatment effects were assessed using cross-design synthesis, which can be adjusted for differences in study design and patient characteristics. We used data from an RCT in Japan (70 patients in the vonoprazan group and 69 in the PPI group) and an observational study (408 patients in the vonoprazan group and 870 in the PPI group). After matching, among the antithrombotic drug users in the observational study, post-ESD bleeding was noted in 8 out of 86 patients in the vonoprazan group and 18 out of 86 patients in the PPI group. After pooling the data from the RCT and observational study, the risk difference for antithrombotic drug users was -14.6% (95% CI: -22.0 to -7.2). CDS analysis suggested that vonoprazan is more effective than PPIs in preventing post-ESD bleeding among patients administered antithrombotic medications.

Background Most advanced elderly cancer patients experience fatigue, anorexia, and declining physical function due to cancer cachexia, for which effective interventions have not been established. We performed a phase I study of a new nonpharmacological multimodal intervention called the nutritional and exercise treatment for advanced cancer (NEXTAC) program and reported the excellent feasibility of and compliance with this program in elderly patients with advanced cancer who were at risk for cancer cachexia. We report here the background, hypothesis, and design of the next-step multicenter, randomized phase II study to evaluate the efficacy of the program, the NEXTAC-TWO study. Methods Patients with chemo-naïve advanced non-small cell lung cancer or pancreatic cancer, age ≥ 70 years, performance status ≤2, with adequate organ function and without disability according to the modified Katz index will be eligible. In total, 130 participants will be recruited from 15 Japanese institutions and will be randomized into either the intervention group or a control group. Computer-generated random numbers are allocated to each participant. Stratification factors include performance status (0 to 1 vs. 2), site of primary cancer (lung vs. pancreas), stage (III vs. IV), and type of chemotherapy (cytotoxic vs. others). Interventions and assessment will be performed 4 times every 4 ± 2 weeks from the date of randomization. Interventions will consist of nutritional counseling, nutritional supplements (rich in branched-chain amino acids), and a home-based exercise program. The exercise program will include low-intensity daily muscle training and lifestyle education to promote physical activity. The primary endpoint is disability-free survival. It is defined as the period from the date of randomization to the date of developing disability or death due to any cause. This trial also plans to evaluate the improvements in nutritional status, physical condition, quality of life, activities of daily living, overall survival, and safety as secondary endpoints. Enrollment began in August 2017. The study results will demonstrate the efficacy of multimodal interventions for elderly cancer patients and their application for the maintenance of physical and nutritional conditions in patients with cancer cachexia. This work is supported by a grant-in-aid from the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development. Discussion This is the first randomized trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a multimodal intervention specific for elderly patients with advanced cancer. Trial registration Registered at August 23, 2017. Registry number: UMIN000028801 .

Background Standard treatment for unresectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) without distant metastasis is definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT), in which the incidence of esophageal fistula (EF) is reported to be 10–12%. An ad hoc analysis of JCOG0303, a phase II/III trial of dCRT for patients with unresectable ESCC (including non-T4b), suggested that esophageal stenosis is a risk factor for EF. However, risk factors for EF in patients limited to T4b ESCC treated with dCRT have yet to be clarified. The aim of this study was to investigate risk factors for EF in T4b thoracic ESCC treated with dCRT. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of consecutive T4b thoracic ESCC patients who were treated with dCRT (cisplatin and fluorouracil) at Shizuoka Cancer Center between April 2004 and September 2015. Results Excluding 8 patients with esophageal fistula clearly attributable to other iatrogenic interventions, the data of 116 patients who met the inclusion criteria were analyzed. Esophageal fistula was observed in 28 patients (24%). Although the fistula was closed in 5 patients, overall survival was significantly shorter in patients who experienced esophageal fistula (8.0 vs. 26.8 months; p  < 0.0001). Among four potential variables extracted in univariate analysis, namely, total circumferential lesion, elevated CRP level, elevated white blood cell count, and anemia, the first two were revealed as risk factors for esophageal fistula in multivariate analysis. Conclusions This study demonstrated that total circumferential lesion and CRP ≥1.00 mg/dL are risk factors for esophageal fistula in T4b thoracic ESCC treated with dCRT. Trial registration This study was retrospectively registered.

Background Elderly patient with advanced cancer is one of the most vulnerable populations. Skeletal muscle depletion during chemotherapy may have substantial impact on their physical function. However, there is little information about a direct relationship between quantity of muscle and physical function. We sought to explore the quantitative association between skeletal muscle depletion, and muscle strength and walking capacity in elderly patients with advanced non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods Thirty patients aged ≥70 years with advanced NSCLC (stage III-IV) scheduled to initiate first-line chemotherapy were prospectively enrolled between January 2013 and November 2014. Lumbar skeletal muscle index (LSMI, cm 2 /m 2 ), incremental shuttle walking distance (ISWD, m), and hand-grip strength (HGS, kg) were assessed at baseline, and 6 ± 2 weeks (T2) and 12 ± 4 weeks (T3) after study enrollment. Associations were analyzed using linear regression. Results Altogether, 11 women and 19 men with a median age of 74 (range, 70–82) years were included in the study; 24 received cytotoxic chemotherapy and 6, gefitinib. Mean ± standard deviation of LSMI, ISWD and HGS were 41.2 ± 7.8 cm 2 /m 2 , 326.0 ± 127.9 m, and 29.3 ± 8.5 kg, respectively. LSMI and ISWD significantly declined from baseline to T2 and T3. HGS significantly declined from baseline to T2 and T3 only in men. Change in LSMI was significantly associated with change in HGS (β = 0.3 ± 0.1, p  = 0.0127) and ISWD (β = 8.8 ± 2.4, p  = 0.0005). Conclusions Skeletal muscle depletion accompanied with physical functional decline started in the early phase of the chemotherapy in elderly patients with advanced NSCLC. Our results suggest that there may be a need for early supportive care in these patients to prevent functional decline during chemotherapy. Trial registration Trial registration number: UMIN000009768 Name of registry: UMIN (University hospital Medical Information Network). URL of registry: Date of registration: 14 January 2013. Date of enrolment of the first participant to the trial: 23 January 2013.

CYFRA 21-1 is a prognostic marker for non–small cell lung cancer. The serum CYFRA 21-1 level is also known as an adjunct for the diagnosis of lung squamous cell carcinoma. This study aimed to examine whether CYFRA 21-1 has predictive implications for nivolumab therapy in patients with advanced lung adenocarcinoma. Of the 79 patients who were treated with nivolumab therapy at the Shizuoka Cancer Center between December 2015 and September 2016, we retrospectively reviewed the data of 50 patients. The patient characteristics were as follows: age <70/≥70 years: 43 (86%)/7; male/female: 31 (62.0%)/19; Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0–1/2: 43 (86%)/7; smoking status: no/yes: 18 (36%)/32; epidermal growth factor receptor mutation status negative/positive: 36 (72%)/14; CYFRA 21-1 ≥2.2/<2.2 ng/mL: 28 (56%)/22; carcinoembryonic antigen ≥5/<5 ng/mL: 29 (58%)/21; and number of prior regimens 2–3/≥4: 16 (32%)/34. With a median follow-up of 263.5 (range, 64–352) days, the median progression-free survival was 70 days. The clinical variables investigated using univariate analysis were as follows: age (p = 0.423), carcinoembryonic antigen (p = 0.888), epidermal growth factor receptor mutation status (p = 0.105), performance status (p = 0.968), sex (p = 0.210), number of prior regimens (p = 0.146), CYFRA 21-1 (p = 0.026), and smoking status (p = 0.041). A multivariate analysis identified a serum CYFRA 21-1 level ≥2.2 ng/mL as an independent predictor of a favorable outcome (hazard ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.23–0.85; p = 0.015; median progression-free survival, 155 vs 51.5 days). In conclusion, CYFRA 21-1 might be an independent predictor of outcome for patients with advanced lung adenocarcinoma treated with nivolumab.