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40 result(s) for "Onno Kuik"
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Climate Change, Forests and REDD
A search for new methods for dealing with climate change led to the identification of forest maintenance as a potential policy option that could cost-effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with the development of measures for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). This book explores how an analysis of past forest governance patterns from the global through to the local level, can help us to build institutions which more effectively deal with forests within the climate change regime. The book assesses the options for reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries under the international climate regime, as well as the incentives flowing from them at the national and sub national level and examines how these policy levers change human behaviour and interface with the drivers and pressures of land use change in tropical forests. The book considers the trade-offs between certain forestry related policies within the current climate regime and the larger goal of sustainable forestry. Based on an assessment of existing multi-level institutional forestry arrangements, the book questions how policy frameworks can be better designed in order to effectively and equitably govern the challenges of deforestation and land degradation under the global climate change regime. This book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of Law and Environmental Studies.
Using Meta-Analysis and GIS for Value Transfer and Scaling Up: Valuing Climate Change Induced Losses of European Wetlands
There is growing policy and academic interest in transferring ecosystem service values from existing valuation studies to other ecosystem sites at a large geographic scale. Despite the evident policy demand for this combined transfer and “scaling up” of values, an approach to value transfer that addresses the challenges inherent in assessing ecosystem changes at a national or regional level is not available. This paper proposes a methodology for scaling up ecosystem service values to estimate the welfare effects of ecosystem change at this larger geographical scale. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to value the impact of climate change on European wetlands for the period 2000–2050. The proposed methodology makes use of meta-analysis to produce a value function. The parameters of the value function include spatial variables on wetland size and abundance, GDP per capita, and population. A geographic information system is used to construct a database of wetland sites in the case study region with information on these spatial variables. Site-specific ecosystem service values are subsequently estimated using the meta-analytic value function. The proposed method is shown to enable the adjustment of transferred values to reflect variation in important spatial variables and to account for changes in the stock of ecosystems.
Trade Liberalization and Carbon Leakage
This paper examines the effect of trade liberalization on carbon leakage. We present quantitative estimates of carbon leakage under the Kyoto Protocol with and without freer trade by means of import tariff reductions agreed to in the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations. We find that under a plausible range of assumptions, the implementation of these import tariff reductions increases the overall rate of leakage, suggesting that previous studies may structurally have underestimated the rate of carbon leakage under the Kyoto Protocol. But we also find that the costs of abating the trade-induced leakage are modest relative to the welfare gains of freer trade. Analysis of the trade-induced carbon leakage shows large differences between leakage caused by reductions of import tariffs on energy goods and by reductions of import tariffs on nonenergy goods. It also shows large differences in emission responses among developing country regions.
The Transboundary Impacts of Trade Liberalization and Climate Change on the Nile Basin Economies and Water Resource Availability
A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used for the first time to evaluate the economic and water resource availability effects of trade liberalization (removal of import tariffs) and facilitation (reducing non-tariff barriers) under climate change in the Nile Basin. The analysis uses the GTAP 9 Database and the GTAP-W model that distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as a factor of production directly substitutable in the production process of irrigated agriculture. A full trade liberalization and improved trade facilitation scenario is considered with and without climate change. The study reveals that trade liberalization and facilitation generates substantial economic benefits and enhances economic growth and welfare in the Nile basin. The effect of instituting a free trade policy on water savings is found to be limited, while climate change improves water supply and hence irrigation water use, enhancing economic growth and welfare in the basin.
REDD+ and international leakage via food and timber markets: a CGE analysis
This paper studies the effect of international trade in food and timber on land use and potential carbon leakage in the context of actions to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). First a simple analytical model of international leakage is presented that focuses on international competition between firms that produce food and timber. A formula for the leakage rate in the model is derived. The results of the analytical model are then tested with a large Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and it is verified that the qualitative results from the analytical model hold. Finally, a scenario of leakage rate trajectories is presented for a number of key tropical forest regions for the next two decades and a sensitivity analysis is performed on key parameters. Computed leakage rates range between 0.5 % for Brazil and 11.3 % for Malaysia and are fairly stable over the projection period. Leakage rates increase with a higher supply elasticity of land and a higher trade elasticity, they decrease with a higher elasticity of input substitution in production and appear to be independent of the rates of forest conservation and absolute prices of food and timber.
What Are People Willing to Pay for Social Sustainability? A Choice Experiment among Dutch Consumers
A relatively large number of studies has shown that consumers are willing to pay more for products that are certified as being environmentally or socially responsible, but most of these studies focus on the willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental benefits, while insights into the WTP for social benefits are limited. More research in this area will shed light on consumer choices and help policymakers to better direct the food industry toward social sustainability. In this paper, we carry out a Discrete Choice Experiment among Dutch consumers to measure consumer WTP for five social sustainability benefits; (1) no child labor; (2) liveable wage and safe working environment; (3) project for the education of workers; (4) equal wages for men and women; and (5) freedom to join a trade union. The novelty of our research in comparison with previous studies is that we aim to differentiate the WTP for various social standards instead of estimating an overall WTP for fair-trade labels. In addition to average price premiums per social standard, our latent class models also give insight into heterogeneity in WTP, or more specifically, stated price premiums by different groups (or market segments) in society. The results suggest that substantial price premiums for social sustainability benefits may exist, which currently are not reflected in food prices. Including price premiums for market products that fully incorporate societal costs of those products, so-called true prices or shadow prices, will decrease consumer demand for less-sustainable products and will lead to a fairer and more sustainable economic system. Our results also show that the price premiums may vary substantially between the various categories of social sustainability benefits and across products and market segments. Further research on assessing the motivations behind consumer choices for more-sustainable products is crucial here, especially for campaigns aimed at enhancing their market shares.
WATER SCARCITY FROM CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION RESPONSE IN AN INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASIN CONTEXT
We simulate and analyze the direct and indirect economic impacts of climate change on water availability for irrigation on the economy of the Netherlands and the other EU countries which share the Rhine and Meuse river basin (France, Germany and Belgium), employing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We make use of the GTAP-W model, distinguishing between rainfed and irrigated land and irrigation water as input factors in agricultural production. We assess the scope of market adaptation to climate change by comparing the CGE results with the direct agricultural damage costs estimated using hydrological and crop growth models. We find considerable scope for market adaptation in that total economic impacts on agriculture are much lower when accounting for substitution effects and cross-sectoral and cross-country interlinkages, while the impact on the nonagricultural sectors becomes larger when these substitution effects and interlinkages are accounted for.
The effect of land subsidence on real estate values
Land subsidence in the Netherlands, mainly occurring in its western and northern peat and clay soils, causes significant damage to houses and infrastructure, estimated at EUR 17 billion until 2050, through differential settlement of shallow foundations, negative skin friction and fungal decay of timber piles. Various studies and reports both in The Netherlands and abroad have addressed the potential economic impacts of subsidence on houses: yet, these studies lack spatially detailed data and instead rely on generic assumptions on expected damage restoration costs. By using a hedonic pricing model, this study examines the impact of subsidence on housing prices in the Dutch cities of Rotterdam and Gouda. In contrast to earlier studies, subsidence and its impact on property values are examined at house level. We test for the effect of subsidence with data related to (i) general (uniform) subsidence (mm yr−1), (ii) differential subsidence of a building and (iii) subsidence of the surrounding area in relation to the house. Results show that uniform subsidence has the largest impact on property values with approximately −6 %, while “differential” and “surrounding” subsidence show respectively −2 % and no effect. These results could prove useful to policymakers, homeowners and housing corporations by generating a better understanding of the impact of subsidence on property values and subsequently to create awareness and spur investments in measures to mitigate damage. It should be noted that these results are specific to the research area are therefore not immediately scalable to other cities as local conditions differ.
The potential of water markets to allocate water between industry, agriculture, and public water utilities as an adaptation mechanism to climate change
One of the climate change scenarios that have been developed for the Netherlands predicts hotter and drier summers and a substantial drop in river discharge. This might lead to water scarcity with detrimental economic and environmental effects. Among the possible adaptation responses to climate change-induced water scarcity, the re-allocation of water resources among competing uses should also be considered. In this paper, we extend and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the potential of water markets (water allocation according to its shadow price) to guide the allocation of scarce water across agriculture, manufacturing, and public water supply. We develop four scenarios in which the scope of water markets is increased from industry-specific to economy-wide. The results show that the agricultural sector bears nearly all of the losses from a new water-scarce climate, while the manufacturing sectors are able to mitigate their losses to a large extent by technical measures. Extending the scope of water markets unambiguously increases economic output and results in a re-allocation of water to the manufacturing sector from the agricultural sector and from public water services. If, perhaps for political reasons, public water services are excluded from water trading, water is re-allocated from agriculture to manufacturing. Depending on which sectors are included, the construction of a water market can have negative or positive effects on a sector’s output, and although the implementation of water markets may be positive for overall economic output and can hence assist adaptation, the effect on vulnerable or societally sensitive economic sectors, such as public water, should be taken into account when implementing such a market.
THE ECONOMY-WIDE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE NILE BASIN: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH
A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to evaluate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under the IPCC’s A2 and B1 scenarios and existing irrigation development plans in the Nile basin. The study reveals that climate change adversely affects mainly downstream Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan, while it results in a limited impact in the upstream countries Ethiopia and the Equatorial Lakes region, where irrigated agriculture is still limited. The economic consequences for Egypt are especially substantial if the river basin countries pursue a unilateral irrigation development strategy. In order to prevent water use conflicts and ease water scarcity conditions, a cooperative water development strategy is needed as well as economic diversification in favor of less water-intensive sectors, combined with investments in water-saving infrastructure and improved irrigation efficiency.