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Inferring unknown trait values is ubiquitous across biological sciences—whether for reconstructing the past, imputing missing values for further analysis, or understanding evolution. Models explicitly incorporating shared ancestry amongst species with both known and unknown values (phylogenetically informed prediction) provide accurate reconstructions. However, 25 years after the introduction of such models, it remains common practice to simply use predictive equations derived from phylogenetic generalised least squares or ordinary least squares regression models to calculate unknown values. Here, we use a comprehensive set of simulations to demonstrate two- to three-fold improvement in the performance of phylogenetically informed predictions compared to both ordinary least squares and phylogenetic generalised least squares predictive equations. We found that phylogenetically informed prediction using the relationship between two weakly correlated (r = 0.25) traits was roughly equivalent to (or even better than) predictive equations for strongly correlated traits (r = 0.75). A critique and comparison of four published predictive analyses showcase real-world examples of phylogenetically informed prediction. We also highlight the importance of prediction intervals, which increase with increasing phylogenetic branch length. Finally, we offer guidelines to making phylogenetically informed predictions across diverse fields such as ecology, epidemiology, evolution, oncology, and palaeontology. Phylogenetically informed predictions account for phylogenetic relationships among species while predicting unknown trait values. Here, the authors critically compare this approach with equations derived from phylogenetic generalised least squares and ordinary least squares, demonstrating its improved performance across diverse datasets.

Genome size has long been hypothesized to affect the metabolic rate in various groups of animals. The mechanism behind this proposed association is the nucleotypic effect, in which large nucleus and cell sizes influence cellular metabolism through surface area-to-volume ratios. Here, we provide a review of the recent literature on the relationship between genome size and metabolic rate. We also conduct an analysis using phylogenetic comparative methods and a large sample of extant vertebrates. We find no evidence that the effect of genome size improves upon models in explaining metabolic rate variation. Not surprisingly, our results show a strong positive relationship between metabolic rate and body mass, as well as a substantial difference in metabolic rate between endothermic and ectothermic vertebrates, controlling for body mass. The presence of endothermy can also explain elevated rate shifts in metabolic rate whereas genome size cannot. We further find no evidence for a punctuated model of evolution for metabolic rate. Our results do not rule out the possibility that genome size affects cellular physiology in some tissues, but they are consistent with previous research suggesting little support for a direct functional connection between genome size and basal metabolic rate in extant vertebrates. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Vertebrate palaeophysiology’.

Global climate patterns fundamentally shape the distribution of species and ecosystems. For example, Bergmann’s rule predicts that homeothermic animals, including birds and mammals, inhabiting cooler climates are generally larger than close relatives from warmer climates. The modern world, however, lacks the comparative data needed to evaluate such macroecological rules rigorously. Here, we test for Bergmann’s rule in Mesozoic dinosaurs and mammaliaforms that radiated within relatively temperate global climate regimes. We develop a phylogenetic model that accounts for biases in the fossil record and allows for variable evolutionary dispersal rates. Our analysis also includes new fossil data from the extreme high-latitude Late Cretaceous Arctic Prince Creek Formation. We find no evidence for Bergmann’s rule in Mesozoic dinosaurs or mammaliaforms, the ancestors of extant homeothermic birds and mammals. When our model is applied to thousands of extant dinosaur (bird) and mammal species, we find that body size evolution remains independent of latitude. A modest temperature effect is found in extant, but not in Mesozoic, birds, suggesting that body size evolution in modern birds was influenced by Bergmann’s rule during Cenozoic climatic change. Our study provides a general approach for studying macroecological rules, highlighting the fossil record’s power to address longstanding ecological principles. Bergmann’s Rule predicts larger body sizes in colder climates. Here, the authors examine extinct and extant dinosaurs (birds) and mammaliaforms, finding no evidence of body size variation with latitude in any group, but a small variation with temperature in extant birds.

Live birth has evolved many times independently in vertebrates, such as mammals and diverse groups of lizards and snakes. However, live birth is unknown in the major clade Archosauromorpha, a group that first evolved some 260 million years ago and is represented today by birds and crocodilians. Here we report the discovery of a pregnant long-necked marine reptile ( Dinocephalosaurus ) from the Middle Triassic (∼245 million years ago) of southwest China showing live birth in archosauromorphs. Our discovery pushes back evidence of reproductive biology in the clade by roughly 50 million years, and shows that there is no fundamental reason that archosauromorphs could not achieve live birth. Our phylogenetic models indicate that Dinocephalosaurus determined the sex of their offspring by sex chromosomes rather than by environmental temperature like crocodilians. Our results provide crucial evidence for genotypic sex determination facilitating land-water transitions in amniotes. Although live birth evolved repeatedly in other clades, it has not been found in archosauromorphs, the group including modern birds and crocodilians. Here, the authors describe a fossilized pregnant Dinocephalosaurus from ∼245 million years ago, providing evidence of live birth in archosauromorphs.

Rugose projections on the anterior and posterior aspects of vertebral neural spines appear throughout Amniota and result from the mineralization of the supraspinous and interspinous ligaments via metaplasia, the process of permanent tissue-type transformation. In mammals, this metaplasia is generally pathological or stress induced, but is a normal part of development in some clades of birds. Such structures, though phylogenetically sporadic, appear throughout the fossil record of non-avian theropod dinosaurs, yet their physiological and adaptive significance has remained unexamined. Here we show novel histologic and phylogenetic evidence that neural spine projections were a physiological response to biomechanical stress in large-bodied theropod species. Metaplastic projections also appear to vary between immature and mature individuals of the same species, with immature animals either lacking them or exhibiting smaller projections, supporting the hypothesis that these structures develop through ontogeny as a result of increasing bending stress subjected to the spinal column. Metaplastic mineralization of spinal ligaments would likely affect the flexibility of the spinal column, increasing passive support for body weight. A stiff spinal column would also provide biomechanical support for the primary hip flexors and, therefore, may have played a role in locomotor efficiency and mobility in large-bodied species. This new association of interspinal ligament metaplasia in Theropoda with large body size contributes additional insight to our understanding of the diverse biomechanical coping mechanisms developed throughout Dinosauria, and stresses the significance of phylogenetic methods when testing for biological trends, evolutionary or not.

The timing of the origin and diversification of rodents remains controversial, due to conflicting results from molecular clocks and paleontological data. The fossil record tends to support an early Cenozoic origin of crown-group rodents. In contrast, most molecular studies place the origin and initial diversification of crown-Rodentia deep in the Cretaceous, although some molecular analyses have recovered estimated divergence times that are more compatible with the fossil record. Here we attempt to resolve this conflict by carrying out a molecular clock investigation based on a nine-gene sequence dataset and a novel set of seven fossil constraints, including two new rodent records (the earliest known representatives of Cardiocraniinae and Dipodinae). Our results indicate that rodents originated around 61.7-62.4 Ma, shortly after the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary, and diversified at the intraordinal level around 57.7-58.9 Ma. These estimates are broadly consistent with the paleontological record, but challenge previous molecular studies that place the origin and early diversification of rodents in the Cretaceous. This study demonstrates that, with reliable fossil constraints, the incompatibility between paleontological and molecular estimates of rodent divergence times can be eliminated using currently available tools and genetic markers. Similar conflicts between molecular and paleontological evidence bedevil attempts to establish the origination times of other placental groups. The example of the present study suggests that more reliable fossil calibration points may represent the key to resolving these controversies.

Extinct reptiles, sea and sex Land vertebrates have returned to the sea many times over the ages. Modern seals and whales, as mammals, are live-bearing, and their sex is determined by genotype. But what of the many reptiles that once thronged the seas, such as the mosasaurs, ichthyosaurs and plesiosaurs? Sex determination might be environmentally or genotypically determined, and birth might be live, or through eggs. Based on phylogenetic analysis, Organ et al . propose that the sea-going reptiles of the past were not only live-bearers (which we know from the fossil record) but had genotypic sex determination. This would have freed them from the need to return to land to give birth (amniote eggs perish under water) and enabled their morphological transformation into highly evolved fish-like forms. Adaptive radiations often follow the evolution of key traits. The mechanism by which a species determines the sex of its offspring has been linked to critical ecological and life-history traits but not to major adaptive radiations. A coevolutionary relationship is now established in 94 amniote species between the sex-determining mechanism and whether a species bears live young or lays eggs. This is used to predict the evolution of genotypic sex determination before the acquisition of live birth in three extinct marine reptiles. Adaptive radiations often follow the evolution of key traits, such as the origin of the amniotic egg and the subsequent radiation of terrestrial vertebrates. The mechanism by which a species determines the sex of its offspring has been linked to critical ecological and life-history traits 1 , 2 , 3 but not to major adaptive radiations, in part because sex-determining mechanisms do not fossilize. Here we establish a previously unknown coevolutionary relationship in 94 amniote species between sex-determining mechanism and whether a species bears live young or lays eggs. We use that relationship to predict the sex-determining mechanism in three independent lineages of extinct Mesozoic marine reptiles (mosasaurs, sauropterygians and ichthyosaurs), each of which is known from fossils to have evolved live birth 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 . Our results indicate that each lineage evolved genotypic sex determination before acquiring live birth. This enabled their pelagic radiations, where the relatively stable temperatures of the open ocean constrain temperature-dependent sex determination in amniote species. Freed from the need to move and nest on land 4 , 5 , 8 , extreme physical adaptations to a pelagic lifestyle evolved in each group, such as the fluked tails, dorsal fins and wing-shaped limbs of ichthyosaurs. With the inclusion of ichthyosaurs, mosasaurs and sauropterygians, genotypic sex determination is present in all known fully pelagic amniote groups (sea snakes, sirenians and cetaceans), suggesting that this mode of sex determination and the subsequent evolution of live birth are key traits required for marine adaptive radiations in amniote lineages.

A premature stop codon in ACTN3 resulting in α-actinin-3 deficiency (the ACTN3 577XX genotype) is common in humans and reduces strength, muscle mass, and fast-twitch fiber diameter, but increases the metabolic efficiency of skeletal muscle. Linkage disequilibrium data suggest that the ACTN3 R577X allele has undergone positive selection during human evolution. The allele has been hypothesized to be adaptive in environments with scarce resources where efficient muscle metabolism would be selected. Here we test this hypothesis by using recently developed comparative methods that account for evolutionary relatedness and gene flow among populations. We find evidence that the ACTN3 577XX genotype evolved in association with the global latitudinal gradient. Our results suggest that environmental variables related to latitudinal variation, such as species richness and mean annual temperature, may have influenced the adaptive evolution of ACTN3 577XX during recent human history.

Phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) are commonly used to study evolution and adaptation. However, frequently used PCMs for discrete traits mishandle single evolutionary transitions. They erroneously detect correlated evolution in these situations. For example, hair and mammary glands cannot be said to have evolved in a correlated fashion because each evolved only once in mammals, but a commonly used model (Pagel’s Discrete) statistically supports correlated (dependent) evolution. Using simulations, we find that rate parameter estimation, which is central for model selection, is poor in these scenarios due to small effective (evolutionary) sample sizes of independent character state change. Pagel’s Discrete model also tends to favor dependent evolution in these scenarios, in part, because it forces evolution through state combinations unobserved in the tip data. This model prohibits simultaneous dual transitions along branches. Models with underlying continuous data distributions (e.g., Threshold and GLMM) are less prone to favor correlated evolution but are still susceptible when evolutionary sample sizes are small. We provide three general recommendations for researchers who encounter these common situations: i) create study designs that evaluate a priori hypotheses and maximize evolutionary sample sizes; ii) assess the suitability of evolutionary models—for discrete traits, we introduce the phylogenetic imbalance ratio; and iii) evaluate evolutionary hypotheses with a consilience of evidence from disparate fields, like biogeography and developmental biology. Consilience plays a central role in hypothesis testing within the historical sciences where experiments are difficult or impossible to conduct, such as many hypotheses about correlated evolution. These recommendations are useful for investigations that employ any type of PCM.

Sauropodomorph dinosaurs include the largest land animals to have ever lived, some reaching up to 10 times the mass of an African elephant. Despite their status defining the upper range for body size in land animals, it remains unknown whether sauropodomorphs evolved larger-sized genomes than non-avian theropods, their sister taxon, or whether a relationship exists between genome size and body size in dinosaurs, two questions critical for understanding broad patterns of genome evolution in dinosaurs. Here we report inferences of genome size for 10 sauropodomorph taxa. The estimates are derived from a Bayesian phylogenetic generalized least squares approach that generates posterior distributions of regression models relating genome size to osteocyte lacunae volume in extant tetrapods. We estimate that the average genome size of sauropodomorphs was 2.02 pg (range of species means: 1.77-2.21 pg), a value in the upper range of extant birds (mean = 1.42 pg, range: 0.97-2.16 pg) and near the average for extant non-avian reptiles (mean = 2.24 pg, range: 1.05-5.44 pg). The results suggest that the variation in size and architecture of genomes in extinct dinosaurs was lower than the variation found in mammals. A substantial difference in genome size separates the two major clades within dinosaurs, Ornithischia (large genomes) and Saurischia (moderate to small genomes). We find no relationship between body size and estimated genome size in extinct dinosaurs, which suggests that neutral forces did not dominate the evolution of genome size in this group.