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"Ortiz, Cristina"
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Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality
Few studies have used empirical evidence of past adaptation to project temperature-related excess mortality under climate change. Here, we assess adaptation in future projections of temperature-related excess mortality by employing evidence of shifting minimum mortality temperatures (MMTs) concurrent with climate warming of recent decades. The study is based on daily non-external mortality and daily mean temperature time-series from 11 Spanish cities covering four decades (1978–2017). It employs distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to describe temperature-mortality associations, and multivariate mixed-effect meta-regression models to derive city- and subperiod-specific MMTs, and subsequently MMT associations with climatic indicators. We use temperature projections for one low- and one high-emission scenario (ssp126, ssp370) derived from five global climate models. Our results show that MMTs have closely tracked mean summer temperatures (MSTs) over time and space, with meta-regression models suggesting that the MMTs increased by 0.73 °C (95%CI: 0.65, 0.80) per 1 °C rise in MST over time, and by 0.84 °C (95%CI: 0.76, 0.92) per 1 °C rise in MST across cities. Future projections, which include adaptation by shifting MMTs according to observed temporal changes, result in 63.5% (95%CI: 50.0, 81.2) lower heat-related excess mortality, 63.7% (95%CI: 30.2, 166.7) higher cold-related excess mortality, and 11.2% (95%CI: −5.5, 39.5) lower total temperature-related excess mortality in the 2090s for ssp370 compared to estimates that do not account for adaptation. For ssp126, assumptions on adaptation have a comparatively small impact on excess mortality estimates. Elucidating the adaptive capacities of societies can motivate strengthened efforts to implement specific adaptation measures directed at reducing heat stress under climate change.
Journal Article
Tropical Deep Convection Impact on Southern Winter Stationary Waves and Its Modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
The impact of tropical deep convection on southern winter stationary waves and its modulation by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have been investigated in a long (210 year) climate model simulation and in ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1979–2018. Model results reveal that tropical deep convection over the region of its climatological maximum modulates high-latitude stationary planetary waves in the southern winter hemisphere, corroborating the dominant role of tropical thermal forcing in the generation of these waves. In the tropics, deep convection enhancement leads to wavenumber-1 eddy anomalies that reinforce the climatological Rossby–Kelvin wave couplet. The Rossby wave propagates toward the extratropical southern winter hemisphere and upward through the winter stratosphere reinforcing wavenumber-1 climatological eddies. As a consequence, stronger tropical deep convection is related to greater upward wave propagation and, consequently, to a stronger Brewer–Dobson circulation and a warmer polar winter stratosphere. This linkage between tropical deep convection and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter polar vortex is also found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, model results indicate that the enhancement of deep convection observed during the easterly phase of the QBO (E-QBO) gives rise to a similar modulation of the southern winter extratropical stratosphere, which suggests that the QBO modulation of convection plays a fundamental role in the transmission of the QBO signature to the southern stratosphere during the austral winter, revealing a new pathway for the QBO–SH polar vortex connection. ERA-Interim corroborates a QBO modulation of deep convection; however, the shorter data record does not allow us to assess its possible impact on the SH polar vortex.
Journal Article
Multidecadal Variability of the Summer Length in Europe
This study analyzes the multidecadal variability of the European summer timing and length. The dates of the summer onset and end are computed through an objective algorithm based on locally defined temperature thresholds applied to the European daily high-resolution gridded dataset (E-OBS) during the period 1950–2012. The results reveal a European mean summer lengthening of 2.4 days decade−1for the period 1950–2012. However, this trend is confined to the post-1979 period, when lengthening rates range between 5 and 12 days decade−1over western Europe and the Mediterranean region. In contrast, a widespread summer shortening occurred for the 1950–78 period. The reported changes in the summer length are in agreement with temperature trends during June and September, which affect the summer onset and end dates.
It is shown that the shortening and lengthening with a turning point around 1979 is a leading mode of the summer length multidecadal variability. The trends in the summer length can be explained by the superposition of an Atlantic multidecadal oscillation signal and a long-term trend toward more persistent summers in Europe associated with global warming.
Journal Article
Quasi-biennial oscillation modulation of stratospheric water vapour in the Asian monsoon
The Asian monsoon (AM) plays a key role in the transport of water vapour to the lower stratosphere and contributes significantly to the wet phase of the annual global stratospheric water vapour cycle. Although it is known that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is one of the main drivers of the interannual variability in the AM water vapour, the physical mechanisms responsible for this variability remain unclear. Here we have used daily microwave limb sounder data for the period 2005–2020 to characterize the QBO signature on the lower stratosphere AM water vapour during the boreal summer. We show that the QBO has the strongest impact during August, when QBO westerly minus QBO easterly differences may reach 1 ppmv at 100 hPa, although a significant signature is also observed during July. We find that the region whose temperature controls the QBO signal on water vapour over the AM differs between July and August. In July, when the key region is over the tropical Indian Ocean, the QBO modulation of the AM water vapour occurs in phase with the signal over the Equator, whereas in August, when the key region is at the subtropics, over the southern edge of the monsoon, the signal over the AM is opposite to that over the Equator. Our results reveal that the QBO signal on the temperature on the south side of the AM anticyclone, which ultimately has an impact on AM water vapour, is, in turn, modulated by the QBO impact on tropical clouds. Thus, we find that the QBO signature on clouds over the eastern Indian Ocean gives rise to Rossby wave trains that produce variations in the circulation over the southern side of the AM anticyclone such that weaker anticyclone over this region generates an increase in water vapour, and vice versa.
Journal Article
Effect of Environmental Factors on Low Weight in Non-Premature Births: A Time Series Analysis
Exposure to pollutants during pregnancy has been related to adverse birth outcomes. LBW can give rise to lifelong impairments. Prematurity is the leading cause of LBW, yet few studies have attempted to analyse how environmental factors can influence LBW in infants who are not premature. This study therefore sought to analyse the influence of air pollution, noise levels and temperature on LBW in non-premature births in Madrid during the period 2001-2009.
Ecological time-series study to assess the impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3 concentrations, noise levels, and temperatures on LBW among non-premature infants across the period 2001-2009. Our analysis extended to infants having birth weights of 1,500 g to 2,500 g (VLBW) and less than 1,500 g (ELBW). Environmental variables were lagged until 37 weeks with respect to the date of birth, and cross-correlation functions were used to identify explaining lags. Results were quantified using Poisson regression models.
Across the study period 298,705 births were registered in Madrid, 3,290 of which had LBW; of this latter total, 1,492 were non-premature. PM2.5 was the only pollutant to show an association with the three variables of LBW in non-premature births. This association occurred at around the third month of gestation for LBW and VLBW (LBW: lag 23 and VLBW: lag 25), and at around the eighth month of gestation for ELBW (lag 6). Leqd was linked to LBW at lag zero. The RR of PM2.5 on LBW was 1.01 (1.00 1.03). The RR of Leqd on LBW was 1.09 (0.99 1.19)(p<0.1).
The results obtained indicate that PM2.5 had influence on LBW. The adoption of measures aimed at reducing the number of vehicles would serve to lower pregnant women's exposure. In the case of noise should be limited the exposure to high levels during the final weeks of pregnancy.
Journal Article
The steady enhancement of the Australian Summer Monsoon in the last 200 years
A new bicentennial series of the Australian monsoon strength based on historical wind observations has allowed for the assessment of the variability of this system since the early 19th century. Our series covers a period in which the scarcity of meteorological observations in the area had precluded the evaluation of long-term climatic trends. Results indicate that the increase in precipitation over Northern Australia reported for the last 60 years is just a manifestation of a much longer lasting trend related to the strengthening of the Australian monsoon that has been occurring since at least 1816.
Journal Article
Understanding boreal summer UTLS water vapor variations in monsoon regions: a Lagrangian perspective
Water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere plays a crucial role for climate, affecting radiation, chemistry, and atmospheric dynamics. This study applies a simplified Lagrangian method to reconstruct stratospheric water vapor based on satellite observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). The objective is to improve understanding of moisture enhancements in the Asian and North American monsoons and to identify the key factors contributing to reconstruction biases. The performance of Lagrangian reconstructions significantly improves with the size of trajectory ensembles but exhibits a general dry bias. The reconstruction represents the summertime local water vapor maximum well in the Asian monsoon, particularly above the tropopause, but not in the North American monsoon. The main dehydration region diagnosed from trajectories indicates that water vapor in the Asian monsoon is predominantly controlled by local tropopause temperatures. The dry bias in reconstructions below the tropopause over the Asian monsoon shows a positive correlation with convection intensity, particularly in the western part of the monsoon region, suggesting that underestimated moistening from convection may contribute to this bias. Water vapor mixing ratios in the North American monsoon are largely influenced by long-range transport from dehydrated regions over southern Asia and additional local moistening. The limited performance of reconstructions in the North American monsoon is therefore likely linked to underestimation of local convection or uncertainties in long-range transport.
Journal Article
Dynamic human liver proteome atlas reveals functional insights into disease pathways
Deeper understanding of liver pathophysiology would benefit from a comprehensive quantitative proteome resource at cell type resolution to predict outcome and design therapy. Here, we quantify more than 150,000 sequence‐unique peptides aggregated into 10,000 proteins across total liver, the major liver cell types, time course of primary cell cultures, and liver disease states. Bioinformatic analysis reveals that half of hepatocyte protein mass is comprised of enzymes and 23% of mitochondrial proteins, twice the proportion of other liver cell types. Using primary cell cultures, we capture dynamic proteome remodeling from tissue states to cell line states, providing useful information for biological or pharmaceutical research. Our extensive data serve as spectral library to characterize a human cohort of non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis and cirrhosis. Dramatic proteome changes in liver tissue include signatures of hepatic stellate cell activation resembling liver cirrhosis and providing functional insights. We built a web‐based dashboard application for the interactive exploration of our resource (
www.liverproteome.org
).
Synopsis
In‐depth acquisition and analysis of quantitative human liver proteome reveals proteome differences between liver cell types, proteome dynamics during primary cell culture and proteome changes in liver cirrhosis and NASH. This resource can be explored at
www.liverproteome.org
.
The study presents a cell‐type resolved liver proteome with copy numbers for 10,500 proteins.
Time‐course analysis of human liver primary cells uncovers functional proteome shifts.
A human cohort study reveals liver proteome changes in NASH and cirrhosis.
An interactive web portal (
www.liverproteome.org
) integrates the results for easy exploration.
Graphical Abstract
In‐depth acquisition and analysis of quantitative human liver proteome reveals proteome differences between liver cell types, proteome dynamics during primary cell culture and proteome changes in liver cirrhosis and NASH. This resource can be explored at
www.liverproteome.org
.
Journal Article
Tracking the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset Back to the Preinstrument Period
The Indian summer monsoon onset is one of the most expected meteorological events of the world, affecting the lives of hundreds ofmillions of people. The India Meteorological Department has dated themonsoon onset since 1901, but its original methodology was considered subjective and it was updated in 2006. Unfortunately, the new method relies on OLR measurements, which impedes the construction of an objective onset series before the 1970s. An alternative approach is the use of the wind field, but the development of such an index is limited to the period covered by reanalysis products. In this paper historical wind records taken on board ships are used to develop a new onset series using onlywind direction measurements, providing an objective record of the onset since the late nineteenth century. The new series captures the rapid precipitation increase associated with the onset, correlates well with previous approaches, and is robust against anomalous (bogus) onsets. A tendency for later-than-average onsets during the 1900–25 and 1970–90 periods and earlier-than-average onsets between 1940 and 1965 was found. A relatively stable relationship between ENSO and Indian monsoon onset dates was found; however, this link tends to be weaker during decades characterized by prevalent La Niña conditions. Furthermore, it was found that the link between the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the onset date is limited to the phases characterized by a shift from negative to positive PDO phases.
Journal Article