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In the current paper, we investigate the predictive ability of Goldstone’s demographic structural model. In particular we seek to apply Turchin’s version of it to modeling the social pressures for political instability in the UK. It is then demonstrated that Turchin’s analysis of ‘demographic structural’ pressures in the US presents similar conditions that developed under neoliberalism during the same time periods in both countries. It is also demonstrated that the modeling of social pressures toward political instability in the UK and the USA performed by Peter Turchin and us can throw some light on the factors and patterns of the global sociopolitical destabilization wave of the 2010s. Thus, Goldstone’s demographic structural model might have some predictive potential not only at the national level, but also global scale.

Allelic variability in the adaptive immune receptor loci, which harbor the gene segments that encode B cell and T cell receptors (BCR/TCR), has been shown to be of critical importance for immune responses to pathogens and vaccines. In recent years, B cell and T cell receptor repertoire sequencing (Rep-Seq) has become widespread in immunology research making it the most readily available source of information about allelic diversity in immunoglobulin (IG) and T cell receptor (TR) loci in different populations. Here we present a novel algorithm for extra-sensitive and specific variable (V) and joining (J) gene allele inference and genotyping allowing reconstruction of individual high-quality gene segment libraries. The approach can be applied for inferring allelic variants from peripheral blood lymphocyte BCR and TCR repertoire sequencing data, including hypermutated isotype-switched BCR sequences, thus allowing high-throughput genotyping and novel allele discovery from a wide variety of existing datasets. The developed algorithm is a part of the MiXCR software ( https://mixcr.com ) and can be incorporated into any pipeline utilizing upstream processing with MiXCR. We demonstrate the accuracy of this approach using Rep-Seq paired with long-read genomic sequencing data, comparing it to a widely used algorithm, TIgGER. We applied the algorithm to a large set of IG heavy chain (IGH) Rep-Seq data from 450 donors of ancestrally diverse population groups, and to the largest reported full-length TCR alpha and beta chain (TRA; TRB) Rep-Seq dataset, representing 134 individuals. This allowed us to assess the genetic diversity of genes within the IGH, TRA and TRB loci in different populations and demonstrate the connection between antibody repertoire gene usage and the number of allelic variants present in the population. Finally we established a database of allelic variants of V and J genes inferred from Rep-Seq data and their population frequencies with free public access at https://vdj.online .