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Prediction of the dynamics of new SARS-CoV-2 infections during the current COVID-19 pandemic is critical for public health planning of efficient health care allocation and monitoring the effects of policy interventions. We describe a new approach that forecasts the number of incident cases in the near future given past occurrences using only a small number of assumptions. Our approach to forecasting future COVID-19 cases involves 1) modeling the observed incidence cases using a Poisson distribution for the daily incidence number, and a gamma distribution for the series interval; 2) estimating the effective reproduction number assuming its value stays constant during a short time interval; and 3) drawing future incidence cases from their posterior distributions, assuming that the current transmission rate will stay the same, or change by a certain degree. We apply our method to predicting the number of new COVID-19 cases in a single state in the U.S. and for a subset of counties within the state to demonstrate the utility of this method at varying scales of prediction. Our method produces reasonably accurate results when the effective reproduction number is distributed similarly in the future as in the past. Large deviations from the predicted results can imply that a change in policy or some other factors have occurred that have dramatically altered the disease transmission over time. We presented a modelling approach that we believe can be easily adopted by others, and immediately useful for local or state planning.

Understanding, categorizing, and using implementation science theories, models, and frameworks is a complex undertaking. The issues involved are even more challenging given the large number of frameworks and that some of them evolve significantly over time. As a consequence, researchers and practitioners may be unintentionally mischaracterizing frameworks or basing actions and conclusions on outdated versions of a framework. This paper addresses how the RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance) framework has been described, summarizes how the model has evolved over time, and identifies and corrects several misconceptions. We address 13 specific areas where misconceptions have been noted concerning the use of RE-AIM and summarize current guidance on these issues. We also discuss key changes to RE-AIM over the past 20 years, including the evolution to Pragmatic Robust Implementation and Sustainability Model, and provide resources for potential users to guide application of the framework. RE-AIM and many other theories and frameworks have evolved, been misunderstood, and sometimes been misapplied. To some degree, this is inevitable, but we conclude by suggesting some actions that reviewers, framework developers, and those selecting or applying frameworks can do to prevent or alleviate these problems.

Neighborhood environments have been increasingly associated with incidents of falling and the fear of falling. However, little is known about the causal impact of neighborhood environments on falling. This study identifies whether changes in outdoor environmental attributes over a one-year period are associated with the occurrence of recent falls among community-dwelling older adults aged 65 and older in the United States. Data were obtained from 4802 adults aged 65 years or older from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS). Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify neighborhood risk factors linked to the odds of experiencing recent falls at the one-year follow-up. Almost one in ten subjects (9.7% of 4802 subjects) who had not fallen before reported experiencing recent falls after one year. After adjusting for sociodemographic, health, and walking-related behavioral covariates, these subjects were more likely to reside in areas with higher environmental barriers on sidewalks/streets and uneven walking surfaces or broken steps, compared to non-fallers. Our findings suggest that safe and well-maintained outdoor environments may help prevent falls among community-dwelling older adults who engage in outdoor activities. Clinical and environmental interventions for promoting both safe walking and safe environments are warranted.

Objective This study will identify factors associated with higher hemoglobin A1c (A1c) values and diabetes-related costs among commercially insured adults in Texas diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Research design and methods This secondary data analysis was based on claims data from commercially insured individuals 18-64 years of age residing in Texas with diagnosed type 2 diabetes during the 2018-2019 study period. The final analysis sample after all the exclusions consisted of 34,992 individuals. Measures included hemoglobin A1c, diabetes-related costs, Charlson Comorbidity Index, diabetes-related complications, rurality and other socioeconomic characteristics. Longitudinal A1c measurements were modeled using age, sex, rurality, comorbidity, and diabetes-related complications in generalized linear longitudinal regression models adjusting the observation time, which was one of the 8 quarters in 2018 and 2019. The diabetes-related costs were similarly modeled in both univariable and multivariable generalized linear longitudinal regression models adjusting the observation time by calendar quarters and covariates. Results The median A1c value was 7, and the median quarterly diabetes-related cost was $120. A positive statistically significant relationship (p = < .0001) was found between A1c levels and diabetes-related costs, although this trend slowed down as A1c levels exceeded 8.0%. Higher A1c values were associated with being male, having diabetes-related complications, and living in rural areas. Higher costs were associated with higher A1c values, older age, and higher Charlson Comorbidity Index scores. Conclusion The study adds updated analyses of the interrelationships among demographic and geographic factors, clinical indicators, and health-related costs, reinforcing the role of higher A1c values and complications as diabetes-related cost drivers.

A personal reflection by noted social gerontologist, Marcia G. Ory, who provides insights on the field of gerontology and her nearly 50-year career trajectory at the intersection of aging and public health. She discusses her personal and professional journey, with callouts to mentors. Her review emphasizes stabilities and changes in the study of healthy aging, and the lifelong relevance of core principles of aging. This reflection applauds social gerontologists who have led the charge to reimagine aging.

Background: Emerging health care reform initiatives are of growing importance amidst concerns about providing care to increasing numbers of adults with multiple chronic conditions. Evidence-based self-management strategies are recognized as central to managing a variety of chronic diseases by improving the medical, emotional, and social role management demands of chronic conditions. Objectives: To examine the effectiveness of the Chronic Disease Self-Management Program (CDSMP) among a national sample of participants organized around the Triple Aim goals of better health, better health care, and better value in terms of reduced health care utilization. Research Design: Utilizing data collected from small-group CDSMP workshops, baseline, 6-month, and 12-month assessments were examined using 3 types of mixed-effects models to provide unbiased estimates of intervention effects. Subjects: Data were analyzed from 1170 community-dwelling CDSMP participants. Measures: Triple Aim-related outcome measures: better health (eg, self-reported health, pain, fatigue, depression), better health care (eg, patient-physician communication, medication compliance, confidence completing medical forms), and better value [eg, reductions in emergency room (ER) visits and hospitalizations in the past 6 mo]. Results: Significant improvements for all better health and better health care outcome measures were observed from baseline to 12-month follow-up. The odds of ER visits significantly reduced from baseline to 12-month follow-up, whereas significant reductions in hospitalization were only observed from baseline to 6-month follow-up. Conclusions: This National Study of CDSMP (National Study) demonstrates the successful translation of CDSMP into widespread practice and its potential for helping the nation achieve the triple aims of health care reform.

Background Among the most studied evidence-based programs, the Chronic Disease Self-Management Program (CDSMP) has been shown to help participants improve their health behaviors, health outcomes, and reduce healthcare utilization. However, there is a lack of information on how CDSMP, when nationally disseminated, impacts healthcare utilization and averts healthcare costs. The purposes of this study were to: 1) document reductions in healthcare utilization among national CDSMP participants; 2) calculate potential cost savings associated with emergency room (ER) visits and hospitalizations; and 3) extrapolate the cost savings estimation to the American adults. Methods The national study of CDSMP surveyed 1,170 community-dwelling CDSMP participants at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months from 22 organizations in 17 states. The procedure used to estimate potential cost savings included: 1) examining the pattern of healthcare utilization among CDSMP participants from self-reported healthcare utilization assessed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months; 2) calculating age-adjusted average costs for persons using the 2010 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey; 3) calculating costs saved from reductions in healthcare utilization; 4) estimating per participant program costs; 5) computing potential cost savings by deducting program costs from estimated healthcare savings; and 6) extrapolating savings to national populations using Census data combined with national health statistics. Results Findings from analyses showed significant reductions in ER visits (5%) at both the 6-month and 12-month assessments as well as hospitalizations (3%) at 6 months among national CDSMP participants. This equates to potential net savings of $364 per participant and a national savings of $3.3 billion if 5% of adults with one or more chronic conditions were reached. Conclusions Findings emphasize the value of public health tertiary prevention interventions and the need for policies to support widespread adoption of CDSMP.

Background The long-term growth and sustained high prevalence of obesity in the US is likely to increase the burden of Type 2 diabetes. Hispanic individuals are particularly burdened by a larger share of diabetes than non-Hispanic White individuals. Given the existing health disparities facing this population, we aimed to examine the effectiveness and potential cost savings of the Diabetes Education Program (DEP) offered as part of Healthy South Texas, a state-legislated initiative to reduce health disparities in 27 counties in South Texas with a high proportion of Hispanic adults. Methods DEP is an 8-h interactive workshop taught in English and Spanish. After the workshop, participants receive quarterly biometric screenings and continuing education with a health educator for one year. Data were analyzed from 3859 DEP participants with Type 2 diabetes living in South Texas at five time points (baseline, 3-months, 6-months, 9-months, 12-months). The primary outcome variable of interest for study analyses was A1c. A series of independent sample t-tests and linear mixed-model regression analyses were used to identify changes over time. Two methods were then applied to estimate healthcare costs savings associated with A1c reductions among participants. Results The majority of participants were ages 45–64 years (58%), female (60%), Hispanic (66%), and had a high school education or less (75%). At baseline, the average hemoglobin A1c was 8.57%. The most substantial reductions in hemoglobin A1c were identified from baseline to 3-month follow-up ( P  < 0.001); however, the reduction in A1c remained significant from baseline to 12-month follow-up (P < 0.001). The healthcare cost savings associated with improved A1c for the program was estimated to be between $5.3 to $5.6 million over a two to three year period. Conclusion Findings support the effectiveness of DEP with ongoing follow-up for sustained diabetes risk management. While such interventions foster clinical-community collaboration and can improve patient adherence to recommended lifestyle behaviors, opportunities exist to complement DEP with other resources and services to enhance program benefits. Policy makers and other key stakeholders can assess the lessons learned in this effort to tailor and expand similar initiatives to potentially at-risk populations. Trial registration This community-based intervention is not considered a trial by ICMJE definitions, and has not be registered as such.

We examined the measurement and mediating role of social support in dietary intake among participants in Texercise Select, an intervention for improving lifestyle behaviours. Quasi-experimental study. Participants reported their dietary intake, level of social support measured by the new Social Support for Healthy Eating scale, sociodemographics and disease profile. We conducted exploratory factor analysis for scale evaluation and structural equation modelling for mediation analysis to test if changes in dietary-specific social support mediate the relationship between the intervention and changes in dietary intake. Texas. Community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults completed a self-reported survey at baseline and 3-month follow-up (intervention group n 211, comparison group n 175). The majority of the sample was aged ≥70 years (mean 74·30, sd 8·54), female (82·1 %) and had at least two chronic conditions (63·5 %). The acceptable levels of reliability and validity of the dietary-specific social support scale were confirmed. Compared with the comparison group, the intervention group reported improved intake of fruit/vegetables and water, and improved dietary-specific social support. Improved dietary-specific social support mediated the association between intervention and change in fruit/vegetable intake, controlling for sociodemographics, number of chronic conditions and geographic residence. About 12 % of intervention effect was mediated by social support. The current study confirms positive intervention effects on healthy eating, and highlights social support relating to dietary behaviours that may be helpful for healthy eating. Future research should investigate additional social support for developing healthy eating behavioural skills.

Physical activity declines are seen with increasing age; however, the US CDC recommends most older adults (age 65 and older) engage in the same levels of physical activity as those 18-64 to lessen risks of injuries (e.g., falls) and slow deteriorating health. We aimed to identify whether older adults participating in a short (approx. 90-minute sessions) 20 session (approximately 10-weeks) health and wellness program delivered in a community setting saw improvements in physical activity and whether these were sustained over time. Employing a non-equivalent group design, community-dwelling older adults were purposely recruited into either an intervention or comparison group. The intervention was a multicomponent lifestyle enhancement intervention focused on healthy eating and physical activity, including structured physical activity exercises within the class sessions. Two groups were included: intervention (survey group: n = 65; accelerometer subgroup: n = 38) and the comparison group (survey group: n = 102; accelerometer subgroup: n = 55). Measurements were made at baseline and approximately three months later to reflect immediate post-treatment period (survey, accelerometer) with long-term follow-up 6 months after baseline (survey). Adults not meeting the physical activity guidelines (i.e., 150/75 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity or MVPA) were targeted for subgroup analyses. Paired t-tests were used for bivariate comparisons, while repeated measures random coefficient models (adjusting for propensity scores using inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) estimation) were used for multivariate models. Estimated medical costs associated with gains in physical activity were also measured among survey respondents in the intervention group. The accelerometer group contained 38 participants in the intervention group with 71% insufficiently active at baseline and 55 participants in the comparison group with 76% insufficiently active at baseline (<150 weekly MVPA minutes). The survey group contained 65 participants in the intervention group with 73.85% insufficiently active at baseline and 102 participants in the comparison group with 76.47% insufficiently active at baseline. In paired t-tests with the accelerometer group, a moderate effect size (-0.4727, p = 0.0210) indicating higher MVPA was found for intervention participants with <150 weekly MVPA at baseline. In fully adjusted analyses using propensity score matching, among the subjectively measured physical activity (survey) group, there was a differential impact from baseline to 6-month post among the intervention group with an improvement of 160 minutes among all study participants (p < .0001) versus no difference among the comparison group. For those insufficiently active at baseline, there was an improvement of 103 minutes among intervention (p < .0001) and 55 minutes among the comparison (p < .0001) with the improvement of the intervention significantly greater than that among the comparison (p = 0.0224). Further, among those insufficiently active at baseline there was a relative cost savings from baseline to 6-months over and above the estimated cost of the intervention estimated between $143 and $164 per participant. This intervention was able to reach and retain older adults and showed significant MVPA gains and estimated medical cost savings among more at-risk individuals (baseline <150 MVPA). This intervention can be used in practice as a strategy to improve MVPA among the growing population of older community-dwelling adults.