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Current models of progression in neurodegenerative diseases use neuroimaging measures that are averaged across pre-defined regions of interest (ROIs). Such models are unable to recover fine details of atrophy patterns; they tend to impose an assumption of strong spatial correlation within each ROI and no correlation among ROIs. Such assumptions may be violated by the influence of underlying brain network connectivity on pathology propagation – a strong hypothesis e.g. in Alzheimer's Disease. Here we present DIVE: Data-driven Inference of Vertexwise Evolution. DIVE is an image-based disease progression model with single-vertex resolution, designed to reconstruct long-term patterns of brain pathology from short-term longitudinal data sets. DIVE clusters vertex-wise (i.e. point-wise) biomarker measurements on the cortical surface that have similar temporal dynamics across a patient population, and concurrently estimates an average trajectory of vertex measurements in each cluster. DIVE uniquely outputs a parcellation of the cortex into areas with common progression patterns, leading to a new signature for individual diseases. DIVE further estimates the disease stage and progression speed for every visit of every subject, potentially enhancing stratification for clinical trials or management. On simulated data, DIVE can recover ground truth clusters and their underlying trajectory, provided the average trajectories are sufficiently different between clusters. We demonstrate DIVE on data from two cohorts: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the Dementia Research Centre (DRC), UK. The DRC cohort contains patients with Posterior Cortical Atrophy (PCA) as well as typical Alzheimer's disease (tAD). DIVE finds similar spatial patterns of atrophy for tAD subjects in the two independent datasets (ADNI and DRC), and further reveals distinct patterns of pathology in different diseases (tAD vs PCA) and for distinct types of biomarker data – cortical thickness from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) vs amyloid load from Positron Emission Tomography (PET). We demonstrate that DIVE stages have potential clinical relevance, despite being based only on imaging data, by showing that the stages correlate with cognitive test scores. Finally, DIVE can be used to estimate a fine-grained spatial distribution of pathology in the brain using any kind of voxelwise or vertexwise measures including Jacobian compression maps, fractional anisotropy (FA) maps from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) or other PET measures. [Display omitted] •DIVE estimates fine-grained spatial patterns of pathology in neurodegenerative diseases, not available with ROI-based methods.•Further estimates the temporal evolution of brain pathology and subject specific disease stages.•Forecasts the evolution of pathology at population- and subject-level.•Finds plausible patterns of pathology in four distinct datasets comprising different diseases and modalities.•DIVE, available online, can be applied to any registered voxelwise images (e.g.MRI, PET, DTI).

•Three consistent atrophy subtypes were found in both ADNI and UK biobank datasets.•High consistency in individuals’ subtype and stage assignment under different models.•Data harmonization is essential to achieve successful model transfer.•The typical subtype shows the most AD-like CSF biomarker profile.•Cholesterol and blood pressure medications are associated with subtypes. In the past, methods to subtype or biotype patients using brain imaging data have been developed. However, it is unclear whether and how these trained machine learning models can be successfully applied to population cohorts to study the genetic and lifestyle factors underpinning these subtypes. This work, using the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) algorithm, examines the generalisability of data-driven Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression models. We first compared SuStaIn models trained separately on Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI) data and an AD-at-risk population constructed from the UK Biobank dataset. We further applied data harmonization techniques to remove cohort effects. Next, we built SuStaIn models on the harmonized datasets, which were then used to subtype and stage subjects in the other harmonized dataset. The first key finding is that three consistent atrophy subtypes were found in both datasets, which match the previously identified subtype progression patterns in AD: ‘typical’, ‘cortical’ and ‘subcortical’. Next, the subtype agreement was further supported by high consistency in individuals’ subtypes and stage assignment based on the different models: more than 92% of the subjects, with reliable subtype assignment in both ADNI and UK Biobank dataset, were assigned to an identical subtype under the model built on the different datasets. The successful transferability of AD atrophy progression subtypes across cohorts capturing different phases of disease development enabled further investigations of associations between AD atrophy subtypes and risk factors. Our study showed that (1) the average age is highest in the typical subtype and lowest in the subcortical subtype; (2) the typical subtype is associated with statistically more-AD-like cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers values in comparison to the other two subtypes; and (3) in comparison to the subcortical subtype, the cortical subtype subjects are more likely to associate with prescription of cholesterol and high blood pressure medications. In summary, we presented cross-cohort consistent recovery of AD atrophy subtypes, showing how the same subtypes arise even in cohorts capturing substantially different disease phases. Our study opened opportunities for future detailed investigations of atrophy subtypes with a broad range of early risk factors, which will potentially lead to a better understanding of the disease aetiology and the role of lifestyle and behaviour on AD.

•We evaluated grand challenges on machine learning and neuroimaging in dementia.•The seven challenges were complementary regarding clinical questions and tasks.•Statistical analysis of factors improving performance could improve future challenges.•Impact would increase by clinical questions and data beyond Alzheimer’s disease.•Grand challenges provide an opportunity for cross-cohort performance evaluation. Machine learning methods exploiting multi-parametric biomarkers, especially based on neuroimaging, have huge potential to improve early diagnosis of dementia and to predict which individuals are at-risk of developing dementia. To benchmark algorithms in the field of machine learning and neuroimaging in dementia and assess their potential for use in clinical practice and clinical trials, seven grand challenges have been organized in the last decade: MIRIAD (2012), Alzheimer’s Disease Big Data DREAM (2014), CADDementia (2014), Machine Learning Challenge (2014), MCI Neuroimaging (2017), TADPOLE (2017), and the Predictive Analytics Competition (2019). Based on two challenge evaluation frameworks, we analyzed how these grand challenges are complementing each other regarding research questions, datasets, validation approaches, results and impact. The seven grand challenges addressed questions related to screening, clinical status estimation, prediction and monitoring in (pre-clinical) dementia. There was little overlap in clinical questions, tasks and performance metrics. Whereas this aids providing insight on a broad range of questions, it also limits the validation of results across challenges. The validation process itself was mostly comparable between challenges, using similar methods for ensuring objective comparison, uncertainty estimation and statistical testing. In general, winning algorithms performed rigorous data pre-processing and combined a wide range of input features. Despite high state-of-the-art performances, most of the methods evaluated by the challenges are not clinically used. To increase impact, future challenges could pay more attention to statistical analysis of which factors (i.e., features, models) relate to higher performance, to clinical questions beyond Alzheimer’s disease, and to using testing data beyond the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Grand challenges would be an ideal venue for assessing the generalizability of algorithm performance to unseen data of other cohorts. Key for increasing impact in this way are larger testing data sizes, which could be reached by sharing algorithms rather than data to exploit data that cannot be shared. Given the potential and lessons learned in the past ten years, we are excited by the prospects of grand challenges in machine learning and neuroimaging for the next ten years and beyond.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers are vital for multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical research and trials but quantifying them requires multi-contrast protocols and limits the use of abundant single-contrast hospital archives. We developed MindGlide, a deep learning model to extract brain region and white matter lesion volumes from any single MRI contrast. We trained MindGlide on 4247 brain MRI scans from 2934 MS patients across 592 scanners, and externally validated it using 14,952 scans from 1,001 patients in two clinical trials (primary-progressive MS and secondary-progressive MS trials) and a routine-care MS dataset. The model outperformed two state-of-the-art models when tested against expert-labelled lesion volumes. In clinical trials, MindGlide detected treatment effects on T2-lesion accrual and cortical and deep grey matter volume loss. In routine-care data, T2-lesion volume increased with moderate-efficacy treatment but remained stable with high-efficacy treatment. MindGlide uniquely enables quantitative analysis of archival single-contrast MRIs, unlocking insights from untapped hospital datasets. Here, the authors develop an AI tool called MindGlide that can extract key information from brain images acquired as part of the routine care of multiple-sclerosis patients to help interpret treatment effects, which previously required manual analysis.

Sporadic Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (sCJD) is a transmissible brain proteinopathy. Five main clinicopathological subtypes (sCJD-MM(V)1, -MM(V)2C, -MV2K, -VV1, and -VV2) are currently distinguished. Histopathological evidence suggests that the localisation of prion aggregates and spongiform lesions varies among subtypes. Establishing whether there is an initial site with detectable imaging abnormalities (epicentre) and an order of lesion propagation would be informative for disease early diagnosis, patient staging, management and recruitment in clinical trials. Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the most-used and most-sensitive test to detect spongiform degeneration. This study was designed to identify, in vivo and for the first time, subtype-dependent epicentre and lesion propagation in the brain using diffusion-weighted images (DWI), in the largest known cross-sectional dataset of autopsy-proven subjects with sCJD. We estimate lesion propagation by cross-sectional DWI using event-based modelling, a well-established data-driven technique. DWI abnormalities of 594 autopsy-diagnosed subjects (448 patients with sCJD) were scored in 12 brain regions by 1 neuroradiologist blind to the diagnosis. We used the event-based model to reconstruct sequential orderings of lesion propagation in each of five pure subtypes. Follow-up data from 151 patients validated the estimated sequences. Results showed that epicentre and ordering of lesion propagation are subtype specific. The two most common subtypes (-MM1 and -VV2) showed opposite ordering of DWI abnormality appearance: from the neocortex to subcortical regions, and vice versa, respectively. The precuneus was the most likely epicentre also in -MM2 and -VV1 although at variance with -MM1, abnormal signal was also detected early in cingulate and insular cortices. The caudal-rostral sequence of lesion propagation that characterises -VV2 was replicated in -MV2K. Combined, these data-driven models provide unprecedented dynamic insights into subtype-specific epicentre at onset and propagation of the pathologic process, which may also enhance early diagnosis and enable disease staging in sCJD.

•Snowphlake: a two-step approach that identifies AD subtypes and atrophy-event sequences within each subtype.•Snowphlake and SuStaIn identified four AD atrophy subtypes that linked to distinct symptom profiles.•Low concordance between methods suggests AD heterogeneity may reflect a spectrum rather than distinct subtypes. Previous studies identified atrophy-based Alzheimer's disease(AD) subtypes linked to distinct clinical symptoms, but their consistency across subtyping approaches remains unclear. This large-scale study evaluates subtype concordance using two data-driven approaches. In this work, we analyzed data from n=10,011 patients across 10 AD cohorts spanning Europe, the US, and Australia, extracting regional volumes using Freesurfer. To characterize atrophy heterogeneity in the AD continuum, we developed a two-step approach, Snowphlake (Staging NeurOdegeneration With PHenotype informed progression timeLine of biomarKErs), to identify subtypes and atrophy-event sequences within each subtype. Results were compared with SuStaIn (Subtype and Stage Inference), which jointly estimates subtypes and staging, using similar training and validation. Training included Aβ+ participants (n=1,195) and Aβ− cognitively unimpaired controls (n=1,692). We validated model-staging in a held-out clinical dataset (n=6,362) and an independent dataset (n=762), and assessed clinical significance in Aβ+ subsets(n=1,796 held-out; n=159 external). Concordance analysis evaluated consistency between methods. In the AD dementia(AD-D) training data, both Snowphlake and SuStaIn identified four subtypes. In the validation datasets, staging with both methods correlated with Mini-Mental State Examination(MMSE) scores. The Snowphlake subtypes assigned in Aβ+ validation datasets were associated with alterations in specific cognitive domains(Cohen’s f:[0.15−0.33]). Similarly, the SuStaIn subtypes were also associated specific cognitive domains(Cohen’s f:[0.17−0.34]). However, we observed low concordance between Snowphlake and SuStaIn, with 39.7% of AD-D patients grouped in concordant subtypes by both methods. In conclusion, Snowphlake and SuStaIn identified four atrophy-based subtypes that linked to distinct symptom profiles. While this highlights that the neuro-anatomically defined subtypes also meaningfully associate with different cognitive impairments at a group level, the low concordance between methods suggests that future research is needed to better understand the biological and methodological factors contributing to the observed variability.

Progress in dementia research has been limited, with substantial gaps in our knowledge of targets for prevention, mechanisms for disease progression, and disease-modifying treatments. The growing availability of multimodal data sets opens possibilities for the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to help answer key questions in the field. We provide an overview of the state of the science, highlighting current challenges and opportunities for utilisation of AI approaches to move the field forward in the areas of genetics, experimental medicine, drug discovery and trials optimisation, imaging, and prevention. Machine learning methods can enhance results of genetic studies, help determine biological effects and facilitate the identification of drug targets based on genetic and transcriptomic information. The use of unsupervised learning for understanding disease mechanisms for drug discovery is promising, while analysis of multimodal data sets to characterise and quantify disease severity and subtype are also beginning to contribute to optimisation of clinical trial recruitment. Data-driven experimental medicine is needed to analyse data across modalities and develop novel algorithms to translate insights from animal models to human disease biology. AI methods in neuroimaging outperform traditional approaches for diagnostic classification, and although challenges around validation and translation remain, there is optimism for their meaningful integration to clinical practice in the near future. AI-based models can also clarify our understanding of the causality and commonality of dementia risk factors, informing and improving risk prediction models along with the development of preventative interventions. The complexity and heterogeneity of dementia requires an alternative approach beyond traditional design and analytical approaches. Although not yet widely used in dementia research, machine learning and AI have the potential to unlock current challenges and advance precision dementia medicine.

Background Understanding the earliest manifestations of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is key to realising disease-modifying treatments. Advances in neuroimaging and fluid biomarkers have improved our ability to identify AD pathology in vivo. The critical next step is improved detection and staging of early cognitive change. We studied an asymptomatic familial Alzheimer’s disease (FAD) cohort to characterise preclinical cognitive change. Methods Data included 35 asymptomatic participants at 50% risk of carrying a pathogenic FAD mutation. Participants completed a multi-domain neuropsychology battery. After accounting for sex, age and education, we used event-based modelling to estimate the sequence of cognitive decline in presymptomatic FAD, and uncertainty in the sequence. We assigned individuals to their most likely model stage of cumulative cognitive decline, given their data. Linear regression of estimated years to symptom onset against model stage was used to estimate the timing of preclinical cognitive decline. Results Cognitive change in mutation carriers was first detected in measures of accelerated long-term forgetting, up to 10 years before estimated symptom onset. Measures of subjective cognitive decline also revealed early abnormalities. Our data-driven model demonstrated subtle cognitive impairment across multiple cognitive domains in clinically normal individuals on the AD continuum. Conclusions Data-driven modelling of neuropsychological test scores has potential to differentiate cognitive decline from cognitive stability and to estimate a fine-grained sequence of decline across cognitive domains and functions, in the preclinical phase of Alzheimer’s disease. This can improve the design of future presymptomatic trials by informing enrichment strategies and guiding the selection of outcome measures.

Recent clinical trials on slowing dementia progression have led to renewed focus on finding safer, more effective treatments. One approach to identify plausible candidates is to assess whether existing medications for other conditions may affect dementia risk. We conducted a systematic review to identify studies adopting a data‐driven approach to investigate the association between a wide range of prescribed medications and dementia risk. We included 14 studies using administrative or medical records data for more than 130 million individuals and 1 million dementia cases. Despite inconsistencies in identifying specific drugs that may modify Alzheimer's or dementia risk, some themes emerged for drug classes with biological plausibility. Antimicrobials, vaccinations, and anti‐inflammatories were associated with reduced risk, while diabetes drugs, vitamins and supplements, and antipsychotics were associated with increased risk. We found conflicting evidence for antihypertensives and antidepressants. Drug repurposing for use in dementia is an urgent priority. Our findings offer a basis for prioritizing candidates and exploring underlying mechanisms. Highlights ·We present a systematic review of studies reporting association between drugs prescribed for other conditions and risk of dementia including 139 million people and 1 million cases of dementia. ·Our work supports some previously reported associations, for example, showing decreased risk of dementia with drugs to treat inflammatory disease and increased risk with antipsychotic treatment. ·Antimicrobial treatment was perhaps more surprisingly associated with decreased risk, supportive of recent increased interest in this potential therapeutic avenue. ·Our work should help prioritize drugs for entry into adaptive platform trials in Alzheimer's disease and will serve as a useful resource for those investigating drugs or classes of drugs and risk of dementia.

The spatial distribution of atrophy in neurodegenerative diseases suggests that brain connectivity mediates disease propagation. Different descriptors of the connectivity graph potentially relate to different underlying mechanisms of propagation. Previous approaches for evaluating the influence of connectivity on neurodegeneration consider each descriptor in isolation and match predictions against late-stage atrophy patterns. We introduce the notion of a topological profile — a characteristic combination of topological descriptors that best describes the propagation of pathology in a particular disease. By drawing on recent advances in disease progression modeling, we estimate topological profiles from the full course of pathology accumulation, at both cohort and individual levels. Experimental results comparing topological profiles for Alzheimer’s disease, multiple sclerosis and normal ageing show that topological profiles explain the observed data better than single descriptors. Within each condition, most individual profiles cluster around the cohort-level profile, and individuals whose profiles align more closely with other cohort-level profiles show features of that cohort. The cohort-level profiles suggest new insights into the biological mechanisms underlying pathology propagation in each disease.