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Immature stages of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae experience high mortality, but its cause is poorly understood. Here we study the impact of rainfall, one of the abiotic factors to which the immatures are frequently exposed, on their mortality. We show that rainfall significantly affected larval mosquitoes by flushing them out of their aquatic habitat and killing them. Outdoor experiments under natural conditions in Kenya revealed that the additional nightly loss of larvae caused by rainfall was on average 17.5% for the youngest (L1) larvae and 4.8% for the oldest (L4) larvae; an additional 10.5% (increase from 0.9 to 11.4%) of the L1 larvae and 3.3% (from 0.1 to 3.4%) of the L4 larvae were flushed away and larval mortality increased by 6.9% (from 4.6 to 11.5%) and 1.5% (from 4.1 to 5.6%) for L1 and L4 larvae, respectively, compared to nights without rain. On rainy nights, 1.3% and 0.7% of L1 and L4 larvae, respectively, were lost due to ejection from the breeding site. This study demonstrates that immature populations of malaria mosquitoes suffer high losses during rainfall events. As these populations are likely to experience several rain showers during their lifespan, rainfall will have a profound effect on the productivity of mosquito breeding sites and, as a result, on the transmission of malaria. These findings are discussed in the light of malaria risk and changing rainfall patterns in response to climate change.

Progress in reducing both malaria cases and deaths has stalled with regression seen in many geographies. While significant attention is given to the contributing challenges of drug and insecticide resistance, ‘residual’ malaria is often diminished to transmission resulting from outdoor-biting or zoophagic/opportunistic mosquito vectors. These specific vector bionomic traits are only part of the problem, as residual transmission may be driven by (a combination of) (1) sub-optimal intervention coverage, quality, acceptance, and/or usage, (2) drug resistance, (3) insecticide resistance, (4) refractory, resistant and adaptive vector and human behaviours that lower intervention effectiveness, (5) lack of, limited access to, and/or willingness to use healthcare systems, (6) diagnostic sensitivity along with the parallel issue of hrp2/3 mutations, (7) (inter)national policy, (8) the research and development pipeline, and (9) external factors such as natural disasters and conflict zones. Towards combating the minimization of this extensive and multipronged issue among the scientific community, funding agencies, and public health officials responsible for guiding or developing malaria programmes, an alternative way of describing this transmission is proposed by focusing in on the causative ‘gaps in protection’ . Defining and wording it as such zeros in on the drivers that result in the observed remaining (or increasing) transmission, allowing the malaria community to focus on solutions by identifying the actual causes. Outlining, defining and quantifying the gaps in protection for a given system is of utmost importance to understand what needs to be done, differentiating what can be done versus what cannot be tackled at that moment, along with delineating the technical and financial capacity required.

Background The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk. Methods Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed. Results Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6°C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less. Conclusions Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology.

The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

Most studies on the ability of insect populations to transmit pathogens consider only constant temperatures and do not account for realistic daily temperature fluctuations that can impact vector-pathogen interactions. Here, we show that diurnal temperature range (DTR) affects two important parameters underlying dengue virus (DENV) transmission by Aedes aegypti. In two independent experiments using different DENV serotypes, mosquitoes were less susceptible to virus infection and died faster under larger DTR around the same mean temperature. Large DTR (20 °C) decreased the probability of midgut infection, but not duration of the virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP), compared with moderate DTR (10 °C) or constant temperature. A thermodynamic model predicted that at mean temperatures <18 °C, DENV transmission increases as DTR increases, whereas at mean temperatures >18 °C, larger DTR reduces DENV transmission. The negative impact of DTR on Ae. aegypti survival indicates that large temperature fluctuations will reduce the probability of vector survival through EIP and expectation of infectious life. Seasonal variation in the amplitude of daily temperature fluctuations helps to explain seasonal forcing of DENV transmission at locations where average temperature does not vary seasonally and mosquito abundance is not associated with dengue incidence. Mosquitoes lived longer and were more likely to become infected under moderate temperature fluctuations, which is typical of the high DENV transmission season than under large temperature fluctuations, which is typical of the low DENV transmission season. Our findings reveal the importance of considering short-term temperature variations when studying DENV transmission dynamics.

The incubation period for malaria parasites within the mosquito is exquisitely temperature-sensitive, so that temperature is a major determinant of malaria risk. Epidemiological models are increasingly used to guide allocation of disease control resources and to assess the likely impact of climate change on global malaria burdens. Temperature-based malaria transmission is generally incorporated into these models using mean monthly temperatures, yet temperatures fluctuate throughout the diurnal cycle. Here we use a thermodynamic malaria development model to demonstrate that temperature fluctuation can substantially alter the incubation period of the parasite, and hence malaria transmission rates. We find that, in general, temperature fluctuation reduces the impact of increases in mean temperature. Diurnal temperature fluctuation around means >21°C slows parasite development compared with constant temperatures, whereas fluctuation around <21°C speeds development. Consequently, models which ignore diurnal variation overestimate malaria risk in warmer environments and underestimate risk in cooler environments. To illustrate the implications further, we explore the influence of diurnal temperature fluctuation on malaria transmission at a site in the Kenyan Highlands. Based on local meteorological data, we find that the annual epidemics of malaria at this site cannot be explained without invoking the influence of diurnal temperature fluctuation. Moreover, while temperature fluctuation reduces the relative influence of a subtle warming trend apparent over the last 20 years, it nonetheless makes the effects biologically more significant. Such effects of short-term temperature fluctuations have not previously been considered but are central to understanding current malaria transmission and the consequences of climate change.

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria–temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading mosquito-borne disease causing-pathogen in the United States. Concerningly, there are no prophylactics or drug treatments for WNV and public health programs rely heavily on vector control efforts to lessen disease incidence. Insecticides can be effective in reducing vector numbers if implemented strategically, but can diminish in efficacy and promote insecticide resistance otherwise. Vector control programs which employ mass-fogging applications of insecticides, often conduct these methods during the late-night hours, when diel temperatures are coldest, and without a-priori knowledge on daily mosquito activity patterns. This study’s aims were to 1) quantify the effect of temperature on the toxicity of two conventional insecticides used in fogging applications (malathion and deltamethrin) to Culex tarsalis , an important WNV vector, and 2) quantify the time of host-seeking of Cx . tarsalis and other local mosquito species in Maricopa County, Arizona. The temperature-toxicity relationship of insecticides was assessed using the WHO tube bioassay, and adult Cx . tarsalis , collected as larvae, were exposed to three different insecticide doses at three temperature regimes (15, 25, and 35°C; 80% RH). Time of host-seeking was assessed using collection bottle rotators with encephalitis vector survey traps baited with dry ice, first at 3h intervals during a full day, followed by 1h intervals during the night-time. Malathion became less toxic at cooler temperatures at all doses, while deltamethrin was less toxic at cooler temperatures at the low dose. Regarding time of host-seeking, Cx . tarsalis , Aedes vexans , and Culex quinquefasciatus were the most abundant vectors captured. During the 3-hour interval surveillance over a full day, Cx . tarsalis were most-active during post-midnight biting (00:00–06:00), accounting for 69.0% of all Cx . tarsalis , while pre-midnight biting (18:00–24:00) accounted for 30.0% of Cx . tarsalis . During the 1-hour interval surveillance overnight, Cx . tarsalis were most-active during pre-midnight hours (18:00–24:00), accounting for 50.2% of Cx . tarsalis captures, while post-midnight biting (00:00–06:00) accounted for 49.8% of Cx . tarsalis . Our results suggest that programs employing large-scale applications of insecticidal fogging should consider temperature-toxicity relationships coupled with time of host-seeking data to maximize the efficacy of vector control interventions in reducing mosquito-borne disease burden.

Since 2000, the world has made significant progress in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality, and several countries in Africa, South America and South‐East Asia are working hard to eliminate the disease. These elimination efforts continue to rely heavily on antimalarial drugs and insecticide‐based interventions, which remain the cornerstones of malaria treatment and prevention. However, resistance has emerged against nearly every antimalarial drug and insecticide that is available. In this review we discuss the evolutionary consequences of the way we currently implement antimalarial interventions, which is leading to resistance and may ultimately lead to control failure, but also how evolutionary principles can be applied to extend the lifespan of current and novel interventions. A greater understanding of the general evolutionary principles that are at the core of emerging resistance is urgently needed if we are to develop improved resistance management strategies with the ultimate goal to achieve a malaria‐free world.

The control and prevention of mosquito-borne diseases is mostly achieved with insecticides. However, their use has led to the rapid development and spread of insecticide resistance worldwide. Health experts have called for intensified efforts to find new approaches to reduce mosquito populations and human-mosquito contact. A promising new tool is the use of electrical fields (EFs), whereby mosquitoes are repelled by charged particles in their flight path. Such particles move between two or more conductors, and the use of uninsulated copper or aluminum plates as conductors has been proven to be effective at repelling mosquitoes. Here, for the first time, we assess if EFs generated using a single row of insulated conductor wires (ICWs) can also successfully repel mosquitoes, and whether mosquitoes are equally repelled at the same EF strength when the electrodes are a) orientated differently (horizontal vs. vertical placement), and b) spaced more apart. Over a period of 23 hours, the number of host-seeking female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that were successfully repelled by EFs, using ICWs, at EF strengths ranging from 0 kV/cm (control) to 9.15 kV/cm were quantified. Mosquitoes were released inside a 220×220×180 cm room and lured into a BG-Pro trap that was equipped with a BG-counter and baited with CO2 using dry ice. Mosquitoes had to pass through an EF window, that contained a single row of ICWs with alternating polarity, to reach the bait. The baseline interaction between EF strength and repellency was assessed first, after which the impact of different ICW orientations and ICW distances on repellency were determined. Over 50% of mosquitoes were repelled at EF strengths of ≥ 3.66 kV/cm. A linear regression model showed that a vertical ICW orientation (vertical vs. horizontal) had a small but insignificant increased impact on mosquito repellency (p = 0.059), and increasing ICW distance (while maintaining the same EF strength) significantly reduced repellency (p = 0.01). ICWs can be used to generate EFs that partially repel host-seeking mosquitoes, which will reduce human-mosquito contact. While future studies need to assess if (i) increased repellency can be achieved, and (ii) a repellency of 50-60% is sufficient to impact disease transmission, it is encouraging that EF repellency using ICWs is higher compared to that of some spatial repellent technologies currently in development. This technology can be used in the housing improvement toolkit (i.e. preventing mosquito entry through eaves, windows, and doors). Moreover, the use of cheap, over-the-counter ICWs will mean that the technology is more accessible worldwide, and easier to manufacture and implement locally.