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We examined the determinants of nonmarital fertility, focusing on the effects of other life-course events: education, marriage, marital dissolution, and marital fertility. Since these determinants are potentially endogenous, we modeled the processes that generate them jointly with nonmarital fertility and accounted for the sequencing of events and the unobserved correlations across processes. The results showed that the risk of nonmarital conception increases immediately after leaving school and that the educational effects are less pronounced for black women than for other women. The risk is lower for previously married women than for never-married women, even controlling for age, but this reduction is significant only for black women. The more children a woman already has, the lower her risk of nonmarital childbearing, particularly if the earlier children were born during a previous marriage. Ignoring endogeneity issues seriously biases the estimates of several substantively important effects.

Prior literature has shown that married men live longer than unmarried men. Possible explanations are that marriage protects its incumbents or that healthier men select themselves into marriage. Protective effects, however, introduce the possibility of adverse selection: Those in poor health have an incentive to marry. In this paper we explore the role of health in explaining mortality and marriage patterns, and distinguish protective effects from two types of selection effects. We find adverse selection on the basis of health (unhealthy men tend to (re)marry sooner) and positive selection on the basis of unmeasured factors that both promote good health and encourage marriage.

Objective. To forecast growth in the US nursing home population, as a function of trends in disability and marriage. Methods. Nursing home residence is modeled as a function of disability status, marital status, and other demographic covariates. Our predictions for nursing home residence are built upon joint forecasts of marriage and disability. We use data from the 1992 to 1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys, which are individual-level data sets designed to be representative of the US population older than the age of 65. Results. Today's young cohorts will have higher rates and levels of institutionalization than their older counterparts. This will reverse several decades of decline in rates of disability and institutionalization. The nursing home population is likely to be 10-25% higher than would be suggested by a simple extrapolation of past declines in disability. Conclusions. In recent years, the rate of institutionalization among the elderly has been falling. It is predicted that this trend will reverse itself within the next decade, and that we will see substantial increases in the incidence of institutionalization among the elderly. This result is generated by our prediction of rising disability among the younger cohorts that are beginning to approach old age.

The literature on reporting error provides insights into the quality of retrospective reports, particularly as it pertains to short-term recall. Less is understood about the generalizability of these findings to longer-term retrospective reports. We review studies analyzing the quality of retrospective reports in the Malaysian Family Life Surveys (MFLS), fielded in Peninsular Malaysia in 1976 and 1988, and conclude that many of the data quality problems found previously are present in the MFLS. We summarize this literature, place studies based on the MFLS within the context of the reporting error literature, and discuss implications for the design of future surveys.

This analysis is concerned with the determinants of panel attrition from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and with its consequences for estimation of dynamic behavioral models which exploit the panel or longitudinal information-household income dynamics, marriage formation and dissolution, and adult mortality risk. We develop and estimate joint models of attrition and one or more of these substantive processes, and allow for correlation across the equations through random effects. Although we find evidence of significant selectivity in attrition behavior, the biases that are introduced by ignoring selective attrition are very mild.

What are the forces that will continue to shape the U.S. workforce and workplace over the next 10 to 15 years? With its eye on forming sound policy and helping stakeholders in the private and public sectors make informed decisions, the U.S. Department of Labor asked RAND to look at the future of work. The authors analyze trends in and the implications of shifting demographic patterns, the pace of technological change, and the path of economic globalization.

Recent innovations in biomedicine seem poised to revolutionize medical practice. At the same time, disease and disability are increasing among younger populations. This paper considers how these confluent trends will affect the elderly's health status and health care spending over the next thirty years. Because healthier people live longer, cumulative Medicare spending varies little with a beneficiary's disease and disability status upon entering Medicare. On the other hand, ten of the most promising technologies are forecast to increase spending greatly. It is unlikely that a \"silver bullet\" will emerge to both improve health and dramatically reduce medical spending. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

Infant and child mortality rates have dropped sharply for all ethnic groups in Malaysia between 1950 and 1988, but persistent ethnic differences remain. In this article we assess the contribution of several potential reasons both for the decline and the remaining differences between the Malay and Chinese sub-populations. Increased use of health inputs is found to explain a substantial part of the decline, but increased education of mothers, and income growth are also important. Longer spacing between births, and, higher average age at birth as a result of lower fertility and higher age at marriage provide only a marginal direct contribution to the fall in mortality. We find that lower mortality among the Chinese is accounted for by their higher incomes and greater propensity to purchase medical care. We also control for self-selection among users of medical care, and find that those who use health care in Malaysia tend to be subject to higher-than-average risks.