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The article presents the results of observations and research on the dynamics of exogenous erosion processes on the shores of lowland reservoirs in Belarus. Features and regularities of the dynamics of development of exogenous shores subject to abrasion-processing and an assessment of planned and profile stability of coastal slopes on the basis of proposed criteria are presented. The relationship between exogenous processes and accumulation processes was determined, the approaches and criteria for determining the stability of reservoir shores based on the hydrological regime of reservoirs and ground conditions were developed.

The research results of runoff changes in the River Viliya at 3 stations (Steshitsy Village, Vileyka Town and Mihalishki village) during the period 1946–2014 for the average annual, maximum, minimum summer-autumn and winter runoff are presented. It has been concluded that heterogeneity in the time series of the river runoff is caused by natural-climatic and anthropogenic factors. At Mihalishki Village the average annual runoff is about 59.7 m3 s–1, the maximum 1570 m3 s–1, minimum summer–autumn is 22.0 m3 s–1, the minimum winter runoff is 17.3 m3 s–1, and the environmental runoff is 21.1 m3 s–1. A forecast of runoff changes for the River Viliya, depending on forecasted climate change using the “Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections” was made on the basis of four scenarios RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6. The results of research indicate that significant changes in runoff will not occur as the forecasted climatic parameters did not change significantly. A forecasted decrease in spring runoff was investigated, thus reducing the minimum runoff is not essential. In the event of possible low water periods the Vileyka reservoir resources, involving the Olkhovskoye and the Snigyanskoye water reservoirs, can be used for compensation measures, which may be considered as the most reliable backup source of industrial water supply for the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant.

The conditions of wind waves influence on the ground upper soil slopes of retaining structures and natural shores that are fixed in the form of reinforced concrete fastening with deformations are considered. The results of modeling the regime of intra-water currents and field surveys of artificial water bodies are shown. A criterion for assessing the stability of ground slopes and coastal slopes with reinforced concrete fastening with a broken structure is proposed and the conditions for its applicability are determined. Measures for engineering protection of the reservoir shores are proposed via using a criterion for the stability of fixed slopes Пк. It is assumed that at Пк ≥ 1 the slope profile with fastening plates deformed during operation acquires the contour of the dynamic equilibrium profile adopted for the calculated type of soil as a result of the destruction of the slope by waves.

On the basis of the mean volume of annual water levels of 25 lakes (9 Belarusian and 16 Polish) over a period of 55 years (1956-2010) spectral time analysis of water fluctuations has been executed. The choice of the lakes was based on two factors, i.e. the continuous period of observation and insignificant anthropogenic influence. The complex analysis of water level fluctuation cycles has shown that for Belarus the cycles observed most often were 3, 5 and 10-year cycles. Polish lakes also have three cycles, but in the majority of them they amount to 5 and 10-years. It can be assumed that this is impacted by the continental climate growing to the east. Most probably it is one of the key factors defining the diversity of water fluctuations in all the analyzed lakes.

The time variability features of the intra-annual runoff distribution in the Pripyat River basin at the present stage are considered. The study used data from 10 active gauging-stations at the basin area for the period of enabled observations. Changes in the nature of natural runoff regulation of rivers are shown. An increase in the coefficient of natural runoff regulation after the period 1970-1983 for the rivers of the Pripyat River basin was revealed. The relationship between the coefficient of uneven runoff and the share of spring flood was established.

The paper presents long-term changes in water temperature in two rivers, Oder and Neman, with catchments showing different climatic conditions (with dominance of marine climate in the case of the Oder and continental climate in the case of the Neman River). A statistically significant increase in mean annual water temperature was recorded for four observation stations, ranging from 0.17 to 0.39 °C dec−1. At the seasonal scale, for the winter half-year, water temperature increase varied from 0.17 to 0.26 °C dec−1, and for the summer half-year from 0.17 to 0.50 °C dec−1. In three cases (Odra-Brzeg, Odra-Słubice, Niemen-Grodno), the recorded changes referred to the scale of changes in air temperature. For the fourth station on Neman (Smalininkai), an increase in water temperature in the river was considerably slower than air temperature increase. It should be associated with the substantial role of local conditions (non-climatic) affecting the thermal regime in that profile. Short-term forecast of changes in water temperature showed its further successive increase, a situation unfavorable for the functioning of these ecosystems.

As a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fluctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fluctuations in lake naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent.

The article is devoted to the problems of water resources in Belarusian Polesie. Surface water resources analysis was carried out for the different types of runoffs. There was a significant decrease in maximum spring runoff and a decrease in the average annual runoff. A statistically significant increase in the minimum winter runoff is observed for the rivers of the Pripyat River basin. For the minimum summer–autumn runoff, there was no unambiguous trend in the runoff change. Quality of natural waters analysis included investigation of the annual concentrations of priority substances in the water of some rivers in Polesie for dissolved oxygen, phosphates, nitrogen, petroleum products, copper, zinc, etc. In general, there have been trends toward a pollution decrease in the Polesie Rivers. The possible consequences of changes in river runoff due to climate change are considered. The priority tasks of research on solving the Polesie water problems are outlined.

The optimal number of hydrological monitoring stations for the annual values, the maximum spring, the minimum summerautumn and the minimum winter river runoff in Belarus is determined. The research on optimization of the hydrological network of Belarus led to a conclusion about the optimum number of hydrological stations in the country, but in the case of observing the values of the annual runoff, the number of the existing plants is the minimum necessary, and reducing their number is inadmissible. On the basis of trends in air temperature changes, precipitation and humidity deficits from 1985 to 2009, the forecasts of these parameters are prepared until 2020. Taking into account the models of climatic parameter change, a possible change in the water regime of the rivers in the future is investigated.