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result(s) for
"Parkinson, Simon C"
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Monitoring hydropower reliability in Malawi with satellite data and machine learning
by
Parkinson, Simon C
,
Falchetta, Giacomo
,
Kasamba, Chisomo
in
Algorithms
,
At risk populations
,
Climate change
2020
Hydro-climatic extremes can affect the reliability of electricity supply, in particular in countries that depend greatly on hydropower or cooling water and have a limited adaptive capacity. Assessments of the vulnerability of the power sector and of the impact of extreme events are thus crucial for decision-makers, and yet often they are severely constrained by data scarcity. Here, we introduce and validate an energy-climate-water framework linking remotely-sensed data from multiple satellite missions and instruments (TOPEX/POSEIDON. OSTM/Jason, VIIRS, MODIS, TMPA, AMSR-E) and field observations. The platform exploits random forests regression algorithms to mitigate data scarcity and predict river discharge variability when ungauged. The validated predictions are used to assess the impact of hydroclimatic extremes on hydropower reliability and on the final use of electricity in urban areas proxied by nighttime light radiance variation. We apply the framework to the case of Malawi for the periods 2000-2018 and 2012-2018 for hydrology and power, respectively. Our results highlight the significant impact of hydro-climatic variability and dry extremes on both the supply of electricity and its final use. We thus show that a modelling framework based on open-access data from satellites, machine learning algorithms, and regression analysis can mitigate data scarcity and improve the understanding of vulnerabilities. The proposed approach can support long-term infrastructure development monitoring and identify vulnerable populations, in particular under a changing climate.
Journal Article
Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy
by
Fricko, Oliver
,
Parkinson, Simon C
,
Vliet, Michelle TH van
in
climate change mitigation
,
Climate policy
,
Earth System Science
2016
Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.
Journal Article
Robust response to hydro-climatic change in electricity generation planning
2015
An electricity generation planning framework incorporating adaptation to hydro-climatic change is presented. The planning framework internalizes risks and opportunities associated with alternative hydro-climate scenarios to identify a long-term system configuration robust to uncertainty. The implications of a robust response to hydro-climatic change are demonstrated for the electricity system in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Adaptation strategy is crucial in this region, mainly due to the large contribution of hydropower resources to regional electricity supply. Analysis of results from basin-scale hydrologic models driven with downscaled global climate data suggest that shifts in regional streamflow characteristics by the year 2050 are likely to increase BC’s annual hydropower potential by more than 10 %. These effects combined with an estimated decrease in electricity demand by 2 % due to warmer temperatures, could provide an additional 11 TWh of annual energy. Uncertainties in these projected climate impacts indicate technology configurations offering significant long-term operational flexibility will be needed to ensure system reliability. Results from the regional long-term electricity generation model incorporating adaptive capacity show the significant shifts required in the non-hydro capacity mix to ensure system robustness cause an increase in cumulative operating costs of between 1 and 7 %. Analysis of technology configurations involving high-penetrations of wind generation highlights interactions between flexibility requirements occurring over multiple temporal scales.
Journal Article
Energy sector water use implications of a 2 degree C climate policy
2016
Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 degree C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 degree C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 degree C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.
Journal Article
The Polygenic Score Catalog as an open database for reproducibility and systematic evaluation
2021
We present the Polygenic Score (PGS) Catalog (
https://www.PGSCatalog.org
), an open resource of published scores (including variants, alleles and weights) and consistently curated metadata required for reproducibility and independent applications. The PGS Catalog has capabilities for user deposition, expert curation and programmatic access, thus providing the community with a platform for PGS dissemination, research and translation.
Journal Article
Connecting the sustainable development goals by their energy inter-linkages
2018
The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide guide-posts to society as it attempts to respond to an array of pressing challenges. One of these challenges is energy; thus, the SDGs have become paramount for energy policy-making. Yet, while governments throughout the world have already declared the SDGs to be 'integrated and indivisible', there are still knowledge gaps surrounding how the interactions between the energy SDG targets and those of the non-energy-focused SDGs might play out in different contexts. In this review, we report on a large-scale assessment of the relevant energy literature, which we conducted to better our understanding of key energy-related interactions between SDGs, as well as their context-dependencies (relating to time, geography, governance, technology, and directionality). By (i) evaluating the nature and strength of the interactions identified, (ii) indicating the robustness of the evidence base, the agreement of that evidence, and our confidence in it, and (iii) highlighting critical areas where better understanding is needed or context dependencies should be considered, our review points to potential ways forward for both the policy making and scientific communities. First, we find that positive interactions between the SDGs outweigh the negative ones, both in number and magnitude. Second, of relevance for the scientific community, in order to fill knowledge gaps in critical areas, there is an urgent need for interdisciplinary research geared toward developing new data, scientific tools, and fresh perspectives. Third, of relevance for policy-making, wider efforts to promote policy coherence and integrated assessments are required to address potential policy spillovers across sectors, sustainability domains, and geographic and temporal boundaries. The task of conducting comprehensive science-to-policy assessments covering all SDGs, such as for the UN's Global Sustainable Development Report, remains manageable pending the availability of systematic reviews focusing on a limited number of SDG dimensions in each case.
Journal Article
Building consensus around the assessment and interpretation of Symbiodiniaceae diversity
2023
Within microeukaryotes, genetic variation and functional variation sometimes accumulate more quickly than morphological differences. To understand the evolutionary history and ecology of such lineages, it is key to examine diversity at multiple levels of organization. In the dinoflagellate family Symbiodiniaceae, which can form endosymbioses with cnidarians ( e.g ., corals, octocorals, sea anemones, jellyfish), other marine invertebrates ( e.g. , sponges, molluscs, flatworms), and protists ( e.g ., foraminifera), molecular data have been used extensively over the past three decades to describe phenotypes and to make evolutionary and ecological inferences. Despite advances in Symbiodiniaceae genomics, a lack of consensus among researchers with respect to interpreting genetic data has slowed progress in the field and acted as a barrier to reconciling observations. Here, we identify key challenges regarding the assessment and interpretation of Symbiodiniaceae genetic diversity across three levels: species, populations, and communities. We summarize areas of agreement and highlight techniques and approaches that are broadly accepted. In areas where debate remains, we identify unresolved issues and discuss technologies and approaches that can help to fill knowledge gaps related to genetic and phenotypic diversity. We also discuss ways to stimulate progress, in particular by fostering a more inclusive and collaborative research community. We hope that this perspective will inspire and accelerate coral reef science by serving as a resource to those designing experiments, publishing research, and applying for funding related to Symbiodiniaceae and their symbiotic partnerships.
Journal Article
A large scale hearing loss screen reveals an extensive unexplored genetic landscape for auditory dysfunction
by
Brown, Steve D. M.
,
Bowl, Michael R.
,
Beaudet, Arthur L.
in
631/208/191/1908
,
631/378/2619/1592
,
Animals
2017
The developmental and physiological complexity of the auditory system is likely reflected in the underlying set of genes involved in auditory function. In humans, over 150 non-syndromic loci have been identified, and there are more than 400 human genetic syndromes with a hearing loss component. Over 100 non-syndromic hearing loss genes have been identified in mouse and human, but we remain ignorant of the full extent of the genetic landscape involved in auditory dysfunction. As part of the International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium, we undertook a hearing loss screen in a cohort of 3006 mouse knockout strains. In total, we identify 67 candidate hearing loss genes. We detect known hearing loss genes, but the vast majority, 52, of the candidate genes were novel. Our analysis reveals a large and unexplored genetic landscape involved with auditory function.
The full extent of the genetic basis for hearing impairment is unknown. Here, as part of the International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium, the authors perform a hearing loss screen in 3006 mouse knockout strains and identify 52 new candidate genes for genetic hearing loss.
Journal Article
Long-term trends in human body size track regional variation in subsistence transitions and growth acceleration linked to dairying
2023
Evidence for a reduction in stature between Mesolithic foragers and Neolithic farmers has been interpreted as reflective of declines in health, however, our current understanding of this trend fails to account for the complexity of cultural and dietary transitions or the possible causes of phenotypic change. The agricultural transition was extended in primary centers of domestication and abrupt in regions characterized by demic diffusion. In regions such as Northern Europe where foreign domesticates were difficult to establish, there is strong evidence for natural selection for lactase persistence in relation to dairying. We employ broad-scale analyses of diachronic variation in stature and body mass in the Levant, Europe, the Nile Valley, South Asia, and China, to test three hypotheses about the timing of subsistence shifts and human body size, that: 1) the adoption of agriculture led to a decrease in stature, 2) there were different trajectories in regions of in situ domestication or cultural diffusion of agriculture; and 3) increases in stature and body mass are observed in regions with evidence for selection for lactase persistence. Our results demonstrate that 1) decreases in stature preceded the origins of agriculture in some regions; 2) the Levant and China, regions of in situ domestication of species and an extended period of mixed foraging and agricultural subsistence, had stable stature and body mass over time; and 3) stature and body mass increases in Central and Northern Europe coincide with the timing of selective sweeps for lactase persistence, providing support for the “Lactase Growth Hypothesis.”
Journal Article
The International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium (IMPC): a functional catalogue of the mammalian genome that informs conservation
by
McKerlie, Colin
,
Seavitt, John R
,
Mallon, Ann-Marie
in
Animal models
,
Bioinformatics
,
Consortia
2018
The International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium (IMPC) is building a catalogue of mammalian gene function by producing and phenotyping a knockout mouse line for every protein-coding gene. To date, the IMPC has generated and characterised 5186 mutant lines. One-third of the lines have been found to be non-viable and over 300 new mouse models of human disease have been identified thus far. While current bioinformatics efforts are focused on translating results to better understand human disease processes, IMPC data also aids understanding genetic function and processes in other species. Here we show, using gorilla genomic data, how genes essential to development in mice can be used to help assess the potentially deleterious impact of gene variants in other species. This type of analyses could be used to select optimal breeders in endangered species to maintain or increase fitness and avoid variants associated to impaired-health phenotypes or loss-of-function mutations in genes of critical importance. We also show, using selected examples from various mammal species, how IMPC data can aid in the identification of candidate genes for studying a condition of interest, deliver information about the mechanisms involved, or support predictions for the function of genes that may play a role in adaptation. With genotyping costs decreasing and the continued improvements of bioinformatics tools, the analyses we demonstrate can be routinely applied.
Journal Article