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Understanding causal relationships and violations of those relationships is fundamental to learning about the world around us. Over time some of these relationships become so firmly established that they form part of an implicit belief system about what is possible and impossible in the world. Previous studies investigating the neural correlates of violations of learned relationships have focused on relationships that were task-specific and probabilistic. In contrast, the present study uses magic-trick perception as a means of investigating violations of relationships that are long-established, deterministic, and that form part of the aforementioned belief system. Compared to situations in which expected causal relationships are observed, magic trick perception recruited dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), brain regions associated with the detection of conflict and the implementation of cognitive control. These activations were greater in the left hemisphere, supporting a role for this hemisphere in the interpretation of complex events. DLPFC is more greatly activated by magic tricks than by surprising events, but not more greatly activated by surprising than non surprising events, suggesting that this region plays a special role in causality processing. The results suggest a role for cognitive control regions in the left hemisphere in a neurobiology of disbelief.

Abstract Understanding causal relationships and violations of those relationships is fundamental to learning about the world around us. Over time some of these relationships become so firmly established that they form part of an implicit belief system about what is possible and impossible in the world. Previous studies investigating the neural correlates of violations of learned relationships have focused on relationships that were task-specific and probabilistic. In contrast, the present study uses magic-trick perception as a means of investigating violations of relationships that are long-established, deterministic, and that form part of the aforementioned belief system. Compared to situations in which expected causal relationships are observed, magic trick perception recruited dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), brain regions associated with the detection of conflict and the implementation of cognitive control. These activations were greater in the left hemisphere, supporting a role for this hemisphere in the interpretation of complex events. DLPFC is more greatly activated by magic tricks than by surprising events, but not more greatly activated by surprising than non surprising events, suggesting that this region plays a special role in causality processing. The results suggest a role for cognitive control regions in the left hemisphere in a neurobiology of disbelief.

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.

We assessed the biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations of 11 global models that participated in the AeroCom phase III BB emission experiment. By comparing multi-model simulations and satellite observations in the vicinity of fires over 13 regions globally, we (1) assess model-simulated BB AOD performance as an indication of smoke source–strength, (2) identify regions where the common emission dataset used by the models might underestimate or overestimate smoke sources, and (3) assess model diversity and identify underlying causes as much as possible. Using satellite-derived AOD snapshots to constrain source strength works best where BB smoke from active sources dominates background non-BB aerosol, such as in boreal forest regions and over South America and southern hemispheric Africa. The comparison is inconclusive where the total AOD is low, as in many agricultural burning areas, and where the background is high, such as parts of India and China. Many inter-model BB AOD differences can be traced to differences in values for the mass ratio of organic aerosol to organic carbon, the BB aerosol mass extinction efficiency, and the aerosol loss rate from each model. The results point to a need for increased numbers of available BB cases for study in some regions and especially to a need for more extensive regional-to-global-scale measurements of aerosol loss rates and of detailed particle microphysical and optical properties; this would both better constrain models and help distinguish BB from other aerosol types in satellite retrievals. More generally, there is the need for additional efforts at constraining aerosol source strength and other model attributes with multi-platform observations.

Aerosols significantly influence Earth's radiative balance, yet considerable uncertainty exists in the underpinning mechanisms, particularly those involving clouds. Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are the most uncertain element in anthropogenic radiative forcing, hampering our ability to constrain Earth's climate sensitivity and understand future climate change. The 2014–2015 Holuhraun volcanic eruption in Iceland released sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the lower troposphere on a level comparable to continental-scale emissions. The resultant volcanic plume across an often near-pristine region of the northern North Atlantic Ocean presents an ideal opportunistic experiment to explore ACI representation within general circulation models (GCMs). We present Part 2 of a two-part AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) Phase III inter-model comparison study that utilises satellite remote sensing observations to assess modelled cloud responses to the Holuhraun attributed volcanic aerosol within eight state-of-the-art GCMs during September and October 2014. We isolate the aerosol effect from meteorological variability and find that the GCMs – particularly their multi-model ensemble response – adeptly capture the observed cloud microphysical changes associated with the ACI first indirect effect (i.e. Twomey effect). Meanwhile, a clear divergence exists in the GCM responses of large-scale cloud properties, namely cloud liquid water content, expected from the precipitation suppression mechanism of the ACI second indirect effect (i.e. rapid adjustments). We attribute this to limitations and differences in their autoconversion schemes under high aerosol loading, specifically in sub-grid-variability representations. Finally, our multi-model ensemble estimates that Holuhraun had a global radiative forcing of −0.11 ± 0.04 Wm−2 across September and October 2014.

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

Background During herpesvirus replication, terminase packages viral DNA into capsids. The subunits of herpes simplex virus terminase, UL15, UL28, and UL33, assemble in the cytoplasm prior to nuclear import of the complex. Methods To detect similar interactions between human cytomegalovirus terminase subunits, the orthologous proteins UL89, UL56, and UL51 were expressed in HEK-293 T cells (via transfection) or insect cells (via baculovirus infection) and subcellular localizations were detected by cellular fractionation and confocal microscopy. Results In both cell types, UL56 and UL89 expressed alone were exclusively cytoplasmic, whereas UL51 was ~50% nuclear. Both UL89 and UL56 became ~50% nuclear when expressed together, as did UL56 when expressed with UL51. Nuclear localization of each protein was greatest when all three proteins were co-expressed. Conclusions These results support inclusion of UL51 as an HCMV terminase subunit and suggest that nuclear import of human cytomegalovirus terminase may involve nuclear import signals that form cooperatively upon subunit associations.

1. Ecologists and conservation biologists consider many issues when designing a field study, such as the expected value of the data, the interests of the study species, the welfare of individual organisms and the cost of the project. These different issues or values often conflict; however, neither animal ethics nor environmental ethics provides practical guidance on how to assess trade-offs between them. 2. We developed a decision framework for considering trade-offs between values in ecological research, drawing on the field of ecological ethics. We used a case study of the population genetics of three frog species, in which a researcher must choose between four methods of sampling DNA from the study animals. We measured species welfare as the reduction in population growth rate following sampling, and assessed individual welfare using two different definitions: (i) the level of suffering experienced by an animal, and (ii) the level of suffering combined with loss of future life. 3. Tipping the tails of tadpoles ranked as the best sampling method for species welfare, while collecting whole tadpoles and buccal swabbing of adult frogs ranked best for the first and second definitions of individual welfare, respectively. Toe clipping of adult frogs ranked as the worst sampling method for species welfare and the first definition of individual welfare, and equal worst for the second definition of individual welfare. 4. When considering species and individual welfare simultaneously, toe clipping was clearly inferior to the other sampling methods, but no single sampling method was clearly superior to the other three. Buccal swabbing, collecting tadpoles and tail tipping were all preferred options, depending on the definition of individual welfare and the level of precision with which we assessed species welfare. 5.Synthesis and applications. The decision framework we present can be used by ecologists to assess ethical and other trade-offs when planning field studies. A formal decision analysis makes transparent how a researcher might negotiate competing ethical, financial and practical objectives. Defining the components of the decision in this way can help avoid errors associated with human judgement and linguistic uncertainty.