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Transcriptome-wide association studies using predicted expression have identified thousands of genes whose locally regulated expression is associated with complex traits and diseases. In this work, we show that linkage disequilibrium induces significant gene–trait associations at non-causal genes as a function of the expression quantitative trait loci weights used in expression prediction. We introduce a probabilistic framework that models correlation among transcriptome-wide association study signals to assign a probability for every gene in the risk region to explain the observed association signal. Importantly, our approach remains accurate when expression data for causal genes are not available in the causal tissue by leveraging expression prediction from other tissues. Our approach yields credible sets of genes containing the causal gene at a nominal confidence level (for example, 90%) that can be used to prioritize genes for functional assays. We illustrate our approach by using an integrative analysis of lipid traits, where our approach prioritizes genes with strong evidence for causality. FOCUS (fine-mapping of causal gene sets) models correlation among TWAS signals to assign a probability for every gene in the risk region to explain the observed association signal while controlling for pleiotropic SNP effects and unmeasured causal expression.

While variance components analysis has emerged as a powerful tool in complex trait genetics, existing methods for fitting variance components do not scale well to large-scale datasets of genetic variation. Here, we present a method for variance components analysis that is accurate and efficient: capable of estimating one hundred variance components on a million individuals genotyped at a million SNPs in a few hours. We illustrate the utility of our method in estimating and partitioning variation in a trait explained by genotyped SNPs (SNP-heritability). Analyzing 22 traits with genotypes from 300,000 individuals across about 8 million common and low frequency SNPs, we observe that per-allele squared effect size increases with decreasing minor allele frequency (MAF) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) consistent with the action of negative selection. Partitioning heritability across 28 functional annotations, we observe enrichment of heritability in FANTOM5 enhancers in asthma, eczema, thyroid and autoimmune disorders. Variance components analysis may be used for a variety of applications including heritability estimation and association mapping. Here, the authors present a computationally efficient method, scalable to extremely large GWAS datasets, and use it for heritabilty analysis of 22 traits from UK Biobank

Although the cohort-level accuracy of polygenic risk scores (PRSs)—estimates of genetic value at the individual level—has been widely assessed, uncertainty in PRSs remains underexplored. In the present study, we show that Bayesian PRS methods can estimate the variance of an individual’s PRS and can yield well-calibrated credible intervals via posterior sampling. For 13 real traits in the UK Biobank ( n  = 291,273 unrelated ‘white British’), we observe large variances in individual PRS estimates which impact interpretation of PRS-based stratification; averaging across traits, only 0.8% (s.d. = 1.6%) of individuals with PRS point estimates in the top decile have corresponding 95% credible intervals fully contained in the top decile. We provide an analytical estimator for the expectation of individual PRS variance as a function of SNP heritability, number of causal SNPs and sample size. Our results showcase the importance of incorporating uncertainty in individual PRS estimates into subsequent analyses. Analysis of real traits in the UK Biobank demonstrates that large uncertainty in polygenic risk score (PRS) estimates at the individual level impacts the interpretation of subsequent analyses such as PRS-based stratification.

Transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) test the association between traits and genetically predicted gene expression levels. The power of a TWAS depends in part on the strength of the correlation between a genetic predictor of gene expression and the causally relevant gene expression values. Consequently, TWAS power can be low when expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data used to train the genetic predictors have small sample sizes, or when data from causally relevant tissues are not available. Here, we propose to address these issues by integrating multiple tissues in the TWAS using sparse canonical correlation analysis (sCCA). We show that sCCA-TWAS combined with single-tissue TWAS using an aggregate Cauchy association test (ACAT) outperforms traditional single-tissue TWAS. In empirically motivated simulations, the sCCA+ACAT approach yielded the highest power to detect a gene associated with phenotype, even when expression in the causal tissue was not directly measured, while controlling the Type I error when there is no association between gene expression and phenotype. For example, when gene expression explains 2% of the variability in outcome, and the GWAS sample size is 20,000, the average power difference between the ACAT combined test of sCCA features and single-tissue, versus single-tissue combined with Generalized Berk-Jones (GBJ) method, single-tissue combined with S-MultiXcan, UTMOST, or summarizing cross-tissue expression patterns using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approaches was 5%, 8%, 5% and 38%, respectively. The gain in power is likely due to sCCA cross-tissue features being more likely to be detectably heritable. When applied to publicly available summary statistics from 10 complex traits, the sCCA+ACAT test was able to increase the number of testable genes and identify on average an additional 400 additional gene-trait associations that single-trait TWAS missed. Our results suggest that aggregating eQTL data across multiple tissues using sCCA can improve the sensitivity of TWAS while controlling for the false positive rate.

Despite rapid progress in characterizing the role of host genetics in SARS-Cov-2 infection, there is limited understanding of genes and pathways that contribute to COVID-19. Here, we integrate a genome-wide association study of COVID-19 hospitalization (7,885 cases and 961,804 controls from COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative) with mRNA expression, splicing, and protein levels (n = 18,502). We identify 27 genes related to inflammation and coagulation pathways whose genetically predicted expression was associated with COVID-19 hospitalization. We functionally characterize the 27 genes using phenome- and laboratory-wide association scans in Vanderbilt Biobank (n = 85,460) and identified coagulation-related clinical symptoms, immunologic, and blood-cell-related biomarkers. We replicate these findings across trans-ethnic studies and observed consistent effects in individuals of diverse ancestral backgrounds in Vanderbilt Biobank, pan-UK Biobank, and Biobank Japan. Our study highlights and reconfirms putative causal genes impacting COVID-19 severity and symptomology through the host inflammatory response. Genome-wide association studies of COVID-19 have identified genetic loci affecting disease severity, but the mechanisms remain to be fully described. Here, the authors use genetically predicted transcriptome, splicing and proteome data to identify potential genes and pathways underlying COVID- 19 severity.

Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-Seq) is a compelling approach to directly and simultaneously measure cellular composition and state, which can otherwise only be estimated by applying deconvolution methods to bulk RNA-Seq estimates. However, it has not yet become a widely used tool in population-scale analyses, due to its prohibitively high cost. Here we show that given the same budget, the statistical power of cell-type-specific expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) mapping can be increased through low-coverage per-cell sequencing of more samples rather than high-coverage sequencing of fewer samples. We use simulations starting from one of the largest available real single-cell RNA-Seq data from 120 individuals to also show that multiple experimental designs with different numbers of samples, cells per sample and reads per cell could have similar statistical power, and choosing an appropriate design can yield large cost savings especially when multiplexed workflows are considered. Finally, we provide a practical approach on selecting cost-effective designs for maximizing cell-type-specific eQTL power which is available in the form of a web tool. Single cell RNA-sequencing can be a powerful approach to characterizing cell composition in a population of cells but is thought to be too expensive for population-scale analyses. Here, the authors show how lower coverage of more samples can increase the power to detect cell-type-specific eQTL.

Neuropsychiatric disorders classically lack defining brain pathologies, but recent work has demonstrated dysregulation at the molecular level, characterized by transcriptomic and epigenetic alterations 1 – 3 . In autism spectrum disorder (ASD), this molecular pathology involves the upregulation of microglial, astrocyte and neural–immune genes, the downregulation of synaptic genes, and attenuation of gene-expression gradients in cortex 1 , 2 , 4 – 6 . However, whether these changes are limited to cortical association regions or are more widespread remains unknown. To address this issue, we performed RNA-sequencing analysis of 725 brain samples spanning 11 cortical areas from 112 post-mortem samples from individuals with ASD and neurotypical controls. We find widespread transcriptomic changes across the cortex in ASD, exhibiting an anterior-to-posterior gradient, with the greatest differences in primary visual cortex, coincident with an attenuation of the typical transcriptomic differences between cortical regions. Single-nucleus RNA-sequencing and methylation profiling demonstrate that this robust molecular signature reflects changes in cell-type-specific gene expression, particularly affecting excitatory neurons and glia. Both rare and common ASD-associated genetic variation converge within a downregulated co-expression module involving synaptic signalling, and common variation alone is enriched within a module of upregulated protein chaperone genes. These results highlight widespread molecular changes across the cerebral cortex in ASD, extending beyond association cortex to broadly involve primary sensory regions. RNA sequencing reveals widespread transcriptomic changes across the cerebral cortex in autism spectrum disorder, including primary sensory regions, in addition to association regions, as well as an attenuation of regional identity.

Standard statistical approaches for prioritization of variants for functional testing in fine-mapping studies either use marginal association statistics or estimate posterior probabilities for variants to be causal under simplifying assumptions. Here, we present a probabilistic framework that integrates association strength with functional genomic annotation data to improve accuracy in selecting plausible causal variants for functional validation. A key feature of our approach is that it empirically estimates the contribution of each functional annotation to the trait of interest directly from summary association statistics while allowing for multiple causal variants at any risk locus. We devise efficient algorithms that estimate the parameters of our model across all risk loci to further increase performance. Using simulations starting from the 1000 Genomes data, we find that our framework consistently outperforms the current state-of-the-art fine-mapping methods, reducing the number of variants that need to be selected to capture 90% of the causal variants from an average of 13.3 to 10.4 SNPs per locus (as compared to the next-best performing strategy). Furthermore, we introduce a cost-to-benefit optimization framework for determining the number of variants to be followed up in functional assays and assess its performance using real and simulation data. We validate our findings using a large scale meta-analysis of four blood lipids traits and find that the relative probability for causality is increased for variants in exons and transcription start sites and decreased in repressed genomic regions at the risk loci of these traits. Using these highly predictive, trait-specific functional annotations, we estimate causality probabilities across all traits and variants, reducing the size of the 90% confidence set from an average of 17.5 to 13.5 variants per locus in this data.

Important knowledge about the determinants of complex human phenotypes can be obtained from the estimation of heritability, the fraction of phenotypic variation in a population that is determined by genetic factors. Here, we make use of extensive phenotype data in Iceland, long-range phased genotypes, and a population-wide genealogical database to examine the heritability of 11 quantitative and 12 dichotomous phenotypes in a sample of 38,167 individuals. Most previous estimates of heritability are derived from family-based approaches such as twin studies, which may be biased upwards by epistatic interactions or shared environment. Our estimates of heritability, based on both closely and distantly related pairs of individuals, are significantly lower than those from previous studies. We examine phenotypic correlations across a range of relationships, from siblings to first cousins, and find that the excess phenotypic correlation in these related individuals is predominantly due to shared environment as opposed to dominance or epistasis. We also develop a new method to jointly estimate narrow-sense heritability and the heritability explained by genotyped SNPs. Unlike existing methods, this approach permits the use of information from both closely and distantly related pairs of individuals, thereby reducing the variance of estimates of heritability explained by genotyped SNPs while preventing upward bias. Our results show that common SNPs explain a larger proportion of the heritability than previously thought, with SNPs present on Illumina 300K genotyping arrays explaining more than half of the heritability for the 23 phenotypes examined in this study. Much of the remaining heritability is likely to be due to rare alleles that are not captured by standard genotyping arrays.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 100 risk loci for schizophrenia, but the causal mechanisms remain largely unknown. We performed a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) integrating a schizophrenia GWAS of 79,845 individuals from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium with expression data from brain, blood, and adipose tissues across 3,693 primarily control individuals. We identified 157 TWAS-significant genes, of which 35 did not overlap a known GWAS locus. Of these 157 genes, 42 were associated with specific chromatin features measured in independent samples, thus highlighting potential regulatory targets for follow-up. Suppression of one identified susceptibility gene, mapk3 , in zebrafish showed a significant effect on neurodevelopmental phenotypes. Expression and splicing from the brain captured most of the TWAS effect across all genes. This large-scale connection of associations to target genes, tissues, and regulatory features is an essential step in moving toward a mechanistic understanding of GWAS. A transcriptome-wide association study integrating genome-wide association data with expression data from brain, blood and adipose tissues identifies new candidate susceptibility genes for schizophrenia, providing a step toward understanding the underlying biology.