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Dispersal and adaptation both allow species to persist in changing environments. Yet, we have limited understanding of how these processes interact to affect species persistence, especially in diverse communities where biotic interactions greatly complicate responses to environmental change. Here we use a stochastic metacommunity model to demonstrate how dispersal and adaptation to environmental change independently and interactively contribute to biodiversity maintenance. Dispersal provides spatial insurance, whereby species persist on the landscape by shifting their distributions to track favorable conditions. In contrast, adaptation allows species to persist by allowing for evolutionary rescue. But, when species both adapt and disperse, dispersal and adaptation do not combine positively to affect biodiversity maintenance, even if they do increase the persistence of individual species. This occurs because faster adapting species evolve to hold onto their initial ranges (i.e., monopolization effects), thus impeding slower adapting species from shifting their ranges and thereby causing extinctions. Importantly, these differences in adaptation speed emerge as the result of competition, which alters population sizes and colonization success. By demonstrating how dispersal and adaptation each independently and interactively contribute to the maintenance of biodiversity, we provide a framework that links the theories of spatial insurance, evolutionary rescue, and monopolization. This highlights the expectation that the maintenance of biodiversity in changing environments depends jointly on rates of dispersal and adaptation, and, critically, the interaction between these processes.

Habitat loss fragments metacommunities, altering the movement of species between previously connected habitat patches. The consequences of habitat loss for ecosystem functioning depend, in part, on how these changes in connectivity alter the spatial insurance effects of biodiversity. Spatial insurance is the maintenance of biodiversity and stable ecosystem functioning in changing environments that occurs when species are able to move between local habitat patches in order to track conditions to which they are adapted. Spatial insurance requires a combination of species sorting dynamics, which allow species to disperse to habitats where they are productive, and mass effect dynamics, where dispersal allows species to persist in marginal habitats where environmental conditions do not support growth. Here we use a spatially explicit metacommunity model to show that the relative contribution of species sorting and mass effects to spatial insurance changes with the rate of dispersal. We then simulate different sequences of habitat loss by removing habitat patches based on their betweenness centrality (the degree to which a patch serves as a connection between other patches in the metacommunity). We demonstrate that the sequence of habitat loss has a large, non-linear impact on diversity, ecosystem functioning and stability. Spatial insurance is lost because habitat fragmentation impedes species sorting, while promoting mass effects and dispersal limitation. We find that species sorting dynamics, and thus spatial insurance, are most robust to the removal of habitat patches with low betweenness centrality. These findings advance our understanding of how habitat connectivity facilitates the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and may prove useful for the design of habitat networks.

Biodiversity enhances many of nature's benefits to people, including the regulation of climate and the production of wood in forests, livestock forage in grasslands and fish in aquatic ecosystems. Yet people are now driving the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Human dependence and influence on biodiversity have mainly been studied separately and at contrasting scales of space and time, but new multiscale knowledge is beginning to link these relationships. Biodiversity loss substantially diminishes several ecosystem services by altering ecosystem functioning and stability, especially at the large temporal and spatial scales that are most relevant for policy and conservation.

Human activities are fundamentally altering biodiversity. Projections of declines at the global scale are contrasted by highly variable trends at local scales, suggesting that biodiversity change may be spatially structured. Here, we examined spatial variation in species richness and composition change using more than 50,000 biodiversity time series from 239 studies and found clear geographic variation in biodiversity change. Rapid compositional change is prevalent, with marine biomes exceeding and terrestrial biomes trailing the overall trend. Assemblage richness is not changing on average, although locations exhibiting increasing and decreasing trends of up to about 20% per year were found in some marine studies. At local scales, widespread compositional reorganization is most often decoupled from richness change, and biodiversity change is strongest and most variable in the oceans.

The effects of global and local environmental changes are transmitted through networks of interacting organisms to shape the structure of communities and the dynamics of ecosystems. We tested the impact of elevated temperature on the top-down and bottom-up forces structuring experimental freshwater pond food webs in western Canada over 16 months. Experimental warming was crossed with treatments manipulating the presence of planktivorous fish and eutrophication through enhanced nutrient supply. We found that higher temperatures produced top-heavy food webs with lower biomass of benthic and pelagic producers, equivalent biomass of zooplankton, zoobenthos and pelagic bacteria, and more pelagic viruses. Eutrophication increased the biomass of all organisms studied, while fish had cascading positive effects on periphyton, phytoplankton and bacteria, and reduced biomass of invertebrates. Surprisingly, virus biomass was reduced in the presence of fish, suggesting the possibility for complex mechanisms of top-down control of the lytic cycle. Warming reduced the effects of eutrophication on periphyton, and magnified the already strong effects of fish on phytoplankton and bacteria. Warming, fish and nutrients all increased whole-system rates of net production despite their distinct impacts on the distribution of biomass between producers and consumers, plankton and benthos, and microbes and macrobes. Our results indicate that warming exerts a host of indirect effects on aquatic food webs mediated through shifts in the magnitudes of top-down and bottom-up forcing.

Ecosystem multifunctionality, the simultaneous production of multiple ecosystem functions, depends on community diversity, composition, productivity, and spatial scale. In metacommunities, each of these community properties is affected by how species disperse between local patches to track environmental change. Here we use a consumer-resource metacommunity model of resource competition to show how dispersal affects the link between diversity, composition, and ecosystem multifunctionality. When species differ in their functional traits and environmental niche, metacommunity multifunctionality becomes highly dependent upon dispersal, which allows community diversity to be maintained when environmental conditions change. Dispersal promotes multifunctionality in two ways: (1) species sorting, whereby species track local environmental changes by shifting in space, thus preserving diversity and ensuring high biomass productivity, and (2) mass effects, whereby source-sink dynamics allow species to persist in suboptimal environments, thus increasing local diversity. Changing the rate at which species disperse affects the strength of these metacommunity processes, and so metacommunity multifunctionality exhibits a unimodal relationship with dispersal, peaking when dispersal is intermediate. Species-sorting dynamics also provide spatial insurance whereby compensatory dynamics stabilize the fluctuations of each function through time at the regional scale. However, this does not extend to the local scale, where species sorting results in high temporal variability for each function, even though the overall rates of multifunctionality are high. Our results suggest that metacommunity processes are important determinants of ecosystem multifunctionality, and thus effective management of multiple ecosystem functions requires consideration of landscape connectivity.

In experimental systems, it has been shown that biodiversity indices based on traits or phylogeny can outperform species richness as predictors of plant ecosystem function. However, it is unclear whether this pattern extends to the function of food webs in natural ecosystems. Here we tested whether zooplankton functional and phylogenetic diversity explains the functioning of 23 natural pond communities. We used two measures of ecosystem function: (1) zooplankton community biomass and (2) phytoplankton abundance (Chl a). We tested for diversity-ecosystem function relationships within and across trophic levels. We found a strong correlation between zooplankton diversity and ecosystem function, whereas local environmental conditions were less important. Further, the positive diversity-ecosystem function relationships were more pronounced for measures of functional and phylogenetic diversity than for species richness. Zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass were best predicted by different indices, suggesting that the two functions are dependent upon different aspects of diversity. Zooplankton community biomass was best predicted by zooplankton trait-based functional richness, while phytoplankton abundance was best predicted by zooplankton phylogenetic diversity. Our results suggest that the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem function can extend across trophic levels in natural environments, and that greater insight into variation in ecosystem function can be gained by combining functional and phylogenetic diversity measures.

Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and nature’s contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. We review existing biodiversity projection models and discover problematic gaps. Current models usually cannot easily be reconfigured for other species or systems, omit key biological processes, and cannot accommodate feedbacks with Earth system dynamics. To fill these gaps, we envision an adaptable, accessible, and universal biodiversity modeling platform that can project essential biodiversity variables, explore the implications of divergent socioeconomic scenarios, and compare conservation and management strategies. We design a roadmap for implementing this vision and demonstrate that building this biodiversity forecasting platform is possible and practical.

Species diversity affects the functioning of ecosystems, including the efficiency by which communities capture limited resources, produce biomass, recycle and retain biologically essential nutrients. These ecological functions ultimately support the ecosystem services upon which humanity depends. Despite hundreds of experimental tests of the effect of biodiversity on ecosystem function (BEF), it remains unclear whether diversity effects are sufficiently general that we can use a single relationship to quantitatively predict how changes in species richness alter an ecosystem function across trophic levels, ecosystems and ecological conditions. Our objective here is to determine whether a general relationship exists between biodiversity and standing biomass. We used hierarchical mixed effects models, based on a power function between species richness and biomass production (Y = a × Sb), and a database of 374 published experiments to estimate the BEF relationship (the change in biomass with the addition of species), and its associated uncertainty, in the context of environmental factors. We found that the mean relationship (b = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.37) characterized the vast majority of observations, was robust to differences in experimental design, and was independent of the range of species richness levels considered. However, the richness–biomass relationship varied by trophic level and among ecosystems; in aquatic systems b was nearly twice as large for consumers (herbivores and detritivores) compared to primary producers; in terrestrial ecosystems, b for detritivores was negative but depended on few studies. We estimated changes in biomass expected for a range of changes in species richness, highlighting that species loss has greater implications than species gains, skewing a distribution of biomass change relative to observed species richness change. When biomass provides a good proxy for processes that underpin ecosystem services, this relationship could be used as a step in modeling the production of ecosystem services and their dependence on biodiversity.

Climate warming is occurring in concert with other anthropogenic changes to ecosystems. However, it is unknown whether and how warming alters the importance of top-down vs. bottom-up control over community productivity and variability. We performed a 16-month factorial experimental manipulation of warming, nutrient enrichment, and predator presence in replicated freshwater pond mesocosms to test their independent and interactive impacts. Warming strengthened trophic cascades from fish to primary producers, and it decreased the impact of eutrophication on the mean and temporal variation of phytoplankton biomass. These impacts varied seasonally, with higher temperatures leading to stronger trophic cascades in winter and weaker algae blooms under eutrophication in summer. Our results suggest that higher temperatures may shift the control of primary production in freshwater ponds toward stronger top-down and weaker bottom-up effects. The dampened temporal variability of algal biomass under eutrophication at higher temperatures suggests that warming may stabilize some ecosystem processes.