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The prevalence of excess body weight and the associated cancer burden have been rising over the past several decades globally. Between 1975 and 2016, the prevalence of excess body weight in adults-defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m2-increased from nearly 21% in men and 24% in women to approximately 40% in both sexes. Notably, the prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) quadrupled in men, from 3% to 12%, and more than doubled in women, from 7% to 16%. This change, combined with population growth, resulted in a more than 6‐fold increase in the number of obese adults, from 100 to 671 million. The largest absolute increase in obesity occurred among men and boys in high‐income Western countries and among women and girls in Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. The simultaneous rise in excess body weight in almost all countries is thought to be driven largely by changes in the global food system, which promotes energy‐dense, nutrient‐poor foods, alongside reduced opportunities for physical activity. In 2012, excess body weight accounted for approximately 3.9% of all cancers (544,300 cases) with proportion varying from less than 1% in low‐income countries to 7% or 8% in some high‐income Western countries and in Middle Eastern and Northern African countries. The attributable burden by sex was higher for women (368,500 cases) than for men (175,800 cases). Given the pandemic proportion of excess body weight in high‐income countries and the increasing prevalence in low‐ and middle‐income countries, the global cancer burden attributable to this condition is likely to increase in the future. There is emerging consensus on opportunities for obesity control through the multisectoral coordinated implementation of core policy actions to promote an environment conducive to a healthy diet and active living. The rapid increase in both the prevalence of excess body weight and the associated cancer burden highlights the need for a rejuvenated focus on identifying, implementing, and evaluating interventions to prevent and control excess body weight.

International trends in traditional diabetes complications (cardiovascular, renal, peripheral vascular, ophthalmic, hepatic or neurological diseases) and mortality rates are poorly characterised. An earlier review of studies published up to 2015 demonstrated that most data come from a dozen high-income countries (HICs) in North America, Europe or the Asia–Pacific region and that, in these countries at least, rates of acute glycaemic fluctuations needing medical attention and amputations, myocardial infarction and mortality were all declining over the period. Here, we provide an updated review of published literature on trends in type 2 diabetes complications and mortality in adults since 2015. We also discuss issues related to data collection, analysis and reporting that have influenced global trends in type 2 diabetes and its complications. We found that most data on trends in type 2 diabetes, its complications and mortality come from a small number of HICs with comprehensive surveillance systems, though at least some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from Africa and Latin America are represented in this review. The published data suggest that HICs have experienced declines in cardiovascular complication rates and all-cause mortality in people with diabetes. In parallel, cardiovascular complications and mortality rates in people with diabetes have increased over time in LMICs. However, caution is warranted in interpreting trends from LMICs due to extremely sparse data or data that are not comparable across countries. We noted that approaches to case ascertainment and definitions of complications and mortality (numerators) and type 2 diabetes (the denominator) vary widely and influence the interpretation of international data. We offer four key recommendations to more rigorously document trends in rates of type 2 diabetes complications and mortality, over time and worldwide: (1) increasing investments in data collection systems; (2) standardising case definitions and approaches to ascertainment; (3) strengthening analytical capacity; and (4) developing and implementing structured guidelines for reporting of data.

Policy Points The World Health Organization has recommended sodium reduction as a “best buy” to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite this, Congress has temporarily blocked the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from implementing voluntary industry targets for sodium reduction in processed foods, the implementation of which could cost the industry around$16 billion over 10 years. We modeled the health and economic impact of meeting the two‐year and ten‐year FDA targets, from the perspective of people working in the food system itself, over 20 years, from 2017 to 2036. Benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, and the value of CVD‐related health gains and cost savings are together greater than the government and industry costs of reformulation. Context The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) set draft voluntary targets to reduce sodium levels in processed foods. We aimed to determine cost effectiveness of meeting these draft sodium targets, from the perspective of US food system workers. Methods We employed a microsimulation cost‐effectiveness analysis using the US IMPACT Food Policy model with two scenarios: (1) short term, achieving two‐year FDA reformulation targets only, and (2) long term, achieving 10‐year FDA reformulation targets. We modeled four close‐to‐reality populations: food system “ever” workers; food system “current” workers in 2017; and subsets of processed food “ever” and “current” workers. Outcomes included cardiovascular disease cases prevented and postponed as well as incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio per quality‐adjusted life year (QALY) gained from 2017 to 2036. Findings Among food system ever workers, achieving long‐term sodium reduction targets could produce 20‐year health gains of approximately 180,000 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 150,000 to 209,000) and health cost savings of approximately $ 5.2 billion (95% UI:$3.5 billion to $ 8.3 billion), with an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) of$62,000 (95% UI: $ 1,000 to$171,000) per QALY gained. For the subset of processed food industry workers, health gains would be approximately 32,000 QALYs (95% UI: 27,000 to 37,000); cost savings, $ 1.0 billion (95% UI:$0.7bn to $ 1.6bn); and ICER,$486,000 (95% UI: $ 148,000 to $1,094,000) per QALY gained. Because many health benefits may occur in individuals older than 65 or the uninsured, these health savings would be shared among individuals, industry, and government. Conclusions The benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, with the value of health gains and health care cost savings outweighing the costs of reformulation, although not for the processed food industry.

The classical portrayal of poor health in tropical countries is one of infections and parasites, contrasting with wealthy Western countries, where unhealthy diet and behaviours cause non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as heart disease and cancer. Using international mortality data, we show that most NCDs cause more deaths at every age in low- and middle-income tropical countries than in high-income Western countries. Causes of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries include poor nutrition and living environment, infections, insufficient taxation and regulation of tobacco and alcohol, and under-resourced and inaccessible healthcare. We identify a comprehensive set of actions across health, social, economic and environmental sectors that could confront NCDs in low- and middle-income tropical countries and reduce global health inequalities.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100–231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30–44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31–45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system. Application of Bayesian models to vital statistics data from 21 industrialized countries shows that approximately 206,000 additional people died than if the COVID-19 pandemic had not occured. The heterogeneous distribution of excess deaths across the countries reflects differences in how the pandemic has been managed as well as the resilience of healthcare systems in these nations.

Multimorbidity is of increasing concern for healthcare systems globally, particularly in the context of ageing population structures, such as in the European Union and the UK. Although there is growing attention on developing strategies to manage the health and healthcare burden of older patients with multimorbidity, little research or policy focus has been placed on how to best prevent the development of multimorbidity in future generations. In this research agenda piece, we argue for a shift from a sole focus on the management of multimorbidity in old age to a multimorbidity agenda that considers prevention and management throughout the life-course.

The negative effect of sedentary behaviour on type 2 diabetes markers is established, but the interaction with measures of physical activity is still largely unknown. Previous studies have analysed associations with single-activity models, which ignore the interaction with other behaviours. By including results from various analytical approaches, this review critically summarises the effects of sedentary behaviour on diabetes markers and the benefits of substitutions and compositions of physical activity. Ovid Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library databases were systematically searched. Studies were selected if sedentary behaviour and physical activity were measured by accelerometer in the general population, and if associations were reported with glucose, insulin, HOMA-IR, insulin sensitivity, HbA1c, diabetes incidence, CRP and IL-6. Forty-five studies were included in the review. Conclusive detrimental associations with sedentary behaviour were determined for 2-h insulin (6/12 studies found associations), fasting insulin (15/19 studies), insulin sensitivity (4/6 studies), diabetes (3/4 studies) and IL-6 (2/3 studies). Reallocating sedentary behaviour to light or moderate-to-vigorous activity has a beneficial effect for 2-h glucose (1/1 studies), fasting insulin (3/3 studies), HOMA-IR (1/1 studies) and insulin sensitivity (1/1 studies). Compositional measures of sedentary behaviour were found to affect 2-h glucose (1/1 studies), fasting insulin (2/3 studies), 2-h insulin (1/1 studies), HOMA-IR (2/2 studies) and CRP (1/1 studies). Different analytical methods produced conflicting results for fasting glucose, 2-h glucose, 2-h insulin, insulin sensitivity, HOMA-IR, diabetes, hbA1c, CRP and IL-6. Studies analysing data by quartiles report independent associations between sedentary behaviour and fasting insulin, HOMA-IR and diabetes only for high duration of sedentary time (7–9 hours/day). However, this review could not provide sufficient evidence for a time-specific cut-off of sedentary behaviour for diabetes biomarkers. While substituting sedentary behaviour with moderate-to-vigorous activity brings greater improvements for health, light activity also benefits metabolic health. Future research should elucidate the effects of substituting and combining different activity durations and modalities.

IntroductionStandards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Study (STARD) was developed to improve the completeness and transparency of reporting in studies investigating diagnostic test accuracy. However, its current form, STARD 2015 does not address the issues and challenges raised by artificial intelligence (AI)-centred interventions. As such, we propose an AI-specific version of the STARD checklist (STARD-AI), which focuses on the reporting of AI diagnostic test accuracy studies. This paper describes the methods that will be used to develop STARD-AI.Methods and analysisThe development of the STARD-AI checklist can be distilled into six stages. (1) A project organisation phase has been undertaken, during which a Project Team and a Steering Committee were established; (2) An item generation process has been completed following a literature review, a patient and public involvement and engagement exercise and an online scoping survey of international experts; (3) A three-round modified Delphi consensus methodology is underway, which will culminate in a teleconference consensus meeting of experts; (4) Thereafter, the Project Team will draft the initial STARD-AI checklist and the accompanying documents; (5) A piloting phase among expert users will be undertaken to identify items which are either unclear or missing. This process, consisting of surveys and semistructured interviews, will contribute towards the explanation and elaboration document and (6) On finalisation of the manuscripts, the group’s efforts turn towards an organised dissemination and implementation strategy to maximise end-user adoption.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been granted by the Joint Research Compliance Office at Imperial College London (reference number: 19IC5679). A dissemination strategy will be aimed towards five groups of stakeholders: (1) academia, (2) policy, (3) guidelines and regulation, (4) industry and (5) public and non-specific stakeholders. We anticipate that dissemination will take place in Q3 of 2021.

Cancers are the leading cause of death in England. We aimed to estimate trends in mortality from leading cancers from 2002 to 2019 for the 314 districts in England. We did a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of vital registration data from the UK Office for National Statistics using data on all deaths from the ten leading cancers in England from 2002 to 2019. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain robust estimates of age-specific and cause-specific death rates. We used life table methods to calculate the primary outcome, the unconditional probability of dying between birth and age 80 years by sex, cancer cause of death, local district, and year. We reported Spearman rank correlations between the probability of dying from a cancer and district-level poverty in 2019. In 2019, the probability of dying from a cancer before age 80 years ranged from 0·10 (95% credible interval [CrI] 0·10–0·11) to 0·17 (0·16–0·18) for women and from 0·12 (0·12–0·13) to 0·22 (0·21–0·23) for men. Variation in the probability of dying was largest for lung cancer among women, being 3·7 times (95% CrI 3·2–4·4) higher in the district with the highest probability than in the district with the lowest probability; and for stomach cancer for men, being 3·2 times (2·6–4·1) higher in the district with the highest probability than in the one with the lowest probability. The variation in the probability of dying was smallest across districts for lymphoma and multiple myeloma (95% CrI 1·2 times [1·1–1·4] higher in the district with the highest probability than the lowest probability for women and 1·2 times [1·0–1·4] for men), and leukaemia (1·1 times [1·0–1·4] for women and 1·2 times [1·0–1·5] for men). The Spearman rank correlation between probability of dying from a cancer and district poverty was 0·74 (95% CrI 0·72–0·76) for women and 0·79 (0·78–0·81) for men. From 2002 to 2019, the overall probability of dying from a cancer declined in all districts: the reductions ranged from 6·6% (95% CrI 0·3–13·1) to 30·1% (25·6–34·5) for women and from 12·8% (7·1–18·8) to 36·7% (32·2–41·2) for men. However, there were increases in mortality for liver cancer among men, lung cancer and corpus uteri cancer among women, and pancreatic cancer in both sexes in some or all districts with posterior probability greater than 0·80. Cancers with modifiable risk factors and potential for screening for precancerous lesions had heterogeneous trends and the greatest geographical inequality. To reduce these inequalities, factors affecting both incidence and survival need to be addressed at the local level. Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London, UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute of Health Research.

School lunches represent a key opportunity to improve diets and health of schoolchildren. No recent nationally representative studies have examined the nutritional differences between school meals and packed lunches in the UK. This study aimed to characterise and compare the nutritional quality of school meals and packed lunches among primary and secondary school-age children. A pooled cross-sectional analysis of the UK's National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-2017). United Kingdom. 3001 children (aged 4-16 years) who completed a 3/4-d food diary which recorded meal type (school meal/packed lunch). Multivariable logistic regression models assessed associations of meeting food and nutrient recommendations by meal type. Analyses were stratified by academic key stages (KS). KS-1 (4-7 years) and 2 (8-11 years) children consuming school meals were more likely to meet minimum recommendations for vegetables, protein-rich foods and fibre, and not exceed maximum recommendations for salt, savoury and sweet snacks compared with pupils consuming packed lunches. However, in KS-3 (12-14 years) and 4 (14-16 years), these effects were reduced. As children aged, the median weight of fruits, vegetables, protein-rich foods and dairy products consumed typically decreased for both school meals and packed lunches, and generally an increasing proportion of school meals contained sweet and savoury snacks. These findings suggest school meals are nutritionally superior to packed lunches but are not yet optimal. Quality declined at higher KS. Actions to improve lunches of primary and secondary schoolchildren across the UK are needed, with attention to KS-3 and 4 in secondary schools.