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The risk of mortality following elective total hip (THR) and knee replacements (KR) may be influenced by patients' pre-existing comorbidities. There are a variety of scores derived from individual comorbidities that can be used in an attempt to quantify this. The aims of this study were to a) identify which comorbidity score best predicts risk of mortality within 90 days or b) determine which comorbidity score best predicts risk of mortality at other relevant timepoints (30, 45, 120 and 365 days). We linked data from the National Joint Registry (NJR) on primary elective hip and knee replacements performed between 2011-2015 with pre-existing conditions recorded in the Hospital Episodes Statistics. We derived comorbidity scores (Charlson Comorbidity Index-CCI, Elixhauser, Hospital Frailty Risk Score-HFRS). We used binary logistic regression models of all-cause mortality within 90-days and within 30, 45, 120 and 365-days of the primary operation using, adjusted for age and gender. We compared the performance of these models in predicting all-cause mortality using the area under the Receiver-operator characteristics curve (AUROC) and the Index of Prediction Accuracy (IPA). We included 276,594 elective primary THRs and 338,287 elective primary KRs for any indication. Mortality within 90-days was 0.34% (N = 939) after THR and 0.26% (N = 865) after KR. The AUROC for the CCI and Elixhauser scores in models of mortality ranged from 0.78-0.81 after THR and KR, which slightly outperformed models with ASA grade (AUROC = 0.77-0.78). HFRS performed similarly to ASA grade (AUROC = 0.76-0.78). The inclusion of comorbidities prior to the primary operation offers no improvement beyond models with comorbidities at the time of the primary. The discriminative ability of all prediction models was best for mortality within 30 days and worst for mortality within 365 days. Comorbidity scores add little improvement beyond simpler models with age, gender and ASA grade for predicting mortality within one year after elective hip or knee replacement. The additional patient-specific information required to construct comorbidity scores must be balanced against their prediction gain when considering their utility.

Despite significant clinical progress, checkpoint blockade remains limited by variable response rates, resistance, and toxicity. Activating costimulatory receptors offers a promising alternative to enhance anti-tumor immunity. However, there is insufficient understanding of how to mimic physiological membrane-anchored costimulatory ligands. Here, we describe a strategy for developing effective agonists of the costimulatory receptor CD27 by increasing both antibody valency and FcγRIIB engagement. Engineered anti-CD27 antibodies capable of tetravalent binding to CD27 and selective FcγRIIB association exhibit potent T cell stimulatory activity and anti-tumor efficacy in pre-clinical models, compared to bivalent counterparts. The anti-tumor effects of the tetravalent antibody are mediated through CD8⁺ T cell activation without evidence of regulatory T cell depletion. Mechanistically, whereas the increase in avidity drives more efficient CD27 clustering, FcγRIIB engagement triggers polarization of receptor clusters to the cell-cell interface and reduces receptor internalization. This work provides a framework for developing more effective agonist-based T cell stimulatory therapies. CD27 is a key T-cell costimulatory receptor, but efforts to target CD27 have been limited by the poor clinical efficacy of first-generation anti-CD27 antibodies. The authors here engineer higher-valency antibodies by more effectively engaging CD27 and selectively binding to FcγRIIB, which enhance anti-tumor activity.

Elective hip and knee replacement operations were suspended in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this suspension and continued disruption to the delivery of joint replacement surgery is still emerging. We describe the impact of the pandemic on the provision of publicly funded elective hip and knee replacement surgery at one teaching hospital in England and on which patients had surgery. We included all elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements performed at one hospital between January 2016 and June 2021. Using data for the years 2016-2019, we estimated the expected number of operations and beds occupied per month in January 2020 to June 2021 using time series linear models (adjusting for season and trend). We compared the predictions with the real data for January 2020 to June 2021 to assess the impact of the pandemic on the provision of elective hip and knee replacements. We compared the length of stay and characteristics (age, gender, number of comorbidities, index of multiple deprivation) of patients who had surgery before the pandemic with those who had surgery during the pandemic. We included 6,964 elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements between January 2016 and June 2021. Between January 2020 and June 2021 primary hip replacement volume was 59% of predicted, and 47% for primary knee replacements. Revision hip replacement volume was 77% of predicted, and 42% for revision knee replacement. Median length of stay was one day shorter for primary (4 vs 3 days) and revision (6 vs 5 days) operations during the pandemic compared with before. Patients operated on during the pandemic were younger and had slightly more comorbidities than those operated on before the pandemic. The restricted provision of elective hip and knee replacements during the COVID-19 pandemic changed the patient casemix, but did not introduce new inequalities in access to these operations. Patients were younger, had more comorbidities, and stayed in hospital for less time than those treated before the pandemic. Approximately half the number of operations were performed during the pandemic than would have been expected and the effect was greatest for revision knee replacements.

Background Infantile colic is a distressing condition characterised by excessive crying in the first few months of life. The aim of this research was to update the synthesis of evidence of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) research literature on infantile colic and establish what evidence is currently available. Methods Medline, Embase and AMED (via Ovid), Web of Science and Central via Cochrane library were searched from their inception to September 2018. Google Scholar and OpenGrey were searched for grey literature and PROSPERO for ongoing reviews. Published systematic reviews that included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of infants aged up to 1 year, diagnosed with infantile colic using standard diagnostic criteria, were eligible. Reviews of RCTs that assessed the effectiveness of any individual CAM therapy were included. Three reviewers were involved in data extraction and quality assessment using the AMSTAR-2 scale and risk of bias using the ROBIS tool. Results Sixteen systematic reviews were identified. Probiotics, fennel extract and spinal manipulation show promise to alleviate symptoms of colic, although some concerns remain. Acupuncture and soy are currently not recommended. The majority of the reviews were assessed as having high or unclear risk of bias and low confidence in the findings. Conclusion There is clearly a need for larger and more methodologically sound RCTs to be conducted on the effectiveness of some CAM therapies for IC. Particular focus on probiotics in non-breastfed infants is pertinent. Systematic review registration PROSPERO: CRD42018092966.

Green tea or green tea extract (GT/GTE) has been demonstrated to reduce insulin resistance and improve glycemic control. However, evidence for this health beneficial effect is inconsistent. This systematic review evaluated the effect of GT/GTE on insulin resistance and glycemic control in people with pre-diabetes/type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, AMED, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were searched up to April 2017 for randomised controlled trials of participants with pre-diabetes or T2DM, where the intervention was GT/GTE. Meta-analysis was performed to assess the standardised mean difference (SMD) in biomarkers of insulin resistance and glycemic control between GT/GTE and placebo groups. Six studies (n=382) were pooled into random-effects meta-analysis. Overall, no differences were found between GT/GTE and the placebo for glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c: SMD, -0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.86 to 0.23), homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR: SMD, 0.10; 95% CI, -0.17 to 0.38), fasting insulin (SMD, -0.25; 95% CI, -0.64 to 0.15), and fasting glucose (SMD, -0.10; 95% CI, -0.50 to 0.30). No evidence support the consumption of GT/GTE could reduce the levels of HbA1c, HOMA-IR, fasting insulin, or fasting glucose in people with pre-diabetes/T2DM. However, the studies included were small and of varying quality.

ObjectivesTo test the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a novel preoperative tailored sleep intervention for patients undergoing total knee replacement.DesignFeasibility two-arm two-centre RCT using 1:1 randomisation with an embedded qualitative study.SettingTwo National Health Service (NHS) secondary care hospitals in England and Wales.ParticipantsPreoperative adult patients identified from total knee replacement waiting lists with disturbed sleep, defined as a score of 0–28 on the Sleep Condition Indicator questionnaire.InterventionThe REST intervention is a preoperative tailored sleep assessment and behavioural intervention package delivered by an Extended Scope Practitioner (ESP), with a follow-up phone call 4 weeks postintervention. All participants received usual care as provided by the participating NHS hospitals.Outcome measuresThe primary aim was to assess the feasibility of conducting a full trial. Patient-reported outcomes were assessed at baseline, 1-week presurgery, and 3 months postsurgery. Data collected to determine feasibility included the number of eligible patients, recruitment rates and intervention adherence. Qualitative work explored the acceptability of the study processes and intervention delivery through interviews with ESPs and patients.ResultsScreening packs were posted to 378 patients and 57 patients were randomised. Of those randomised, 20 had surgery within the study timelines. An appointment was attended by 25/28 (89%) of participants randomised to the intervention. Follow-up outcomes measures were completed by 40/57 (70%) of participants presurgery and 15/57 (26%) postsurgery. Where outcome measures were completed, data completion rates were 80% or higher for outcomes at all time points, apart from the painDETECT: 86% complete at baseline, 72% at presurgery and 67% postsurgery. Interviews indicated that most participants found the study processes and intervention acceptable.ConclusionsThis feasibility study has demonstrated that with some amendments to processes and design, an RCT to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the REST intervention is feasible.Trial registration numberISRCTN14233189.

Background Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, debilitating pain disorder. Dissatisfaction with conventional medicine can lead people with FM to turn to complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). Two previous overviews of systematic reviews of CAM for FM have been published, but they did not assessed for risk of bias in the review process. Methods Five databases Medline, Embase, AMED (via OVID), Web of Science and Central were searched from their inception to December 2015. Reference lists were hand-searched. We had two aims: the first was to provide an up-to-date and rigorously conducted synthesis of systematic reviews of CAM literature on FM; the second was to evaluate the quality of the available systematic review evidence using two different tools: AMSTAR (Shea et al. BMC Med Res Methodol 15; 7:10, 2007) and a more recently developed tool ROBIS (Whiting et al. J Clin Epidemiol 69:225-34, 2016) specifically designed to assess risk of bias in systematic reviews. Any review that assessed one of eight CAM therapies for participants diagnosed with FM was considered. The individual studies had to be randomised controlled trials where the intervention was compared to placebo, treatment as usual or waitlist controls to be included. The primary outcome measure was pain, and the secondary outcome measure was adverse events. Results We identified 15 reviews that met inclusion criteria. There was low-quality evidence that acupuncture improves pain compared to no treatment or standard treatment, but good evidence that it is no better than sham acupuncture. The evidence for homoeopathy, spinal manipulation and herbal medicine was limited. Conclusions Overall, five reviews scored 6 or above using the AMSTAR scale and the inter-rater agreement was good (83.6%), whereas seven reviews achieved a low risk of bias rating using ROBIS and the inter-rater agreement was fair (60.0%). No firm conclusions were drawn for efficacy of either spinal manipulation or homoeopathy for FM. There is limited evidence for topical Capsicum , but further research is required. There is some evidence to support the effectiveness of acupuncture for FM, but further high-quality trials are needed to investigate its benefits, harms and mechanisms of action, compared with no or standard treatment. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42016035846 .

ObjectivesTo explore the impact of a temporary cancellation of elective surgery in winter 2017 on trends in primary hip and knee replacement at a major National Health Service (NHS) Trust, and whether lessons can be learnt about efficient surgery provision.Design and settingObservational descriptive study using interrupted time series analysis of hospital records to explore trends in primary hip and knee replacement surgery at a major NHS Trust, as well as patient characteristics, 2016–2019.InterventionA temporary cancellation of elective services for 2 months in winter 2017.OutcomesNHS-funded hospital admissions for primary hip or knee replacement, length of stay and bed occupancy. Additionally, we explored the ratio of elective to emergency admissions at the Trust as a measure of elective capacity, and the ratio of public to private provision of NHS-funded hip and knee surgery.ResultsAfter winter 2017, there was a sustained reduction in the number of knee replacements, a decrease in the proportion of most deprived people having knee replacements and an increase in average age for knee replacement and comorbidity for both types of surgery. The ratio of public to private provision dropped after winter 2017, and elective capacity generally has reduced over time. There was clear seasonality in provision of elective surgery, with less complex patients admitted during winter.ConclusionsDeclining elective capacity and seasonality has a marked effect on the provision of joint replacement, despite efficiency improvements in hospital treatment. The Trust has outsourced less complex patients to independent providers, and/or treated them during winter when capacity is most limited. There is a need to explore whether these are strategies that could be used explicitly to maximise the use of limited elective capacity, provide benefit to patients and value for money for taxpayers.

ObjectivesThis study aimed to develop a simulation model to support orthopaedic elective capacity planning.MethodsAn open-source, generalisable discrete-event simulation was developed, including a web-based application. The model used anonymised patient records between 2016 and 2019 of elective orthopaedic procedures from a National Health Service (NHS) Trust in England. In this paper, it is used to investigate scenarios including resourcing (beds and theatres) and productivity (lengths of stay, delayed discharges and theatre activity) to support planning for meeting new NHS targets aimed at reducing elective orthopaedic surgical backlogs in a proposed ring-fenced orthopaedic surgical facility. The simulation is interactive and intended for use by health service planners and clinicians.ResultsA higher number of beds (65–70) than the proposed number (40 beds) will be required if lengths of stay and delayed discharge rates remain unchanged. Reducing lengths of stay in line with national benchmarks reduces bed utilisation to an estimated 60%, allowing for additional theatre activity such as weekend working. Further, reducing the proportion of patients with a delayed discharge by 75% reduces bed utilisation to below 40%, even with weekend working. A range of other scenarios can also be investigated directly by NHS planners using the interactive web app.ConclusionsThe simulation model is intended to support capacity planning of orthopaedic elective services by identifying a balance of capacity across theatres and beds and predicting the impact of productivity measures on capacity requirements. It is applicable beyond the study site and can be adapted for other specialties.

ObjectivesOur aim was to identify which patients are likely to stay in hospital longer following total hip replacement surgery.DesignLongitudinal, observational study used routinely collected data.SettingData were collected from an NHS Trust in South-West England between 2016 and 2019.Participants2352 hip replacement patients had complete data and were included in analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThree measures of length of stay were used: a count measure of number of days spent in hospital, a binary measure of ≤7 days/>7 days in hospital and a binary measure of remaining in hospital when medically fit for discharge.ResultsThe mean length of stay was 5.4 days following surgery, with 18% in hospital for more than 7 days, and 11% staying in hospital when medically fit for discharge. Longer hospital stay was associated with older age (OR=1.06, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.08), being female (OR=1.42, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.81) and more comorbidities (OR=3.52, 95% CI 1.45 to 8.55) and shorter length of stay with not having had a recent hospital admission (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.60). Results were similar for remaining in hospital when medically fit for discharge, with the addition of an association with highest socioeconomic deprivation (OR=2.08, 95% CI 1.37 to 3.16).ConclusionsOlder, female patients with more comorbidities and from more socioeconomically deprived areas are likely to remain in hospital for longer following surgery. This study produced regression models demonstrating consistent results across three measures of prolonged hospital stay following hip replacement surgery. These findings could be used to inform surgery planning and when supporting patient discharge following surgery.