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The complexity and natural variability of ecosystems present a challenge for reliable detection of change due to anthropogenic influences. This issue is exacerbated by necessary trade-offs that reduce the quality and resolution of survey data for assessments at large scales. The Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) is a large inland wetland complex in northern Alberta, Canada. Despite its geographic isolation, the PAD is threatened by encroachment of oil sands mining in the Athabasca watershed and hydroelectric dams in the Peace watershed. Methods capable of reliably detecting changes in ecosystem health are needed to evaluate and manage risks. Between 2011 and 2016, aquatic macroinvertebrates were sampled across a gradient of wetland flood frequency, applying both microscope-based morphological identification and DNA metabarcoding. By using multispecies occupancy models, we demonstrate that DNA metabarcoding detected a much broader range of taxa and more taxa per sample compared to traditional morphological identification and was essential to identifying significant responses to flood and thermal regimes. We show that family-level occupancy masks high variation among genera and quantify the bias of barcoding primers on the probability of detection in a natural community. Interestingly, patterns of community assembly were nearly random, suggesting a strong role of stochasticity in the dynamics of the metacommunity. This variability seriously compromises effective monitoring at local scales but also reflects resilience to hydrological and thermal variability. Nevertheless, simulations showed the greater efficiency of metabarcoding, particularly at a finer taxonomic resolution, provided the statistical power needed to detect change at the landscape scale.

The Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) in western Canada is one of the largest inland deltas in the world. Flooding caused by the expansion of lakes beyond normal shorelines occurred during the summer of 2020 and provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the capabilities of remote sensing platforms to map surface water expansion into vegetated landscape with complex surface connectivity. Firstly, multi-source remotely sensed data via satellites were used to create a temporal reconstruction of the event spanning May to September. Optical synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and altimeter data were used to reconstruct surface water area and elevation as seen from space. Lastly, temporal water surface area and level data obtained from the existing satellites and hydrometric stations were used as input data in the CNES Large-Scale SWOT Simulator, which provided an overview of the newly launched SWOT satellite ability to monitor such flood events. The results show a 25% smaller water surface area for optical instruments compared to SAR. Simulations show that SWOT would have greatly increased the spatio-temporal understanding of the flood dynamics with complete PAD coverage three to four times per month. Overall, seasonal vegetation growth was a major obstacle for water surface area retrieval, especially for optical sensors.

The western cordillera supplies freshwater across much of western Canada mainly through meltwater from snow and ice. This “alpine water tower” has been, and is projected to be, associated with changes in the seasonality and amount of freshwater availability, which are critical in supporting the societal and environmental flow needs of the region. This study incorporates existing information to synthesize and evaluate current and future freshwater supplies and demands across major north-, west-, and east-flowing sub-basins of the Canadian western cordillera. The assessment of supply indicators reveals several historical changes that are projected to continue, and be exacerbated, particularly by the end of this century and under a high emission scenario. The greatest and most widespread impact is the seasonality of streamflow characterized by earlier spring freshets, increased winter, and decreased summer flow. Future winter and spring warming over all basins will result in decreases in end of season snow and glacier mass balance with greatest declines in more southern regions. In many areas, there will be a greater likelihood of summer freshwater shortages. All sub-basins have environmental and economic freshwater demands and pressures, especially in more southern watersheds where population and infrastructure are more prevalent and industrial, agricultural, and water energy needs are higher. Concerns regarding the continued ability to maintain suitable aquatic habitats and adequate water quality are issues across all regions. These water supply changes along with continued and increasing demands will combine to create a variety of freshwater vulnerabilities across all regions of western Canada. Southern basins including the South Saskatchewan and Okanagan are likely to experience the greatest vulnerabilities due to future summer freshwater supply shortages and increasing economic demands. In more northern areas, vulnerabilities primarily relate to how the rapidly changing landscape (mainly associated with permafrost thaw) impacts freshwater quantity and quality. These vulnerabilities will require various adaptation measures in response to alterations in the timing and amount of future freshwater supplies and demands.

A project was constructed to integrate remotely sensed data from multiple sensors and platforms to characterize range of ecosystem characteristics in the Peace–Athabasca Delta in Northern Alberta, Canada. The objective of this project was to provide a framework for the processing of multisensor data to extract ecosystem information describing complex deltaic wetland environments. The data used in this study was based on a passive satellite-based earth observation multispectral sensor (Sentinel-2) and airborne discrete light detection and ranging (LiDAR). The data processing strategy adopted here allowed us to employ a data mining approach to grouping of the input variables into ecologically meaningful clusters. Using this approach, we described not only the reflective characteristics of the cover, but also ascribe vertical and horizontal structure, thereby differentiating spectrally similar, but ecologically distinct, ground features. This methodology provides a framework for assessing the impact of ecosystems on radiance, as measured by Earth observing systems, where it forms the basis for sampling and analysis. This final point will be the focus of future work.

This study examines the response of a cold-regions deltaic wetland ecosystem in northwestern Canada to two separate and differing seasonal wetting cycles. The goal of this paper was to examine the nature of reflected electromagnetic energy measured by earth observation (EO) satellites, and to assess whether seasonal wetland hydroperiod and episodic flooding events impact the information retrieved by the Sentinel-2 sensors. The year 2018 represents a year characterized by a large spring freshet and ice-jam flooding, while 2019 represents a year characterized more by summer open-water flooding. We applied the Modified Normalized Difference Wetness Index (MNDWI) to address the effects of the wetting cycles. The response of the vegetative cover was tracked using the fraction of the absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) and the Leaf Area Index (LAI). All three indices were viewed through the lens of cover classes as derived through a previously published study by the authors. The study provides a framework for designing longer-term studies where multiple intra- and inter-annual hydrological cycles can be accessed via EO data. Future studies will enable the examination of lag times inherent in the response to the various water sources applied to spectral response and incorporate this EO approach into a monitoring framework.

Wetland ecosystems are sensitive to climate variation, yet tracking vegetation type and structure changes through time remains a challenge. This study examines how Landsat-derived vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) correspond with lidar-derived canopy height model (CHM) changes from 2000 to 2018 across the wetland landscape of the Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD), Canada. By comparing CHM change and NDVI and EVI trends across woody and herbaceous land covers, this study fills a gap in understanding long-term vegetation responses in northern wetlands. Findings show that ~35% of the study area experienced canopy growth, while 2% saw a reduction in height. CHM change revealed 11% ecotonal expansion, where shrub and treed swamps encroached on meadow and marsh areas. NDVI and EVI correlated significantly (p < 0.001) with CHM, particularly in shrub swamps (r2 = 0.40, 0.35) and upland forests (NDVI r2 = 0.37). However, EVI trends aligned more strongly with canopy expansion, while NDVI captured mature tree height growth and wetland drying, indicated by rising land surface temperatures (LST). These results highlight the contrasting responses of NDVI and EVI—NDVI being more sensitive to moisture-related changes such as wetland drying, and EVI aligning more closely with canopy structural changes—emphasizing the value of combining lidar and satellite indices to monitor wetland ecosystems in a warming climate.

The lower Athabasca River (Canada) has experienced notable declines in streamflow and increasing oil sands development since the 1970s. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on navigability using both observed historical and projected future flows derived via hydrological simulations driven by an ensemble of statistically downscaled general circulation model climate data. Our use of proposed indices that form the Aboriginal Navigation Index (ANI) and a new index based on percentage over threshold (POT) occurrences yielded novel insights into anticipated changes to the flow regime. Comparisons of near (2041–2070) and far (2071–2100) future periods with the historical baseline (1981–2010) yielded results that project significant reductions in the 500 m3 s−1 POT during the fall navigability period spanning weeks 34 to 43, as well as reductions in the integrated ANIFall. These results indicate that challenging navigational conditions may become more frequent in the second half of the 21st century, not only during this fall period but also earlier into the summer, due to a shift in the flow regime, with potentially severe impacts on the users of the river channels. Our assessment approach is transferable to other regional study areas and should be considered in water management and environmental flow frameworks.

Climatic change is affecting streamflow regimes of the permafrost region, altering mean and extreme streamflow conditions. In this study, we analyzed historical trends in annual mean flow (Qmean), minimum flow (Qmin), maximum flow (Qmax) and Qmax timing across 84 hydrometric stations in the permafrost region of Canada. Furthermore, we related streamflow trends with temperature and precipitation trends, and used a multiple linear regression (MLR) framework to evaluate climatic controls on streamflow components. The results revealed spatially varied trends across the region, with significantly increasing (at 10% level) Qmin for 43% of stations as the most prominent trend, and a relatively smaller number of stations with significant Qmean, Qmax and Qmax timing trends. Temperatures over both the cold and warm seasons showed significant warming for >70% of basin areas upstream of the hydrometric stations, while precipitation exhibited increases for >15% of the basins. Comparisons of the 1976 to 2005 basin-averaged climatological means of streamflow variables with precipitation and temperature revealed a positive correlation between Qmean and seasonal precipitation, and a negative correlation between Qmean and seasonal temperature. The basin-averaged streamflow, precipitation and temperature trends showed weak correlations that included a positive correlation between Qmin and October to March precipitation trends, and negative correlations of Qmax timing with October to March and April to September temperature trends. The MLR-based variable importance analysis revealed the dominant controls of precipitation on Qmean and Qmax, and temperature on Qmin. Overall, this study contributes towards an enhanced understanding of ongoing changes in streamflow regimes and their climatic controls across the Canadian permafrost region, which could be generalized for the broader pan-Arctic regions.

The earth has vast amounts of surface and sub-surface freshwater in the form of lakes, reservoirs, rivers, wetlands, soil water, groundwater, as well as water stored in snowpacks, glaciers, and permafrost [...]

In contrast to a large body of scientific literature that is based on empirical data and physically based and mathematical analyses, Wolfe et al. (2020) cited proxy-based paleolimnological evidence and argued that the regulation of Peace River has not played a role in the reduced incidence of large ice-jam floods. Such events are essential to the sustenance of perched basins located in the Peace Sector of the Peace–Athabasca Delta. Herein, the arguments advanced by Wolfe et al. (2020) are critically examined and shown to be unconvincing. Relevant literature indicates that a drying trend was first noticed after construction of the Bennett Dam. It is shown, moreover, that the belatedly questioned Traditional Knowledge and Historical ice-jam flood record is a reliable source of information, at least with respect to large floods, which are crucial to perched-basin replenishment. Detailed examination of the Wolfe et al. (2020) magnetic susceptibility (MS) profiles and their interpretation points to serious inconsistencies and leads to a renewed recommendation for coring perched, rather than readily flooded, basins in the future. It is also recommended that the oxbow lakes cored nearly two decades ago be revisited to obtain updated MS profiles. Deficiencies in the interpretation of inferred isotopic-composition time series of three perched basins suggest that all factors influencing such environmental variables be considered before drawing conclusions regarding the frequency of past floods. Contrairement a une litterature scientifique abondante qui repose sur des donnees empiriques et des analyses physiques et mathematiques, Wolfe et coll. (2020) citent des preuves paleolimnologiques basees sur des donnees indirectes et soutiennent que la regulation de la riviere de la Paix n’a pas joue de role dans la reduction de l’incidence des grandes inondations dues aux embacles. De tels evenements sont essentiels a la subsistance des bassins perches situes dans le secteur de la Paix du delta Paix-Athabasca. Les arguments avances par Wolfe et coll. (2020) sont ici examines de maniere critique et s’averent peu convaincants. La litterature pertinente indique qu’une tendance a l’assechement a ete remarquee pour la premiere fois apres la construction du barrage de Bennett. Il est en outre demontre que le savoir traditionnel, interroge tardivement, et le registre historique des inondations dues aux embacles constituent des sources d’information fiables, du moins en ce qui concerne les grandes inondations, qui sont cruciales pour la reconstitution des bassins perches. L’examen detaille des profils de susceptibilite magnetique (SM) de Wolfe et coll. (2020) et leur interpretation fait apparaitre de graves incoherences et conduit a recommander a nouveau a l’avenir le carottage des bassins perches plutot que des bassins facilement inondables. Il est egalement recommande de reexaminer les lacs en croissant carottes il y a pres de deux decennies afin d’obtenir des profils de SM actualises. Les lacunes dans l’interpretation des series chronologiques de la composition isotopique deduite de trois bassins perches suggerent que tous les facteurs influencant ces variables environnementales doivent etre pris en compte avant de tirer des conclusions concernant la frequence des inondations passees.