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Sea level rise and extreme weather events threaten the livelihoods and possibly the long-term existence of whole island nations. While the media, policy, and often scientific arenas essentially focus their attention on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which are widely recognised as hotspots of global climate change, the situation of the numerous other vulnerable island territories has been relatively neglected. As a result, the focus on SIDS has paved the way for mainstream adaptation research and, in turn, for biases in the interpretation of climate change vulnerability and risks of small islands in general. Here, we argue that such an overly narrow scope severely limits our understanding of island-specific issues that influence island societies’ adaptability to on-going and future climate change. This article reviews the current perspective on challenges and opportunities for climate change adaptation on SIDS and compares it with other types of island territories, especially dependent islands of continental states and semi-autonomous sub-national island jurisdictions (SNIJ). This comparison reveals that despite critical socio-political differences between the respective island types, more general lessons can be learned as island territories at large face similar issues both regarding the drivers of vulnerability and exposure and the adaptation measures needed. We propose an analytical framework for looking ‘beyond SIDS’ that includes the recognition of critical issues (asymmetrical governance structures, archipelagic constellations, inter-island connections) that shape island societies’ vulnerability and leeway for adaptation to climate-related hazards.

There is emerging evidence of the important role of indigenous knowledge for climate change adaptation. The necessity to consider different knowledge systems in climate change research has been established in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, gaps in author expertise and inconsistent assessment by the IPCC lead to a regionally heterogeneous and thematically generic coverage of the topic. We conducted a scoping review of peer-reviewed academic literature to support better integration of the existing and emerging research on indigenous knowledge in IPCC assessments. The research question underpinning this scoping review is: How is evidence of indigenous knowledge on climate change adaptation geographically and thematically distributed in the peer-reviewed academic literature? As the first systematic global evidence map of indigenous knowledge in the climate adaptation literature, the study provides an overview of the evidence of indigenous knowledge for adaptation across regions and categorises relevant concepts related to indigenous knowledge and their contexts in the climate change literature across disciplines. The results show knowledge clusters around tropical rural areas, subtropics, drylands, and adaptation through planning and practice and behavioural measures. Knowledge gaps include research in northern and central Africa, northern Asia, South America, Australia, urban areas, and adaptation through capacity building, as well as institutional and psychological adaptation. This review supports the assessment of indigenous knowledge in the IPCC AR6 and also provides a basis for follow-up research, e.g. bibliometric analysis, primary research of underrepresented regions, and review of grey literature.

Coastal zones and small islands are among the areas most impacted by global climate change and face great challenges for adaptation. While being considered as particularly vulnerable, many coastal communities, nevertheless, have long traditions of living not only by but with the sea. If such ecotones–places where ecosystems intersect–have features distinct from purely continental regions, the question is how life with the shore translates into adaptability towards environmental change. Life at the shore shapes emergent social relationships, local traditions, and collective memory. At the same time, issues such as tourism development, demographic change, and national and international administrations influence how environmental challenges in coastal areas are addressed. In this paper, I analyse how place-specific social structures and conflicting influences in ecotones affect adaptability to sea-level rise in coastal areas. This research draws on quantitative and qualitative data from a comparative study of two case studies, a coastal town and an archipelago, in Southwest England.

Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.

Scenario development faces the tension between broadening the range of future possibilities to address uncertainty and the path dependency inherited from historical conditions. This unresolved tension affects adaptation to future risks, especially at the local level, resulting in uncertainty that has prevented effective governance, mainstreaming across policy instruments, and transformative implementation. In this paper, we contribute to the growing literature on local risk and adaptation scenarios, reconciling local extensions of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with context-specific path dependency analysis focused on urban development dynamics. To do so, we first extend the global SSPs to provide regional narratives for the Metropolitan Region of Jakarta, a rapidly developing megacity in Southeast Asia. Second, we reconcile the scenarios with path dependencies from urban development processes (e.g. sprawl and urbanisation) across each narrative. Finally, we provide context-rich regional information to strengthen the salience and legitimacy of the scenarios. To achieve these results, we implement participatory scenario development and urban dynamics cross-analysis under the path dependency lens. Our findings show that the region’s narratives extend and contrast with assumptions found in the global narratives (e.g. SSP1 leads to higher inequality). Moreover, the regional narratives need to be compatible with idiosyncrasies regarding the region’s national role (e.g. global economic hub) and tensions from inter-municipal competition and informality, for example. The urban dynamics in the region also foreground strong path-dependent trends for future adaptation preconditions. Major urban interventions, such as sea walls and transit-oriented systems, concentrate investment and restrict the distributive aspects of future pathways. Additionally, sprawl and gentrification are present across all future pathways and may sap adaptation effectiveness while reproducing substantial development inequality. These results strengthen informed decision-making by providing context-rich data. They also contribute to scenario development more broadly by setting the stage for transformative policy scenarios assumptions, reducing uncertainty and increasing salience and fairness.

Climate change has been recognised as a major concern in coastal hotspots exposed to multiple climate hazards under regionally specific characteristics of vulnerability. We review the emerging research and current trends in the academic literature on coastal climate risk and adaptation from a human security perspective. The ecological and socioeconomic developments are analysed for key risk areas, including coastal infrastructure; water, food and fisheries; health; human mobility; and conflict, taking the different geographical contexts of coastal areas in islands, megacities and deltas into consideration. Compounding and cascading interactions require integrative research and policy approaches to address the growing complexity. Governance mechanisms focus on coastal management and adaptation, nature-based solutions and community-based adaptation, considering their synergies and trade-offs. This perspective allows for a holistic view on climate risks to human security and vicious circles of societal instability in coastal systems and the interconnectedness of different risk dimensions and systems necessary for sustainable and transformative adaptation solutions for the most affected coastal hotspots.

Adaptation to climate change is often conceptualized as a dichotomy, with responses being either planned (formal and structured) or autonomous (organic and self-organized, often known as “everyday adaptation”). Recent literature on adaptation responses has highlighted the existence and importance of the interplay between autonomous and planned adaptation, but examination of this interaction has been limited to date. We use a global database of 1682 peer-reviewed articles on adaptation responses to systematically examine autonomous and planned adaptations, with an emphasis on how these types of adaptations interact with one another. We propose a third category, mixed adaptation, which demonstrates characteristics of both autonomous and planned types, and which recognizes nuances in how organization, external support, formality, and autonomy manifest in the fuzzy space between the two. We find that more than one-third of articles reporting on adaptation responses fall into this mixed category, with cases across sectors and world regions. We develop a qualitative typology of mixed adaptation that identifies nine ways that autonomous and planned adaptation interact and influence each other both positively and negatively. Based on these findings, we argue for more nuanced examinations of the interplay between autonomous and planned adaptation and for conceptualizing adaptation planning as a continuum between the two rather than a dichotomy. Exploring the patterns of interplay from a large database of adaptation responses offers new insights on the relative roles of both autonomous and planned adaptation for mobilizing adaptation pathways in locally relevant, scalable, effective, and equitable ways.

Disabled populations are disproportionally affected by the current climate and environmental crises. However, they are hardly included and their knowledge is neglected in processes addressing these challenges. To achieve the UN Agenda 2030, societies should actively engage with the values, experiences and knowledge held by people with disabilities in science and policy contexts. In this paper, we suggest that addressing ‘deep’ leverage points by 1) recognising diverse valuations of and connections to nature by different social groups (i.e. re-connecting to nature), 2) including disabled populations in decision-making and knowledge creation (i.e. re-structuring institutions), and 3) promoting inclusive education and knowledge generation (i.e. re-thinking knowledge production) can facilitate the development of inclusive transformation pathways and foster sustainable human-nature relationships.

Populations in many coastal urban areas are increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards. At the same time, the number of people residing in coastal cities is growing, and, especially in the Global South, these cities are characterised by rapid urbanisation and social inequality. However, the progress of adaptation is lagging, and there is a limited understanding of how future socioeconomic urban developments will affect cities’ social vulnerability and challenges to adaptation. We use the case study of Mumbai to apply a participatory scenario approach, in which we downscale the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) narratives to the local level. Our results stress the relevance of addressing social inequality in urban change processes across different sectors, including labour, housing, transport, and health and streamlining urban planning across different governance scales. Our study lays the ground for integrated modelling of future vulnerability and exposure scenarios and the development of local adaptation pathways.

Small islands are among regions most affected by the impacts of global climate change. They are regarded as particularly vulnerable, but from a different point of view, island societies also feature a particular sociocultural resilience, which distinguishes them from continental societies. How do social structures increase the adaptive capacity of small islands towards sea-level rise? I consider the concept of social capital as applicable in order to understand the role of communities and collective action in a context of vulnerability and resilience. In this paper, I present results from a case study on the Isles of Scilly, UK. A mixed methods qualitative approach has been applied to analyse the various roles of social capital for the adaptation to climate change impacts on this small archipelago, which is representative of European small islands in an economically advanced, but isolated context. The Isles of Scilly are among the most vulnerable island regions in Europe. The results of the research contribute to the general discussion on social capital and the relevance of collective action for the adaptation to global climate change. How useful is the concept? And how relevant is it for small islands, such as the Isles of Scilly?