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Atmospheric blocking represents an important aspect of the mid-latitude weather variability, but the different processes contributing to its formation and maintenance are not yet fully understood. This study investigates the role that diabatic processes, in particular the release of latent heating in strongly ascending airstreams, play in the dynamics and spatio-temporal variability of blocking in a detailed 38-year global climatological analysis. The results show that the formation and (re-)intensification of blocking are often preceded by latent heating connected to upstream baroclinic developments. While the importance of latent heating varies considerably between individual blocking events and different regions, in particular between ocean and continents, latent heating is generally most important during onset and in more intense and larger blocks. The episodic nature of latent heating during the blocking life cycle, associated with a series of transient cyclones approaching the blocking, can contribute to both the high- (fast onset and fluctuation in intensity and size) and low-frequency (maintenance and quasi-stationarity during maturation phase) properties of blocking anticyclones and provide the required flow amplification in addition to dry-dynamical interaction between synoptic eddies and blocking. This amplification results from a combination of the direct injection of anticyclonic air into the upper-troposphere within cross-isentropic ascending airstreams, setting up large-scale anticyclonic PV anomalies, and the advection of PV by the enhanced divergent outflow at the tropopause (indirect effect). This divergent outflow on the western flank of the blocking anticyclone interacts with the upper-level PV gradient and leads to a westward amplification of the ridge, diminishing the tendency for dissipation and the eastward advection by the background flow, thus contributing to blocking stationarity. Taking into account such diabatic mechanisms in blocking dynamics will be important to improve predictions of blocking and assess future changes in the extratropical large-scale circulation.

Owing to the huge potential impact of precipitation extremes on society, it is important to better understand the mechanisms causing these events, and their variations with respect to a changing climate. In this study, the importance of a particular category of weather systems, namely cyclones, for the occurrence of regional-scale precipitation extremes is quantified globally using the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) dataset. Such an event-based climatological approach complements previous case studies, which established the physical relationship between cyclones and heavy precipitation. A high percentage of precipitation extremes is found to be directly related to cyclones. Regional hot spots are identified where this percentage of cyclone-induced precipitation extremes exceeds 80% (e.g., in the Mediterranean region, Newfoundland, near Japan, and over the South China Sea). The results suggest that in these regions changes of heavy precipitation with global warming are specifically sensitive to variations in the dynamical forcing, for example, related to shifts of the storm tracks. Furthermore, properties of cyclones causing extreme precipitation are investigated. In the exit regions of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, these cyclones are on average slightly more intense than low pressure systems not associated with precipitation extremes, but no differences with respect to minimum core pressure are found in most other parts of the midlatitudes. The fundamental linkage between cyclones and precipitation extremes may thus provide guidance to forecasters involved in flood prediction, but it is unlikely that forecasting rules based on simple cyclone properties can be established.

The role of moisture for extratropical atmospheric dynamics is particularly pronounced within warm conveyor belts (WCBs), which are characterized by intense latent heat release and precipitation formation. Based on the WCB climatology for the period 1979–2010 presented in Part I, two important aspects of the WCB moisture cycle are investigated: the evaporative moisture sources and the relevance of WCBs for total and extreme precipitation. The most important WCB moisture source regions are the western North Atlantic and North Pacific in boreal winter and the South Pacific and western South Atlantic in boreal summer. The strongest continental moisture source is South America. During winter, source locations are mostly local and over the ocean, and the associated surface evaporation occurs primarily during 5 days prior to the start of the WCB ascent. Long-range transport and continental moisture recycling are much more important in summer, when a substantial fraction of the evaporation occurs more than 10 days before the ascent. In many extratropical regions, WCB moisture supply is related to anomalously strong surface evaporation, enforced by low relative humidity and high winds over the ocean. WCBs are highly relevant for total and extreme precipitation in many parts of the extratropics. For instance, the percentage of precipitation extremes directly associated with a WCB is higher than 70%–80% over southeastern North America, Japan, and large parts of southern South America. A proper representation of WCBs in weather forecast and climate models is thus essential for the correct prediction of extreme precipitation events.

Weather extremes are often associated with atmospheric blocking, but how the underlying physical processes leading to blocking respond to climate change is not yet fully understood. Here we track blocks as upper-level negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies and apply a Lagrangian analysis to 100 years of present-day (∼2000) and future (∼2100, under the RCP8.5 scenario) climate simulations restarted from the Community Earth System Model–Large Ensemble Project runs (CESM-LENS) to identify different physical processes and quantify how their relative importance changes in a warmer and more humid climate. The trajectories reveal two contrasting airstreams that both contribute to the formation and maintenance of blocking: latent heating in strongly ascending airstreams (moist processes) and quasi-adiabatic flow near the tropopause with weak radiative cooling (dry processes). Both are reproduced remarkably well when compared against ERA-Interim reanalysis, and their relative importance varies regionally and seasonally. The response of blocks to climate change is complex and differs regionally, with a general increase in the importance of moist processes due to stronger latent heating (+1 K in the median over the Northern Hemisphere) and a larger fraction (+15%) of strongly heated warm conveyor belt air masses, most pronounced over the storm tracks. Future blocks become larger (+7%) and their negative PV anomaly slightly intensifies (+0.8%). Using a Theil–Sen regression model, we propose that the increase in size and intensity is related to the increase in latent heating, resulting in stronger cross-isentropic transport of air with low PV into the blocking anticyclones. Our findings provide evidence that moist processes become more important for the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the midlatitudes, with the potential for larger and more intense blocks.

Explosive volcanic eruptions influence near-surface temperature and precipitation especially in the monsoon regions, but the impact varies with different eruption seasons and latitudes. To study this variability, two groups of ensemble simulations are performed with volcanic eruptions in June and December at 0∘ representing an equatorial eruption (EQ) and at 30∘ N and 30∘ S representing Northern and Southern Hemisphere eruptions (NH and SH). Results show significant cooling especially in areas with enhanced volcanic aerosol content. Compared to the EQ eruption, stronger cooling emerges in the Northern Hemisphere after the NH eruption and in the Southern Hemisphere after the SH eruption. Stronger precipitation variations occur in the tropics than in the high latitudes. Summer and winter eruptions lead to similar hydrological impacts. The NH and the SH eruptions have reversed climate impacts, especially in the regions of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM). After the NH eruption, direct radiative effects of volcanic aerosols induce changes in the interhemispheric and land–sea thermal contrasts, which move the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) southward and weaken the SASM. This reduces the moisture transport from the ocean and reduces cloud formation and precipitation in India. The subsequent radiative feedbacks due to regional cloud cover lead to warming in India. After the SH eruption, vice versa, a northward movement of the ITCZ and strengthening of the SASM, along with enhanced cloud formation, lead to enhanced precipitation and cooling in India. This emphasizes the sensitivity of regional climate impacts of volcanic eruptions to eruption latitude, which relates to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional physical feedbacks. Our results indicate the importance of considering dynamical and physical feedbacks to understand the mechanism behind regional climate responses to volcanic eruptions and may also shed light on the climate impact and potential mechanisms of stratospheric aerosol engineering.

The subtropical free troposphere plays a critical role in the radiative balance of the Earth. However, the complex interactions controlling moisture in this sensitive region and, in particular, the relative importance of long‐range transport compared to lower‐tropospheric mixing, remain unclear. This study uses the regional COSMO model equipped with stable water isotopes and passive water tracers to quantify the contributions of different evaporative sources to the moisture and its stable isotope signals in the eastern subtropical North Atlantic free troposphere. In summer, this region is characterized by two alternating large‐scale circulation regimes: (i) dry, isotopically depleted air from the upper‐level extratropics, and (ii) humid, enriched air advected from Northern Africa within the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) consisting of a mixture of moisture of diverse origin (tropical and extratropical North Atlantic, Africa, Europe, the Mediterranean). This diversity of moisture sources in regime (ii) arises from the convergent inflow at low levels of air from different neighbouring regions into the Saharan heat low (SHL), where it is mixed and injected by convective plumes into the large‐scale flow aloft, and thereafter expelled to the North Atlantic within the SAL. Remarkably, this regime is associated with a large contribution of moisture that evaporated from the North Atlantic, which makes a detour through the SHL and eventually reaches the 850–550 hPa layer above the Canaries. Moisture transport from Europe via the SHL to the same layer leads to the strongest enrichment in heavy isotopes (δ2H correlates most strongly with this tracer). The vertical profiles over the North Atlantic show increased humidity and δ2H and reduced static stability in the 850–550 hPa layer, and smaller cloud fraction in the boundary layer in regime (ii) compared to regime (i), highlighting the key role of moisture transport through the SHL in modulating the radiative balance in this region. This study shows that moisture transported in the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from Africa to the North Atlantic originates from various evaporative sources. The moisture is advected at low levels into the Saharan heat low, mixed and injected by convective plumes into the large‐scale SAL flow aloft. Over the North Atlantic, the SAL is associated with a specific signature in the moisture content, its isotopic composition and the associated cloud cover, with implications for the radiative balance.

Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air along tilted isentropes to the middle or lower troposphere, where this air leads to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. These plumes of originally stratospheric air can only occasionally be observed at the surface because (i) stable boundary layers prevent an efficient vertical transport down to the surface, and (ii) even if boundary layer turbulence were strong enough to enable this transport, the originally stratospheric air mass can be diluted by mixing, such that only a weak stratospheric signal can be recorded at the surface. Most documented examples of stratospheric air reaching the surface occurred in mountainous regions. This study investigates two such events, using a passive stratospheric air mass tracer in a mesoscale model to explore the processes that enable the transport down to the surface. The events occurred in early May 2006 in the Rocky Mountains and in mid-June 2006 on the Tibetan Plateau. In both cases, a tropopause fold associated with an upper-level front enabled stratospheric air to enter the troposphere. In our model simulation of the North American case, the strong frontal zone reaches down to 700 hPa and leads to a fairly direct vertical transport of the stratospheric tracer along the tilted isentropes to the surface. In the Tibetan Plateau case, however, no near-surface front exists and a reservoir of high stratospheric tracer concentrations initially forms at 300–400 hPa, without further isentropic descent. However, entrainment at the top of the very deep boundary layer (reaching to 300 hPa over the Tibetan Plateau) and turbulence within the boundary layer allows for downward transport of stratospheric air to the surface. Despite the strongly differing dynamical processes, stratospheric tracer concentrations at the surface reach peak values of 10 %–20 % of the imposed stratospheric value in both cases, corroborating the potential of deep stratosphere-to-troposphere transport events to significantly influence surface ozone concentrations in these regions.

In this study the dynamical mechanisms shaping the evolution of a marine cold air outbreak (CAO) that occurred over the Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen Seas in June 2010 are investigated in an isentropic framework. The drainage of cold air from West Antarctica into the interior Ross Sea, its subsequent export, and the formation of a dome of cold air off the sea ice edge are shown to be intimately linked to a lower-tropospheric cyclone, as well as the cyclonic breaking of an upper-level potential vorticity trough. The dome formation is accompanied by an extreme deepening of the boundary layer, whose top reaches to the height of the low-lying tropopause within the trough, potentially allowing for deep stratosphere–troposphere exchange. A crucial finding of this study is that the decay of the CAO is essentially driven by the circulation associated with a train of mesocyclones and the release of latent heat in their warm sectors. Sensitivity experiments with switched off fluxes of sensible and latent heat reveal that the erosion of the CAO air mass depends critically on the moistening by latent heat fluxes, whereby the synergistic effects of sensible heat fluxes and moist processes amplify the erosion. Within the CAO air mass, the erosion is inhibited by cloud-top radiative cooling and the dissolution of clouds by the entrainment of dryer air. These findings potentially have implications for the representation of CAOs in coarse-resolution climate models.

In this study, the important role of extratropical cyclones and fronts for the atmospheric freshwater flux over the Southern Ocean is analyzed. Based on the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), the freshwater flux associated with cyclones is quantified and it is revealed that the structure of the Southern Hemispheric storm track is strongly imprinted on the climatological freshwater flux. In particular, during austral winter the spiraliform shape of the storm track leads to a band of negative freshwater flux bending toward and around Antarctica, complemented by a strong freshwater input into the midlatitude Pacific, associated with the split storm track. The interannual variability of the wintertime high-latitude freshwater flux is shown to be largely determined by the variability of strong precipitation (>75th percentile). Using a novel and comprehensive method to attribute strong precipitation uniquely to cyclones and fronts, it is demonstrated that over the Southern Ocean between 60% and 90% of the strong precipitation events are due to these synoptic systems. Cyclones are the dominant cause of strong precipitation around Antarctica and in the midlatitudes of the Atlantic and the Pacific, while in the south Indian Ocean and the eastern Atlantic fronts bring most of the strong precipitation. A detailed analysis of the spatial variations of intense front and cyclone precipitation associated with the interannual variability of the wintertime frequency of cyclones in the midlatitude and high-latitude branches of the Pacific storm track underpins the importance of considering both fronts and cyclones in the analysis of the interannual variability of freshwater fluxes.

Tropical free‐tropospheric humidity plays a crucial role for the Earth's radiative balance and climate sensitivity. In addition to atmospheric humidity, stable water isotopes can provide important information about the hydrological cycle. We use the isotope‐ and water tagging‐enabled version of the COSMOiso model to determine isotopic fingerprints of diagnosed moisture pathways over the western tropical Atlantic (WTA). A convection‐permitting, high‐resolution (5 km) nudged simulation is performed for January–February 2020. During this period, the target region is characterized by alternating large‐scale circulation regimes with different humidity and isotope signatures. Moist conditions in the middle troposphere (300–650 hPa) are associated with moisture transport from the south, east, southeast, as well as evaporation from the North Atlantic, while dry conditions correspond to extratropical transport from the north and west. To predict the contribution of different moisture sources, we used a statistical model based on the local specific humidity and temperature as predictors and obtained an R‐squared (R2) of 0.52. Adding water isotopes improved the prediction (R2 = 0.73), showing that isotopes provide unique information on moisture sources and transport patterns beyond conventional local observations. Dry phases over the western tropical Atlantic during January and February 2020 are associated with extratropical transport, while moist phases are associated with southerly transport, transport from the trade wind region and local sources. The moisture regimes could be distinguished based on their humidity and isotopic signatures. A statistical model shows improved prediction of moisture sources when isotopic variables are added, compared to humidity and temperature alone, demonstrating the additional information about moisture sources and pathways contained in isotopic data.