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A modelling study was undertaken to evaluate the contribution of sublimation to an alpine snow mass balance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, snowpack sublimation and snowmelt were simulated for two winters over an alpine ridge transect located in the Canada Rocky Mountains. The resulting snowcover regimes were compared to those from manual snow surveys. Simulations were performed using physically based blowing snow (PBSM) and snowpack ablation (SNOBAL) models. A hydrological response unit (HRU)-based spatial discretization was used rather than a more computationally expensive fully-distributed one. The HRUs were set up to follow an aerodynamic sequence, whereby eroded snow was transported from windswept, upwind HRUs to drift accumulating, downwind HRUs. That snow redistribution by wind can be adequately simulated in computationally efficient HRUs over this ridge has important implications for representing snow transport in large-scale hydrology models and land surface schemes. Alpine snow sublimation losses, in particular blowing snow sublimation losses, were significant. Snow mass losses to sublimation as a percentage of cumulative snowfall were estimated to be 20–32% with the blowing snow sublimation loss amounting to 17–19% of cumulative snowfall. This estimate is considered to be a conservative estimate of the blowing snow sublimation loss in the Canadian Rocky Mountains because the study transect is located in the low alpine zone where the topography is more moderate than the high alpine zone and windflow separation was not observed. An examination of the suitability of PBSM's sublimation estimates in this environment and of the importance of estimating blowing snow sublimation on the simulated snow accumulation regime was conducted by omitting sublimation calculations. Snow accumulation in HRUs was overestimated by 30% when neglecting blowing snow sublimation calculations.

In this time of a changing climate, it is important to know whether lake levels will rise, potentially causing flooding, or river flows will dry up during abnormally dry weather. The Great Lakes region is the largest freshwater lake system in the world. Moreover, agriculture, industry, commerce, and shipping are active in this densely populated region. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) recently implemented the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS) over the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River watershed (WCPS-GLS version 1.0) following a decade of research and development. WCPS, a network of linked models, simulates the complete water cycle, following water as it moves from the atmosphere to the surface, through the river network and into lakes, and back to the atmosphere. Information concerning the water cycle is passed between the models. WCPS is the first short-to-medium-range prediction system of the complete water cycle to be run on an operational basis anywhere. It currently produces two forecasts per day for the next three days. WCPS generally provides reliable results throughout the length of the forecast. The transmission of errors between the component models is reduced by data assimilation. Interactions between the environmental compartments are active. This ongoing intercommunication is valuable for extreme events such as rapid ice freeze-up and flooding or drought caused by abnormal amounts of precipitation. Products include precipitation; evaporation; lake water levels, temperatures, and currents; ice cover; and river flows. These products are of interest to a wide variety of governmental, commercial, and industrial groups, as well as the public.

The Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative (NREI) was established in the late 1990s to address important science questions resulting from previous studies undertaken by the Northern Rivers Basin Study (NRBS). This manuscript summarizes the results from a number of reports on hydrologic research conducted on the Peace-Athabasca-Slave river and lake systems. Specific concerns expressed by the NRBS and subsequent NREI focused on how these systems were being affected by climate change, flow regulation and land-use changes. Issues addressed in this report include: the fate of aquatic perched basins within the Peace-Athabasca Delta under historical and future climate trends; the sources of major floods that replenish these basins and how the frequency, magnitude and source areas of such events have changed over time; the synoptic weather patterns and atmospheric teleconnections that are responsible for the generation of major snowmelt runoff that drive major floods; the potential effect that climate and land-use changes might have on basin runoff and delta lake levels; the specific hydro-climatic conditions required to produce major ice-jam floods on the Peace River and how these may be altered by climate change; remote-sensing methods to document delta flooding and vegetation change; and the dual effect of climate and flow regulation on the water levels of Great Slave Lake and how these may affect other nearshore processes, particularly wind seiches, that influence flooding of the Slave River Delta. A review of the major findings and recommendations for future research concludes the report.

Accurate discharge values form the foundation of effective water resource planning and management. Unfortunately, these data are often perceived as absolute and deterministic by users, modelers, and decision-makers, despite the inherent subjectivity and uncertainty in the data preparation processes. This study is undertaken to examine the discharge estimation methods used by the Water Survey of Canada (WSC) and their impacts on reported discharge values. First, we explain the hydrometric station network, essential terminologies, and fundamental concepts of rating curves. Subsequently, we examine WSC's standard operating procedures (SOPs), including shift, temporary shift, and override, in discharge estimation. Based on WSC's records of ∼ 1800 active hydrometric stations for discharge monitoring, we evaluated sample rating curves and their correlation with stage and discharge measurement. We investigate under-ice measurements, ice condition periods and frequency, and extreme values in contrast to rating curves. Employing an independent workflow, we demonstrate that 69 % of existing records align with the rating curve and temporary shift concept, while the remaining 31 % follow alternative discharge estimation methods (override). Selected example stations illustrate discharge estimation methods over time. We also demonstrate the impact of override and temporary shifts on commonly assumed uncertainty models. Given the practices of override and temporary shifts within WSC, there is a need to explore innovative methods for discharge uncertainty estimation. We hope our research helps in the critical challenge of estimating and communicating uncertainty in published discharge values.

Scotty Creek, Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, has been the focus of hydrological research for nearly three decades. Over this period, field and modelling studies have generated new insights into the thermal and physical mechanisms governing the flux and storage of water in the wetland-dominated regions of discontinuous permafrost that characterises much of the Canadian and circumpolar subarctic. Research at Scotty Creek has coincided with a period of unprecedented climate warming, permafrost thaw, and resulting land cover transformations including the expansion of wetland areas and loss of forests. This paper (1) synthesises field and modelling studies at Scotty Creek, (2) highlights the key insights of these studies on the major water flux and storage processes operating within and between the major land cover types, and (3) provides insights into the rate and pattern of the permafrost-thaw-induced land cover change and how such changes will affect the hydrology and water resources of the study region.

We build on the existing Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to present a new dataset aimed at hydrologic studies across North America, with a particular focus on facilitating spatially distributed studies. The dataset includes basin outlines, streamflow observations, meteorological data and geospatial data for 1426 basins in the US and Canada. To facilitate a wide variety of studies, we provide the basin outlines at a lumped and semi-distributed resolution; streamflow observations at daily and hourly time steps; variables suitable for running a wide range of models obtained and derived from different meteorological datasets at daily (one dataset) and hourly (three datasets) time steps; and geospatial data and derived attributes from 11 different datasets that broadly cover climatic conditions, vegetation properties, land use and subsurface characteristics. Forcing data are provided at their original gridded resolution, as well as averaged at the basin and sub-basin level. Geospatial data are provided as maps per basin, as well as summarized as catchment attributes at the basin and sub-basin level with various statistics. Attributes are further complemented with statistics derived from the forcing data and streamflow and focus on quantifying the variability of natural processes and catchment characteristics in space and time. Our goal with this dataset is to build upon existing large-sample datasets and provide the means for a more detailed investigation of hydrologic behaviour across large geographical scales. In particular, we hope that this dataset provides others with the data needed to implement a wide range of modelling approaches and to investigate the impact of basin heterogeneity on hydrologic behaviour and similarity. The CAMELS-SPAT (Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-Sample SPATially distributed analysis) dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.20383/103.01306 (Knoben et al., 2025).

Robust large-domain predictions of water availability and threats require models that work well across different basins in the model domain. It is currently common to express a model's accuracy through aggregated efficiency scores such as the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), and these scores often form the basis to select among competing models. However, recent work has shown that such scores are subject to considerable sampling uncertainty: the exact selection of time steps used to calculate the scores can have large impacts on the scores obtained. Here we explicitly account for this sampling uncertainty to determine the number of models that are needed to simulate hydrologic processes across large spatial domains. Using a selection of 36 conceptual models and 559 basins, our results show that model equifinality, the fact that very different models can produce simulations with very similar accuracy, makes it very difficult to unambiguously select one model over another. If models were selected based on their validation KGE scores alone, almost every model would be selected as the best model in at least some basins. When sampling uncertainty is accounted for, this number drops to 4 models being needed to cover 95 % of investigated basins and 10 models being needed to cover all basins. We obtain similar conclusions for an objective function focused on low flows. These results suggest that, under the conditions typical of many current modelling studies, there is limited evidence that using a wide variety of different models leads to appreciable differences in simulation accuracy compared to using a smaller number of carefully chosen models.

Land models are increasingly used in terrestrial hydrology due to their process-oriented representation of water and energy fluxes. A priori specification of the grid size of the land models is typically defined based on the spatial resolution of forcing data, the modeling objectives, the available geospatial information, and computational resources. The variability of the inputs, soil types, vegetation covers, and forcing is masked or aggregated based on the a priori grid size. In this study, we propose an alternative vector-based implementation to directly configure a land model using unique combinations of land cover types, soil types, and other desired geographical features that have hydrological significance, such as elevation zone, slope, and aspect. The main contributions of this paper are to (1) implement the vector-based spatial configuration using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model; (2) illustrate how the spatial configuration of the model affects simulations of basin-average quantities (i.e., streamflow) as well as the spatial variability of internal processes (snow water equivalent, SWE, and evapotranspiration, ET); and (3) describe the work and challenges ahead to improve the spatial structure of land models. Our results show that a model configuration with a lower number of computational units, once calibrated, may have similar accuracy to model configurations with more computational units. However, the different calibrated parameter sets produce a range of, sometimes contradicting, internal states and fluxes. To better address the shortcomings of the current generation of land models, we encourage the land model community to adopt flexible spatial configurations to improve model representations of fluxes and states at the scale of interest.

Seasonal streamflow forecasts provide key information for decision-making in fields such as water supply management, hydropower generation, and irrigation scheduling. The predictability of streamflow on seasonal timescales relies heavily on initial hydrological conditions, such as the presence of snow and the availability of soil moisture. In high-latitude and high-altitude headwater basins in North America, snowmelt serves as the primary source of runoff generation. This study presents and evaluates a data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America (Canada and the USA). The workflow employs snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements as predictors and streamflow observations as predictands. Gap-filling of SWE datasets is accomplished using quantile mapping from neighboring SWE and precipitation stations, and principal component analysis is used to identify independent predictor components. These components are then utilized in a regression model to generate ensemble hindcasts of streamflow volumes for 75 nival basins with limited regulation from 1979 to 2021, encompassing diverse geographies and climates. Using a hindcast evaluation approach that is user-oriented provides key insights for snow-monitoring experts, forecasters, decision-makers, and workflow developers. The analysis presented here unveils a wide spectrum of predictability and offers a glimpse into potential future changes in predictability. Late-season snowpack emerges as a key factor in predicting spring and summer volumes, while high precipitation during the target period presents challenges to forecast skill and streamflow predictability. Notably, we can predict lower-than-normal and higher-than-normal streamflows during spring to early summer with lead times of up to 5 months in some basins. Our workflow is available on GitHub as a collection of Jupyter Notebooks, facilitating broader applications in cold regions and contributing to the ongoing advancement of methodologies.