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Real-world adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies is imperfect. The CRC-AIM microsimulation model was used to estimate the impact of imperfect adherence on the relative benefits and burdens of guideline-endorsed, stool-based screening strategies. Predicted outcomes of multi-target stool DNA (mt-sDNA), fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), and high-sensitivity guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests (HSgFOBT) were simulated for 40-year-olds free of diagnosed CRC. For robustness, imperfect adherence was incorporated in multiple ways and with extensive sensitivity analysis. Analysis 1 assumed adherence from 0%-100%, in 10% increments. Analysis 2 longitudinally applied real-world first-round differential adherence rates (base-case imperfect rates = 40% annual FIT vs 34% annual HSgFOBT vs 70% triennial mt-sDNA). Analysis 3 randomly assigned individuals to receive 1, 5, or 9 lifetime (9 = 100% adherence) mt-sDNA tests and 1, 5, or 9 to 26 (26 = 100% adherence) FIT tests. Outcomes are reported per 1000 individuals compared with no screening. Each screening strategy decreased CRC incidence and mortality versus no screening. In individuals screened between ages 50-75 and adherence ranging from 10%a-100%, the life-years gained (LYG) for triennial mt-sDNA ranged from 133.1-300.0, for annual FIT from 96.3-318.1, and for annual HSgFOBT from 99.8-320.6. At base-case imperfect adherence rates, mt-sDNA resulted in 19.1% more LYG versus FIT, 25.4% more LYG versus HSgFOBT, and generally had preferable efficiency ratios while offering the most LYG. Completion of at least 21 FIT tests is needed to reach approximately the same LYG achieved with 9 mt-sDNA tests. Adherence assumptions affect the conclusions of CRC screening microsimulations that are used to inform CRC screening guidelines. LYG from FIT and HSgFOBT are more sensitive to changes in adherence assumptions than mt-sDNA because they require more tests be completed for equivalent benefit. At imperfect adherence rates, mt-sDNA provides more LYG than FIT or HSgFOBT at an acceptable tradeoff in screening burden.

Objective Diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) made by standard diagnostic laboratory tests (SDLTs) has sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 76%, respectively. A multivariate assay panel (MAP) combining complement C4d activation products on erythrocytes and B cells with SDLTs yields a sensitivity and specificity of 80% and 86%, respectively, presumably enabling earlier SLE diagnosis at lower severity, with associated lower health care costs compared with SDLT diagnoses. We compared the payer budget impact of diagnosing SLE using MAP (incremental cost of$108) versus SDLTs. Methods We modeled a health plan of 1 million enrollees. SLE diagnosis among suspected patients was 9.2%. The MAP arm assumed 80%/20% of patients were tested with MAP/SDLTs, versus 100% tested with SDLTs in the SDLT arm. Prediagnosis direct costs were estimated from claims data, and postdiagnosis costs were obtained from the literature. Based on improved MAP performance, the assumed hazard ratio for diagnosis rate compared with SDLTs was 1.74 (71%, 87%, 90%, and 91% of patients who develop SLE are diagnosed in years 1 to 4 compared with 53%, 75%, 84%, and 88% of patients diagnosed with SDLTs). Results Total 4‐year pre‐ and postdiagnosis direct costs for patients with suspected SLE tested with MAP were $ 59 183 666 compared with$61 174 818 tested by SDLTs, with lower costs in the MAP arm due primarily to prediagnosis savings related to reduced hospital admissions. Conclusion Incorporating MAP into SLE diagnosis results in estimated 4‐year direct cost savings of $ 1 991 152 ($0.04 per member per month). By facilitating earlier diagnosis of SLE, MAP may enhance patient outcomes.

INTRODUCTION:Due to the rising incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) in individuals < 55 years (Siegel R, et al, JNCI, 2017), American Cancer Society (ACS) guidelines now recommend average-risk CRC screening beginning at age 45 years. The multi-target stool DNA (mt-sDNA) test, an FDA-approved screening test for average-risk individuals ≥50 years, is one ACS-recommended option for this age group. To minimize invasive testing in the younger age group, a screening test with high specificity is necessary to triage patients for diagnostic colonoscopy. To date, most endorsed CRC screening tests have not been rigorously studied in younger age groups. The objective of this study (the Act Now study [NCT03728348]) is to quantify the specificity of the mt-sDNA test in average risk individuals ages 45-49.METHODS:Act Now is an ongoing prospective, cross-sectional, multi-center study in subjects ages 45-49 at average risk for CRC. 942 subjects are targeted for enrollment and will complete a mt-sDNA test prior to undergoing a screening colonoscopy (blinded to mt-sDNA test results). Specificity for advanced colorectal neoplasia will be determined by comparing mt-sDNA test results to the most advanced finding on colonoscopy, based on procedure report and histopathological findings. Due to the low prevalence of CRC in this age group, mt-sDNA test sensitivity will be a secondary measure.RESULTS:To date, 480 subjects have completed a mt-sDNA test and screening colonoscopy. A total of 468 subjects (97.5%) have no first-degree relative (FDR) with CRC and 12 subjects (2.5%) have an FDR diagnosed at age ≥60 years. No subject has had a previous screening colonoscopy. The study population has a mean age of 47.4 years and is 48.8% female. Self-reported race includes 84.2% white, 11.5% black/African American, 3.3% Asian, and 1.0% other. Self-reported ethnicity includes 95.2% not Hispanic or Latino, 4.6% Hispanic or Latino, and 0.2% other. The mean BMI of subjects is 29.6 kg/m2. Most subjects (67.1%) have never smoked cigarettes, while 21.9% are former smokers and 11.0% are current smokers.CONCLUSION:The ongoing Act Now study will quantify the specificity of the mt-sDNA test in average risk individuals ages 45-49. Given concerns regarding the resources required to screen this age group for CRC, a noninvasive screening test with high specificity and sensitivity will help to optimize use of colonoscopy resources.

In 2006 an interdisciplinary team, coordinated by the Solstice Project,¹ produced an interactive computer graphics model that precisely replicates the astronomical functioning of an ancient calendrical site, the Sun Dagger, of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. The interactive, three-dimensional format of this digital model provides opportunities for extensive research of the structure’s light patterns, as well as its geometry and the process of its original development. At the Sun Dagger site, which Anna Sofaer rediscovered in 1977, three upright sandstone slabs cast precise light and shadow patterns on two spiral petroglyphs, recording the summer and winter solstices, the equinoxes, and the

Background: Microsimulation models of colorectal cancer (CRC) have helped inform national screening guidelines and health policy decision-making. However, detailed descriptions of particular underlying assumptions are not published, limiting access to robust platforms for exploratory analyses. We describe the development and validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) microsimulation model, a robust model built to facilitate collaborative simulation studies on disease progression and early detection through screening interventions. Design: We used the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) CRC models, specifically CRC-SPIN, as a foundation for CRC-AIM's formulas and parameters. In addition, we developed novel submodels and recalibrated various parameters to address gaps and discrepancies in publicly available information. Along with evaluating the natural history and screening detection outcomes from CRC-AIM, we determined the impact of using different life tables (cohort versus period) on natural history outcomes. Results: CRC-AIM demonstrated substantial cross-model validity when comparing multiple natural history and screening outputs and probability curves to those from CISNET models, particularly CRC-SPIN. Additionally, using period life tables, CRC-AIM's cumulative probability of developing CRC from ages 40 to 100 (7.1%) lies within the range of the CISNET models (6.7% to 7.2%). Using cohort tables, that probability increases to 8.0%. One notable difference is that, regardless of life table used, the cumulative probability of dying from CRC (3.2% for period; 3.8% for cohort) is slightly higher in CRC-AIM than the CISNET models (2.7% to 2.8%), due to CRC-AIM's different methodology for determining survival. Additionally, there is substantial overlap (e.g. 94-95% overall agreement for strategies on and off the efficient frontier for stool-based strategies) across multiple screening overlay outputs between CRC-AIM and the CISNET models, especially CRC-SPIN. Conclusions: We developed and validated a robust CRC microsimulation model, CRC-AIM, and demonstrate the influence of life table choice on downstream outputs. We further describe CRC-AIM's parameters and include complete component tables to enhance transparency and encourage collaboration. Footnotes * https://github.com/CRCAIM/CRC-AIM-Public

Real-world adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies is imperfect. The CRC-AIM microsimulation model was used to estimate the impact of imperfect adherence on the relative benefits and burdens of guideline-endorsed, stool-based screening strategies. Predicted outcomes of multi-target stool DNA (mt-sDNA), fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), and high-sensitivity guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests (HSgFOBT) were simulated for 40-year-olds free of diagnosed CRC. For robustness, imperfect adherence was incorporated in multiple ways and with extensive sensitivity analysis. Analysis 1 assumed adherence from 0%-100%, in 10% increments. Analysis 2 longitudinally applied real-world first-round differential adherence rates (base-case imperfect rates=40% annual FIT vs 34% annual HSgFOBT vs 70% triennial mt-sDNA). Analysis 3 randomly assigned individuals to receive 1, 5, or 9 lifetime (9=100% adherence) mt-sDNA tests and 1, 5, or 9 to 26 (26=100% adherence) FIT tests. Outcomes are reported per 1000 individuals compared with no screening. Each screening strategy decreased CRC incidence and mortality versus no screening. In individuals screened between ages 50-75 and adherence ranging from 10%-100%, the life-years gained (LYG) for triennial mt-sDNA ranged from 133.1-300.0, for annual FIT from 96.3-318.1, and for annual HSgFOBT from 99.8-320.6. At base-case imperfect adherence rates, mt-sDNA resulted in 19.1% more LYG versus FIT, 25.4% more LYG versus HSgFOBT, and generally had preferable efficiency ratios while offering the most LYG. Completion of at least 21 FIT tests is needed to reach approximately the same LYG achieved with 9 mt-sDNA tests. Adherence assumptions affect the conclusions of CRC screening microsimulations that are used to inform CRC screening guidelines. LYG from FIT and HSgFOBT are more sensitive to changes in adherence assumptions than mt-sDNA because they require more tests be completed for equivalent benefit. At imperfect adherence rates, mt-sDNA provides more LYG than FIT or HSgFOBT at an acceptable tradeoff in screening burden.

Health agencies call for the immediate mobilization of existing interventions in response to numerous child and family mental health concerns that have arisen as result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Answering this call, this pilot study describes the rapid, full-scale change from a primarily clinic-based Parent–Child Interaction Therapy (PCIT) model to a virtual service model (i.e., I-PCIT) in an academic and community-based program in Miami, Florida. First, we describe the virtual service training model our program developed and its implementation with 17 therapists (MAge = 32.35, 88.2% female, 47.1% Hispanic) to enable our clinic to shift from providing virtual services to a small portion of the families served (29.1%) to all of the families served. Second, we examine the effect of I-PCIT on child and caregiver outcomes during the 2-month stay-at-home period between March 16, 2020, and May 16, 2020, in 86 families (MChildAge = 4.75, 71% Hispanic). Due to the rapid nature of the current study, all active participants were transferred to virtual services, and therefore there was no comparison or control group, and outcomes represent the most recently available scores and not treatment completion. Results reveal that I-PCIT reduced child externalizing and internalizing problems and caregiver stress, and increased parenting skills and child compliance with medium to large effects even in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, the study examined components of our virtual service training model associated with the greatest improvements in child and caregiver outcomes. Preliminary findings revealed that locally and collaboratively developed strategies (e.g., online communities of practice, training videos and guides) had the strongest association with child and caregiver outcomes. Implications for virtual service delivery, implementation, and practice in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic are discussed.