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Polygenic risk prediction is a widely investigated topic because of its promising clinical applications. Genetic variants in functional regions of the genome are enriched for complex trait heritability. Here, we introduce a method for polygenic prediction, LDpred-funct, that leverages trait-specific functional priors to increase prediction accuracy. We fit priors using the recently developed baseline-LD model, including coding, conserved, regulatory, and LD-related annotations. We analytically estimate posterior mean causal effect sizes and then use cross-validation to regularize these estimates, improving prediction accuracy for sparse architectures. We applied LDpred-funct to predict 21 highly heritable traits in the UK Biobank (avg N = 373 K as training data). LDpred-funct attained a +4.6% relative improvement in average prediction accuracy (avg prediction R 2 = 0.144; highest R 2 = 0.413 for height) compared to SBayesR (the best method that does not incorporate functional information). For height, meta-analyzing training data from UK Biobank and 23andMe cohorts ( N = 1107 K) increased prediction R 2 to 0.431. Our results show that incorporating functional priors improves polygenic prediction accuracy, consistent with the functional architecture of complex traits. Incorporating functional information has shown promise for improving polygenic risk prediction of complex traits. Here, the authors describe polygenic prediction method LDpred-funct, and demonstrate its utility across 21 heritable traits in the UK Biobank.

We trained and validated risk prediction models for the three major types of skin cancer— basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and melanoma—on a cross-sectional and longitudinal dataset of 210,000 consented research participants who responded to an online survey covering personal and family history of skin cancer, skin susceptibility, and UV exposure. We developed a primary disease risk score (DRS) that combined all 32 identified genetic and non-genetic risk factors. Top percentile DRS was associated with an up to 13-fold increase (odds ratio per standard deviation increase >2.5) in the risk of developing skin cancer relative to the middle DRS percentile. To derive lifetime risk trajectories for the three skin cancers, we developed a second and age independent disease score, called DRSA. Using incident cases, we demonstrated that DRSA could be used in early detection programs for identifying high risk asymptotic individuals, and predicting when they are likely to develop skin cancer. High DRSA scores were not only associated with earlier disease diagnosis (by up to 14 years), but also with more severe and recurrent forms of skin cancer. Predicting who will develop skin cancer is difficult. Here, the authors from 23andMe developed a polygenic risk score for skin cancer based on a questionnaire and genetic data from more than 210,000 individuals and suggest that the score could be used in early screening programmes.

The “antidepressant efficacy” survey (AES) was deployed to > 50,000 23andMe, Inc. research participants to investigate the genetic basis of treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and non-treatment-resistant depression (NTRD). Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were performed, including TRD vs. NTRD, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) responders vs. non-responders, serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor (SNRI) responders vs. non-responders, and norepinephrine-dopamine reuptake inhibitor responders vs. non-responders. Only the SSRI association reached the genome-wide significance threshold ( p  < 5 × 10 −8 ): one genomic region in RNF219-AS1 (SNP rs4884091, p  = 2.42 × 10 −8 , OR = 1.21); this association was also observed in the meta-analysis (13,130 responders vs. 6,610 non-responders) of AES and an earlier “antidepressant efficacy and side effects” survey (AESES) cohort. Meta-analysis for SNRI response phenotype derived from AES and AESES (4030 responders vs. 3049 non-responders) identified another genomic region (lead SNP rs4955665, p  = 1.62 × 10 −9 , OR = 1.25) in an intronic region of MECOM passing the genome-wide significance threshold. Meta-analysis for the TRD phenotype (31,068 NTRD vs 5,714 TRD) identified one additional genomic region (lead SNP rs150245813, p  = 8.07 × 10 −9 , OR = 0.80) in 10p11.1 passing the genome-wide significance threshold. A stronger association for rs150245813 was observed in current study ( p  = 7.35 × 10 −7 , OR = 0.79) than the previous study ( p  = 1.40 × 10 −3 , OR = 0.81), and for rs4955665, a stronger association in previous study ( p  = 1.21 × 10 −6 , OR = 1.27) than the current study ( p  = 2.64 × 10 −4 , OR = 1.21). In total, three novel loci associated with SSRI or SNRI (responders vs. non-responders), and NTRD vs TRD were identified; gene level association and gene set enrichment analyses implicate enrichment of genes involved in immune process.

Hypertension remains a leading cause of cardiovascular and kidney diseases. Failure to control blood pressure with ≥ 3 medications or control requiring ≥ 4 medications is classified as resistant hypertension (rHTN) and new therapies are needed to reduce the resulting increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Here, we report genetic evidence that relaxin family peptide receptor 2 (RXFP2) is associated with rHTN in men, but not in women. This study shows that adrenal gland gene expression of RXFP2 is increased in men with hypertension and the RXFP2 natural ligand, INSL3, increases adrenal steroidogenesis and corticosteroid secretion in human adrenal cells. To address the hypothesis that RXFP2 activation is an important mechanism in rHTN, we discovered and characterized small molecule and monoclonal antibody (mAb) blockers of RXFP2. The novel chemical entities and mAbs show potent, selective inhibition of RXFP2 and reduce aldosterone and cortisol synthesis and release. The RXFP2 mAbs have suitable rat pharmacokinetic profiles to evaluate the role of RXFP2 in the development and maintenance of rHTN. Overall, we identified RXFP2 activity as a potential new mechanism in rHTN and discovered RXFP2 antagonists for the future interrogation of RXFP2 in cardiovascular and renal diseases.

Neuroticism is an important risk factor for psychiatric traits, including depression 1 , anxiety 2 , 3 , and schizophrenia 4 – 6 . At the time of analysis, previous genome-wide association studies 7 – 12 (GWAS) reported 16 genomic loci associated to neuroticism 10 – 12 . Here we conducted a large GWAS meta-analysis ( n  = 449,484) of neuroticism and identified 136 independent genome-wide significant loci (124 new at the time of analysis), which implicate 599 genes. Functional follow-up analyses showed enrichment in several brain regions and involvement of specific cell types, including dopaminergic neuroblasts ( P  = 3.49 × 10 −8 ), medium spiny neurons ( P  = 4.23 × 10 −8 ), and serotonergic neurons ( P  = 1.37 × 10 −7 ). Gene set analyses implicated three specific pathways: neurogenesis ( P  = 4.43 × 10 −9 ), behavioral response to cocaine processes ( P  = 1.84 × 10 −7 ), and axon part ( P  = 5.26 × 10 −8 ). We show that neuroticism’s genetic signal partly originates in two genetically distinguishable subclusters 13 (‘depressed affect’ and ‘worry’), suggesting distinct causal mechanisms for subtypes of individuals. Mendelian randomization analysis showed unidirectional and bidirectional effects between neuroticism and multiple psychiatric traits. These results enhance neurobiological understanding of neuroticism and provide specific leads for functional follow-up experiments. A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for neuroticism identifies novel loci, pathways and potential drug targets. Further analysis implicates specific brain regions and evaluates genetic overlap with other neuropsychiatric traits.

Depression is a polygenic trait that causes extensive periods of disability. Previous genetic studies have identified common risk variants which have progressively increased in number with increasing sample sizes of the respective studies. Here, we conduct a genome-wide association study in 322,580 UK Biobank participants for three depression-related phenotypes: broad depression, probable major depressive disorder (MDD), and International Classification of Diseases (ICD, version 9 or 10)-coded MDD. We identify 17 independent loci that are significantly associated ( P  < 5 × 10 −8 ) across the three phenotypes. The direction of effect of these loci is consistently replicated in an independent sample, with 14 loci likely representing novel findings. Gene sets are enriched in excitatory neurotransmission, mechanosensory behaviour, post synapse, neuron spine and dendrite functions. Our findings suggest that broad depression is the most tractable UK Biobank phenotype for discovering genes and gene sets that further our understanding of the biological pathways underlying depression. The UK Biobank provides data for three depression-related phenotypes. Here, Howard et al. perform a genome-association study for broad depression, probable major depressive disorder (MDD) and hospital record-coded MDD in up to 322,580 UK Biobank participants which highlights excitatory synaptic pathways.

Daytime napping is a common, heritable behavior, but its genetic basis and causal relationship with cardiometabolic health remain unclear. Here, we perform a genome-wide association study of self-reported daytime napping in the UK Biobank ( n  = 452,633) and identify 123 loci of which 61 replicate in the 23andMe research cohort ( n  = 541,333). Findings include missense variants in established drug targets for sleep disorders ( HCRTR1 , HCRTR2 ), genes with roles in arousal ( TRPC6 , PNOC ), and genes suggesting an obesity-hypersomnolence pathway ( PNOC, PATJ ). Association signals are concordant with accelerometer-measured daytime inactivity duration and 33 loci colocalize with loci for other sleep phenotypes. Cluster analysis identifies three distinct clusters of nap-promoting mechanisms with heterogeneous associations with cardiometabolic outcomes. Mendelian randomization shows potential causal links between more frequent daytime napping and higher blood pressure and waist circumference. The genetic basis of daytime napping and the directional effect of daytime napping on cardiometabolic health are unknown. Here, the authors perform a genome-wide association study on self-reported daytime napping in the UK Biobank and Mendelian randomization to explore causal associations.

Twin and family studies have established the contribution of genetic factors to variation in metabolic, hematologic and immunological parameters. The majority of these studies analyzed single or combined traits into pre-defined syndromes. In the present study, we explore an alternative multivariate approach in which a broad range of metabolic, hematologic, and immunological traits are analyzed simultaneously to determine the resemblance of monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs, twin-spouse pairs and unrelated, non-cohabiting individuals. A total of 517 participants from the Netherlands Twin Register, including 210 MZ twin pairs and 64 twin-spouse pairs, took part in the study. Data were collected on body composition, blood pressure, heart rate, and multiple biomarkers assessed in fasting blood samples, including lipid levels, glucose, insulin, liver enzymes, hematological measurements and cytokine levels. For all 51 measured traits, pair-wise Pearson correlations, correcting for family relatedness, were calculated across all the individuals in the cohort. Hierarchical clustering techniques were applied to group the measured traits into sub-clusters based on similarity. Sub-clusters were observed among metabolic traits and among inflammatory markers. We defined a phenotypic profile as the collection of all the traits measured for a given individual. Average within-pair similarity of phenotypic profiles was determined for the groups of MZ twin pairs, spouse pairs and pairs of unrelated individuals. The average similarity across the full phenotypic profile was higher for MZ twin pairs than for spouse pairs, and lowest for pairs of unrelated individuals. Cohabiting MZ twins were more similar in their phenotypic profile compared to MZ twins who no longer lived together. The correspondence in the phenotypic profile is therefore determined to a large degree by familial, mostly genetic, factors, while household factors contribute to a lesser degree to profile similarity.

Genetic association results are often interpreted with the assumption that study participation does not affect downstream analyses. Understanding the genetic basis of participation bias is challenging since it requires the genotypes of unseen individuals. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate comparative biases by performing a genome-wide association study contrasting one subgroup versus another. For example, we showed that sex exhibits artifactual autosomal heritability in the presence of sex-differential participation bias. By performing a genome-wide association study of sex in approximately 3.3 million males and females, we identified over 158 autosomal loci spuriously associated with sex and highlighted complex traits underpinning differences in study participation between the sexes. For example, the body mass index–increasing allele at FTO was observed at higher frequency in males compared to females (odds ratio = 1.02, P  = 4.4 × 10 − 36 ). Finally, we demonstrated how these biases can potentially lead to incorrect inferences in downstream analyses and propose a conceptual framework for addressing such biases. Our findings highlight a new challenge that genetic studies may face as sample sizes continue to grow. Genetic analyses identify widespread sex-differential participation bias in population-based studies and show how this bias can lead to incorrect inferences. These findings highlight new challenges for association studies as sample sizes continue to grow.