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Background The impact of delayed discharge on patients, health‐care staff and hospital costs has been incompletely characterized. Aim To systematically review experiences of delay from the perspectives of patients, health professionals and hospitals, and its impact on patients’ outcomes and costs. Methods Four of the main biomedical databases were searched for the period 2000‐2016 (February). Quantitative, qualitative and health economic studies conducted in OECD countries were included. Results Thirty‐seven papers reporting data on 35 studies were identified: 10 quantitative, 8 qualitative and 19 exploring costs. Seven of ten quantitative studies were at moderate/low methodological quality; 6 qualitative studies were deemed reliable; and the 19 studies on costs were of moderate quality. Delayed discharge was associated with mortality, infections, depression, reductions in patients’ mobility and their daily activities. The qualitative studies highlighted the pressure to reduce discharge delays on staff stress and interprofessional relationships, with implications for patient care and well‐being. Extra bed‐days could account for up to 30.7% of total costs and cause cancellations of elective operations, treatment delay and repercussions for subsequent services, especially for elderly patients. Conclusions The poor quality of the majority of the research means that implications for practice should be cautiously made. However, the results suggest that the adverse effects of delayed discharge are both direct (through increased opportunities for patients to acquire avoidable ill health) and indirect, secondary to the pressures placed on staff. These findings provide impetus to take a more holistic perspective to addressing delayed discharge.

Background The identification of patients with advanced liver fibrosis secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains challenging. Using non-invasive liver fibrosis tests (NILT) in primary care may permit earlier detection of patients with clinically significant disease for specialist review, and reduce unnecessary referral of patients with mild disease. We constructed an analytical model to assess the clinical and cost differentials of such strategies. Methods A probabilistic decisional model simulated a cohort of 1000 NAFLD patients over 1 year from a healthcare payer perspective. Simulations compared standard care (SC) (scenario 1) to: Scenario 2: FIB-4 for all patients followed by Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test for patients with indeterminate FIB-4 results; Scenario 3: FIB-4 followed by fibroscan for indeterminate FIB-4; Scenario 4: ELF alone; and Scenario 5: fibroscan alone. Model estimates were derived from the published literature. The primary outcome was cost per case of advanced fibrosis detected. Results Introduction of NILT increased detection of advanced fibrosis over 1 year by 114, 118, 129 and 137% compared to SC in scenarios 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively with reduction in unnecessary referrals by 85, 78, 71 and 42% respectively. The cost per case of advanced fibrosis (METAVIR ≥F3) detected was £25,543, £8932, £9083, £9487 and £10,351 in scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. Total budget spend was reduced by 25.2, 22.7, 15.1 and 4.0% in Scenarios 2, 3, 4 and 5 compared to £670 K at baseline. Conclusion Our analyses suggest that the use of NILT in primary care can increases early detection of advanced liver fibrosis and reduce unnecessary referral of patients with mild disease and is cost efficient. Adopting a two-tier approach improves resource utilization.

Bladder cancer is the tenth most common cancer in the United Kingdom. Currently, open radical cystectomy (ORC) is the gold standard. Due to the risk of complications and a 2.3-8% mortality rate1, there is growing interest in the use of robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC). The aim of this study is to perform a cost-utility analysis, comparing RARC to ORC for bladder cancer patients from the perspective of the National Health Service England. A three-stage decision tree: surgery, post-surgery transfusions and complications, in a 90-day time horizon, was produced to simulate possible pathways of patients. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated based on data derived from current literature. Multiple univariate sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate influences of varying costs of RARC and ORC on the ICER. The ICER for RARC compared to ORC resulted in £25,536/QALY. At the lower threshold of £20,000/QALY, RARC resulted in a negative NMB (£-4,843.32) and at the upper threshold of £30,000/QALY, a positive NMB (£624.61) compared to ORC. Threshold analysis showed that the intervention costs of £13,497 and £14,403 are met at the lower and upper threshold respectively. The univariate sensitivity analysis showed that the intervention costs of RARC or ORC, and the probabilities of complications, had the greatest impact on the ICER. As the resultant ICER did not fall below the £20,000/QALY threshold, our study did not provide a definitive recommendation for RARC for bladder cancer. Negative values for the NMB at the lower threshold indicated the intervention was not feasible from a cost perspective. At the upper threshold of £30,000/QALY, this situation was reversed. The intervention became cost-effective. Therefore, further research is needed to justify the intervention.

To determine the cost-utility of a multi-professional simulation training programme for obstetric emergencies-Practical Obstetric Multi-Professional Training (PROMPT)-with a particular focus on its impact on permanent obstetric brachial plexus injuries (OBPIs). A model-based cost-utility analysis. Maternity units in England. Simulated cohorts of individuals affected by permanent OBPIs. A decision tree model was developed to estimate the cost-utility of adopting annual, PROMPT training (scenario 1a) or standalone shoulder dystocia training (scenario 1b) in all maternity units in England compared to current practice, where only a proportion of English units use the training programme (scenario 2). The time horizon was 30 years and the analysis was conducted from an English National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services perspective. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to account for uncertainties in the model parameters. Outcomes for the entire simulated period included the following: total costs for PROMPT or shoulder dystocia training (including costs of OBPIs), number of OBPIs averted, number of affected adult/parental/dyadic quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and the incremental cost per QALY gained. Nationwide PROMPT or shoulder dystocia training conferred significant savings (in excess of £1 billion ($1.5 billion)) compared to current practice, resulting in cost-savings of at least £1 million ($1.5 million) per any type of QALY gained. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated similar findings. In this model, national implementation of multi-professional simulation training for obstetric emergencies (or standalone shoulder dystocia training) in England appeared to both be cost-saving when evaluating their impact on permanent OBPIs.

Increasing evidence suggests that some immunotherapy dosing regimens for patients with advanced cancer could result in overtreatment. Given the high costs of these agents, and important implications for quality of life and toxicity, new approaches are needed to identify and reduce unnecessary treatment. Conventional two-arm non-inferiority designs are inefficient in this context because they require large numbers of patients to explore a single alternative to the standard of care. Here, we discuss the potential problem of overtreatment with anti-PD-1 directed agents in general and introduce REFINE-Lung (NCT05085028), a UK multicentre phase 3 study of reduced frequency pembrolizumab in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. REFINE-Lung uses a novel multi-arm multi-stage response over continuous interventions (MAMS-ROCI) design to determine the optimal dose frequency of pembrolizumab. Along with a similarly designed basket study of patients with renal cancer and melanoma, REFINE-Lung and the MAMS-ROCI design could contribute to practice-changing advances in patient care and form a template for future immunotherapy optimisation studies across cancer types and indications. This new trial design is applicable to many new or existing agents for which optimisation of dose, frequency, or duration of therapy is desirable.

ObjectivesTo assess the feasibility of delivering the swallowing prehabilitation intervention known as Swallowing Intervention Package: Self-Monitoring, Assessment and Rehabilitation Training (SIP SMART) within the National Health Service (NHS) head and neck cancer care pathway.DesignTwo-arm cluster-randomised pilot trial: SIP SMART2 trial.Setting and participantsAdults newly diagnosed with stage II–IV head and neck cancer receiving curative treatment within a multidisciplinary team who agree to participate.InterventionsSix hospitals were randomised. Trained clinicians at the intervention sites delivered the manualised SIP SMART intervention, while standard care was provided at care as usual (CAU) sites. The intervention included two 45-minute consultations incorporating an X-ray swallow assessment, tailored exercises/advice and specific behaviour change strategies while CAU involved a single consultation of information giving and provision of a generic exercise sheet.OutcomesStudy outcomes related to feasibility of the cluster-randomised design, recruitment of both sites and patients and completeness of clinical and health economic data collected at baseline, 4 weeks, 12 weeks and 24 weeks after treatment.Results12 hospitals expressed interest and six were randomised (50%) and provided data to the point of study completion. Patient recruitment across all sites (n=76) reached the target, although two sites fell short of their individual targets. The proportion of people with HNC recruited versus those eligible for each arm was 39% (95% CI 29 to 49) for SIP SMART group and 55% (95% CI 43 to 66) for CAU. The end point data at 24 weeks were completed for 50% (95% CI 33 to 67) for SIP SMART and 78% (95% CI 62 to 89) for CAU. Adherence to the intervention was above 50% at all time points. No harms related to the intervention were reported.ConclusionsIt is feasible to deliver the SIP SMART intervention embedded within the NHS cancer care pathway using a cluster-randomised design. A future trial will be optimised for efficiency in set-up and follow-up data collection based on these findings and learnings from the accompanying process evaluation study.Trial registration numberISRCTN12377415.

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a leading public health problem, with substantial burden and economic implications for healthcare systems, mainly due to renal replacement treatment (RRT) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The aim of this study is to develop a multistate predictive model to estimate the future burden of CKD in Chile, given the high and rising RRT rates, population ageing, and prevalence of comorbidities contributing to CKD. A dynamic stock and flow model was developed to simulate CKD progression in the Chilean population aged 40 years and older, up to the year 2041, adopting the perspective of the Chilean public healthcare system. The model included six states replicating progression of CKD, which was assumed in 1-year cycles and was categorised as slow, medium or fast progression, based on the underlying conditions. We simulated two different treatment scenarios. Only direct costs of treatment were included, and a 3% per year discount rate was applied after the first year. We calibrated the model based on international evidence; the exploration of uncertainty (95% credibility intervals) was undertaken with probabilistic sensitivity analysis. By the year 2041, there is an expected increase in cases of CKD stages 3a to ESKD, ceteris paribus, from 442,265 (95% UI 441,808-442,722) in 2021 to 735,513 (734,455-736,570) individuals. Direct costs of CKD stages 3a to ESKD would rise from 322.4M GBP (321.7-323.1) in 2021 to 1,038.6M GBP (1,035.5-1,041.8) in 2041. A reduction in the progression rates of the disease by the inclusion of SGLT2 inhibitors and pre-dialysis treatment would decrease the number of individuals worsening to stages 5 and ESKD, thus reducing the total costs of CKD by 214.6M GBP in 2041 to 824.0M GBP (822.7-825.3). This model can be a useful tool for healthcare planning, with development of preventive or treatment plans to reduce and delay the progression of the disease and thus the anticipated increase in the healthcare costs of CKD.

National Health Service (NHS) 111 helpline was set up to improve access to urgent care in England, efficiency and cost-effectiveness of first-contact health services. Following trusted, authoritative advice is crucial for improved clinical outcomes. We examine patient and call-related characteristics associated with compliance with advice given in NHS 111 calls. The importance of health interactions that are not face-to-face has recently been highlighted by COVID-19 pandemic. In this retrospective cohort study, NHS 111 call records were linked to urgent and emergency care services data. We analysed data of 3,864,362 calls made between October 2013 and September 2017 relating to 1,964,726 callers across London. A multiple logistic regression was used to investigate associations between compliance with advice given and patient and call characteristics. Caller’s action is ‘compliant with advice given if first subsequent service interaction following contact with NHS 111 is consistent with advice given. We found that most calls were made by women (58%), adults aged 30–59 years (33%) and people in the white ethnic category (36%). The most common advice was for caller to contact their General Practitioner (GP) or other local services (18.2%) with varying times scales. Overall, callers followed advice given in 49% of calls. Compliance with triage advice was more likely in calls for children aged <16 years, women, those from Asian/Asian British ethnicity, and calls made out of hours. The highest compliance was among callers advised to self-care without the need to contact any other healthcare service. This is one of the largest studies to describe pathway adherence following telephone advice and associated clinical and demographic features. These results could inform attempts to improve caller compliance with advice given by NHS 111, and as the NHS moves to more hybrid way of working, the lessons from this study are key to the development of remote healthcare services going forward.

ObjectivesThis study estimates the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among Chilean adults and examines its associations with sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviours and comorbidities.DesignAnalysis of cross-sectional data from the two most recent large nationally representative Chilean Health Surveys (Encuesta Nacional de Salud, ENS) 2009–2010 and 2016–2017.ParticipantsAdults aged 18+ years with serum creatine data (ENS 2009–2010: n=4583; ENS 2016–2017: n=5084).Primary and secondary outcome measuresReduced kidney function (CKD stages 3a–5) based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) was the primary outcome measure. Using the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR ≥30 mg/g), increased albuminuria was ascertained among adults aged 40+ years with diabetes and/or hypertension. Both outcomes were analysed using logistic regression with results summarised using OR. CKD prevalence (stages 1–5) among adults aged 40+ years was estimated including participants with an eGFR of >60 mL/min/1.73 m2 but with increased albuminuria (stages 1–2).ResultsOverall, 3.2% (95% CI: 2.4% to 3.8%) of adults aged 18+ in ENS 2016–2017 had reduced kidney function. After full adjustment, participants with hypertension (OR: 2.37; 95% CI: 1.19 to 4.74) and those with diabetes (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.66) had significantly higher odds of reduced kidney function. In ENS 2016–2017, 15.5% (13.5% to 17.8%) of adults aged 40+ years with diabetes and/or hypertension had increased albuminuria. Being obese versus normal-weight (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.08 to 2.54) and having both diabetes and hypertension versus having diabetes alone (OR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.34 to 3.95) were significantly associated with higher odds of increased albuminuria in fully-adjusted analyses. At least 15.4% of adults aged 40+ years in ENS 2016–2017 had CKD (stages 1–5), including the 9.6% of adults at CKD stages 1–2.ConclusionsPrevention strategies and Chilean guidelines should consider the high percentage of adults aged 40 years and older at CKD stages 1–2.

The extent to which interventions are perceived as acceptable to users impacts engagement and efficacy. In this study, we evaluated the acceptability of (1) the smartphone app Drink Less (intervention) and (2) the National Health Service (NHS) alcohol advice web page (usual digital care and comparator) among adult drinkers in the United Kingdom participating in a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of the Drink Less app. A subsample of 26 increasing- and higher-risk drinkers (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score≥8) assigned to the intervention group (Drink Less; n=14, 54%; female: n=10, 71%; age: 22-72 years; White: n=9, 64%) or usual digital care group (NHS alcohol advice web page; n=12, 46%; female: n=5, 42%; age: 23-68 years: White: n=9, 75%) took part in semistructured interviews. The interview questions were mapped on to the 7 facets of acceptability according to the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability: affective attitude, burden, perceived effectiveness, ethicality, intervention coherence, opportunity costs, and self-efficacy. Alongside these constructs, we also included a question on perceived personal relevance, which previous research has linked to acceptability and engagement. Framework and thematic analysis of data was undertaken. The Drink Less app was perceived as being ethical, easy, user-friendly, and effective for the period the app was used. Participants reported particularly liking the tracking and feedback sections of the app, which they reported increased personal relevance and which resulted in positive affect when achieving their goals. They reported no opportunity cost. Factors such as negative affect when not meeting goals and boredom led to disengagement in the longer term for some participants. The NHS alcohol advice web page was rated as being easy and user-friendly with no opportunity costs. However, the information presented was not perceived as being personally relevant or effective in changing drinking behavior. Most participants reported neutral or negative affect, most participants thought the alcohol advice web page was accessible, and some participants reported ethical concerns around the availability of suggested resources. Some participants reported that it had acted as a starting point or a signpost to other resources. Participants in both groups discussed motivation to change and contextual factors such as COVID-19 lockdowns, which influenced their perceived self-efficacy regardless of their assigned intervention. Drink Less appears to be an acceptable digital intervention among the recruited sample. The NHS alcohol advice web page was generally considered unacceptable as a stand-alone intervention among the recruited sample, although it may signpost and help people access other resources and interventions.