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Taking the 2008 financial crisis as his jumping off point, Alex Pollock deftly illustrates how private firms and governments alike have failed to understand the shifting risks that financial systems create. With candor, clarity, and wit, he uncovers the persistent uncertainties inherent in banking, central banking, and economics. -- Provided by publisher.

Expanding protected areas for ecological conservation by just 5% has the potential to markedly increase terrestrial biodiversity protection. Multifaceted biodiversity gains Plans to expand protected areas around the globe could vastly increase the protection of species diversity. But whether or not the benefits extend to other facets of biodiversity is less clear. Laura Pollock et al . assess the extent to which the species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial mammals and birds is covered by existing protected areas and the benefits that expansion could bring. They find large gaps in the coverage of each facet of diversity, but show that this could be remedied by a slight expansion of protected areas. They predict that expanding these areas by just 5% has the potential to triple the protected range sizes of species, phylogenetic or functional units. The findings suggest that large gains in terrestrial biodiversity protection are possible with a relatively moderate expansion of protected areas. Different facets of biodiversity other than species numbers are increasingly appreciated as critical for maintaining the function of ecosystems and their services to humans 1 , 2 . While new international policy and assessment processes such as the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) recognize the importance of an increasingly global, quantitative and comprehensive approach to biodiversity protection, most insights are still focused on a single facet of biodiversity—species 3 . Here we broaden the focus and provide an evaluation of how much of the world’s species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of birds and mammals is currently protected and the scope for improvement. We show that the large existing gaps in the coverage for each facet of diversity could be remedied by a slight expansion of protected areas: an additional 5% of the land has the potential to more than triple the protected range of species or phylogenetic or functional units. Further, the same areas are often priorities for multiple diversity facets and for both taxa. However, we find that the choice of conservation strategy has a fundamental effect on outcomes. It is more difficult (that is, requires more land) to maximize basic representation of the global biodiversity pool than to maximize local diversity. Overall, species and phylogenetic priorities are more similar to each other than they are to functional priorities, and priorities for the different bird biodiversity facets are more similar than those of mammals. Our work shows that large gains in biodiversity protection are possible, while also highlighting the need to explicitly link desired conservation objectives and biodiversity metrics. We provide a framework and quantitative tools to advance these goals for multi-faceted biodiversity conservation.

Whether species interactions influence species response to environment and species ranges has always been a central question in ecology. Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) simultaneously model the species–environment relationships of multiple species and the residual correlation between these species. These residual correlations are assumed to depict whether species co-occur less or more often than expected by the modelled species–environment relationships, which could ultimately be attributed to species interactions, or hidden environmental information. Here, we propose to specifically test the capacity of JSDMs to detect species interactions from co-occurrence data, at different scales of data aggregation. Using a recently published point-process model, we simulated equilibrium co-occurrence patterns of species pairs by varying the strength and type of interactions (e.g. competition, predator–prey, mutualism) as well as the prevalence of the interacting species in homogeneous environments (assuming the environment does not influence the species responses and co-occurrence). Then, we fitted JSDMs without environmental predictors, and compared the estimated residual correlations against the known interaction coefficients. JSDMs detected competition and mutualism well, but failed with predator–prey interactions. For the latter, JSDMs predicted both negative and positive residual correlations for these kinds of interactions, depending on the prevalence of the interacting species. Interestingly, the estimated residual correlation was strongly influenced by species’ prevalence and can thus not be translated to interaction strength. At increasingly coarser data resolution, the signals of negative and positive interactions became indiscernible by JSDMs, but – reassuringly – were rarely confounded. The underlying point-process model simulates the consequences rather than the mechanisms of interspecific interactions, and thus is better at corroborating rather than discrediting JSDMs. Nevertheless, our simple theoretical exercise pinpoints important limitations of JSDMs. In conclusion, we caution against interpreting residual correlations from JSDMs as interaction strength and against comparing these across different species and communities.

Global commitments to protect 30% of land by 2030 present an opportunity to combat the biodiversity crisis, but reducing extinction risk will depend on where countries expand protection. Here, we explore a range of 30×30 conservation scenarios that vary what dimension of biodiversity is prioritized (taxonomic groups, species-at-risk, biodiversity facets) and how protection is coordinated (transnational, national, or regional approaches) to test which decisions influence our ability to capture biodiversity in spatial planning. Using Canada as a model nation, we evaluate how well each scenario captures biodiversity using scalable indicators while accounting for climate change, data bias, and uncertainty. We find that only 15% of all terrestrial vertebrates, plants, and butterflies (representing only 6.6% of species-at-risk) are adequately represented in existing protected land. However, a nationally coordinated approach to 30×30 could protect 65% of all species representing 40% of all species-at-risk. How protection is coordinated has the largest impact, with regional approaches protecting up to 38% fewer species and 65% fewer species-at-risk, while the choice of biodiversity incurs much smaller trade-offs. These results demonstrate the potential of 30×30 while highlighting the critical importance of biodiversity-informed national strategies. Expanding protected areas to meet conservation goals requires careful consideration of potential trade-offs. Here, by simulating conservation scenarios for Canada, the authors report that 30×30 outcomes for biodiversity depend more on how protection is coordinated at different spatial scales than on which biodiversity metrics are prioritized.

Background: In 2008, a national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programme began in Scotland for 12–13 year old females with a three-year catch-up campaign for those under the age of 18. Since 2008, three-dose uptake of bivalent vaccine in the routine cohort aged 12–13 has exceeded 90% annually, while in the catch-up cohort overall uptake is 66%. Methods: To monitor the impact of HPV immunisation, a programme of national surveillance was established (pre and post introduction) which included yearly sampling and HPV genotyping of women attending for cervical screening at age 20. By linking individual vaccination, screening and HPV testing records, we aim to determine the impact of the immunisation programme on circulating type-specific HPV infection particularly for four outcomes: (i) the vaccine types HPV 16 or 18 (ii) types considered to be associated with cross-protection: HPV 31, 33 or 45; (iii) all other high-risk types and (iv) any HPV. Results: From a total of 4679 samples tested, we demonstrate that three doses ( n =1100) of bivalent vaccine are associated with a significant reduction in prevalence of HPV 16 and 18 from 29.8% (95% confidence interval 28.3, 31.3%) to 13.6% (95% confidence interval 11.7, 15.8%). The data also suggest cross-protection against HPV 31, 33 and 45. HPV 51 and 56 emerged as the most prevalent (10.5% and 9.6%, respectively) non-vaccine high-risk types in those vaccinated, but at lower rates than HPV 16 (25.9%) in those unvaccinated. Conclusions: This data demonstrate the positive impact of bivalent vaccination on the prevalence of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33 and 45 in the target population and is encouraging for countries which have achieved high-vaccine uptake.

Background Suicide is the second leading cause of death among adolescents worldwide, and is a major driver of health inequity among Indigenous people in high-income countries. However, little is known about the burden of suicide among Indigenous populations in low- and middle-income nations, and no synthesis of the global data is currently available. Our objective was to examine the global incidence of suicide among Indigenous peoples and assess disparities through comparisons with non-Indigenous populations. Methods We conducted a systematic review of suicide rates among Indigenous peoples worldwide and assessed disparities between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations. We performed text word and Medical Subject Headings searches in PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health (CINAHL), PsycINFO, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), and Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO) for observational studies in any language, indexed from database inception until June 1, 2017. Eligible studies examined crude or standardized suicide rates in Indigenous populations at national, regional, or local levels, and examined rate ratios for comparisons to non-Indigenous populations. Results The search identified 13,736 papers and we included 99. Eligible studies examined suicide rates among Indigenous peoples in 30 countries and territories, though the majority focused on populations in high-income nations. Results showed that suicide rates are elevated in many Indigenous populations worldwide, though rate variation is common, and suicide incidence ranges from 0 to 187.5 suicide deaths per 100,000 population. We found evidence of suicide rate parity between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations in some contexts, while elsewhere rates were more than 20 times higher among Indigenous peoples. Conclusions This review showed that suicide rates in Indigenous populations vary globally, and that suicide rate disparities between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations are substantial in some settings but not universal. Including Indigenous identifiers and disaggregating national suicide mortality data by geography and ethnicity will improve the quality and relevance of evidence that informs community, clinical, and public health practice in Indigenous suicide prevention.

Background: In Scotland, a national HPV immunisation programme began in 2008 for 12- to 13-year olds, with a catch-up campaign from 2008 to 2011 for those under the age of 18. To monitor the impact of HPV immunisation on cervical disease at the population level, a programme of national surveillance was established. Methods: We analysed colposcopy data from a cohort of women born between 1988 and 1992 who entered the Scottish Cervical Screening Programme (SCSP) and were aged 20–21 in 2008–2012. Results: By linking datasets from the SCSP and colposcopy services, we observed a significant reduction in diagnoses of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 1 (CIN 1; RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.87; P =0.0008), CIN 2 (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4 to 0.63; P <0.0001) and CIN 3 (RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.58; P <0.0001) for women who received three doses of vaccine compared with unvaccinated women. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to show a reduction of low- and high-grade CIN associated with high uptake of the HPV bivalent vaccine at the population level. These data are very encouraging for countries that have achieved high HPV vaccine uptake.

In many science, technology, engineering, and mathematics disciplines, women are outperformed by men in test scores, jeopardizing their success in science-oriented courses and careers. The current study tested the effectiveness of a psychological intervention, called values affirmation, in reducing the gender achievement gap in a college-level introductory physics class. In this randomized double-blind study, 399 students either wrote about their most important values or not, twice at the beginning of the 15-week course. Values affirmation reduced the male-female performance and learning difference substantially and elevated women's modal grades from the C to B range. Benefits were strongest for women who tended to endorse the stereotype that men do better than women in physics. A brief psychological intervention may be a promising way to address the gender gap in science performance and learning.

Nous avons utilisé les données des cycles de 2020 et de 2021 de l’Enquête sur la COVID‑19 et la santé mentale pour étudier les idées suicidaires chez les adultes de 18 à 34 ans au Canada. La prévalence des idées suicidaires chez les adultes de 18 à 34 ans était de 4,2 % à l’automne 2020 et de 8,0 % au printemps 2021. C’est le sous-groupe des adultes de 18 à 24 ans qui a connu la prévalence la plus élevée, avec 10,7 % au printemps 2021. La prévalence variait en fonction des caractéristiques sociodémographiques et tendait à être plus élevée chez les personnes vivant dans un milieu défavorisé sur le plan matériel. Les idées suicidaires se sont révélées fortement associées aux facteurs de stress liés à la pandémie subis par les répondants.