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"Pray, Ian"
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Pulmonary Illness Related to E-Cigarette Use in Illinois and Wisconsin — Final Report
2020
Vaping use has rapidly increased. In this final report from the Wisconsin and Illinois departments of public health, a severe respiratory illness in otherwise healthy young people is described. Of the 98 case patients identified in this investigation, 95% were hospitalized, 26% were intubated, and 2 persons died.
Journal Article
Coronavirus Disease among Workers in Food Processing, Food Manufacturing, and Agriculture Workplaces
2021
We describe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among US food manufacturing and agriculture workers and provide updated information on meat and poultry processing workers. Among 742 food and agriculture workplaces in 30 states, 8,978 workers had confirmed COVID-19; 55 workers died. Racial and ethnic minority workers could be disproportionately affected by COVID-19.
Journal Article
Non-local validated parametrization of an agent-based model of local-scale Taenia solium transmission in North-West Peru
by
Pizzitutti, Francesco
,
Pray, Ian W.
,
O’Neal, Seth E.
in
Agent-based models
,
Animal populations
,
Animals
2022
The pork tapeworm, Taenia solium , is the cause of a preventable zoonotic disease, cysticercosis, affecting both pigs and humans. Continued endemic transmission of T . solium is a major contributor of epilepsy and other neurologic morbidity, and the source of important economic losses, in many rural areas of developing countries. Simulation modelling can play an important role in aiding the design and evaluation of strategies to control or even eliminate transmission of the parasite. In this paper, we present a new agent based model of local-scale T . solium transmission and a new, non-local, approach to the model calibration to fit model outputs to observed human taeniasis and pig cysticercosis prevalence simultaneously for several endemic villages. The model fully describes all relevant aspects of T . solium transmission, including the processes of pig and human infection, the spatial distribution of human and pig populations, the production of pork for human consumption, and the movement of humans and pigs in and out in several endemic villages of the northwest of Peru. Despite the high level of uncertainty associated with the empirical measurements of epidemiological data associated with T . solium , the non-local calibrated model parametrization reproduces the observed prevalences with an acceptable precision. It does so not only for the villages used to calibrate the model, but also for villages not included in the calibration process. This important finding demonstrates that the model, including its calibrated parametrization, can be successfully transferred within an endemic region. This will enable future studies to inform the design and optimization of T . solium control interventions in villages where the calibration may be prevented by the limited amount of empirical data, expanding the possible applications to a wider range of settings compared to previous models.
Journal Article
School District Prevention Policies and Risk of COVID-19 Among In-Person K–12 Educators, Wisconsin, 2021
by
Gangnon, Ronald
,
McCoy, Katherine
,
Pray, Ian W.
in
Coronaviruses
,
COVID-19
,
COVID-19 - epidemiology
2022
Objectives. To assess the rate of COVID-19 among in-person K–12 educators and the rate’s association with various COVID-19 prevention policies in school districts. Methods. We linked actively working, in-person K–12 educators in Wisconsin to COVID-19 cases with onset from September 2 to November 24, 2021. A mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for pertinent person- and community-level confounders, compared the hazard rate of COVID-19 among educators working in districts with and without specific COVID-19 prevention policies. Results. In-person educators working in school districts that required masking for students and staff experienced 19% lower hazards of COVID-19 than did those in districts without any masking policy (hazard ratio = 0.81; 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.92). Reduced COVID-19 hazards were consistent and remained statistically significant when educators were stratified by elementary, middle, and high school environments. Conclusions. In Wisconsin’s K–12 school districts, during the fall 2021 academic semester, a policy that required both students and staff to mask was associated with significantly reduced risk of COVID-19 among in-person educators across all grade levels. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(12):1791–1799. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307095 )
Journal Article
Geographically Targeted Interventions versus Mass Drug Administration to Control Taenia solium Cysticercosis, Peru
2021
Optimal control strategies for Taenia solium taeniasis and cysticercosis have not been determined. We conducted a 2-year cluster randomized trial in Peru by assigning 23 villages to 1 of 3 geographically targeted intervention approaches. For ring screening (RS), participants living near pigs with cysticercosis were screened for taeniasis; identified cases were treated with niclosamide. In ring treatment (RT), participants living near pigs with cysticercosis received presumptive treatment with niclosamide. In mass treatment (MT), participants received niclosamide treatment every 6 months regardless of location. In each approach, half the villages received targeted or mass oxfendazole for pigs (6 total study arms). We noted significant reductions in seroincidence among pigs in all approaches (67.1% decrease in RS, 69.3% in RT, 64.7% in MT; p<0.001), despite a smaller proportion of population treated by targeted approaches (RS 1.4%, RT 19.3%, MT 88.5%). Our findings suggest multiple approaches can achieve rapid control of T. solium transmission.
Journal Article
Interventions to Disrupt Coronavirus Disease Transmission at a University, Wisconsin, USA, August–October 2020
by
Shechter, Todd
,
Jovaag, Amanda
,
Westergaard, Ryan P.
in
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
,
Community
,
Control
2021
University settings have demonstrated potential for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks; they combine congregate living, substantial social activity, and a young population predisposed to mild illness. Using genomic and epidemiologic data, we describe a COVID-19 outbreak at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA. During August-October 2020, a total of 3,485 students, including 856/6,162 students living in dormitories, tested positive. Case counts began rising during move-in week, August 25-31, 2020, then rose rapidly during September 1-11, 2020. The university initiated multiple prevention efforts, including quarantining 2 dormitories; a subsequent decline in cases was observed. Genomic surveillance of cases from Dane County, in which the university is located, did not find evidence of transmission from a large cluster of cases in the 2 quarantined dorms during the outbreak. Coordinated implementation of prevention measures can reduce COVID-19 spread in university settings and may limit spillover to the surrounding community.
Journal Article
Spatial relationship between Taenia solium tapeworm carriers and necropsy cyst burden in pigs
by
Pray, Ian W.
,
Gamboa, Ricardo
,
O’Neal, Seth E.
in
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
,
AIDS
,
Animals
2017
Taenia solium, a parasite that affects humans and pigs, is the leading cause of preventable epilepsy in the developing world. Geographic hotspots of pigs testing positive for serologic markers of T. solium exposure have been observed surrounding the locations of human tapeworm carriers. This clustered pattern of seropositivity in endemic areas formed the basis for geographically targeted control interventions, which have been effective at reducing transmission. In this study, we further explore the spatial relationship between human tapeworm carriers and infected pigs using necroscopic examination as a quantitative gold-standard diagnostic to detect viable T. solium cyst infection in pigs.
We performed necroscopic examinations on pigs from 7 villages in northern Peru to determine the number of viable T. solium cysts in each pig. Participating humans in the study villages were tested for T. solium tapeworm infection (i.e., taeniasis) with an ELISA coproantigen assay, and the distances from each pig to its nearest human tapeworm carrier were calculated. We assessed the relationship between proximity to a tapeworm carrier and the prevalence of light, moderate, and heavy cyst burden in pigs. The prevalence of pig infection was greatest within 50 meters of a tapeworm carrier and decreased monotonically as distance increased. Pigs living less than 50 meters from a human tapeworm carrier were 4.6 times more likely to be infected with at least one cyst than more distant pigs. Heavier cyst burdens, however, were not more strongly associated with proximity to tapeworm carriers than light cyst burdens.
Our study shows that human tapeworm carriers and pigs with viable T. solium cyst infection are geographically correlated in endemic areas. This finding supports control strategies that treat humans and pigs based on their proximity to other infected individuals. We did not, however, find sufficient evidence that heavier cyst burdens in pigs would serve as improved targets for geographically focused control interventions.
Journal Article
Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission (“CystiAgent”) against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru
by
Pray, Ian W.
,
Pizzitutti, Francesco
,
Lambert, William E.
in
Agent-based models
,
Animals
,
Applications software
2021
The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a parasitic helminth that imposes a major health and economic burden on poor rural populations around the world. As recognized by the World Health Organization, a key barrier for achieving control of T. solium is the lack of an accurate and validated simulation model with which to study transmission and evaluate available control and elimination strategies. CystiAgent is a spatially-explicit agent based model for T. solium that is unique among T. solium models in its ability to represent key spatial and environmental features of transmission and simulate spatially targeted interventions, such as ring strategy.
We validated CystiAgent against results from the Ring Strategy Trial (RST)-a large cluster-randomized trial conducted in northern Peru that evaluated six unique interventions for T. solium control in 23 villages. For the validation, each intervention strategy was replicated in CystiAgent, and the simulated prevalences of human taeniasis, porcine cysticercosis, and porcine seroincidence were compared against prevalence estimates from the trial. Results showed that CystiAgent produced declines in transmission in response to each of the six intervention strategies, but overestimated the effect of interventions in the majority of villages; simulated prevalences for human taenasis and porcine cysticercosis at the end of the trial were a median of 0.53 and 5.0 percentages points less than prevalence observed at the end of the trial, respectively.
The validation of CystiAgent represented an important step towards developing an accurate and reliable T. solium transmission model that can be deployed to fill critical gaps in our understanding of T. solium transmission and control. To improve model accuracy, future versions would benefit from improved data on pig immunity and resistance, field effectiveness of anti-helminthic treatment, and factors driving spatial clustering of T. solium infections including dispersion and contact with T. solium eggs in the environment.
Journal Article
Understanding transmission and control of the pork tapeworm with CystiAgent: a spatially explicit agent-based model
2020
Background
The pork tapeworm,
Taenia solium
, is a serious public health problem in rural low-resource areas of Latin America, Africa and Asia, where the associated conditions of nuerocysticercosis (NCC) and porcine cysticercosis cause substantial health and economic harms. An accurate and validated transmission model for
T. solium
would serve as an important new tool for control and elimination, as it would allow for comparison of available intervention strategies, and prioritization of the most effective strategies for control and elimination efforts.
Methods
We developed a spatially-explicit agent-based model (ABM) for
T. solium
(“CystiAgent”) that differs from prior
T. solium
models by including a spatial framework and behavioral parameters such as pig roaming, open human defecation, and human travel. In this article, we introduce the structure and function of the model, describe the data sources used to parameterize the model, and apply sensitivity analyses (Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC)) to evaluate model parameters.
Results
LHS-PRCC analysis of CystiAgent found that the parameters with the greatest impact on model uncertainty were the roaming range of pigs, the infectious duration of human taeniasis, use of latrines, and the set of “tuning” parameters defining the probabilities of infection in humans and pigs given exposure to
T. solium.
Conclusions
CystiAgent is a novel ABM that has the ability to model spatial and behavioral features of
T. solium
transmission not available in other models. There is a small set of impactful model parameters that contribute uncertainty to the model and may impact the accuracy of model projections. Field and laboratory studies to better understand these key components of transmission may help reduce uncertainty, while current applications of CystiAgent may consider calibration of these parameters to improve model performance. These results will ultimately allow for improved interpretation of model validation results, and usage of the model to compare available control and elimination strategies for
T. solium
.
Journal Article
GPS Tracking of Free-Ranging Pigs to Evaluate Ring Strategies for the Control of Cysticercosis/Taeniasis in Peru
2016
Taenia solium, a parasitic cestode that affects humans and pigs, is the leading cause of preventable epilepsy in the developing world. T. solium eggs are released into the environment through the stool of humans infected with an adult intestinal tapeworm (a condition called taeniasis), and cause cysticercosis when ingested by pigs or other humans. A control strategy to intervene within high-risk foci in endemic communities has been proposed as an alternative to mass antihelminthic treatment. In this ring strategy, antihelminthic treatment is targeted to humans and pigs residing within a 100 meter radius of a pig heavily-infected with cysticercosis. Our aim was to describe the roaming ranges of pigs in this region, and to evaluate whether the 100 meter radius rings encompass areas where risk factors for T. solium transmission, such as open human defecation and dense pig activity, are concentrated.
In this study, we used Global Positioning System (GPS) devices to track pig roaming ranges in two rural villages of northern Peru. We selected 41 pigs from two villages to participate in a 48-hour tracking period. Additionally, we surveyed all households to record the locations of open human defecation areas. We found that pigs spent a median of 82.8% (IQR: 73.5, 94.4) of their time roaming within 100 meters of their homes. The size of home ranges varied significantly by pig age, and 93% of the total time spent interacting with open human defecation areas occurred within 100 meters of pig residences.
These results indicate that 100 meter radius rings around heavily-infected pigs adequately capture the average pig's roaming area (i.e., home range) and represent an area where the great majority of exposure to human feces occurs.
Journal Article