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Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series
2011
This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.
Journal Article
GPU-computing in econophysics and statistical physics
2011
A recent trend in computer science and related fields is general purpose computing on graphics processing units (GPUs), which can yield impressive performance. With multiple cores connected by high memory bandwidth, today’s GPUs offer resources for non-graphics parallel processing. This article provides a brief introduction into the field of GPU computing and includes examples. In particular computationally expensive analyses employed in financial market context are coded on a graphics card architecture which leads to a significant reduction of computing time. In order to demonstrate the wide range of possible applications, a standard model in statistical physics – the Ising model – is ported to a graphics card architecture as well, resulting in large speedup values.
Journal Article
Scenicness assessment of onshore wind sites with geotagged photographs and impacts on approval and cost-efficiency
2021
Cost-efficiency and public acceptance are competing objectives for onshore wind locations. The impact of ‘scenicness’ on these two objectives has been difficult to quantify for wind projects. We analyse the link between economic wind resources and beautiful landscapes with over 1.5 million ‘scenicness’ ratings of around 200,000 geotagged photographs from across Great Britain. We find evidence that planning applications for onshore wind are more likely to be rejected when proposed in more scenic areas. Compared to the technical potential of onshore wind of 1,700 TWh at a total cost of £280 billion, removing the 10% most scenic areas implies about 18% lower generation potential and 8–26% higher costs. We also consider connection distances to the nearest electricity network transformer, showing that the connection costs constitute up to half of the total costs. The results provide a quantitative framework for researchers and policymakers to consider the trade-offs between cost-efficiency and public acceptance for onshore wind.
There have been objections to onshore wind turbines for aesthetic reasons, although a quantitative methodology to provide some assessment of the risk of such public objections has been missing. McKenna et al. develop a method to use geotagged photographs of landscapes to assess potential future public acceptance of projects.
Journal Article
Computer simulations of the Ising Model on Graphics Processing Units
2012
The aim of this review article is to give an introduction to implementations of the Ising model accelerated by Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and to summarize different techniques that have been used and tested by different groups. Different parallelization schemes and algorithms are discussed and compared, technical details are pointed out and their performance potential is evaluated.
Journal Article
Editorial
2011
The two articles in this issue of the European Physical Journal Special Topics cover topics in Econophysics and GPU computing in the last years. In the first article [1], the formation of market prices for financial assets is described which can be understood as superposition of individual actions of market participants, in which they provide cumulative supply and demand. This concept of macroscopic properties emerging from microscopic interactions among the various subcomponents of the overall system is also well-known in statistical physics. The distribution of price changes in financial markets is clearly non-Gaussian leading to distinct features of the price process, such as scaling behavior, non-trivial correlation functions and clustered volatility. This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.
Journal Article
Editorial
2011
The two articles in this issue of the
European Physical Journal Special Topics
cover topics in
Econophysics
and
GPU computing
in the last years. In the first article [1], the formation of market prices for financial assets is described which can be understood as superposition of individual actions of market participants, in which they provide cumulative supply and demand. This concept of macroscopic properties emerging from microscopic interactions among the various subcomponents of the overall system is also well-known in statistical physics. The distribution of price changes in financial markets is clearly non-Gaussian leading to distinct features of the price process, such as scaling behavior, non-trivial correlation functions and clustered volatility. This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.
Journal Article