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A sample of 448 significant tornado events was collected, representing a population of 1072 individual tornadoes across the contiguous United States from 2000 to 2008. Classification of convective mode was assessed from radar mosaics for each event with the majority classified as discrete cells compared to quasi-linear convective systems and clusters. These events were further stratified by season and region and compared with a null-tornado database of 911 significant hail and wind events that occurred without nearby tornadoes. These comparisons involved 1) environmental variables that have been used through the past 25–50 yr as part of the approach to tornado forecasting, 2) recent sounding-based parameter evaluations, and 3) convective mode. The results show that composite and kinematic parameters (whether at standard pressure levels or sounding derived), along with convective mode, provide greater discrimination than thermodynamic parameters between significant tornado versus either significant hail or wind events that occurred in the absence of nearby tornadoes.

Uncertainty in satellite-derived burned area estimates are especially high in grassland systems, which are some of the most frequently burned ecosystems in the world. In this study, we compare differences in predicted burned area estimates for a region with the highest fire activity in North America, the Flint Hills of Kansas, USA, using the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD64A1 burned area product and a customization of the MODIS MCD64A1 product using a major ground-truthing effort by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE-MODIS customization). Local-scale ground-truthing and the KDHE-MODIS product suggests MODIS burned area estimates under predicted fire occurrence by 28% over a 19-year period in the Flint Hills ecoregion. Between 2001 and 2019, MODIS product indicated <1 million acres burned on average, which was far below the KDHE-MODIS customization (mean = 2.6 million acres). MODIS also showed that <1% of the Flint Hills burned 5 times from 2001–2019 (2001, 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2013), whereas KDHE-MODIS customization showed this never happened in any single year. KDHE-MODIS also captured some areas of the Flint Hills that burned every year (19 times out of 19 years), which is well-known with field inventory data, whereas the maximum fire occurrence in MODIS was 14 times in 19 years. Finally, MODIS never captured >8% burned area for any given year in the Flint Hills, even in years when fire activity was highest (2008, 2009, 2011, 2014). Based on these results, coupling MODIS burned area computations with local scale ground-truth efforts has the potential to significantly improve fire occurrence estimates and reduce uncertainty in other grassland and savanna regions.

Context The > 25,000 km 2 Flint Hills ecoregion in eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, USA, is an economically and ecologically important area encompassing the largest remaining tallgrass prairie ecosystem in North America. Prescribed fires are used routinely to control invasive woody species and improve forage production for the beef-cattle industry. However, burning releases harmful pollutants that, at times, contribute to air quality problems for communities across a multi-state area. Objectives Establish a modeling framework for synthesizing long-term ecological data in support of Flint Hills tallgrass prairie management goals for identifying how much, where, and when rangeland burning can be conducted to maximize ecological and economic benefits while minimizing regional air quality impacts. Methods We used EPA’s VELMA ecohydrology model to synthesize long-term experimental data at the 35 km 2 Konza Prairie Biological Station (KPBS) describing the effects of climate, fire, grazing, topography, and soil moisture and nutrient dynamics on tallgrass prairie productivity and fuel loads; and to spatially extrapolate that synthesis to estimate grassland productivity and fuel loads across the nearly 1000 times larger Flint Hills ecoregion to support prescribed burning smoke trajectory modeling using the State of Kansas implementation of the U.S. Forest Service BlueSky framework. Results VELMA provided a performance-tested synthesis of KPBS data from field observations and experiments, thereby establishing a tool for regionally simulating the combined effects of climate, fire, grazing, topography, soil moisture, and nutrients on tallgrass prairie productivity and fuel loads. VELMA’s extrapolation of that synthesis allowed difficult-to-quantify fuel loads to be mapped across the Flint Hills to support environmental decision making, such as forecasting when, where, and how prescribed burning will have the least impact on downwind population centers. Conclusions Our regional spatial and temporal extrapolation of VELMA’s KPBS data synthesis posits that the effects of integrated ecohydrological processes operate similarly across tallgrass prairie spatial scales. Based on multi-scale performance tests of the VELMA-BlueSky toolset, our multi-institution team is confident that it can assist stakeholders and decision makers in realistically exploring tallgrass prairie management options for balancing air quality, tallgrass prairie sustainability, and associated economic benefits for the Flint Hills ecoregion and downwind communities.