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Magma reservoirs are thought to grow relatively slowly, assembling incrementally under volatile-saturated conditions. Eruptions may be triggered by injections of volatile-rich melt, or generation of over-pressure due to protracted crystallization. Here, we analyse fluorine, chlorine and water in apatite crystals trapped at different stages of magma evolution, and in melt inclusions from clinopyroxene and biotite crystals expelled during an explosive eruption of the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, about 4,000 years ago. We combine our geochemical analyses with thermodynamic modelling to reconstruct the evolution of magmatic volatile contents leading up to the explosive eruption. We find that the magma reservoir remained persistently water-undersaturated throughout most of its lifetime. Even crystals in contact with the melt shortly before eruption show that the magma was volatile-undersaturated. Our models suggest that the melt reached volatile saturation at low temperatures, just before eruption. We suggest that late-stage volatile saturation probably triggered the eruption, and conclude that ‘priming’ of the magma system for eruption may occur on timescales much shorter than the decadal to centennial timescales thought typical for magma reservoir assembly. Thus, surface deformation pulses that record magma assembly at depth beneath Campi Flegrei and other similar magmatic systems may not be immediately followed by an eruption; and explosive eruptions may begin with little warning. Magma reservoirs typically accumulate over hundreds to thousands of years. Yet, geochemical analyses of volcanic rocks from Campi Flegrei suggest activity there was triggered by injections of volatile-rich magma only days before the eruption.

Sea-level change is thought to influence the frequencies of volcanic eruptions on glacial to interglacial timescales. However, the underlying physical processes and their importance relative to other influences (for example, magma recharge rates) remain poorly understood. Here we compare an approximately 360-kyr-long record of effusive and explosive eruptions from the flooded caldera volcano at Santorini (Greece) with a high-resolution sea-level record spanning the last four glacial–interglacial cycles. Numerical modelling shows that when the sea level falls by 40 m below the present-day level, the induced tensile stresses in the roof of the magma chamber of Santorini trigger dyke injections. As the sea level continues to fall to −70 or −80 m, the induced tensile stress spreads throughout the roof so that some dykes reach the surface to feed eruptions. Similarly, the volcanic activity gradually disappears after the sea level rises above −40 m. Synchronizing Santorini’s stratigraphy with the sea-level record using tephra layers in marine sediment cores shows that 208 out of 211 eruptions (both effusive and explosive) occurred during periods constrained by sea-level falls (below −40 m) and subsequent rises, suggesting a strong absolute sea-level control on the timing of eruptions on Santorini—a result that probably applies to many other volcanic islands around the world. Sea-level lowstands over the last 360,000 years strongly controlled the timing of eruptions of the Santorini Volcano, according to an analysis of tephras and sea-level records, as well as numerical modelling of the underlying magma chamber.

The Ethiopian Rift Valley hosts the longest record of human co-existence with volcanoes on Earth, however, current understanding of the magnitude and timing of large explosive eruptions in this region is poor. Detailed records of volcanism are essential for interpreting the palaeoenvironments occupied by our hominin ancestors; and also for evaluating the volcanic hazards posed to the 10 million people currently living within this active rift zone. Here we use new geochronological evidence to suggest that a 200 km-long segment of rift experienced a major pulse of explosive volcanic activity between 320 and 170 ka. During this period, at least four distinct volcanic centres underwent large-volume (>10 km 3 ) caldera-forming eruptions, and eruptive fluxes were elevated five times above the average eruption rate for the past 700 ka. We propose that such pulses of episodic silicic volcanism would have drastically remodelled landscapes and ecosystems occupied by early hominin populations. Past volcanic eruptions along the densely populated Ethiopian Rift valley remain poorly constrained despite the present day hazard. Hutchison et al . show that a large volcanic flare up along a 200 km section of the rift occurred between 320–170 ka dramatically affecting the landscape and hominin population.

Santorini Volcano, the site of the catastrophic Minoan eruption in Greece, exhibits two distinct eruptive styles: small, effusive eruptions occur relatively frequently and build shields and domes of lava, whereas large explosive eruptions occur rarely, at intervals of 10,000–30,000 years. Both types of eruption were thought to incubate in a shallow magma chamber that is continually charged by small batches of melt injected into the chamber from below. However, petrological work suggests that at least 15% of the material ejected during the Minoan explosive eruption arrived in the magma chamber less than 100 years before the eruption. Here we use Satellite Radar Interferometry (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of surface deformation at Santorini to show that 10–20 million m 3 of magma have been intruded beneath the volcano since January 2011. This volume is equivalent to 10–50% of the volumes of recorded dome-forming eruptions. GPS and triangulation data show that this is the only volumetrically significant intrusion to have occurred since 1955, shortly after the last eruption. Our observations imply that whether Santorini is in an explosive or dome-forming phase, its shallow magma chamber is charged episodically by high-flux batches of magma. The durations of these events are short in comparison with the intervening periods of repose and their timing is controlled by the dynamics of deeper magma reservoirs. Santorini Volcano in Greece was thought to be continually charged by small injections of magma. Measurements of surface deformation show that magma equivalent to 10–50% of that emitted in previous small eruptions has been injected beneath Santorini since January 2011, implying that the volcano is instead charged by rapid, episodic fluxes of melt.

Keywords: Maternal health, Child health, Community health, Primary health care, Community-based primary health care, Implementation research, Census-Based Impact-Oriented Approach, Care Groups, Community birthing centers, Guatemala, Equity, Curamericas Global, Curamericas/Guatemala

Satellite instruments play a valuable role in detecting, monitoring and characterising emissions of ash and gas into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions. This study uses two satellite instruments, the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), to examine the plumes of ash and sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the April 2021 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent. The frequent ABI data have been used to construct a 14 d chronology of a series of explosive events at La Soufrière, which is then complemented by measurements of SO2 from IASI, which is able to track the plume as it is transported around the globe. A minimum of 35 eruptive events were identified using true, false and brightness temperature difference maps produced with the ABI data. The high temporal resolution images were used to identify the approximate start and end times, as well as the duration and characteristics of each event. From this analysis, four distinct phases within the 14 d eruption have been defined, each consisting of multiple explosive events with similar characteristics: (1) an initial explosive event, (2) a sustained event lasting over 9 h, (3) a pulsatory phase with 25 explosive events in a 65.3 h period and (4) a waning sequence of explosive events. It is likely that the multiple explosive events during the April 2021 eruption contributed to the highly complex plume structure that can be seen in the IASI measurements of the SO2 column amounts and heights. The bulk of the SO2 from the first three phases of the eruption was transported eastwards, which based on the wind direction at the volcano implies that the SO2 was largely in the upper troposphere. Some of the SO2 was carried to the south and west of the volcano, suggesting a smaller emission of the gas into the stratosphere, there being a shift in wind direction around the height of the tropopause. The retrieved SO2 heights show that the plume had multiple layers but was largely concentrated between 13 and 19 km, with the majority of the SO2 being located in the upper troposphere and around the height of the tropopause, with some emission into the stratosphere. An average e-folding time of 6.07±4.74 d was computed based on the IASI SO2 results: similar to other tropical eruptions of this magnitude and height. The SO2 was trackable for several weeks after the eruption and is shown to have circulated the globe, with parts of it reaching as far as 45∘ S and 45∘ N. Using the IASI SO2 measurements, a time series of the total SO2 mass loading was produced, with this peaking on 13 April (descending orbits) at 0.31±0.09 Tg. Converting these mass values to a temporally varying SO2 flux demonstrated that the greatest emission occurred on 10 April with that measurement incorporating SO2 from the second phase of the eruption (sustained emission) and the beginning of the pulsatory phase. The SO2 flux is then shown to fall during the later stages of the eruption: suggesting a reduction in eruptive energy, something also reflected in ash height estimates obtained with the ABI instrument. A total SO2 emission of 0.63±0.5 Tg of SO2 has been derived, although due to limitations associated with the retrieval, particularly in the first few days after the eruption began, this, the retrieved column amounts and the total SO2 mass on each day should be considered minimum estimates. There are a number of similarities between the 1979 and 2021 eruptions at La Soufrière, with both eruptions consisting of a series of explosive events with varied heights and including some emission into the stratosphere. These similarities highlight the importance of in-depth investigations into eruptions and the valuable contribution of satellite data for this purpose; as these studies aid in learning about a volcano's behaviour, which may allow for better preparation for future eruptive activity.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is an important atmospheric constituent that plays a crucial role in many atmospheric processes. Volcanic eruptions are a significant source of atmospheric SO2 and its effects and lifetime depend on theSO2 injection altitude. The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on the METOP satellite can be used to study volcanic emission of SO2 using high-spectral resolution measurements from 1000 to 1200 and from 1300 to 1410 cm-1 (the 7.3 and 8.7 µm SO2 bands) returning both SO2 amount and altitude data. The scheme described in Carboni et al. (2012) has been applied to measure volcanic SO2 amount and altitude for 14 explosive eruptions from 2008 to 2012. The work includes a comparison with the following independent measurements: (i) the SO2 column amounts from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull plumes have been compared with Brewer ground measurements over Europe; (ii) theSO2 plumes heights, for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grimsvötn eruptions, have been compared with CALIPSO backscatter profiles. The results of the comparisons show that IASISO2 measurements are not affected by underlying cloud and are consistent (within the retrieved errors) with the other measurements. The series of analysed eruptions (2008 to 2012) show that the biggest emitter of volcanic SO2 was Nabro, followed by Kasatochi and Grímsvötn. Our observations also show a tendency for volcanic SO2 to reach the level of the tropopause during many of the moderately explosive eruptions observed. For the eruptions observed, this tendency was independent of the maximum amount of SO2 (e.g. 0.2 Tg for Dalafilla compared with 1.6 Tg for Nabro) and of the volcanic explosive index (between 3 and 5).

Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume.

A compilation and analysis of the size and frequency of the largest known explosive eruptions on Earth are presented. The 'largest' explosive events are defined to be those eruptions yielding greater than 10^sup 15^ kg of products (>150 times the mass of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo). This includes all known eruptions with a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 8. A total of 47 such events, ranging in age from Ordovician to Pleistocene, are identified, of which 42 eruptions are known from the past 36 Ma. A logarithmic 'magnitude' scale of eruption size is applied, based on erupted mass, to these events. On this scale, 46 eruptions >10^sup 15^ kg are defined to be of magnitude M8. There is one M9 event known so far, the Fish Canyon Tuff, with an erupted mass of >10^sup 16^ kg and a magnitude of 9.2. Analysis of this dataset indicates that eruptions of size M8 and larger have occurred with a minimum frequency of [asymptotically =]1.4 events/Ma in two pulses over the past 36 Ma. On the basis of the activity during the past 13.5 Ma, there is at least a 75% probability of a M8 eruption (>10^sup 15^ kg) occurring within the next 1 Ma. There is a 1% chance of an eruption of this scale in the next 460-7,200 years. While the effect of any individual M8 or larger eruption is considerable, the time-averaged impact (i.e., erupted mass×frequency) of the very largest eruptions is small, due to their rarity. The long-term, time-averaged erupted mass flux from magnitude 8 and 9 eruptions is ~10-100 times less than for M7 eruptions; the time-averaged mass eruption rate from M7 eruptions is 9,500 kg s^sup -1^, whereas for M8 and M9 eruptions it is ~70-1,000 kg s^sup -1^. Comparison of the energy release by volcanic eruptions with that due to asteroid impacts suggests that on timescales of <100,000 years, explosive volcanic eruptions are considerably more frequent than impacts of similar energy yield. This has important implications for understanding the risk of extreme events.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]