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"Raffaele, F."
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Analysis of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposed Population in Africa Under Two Different Emission Scenarios
2020
It is well established that Africa is particularly exposed to climate extremes including heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall events. How exposed Africa is to the co‐occurrence of these events is however virtually unknown. This study provides the first analysis of projected changes in the co‐occurrence of five such compound climate extremes in Africa, under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. These changes are combined with population projections for a low (SSP1) and high (SSP3) population growth scenario, in order to provide estimates of the number of people that may be exposed to such events at the end of the 21st century. We make use of an ensemble of regional climate projections from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) project embedded in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. This ensemble comprises five different Earth System Model/Regional Climate Model (ESM/RCM) combinations with three different ESMs and two RCMs. We show that all five compound climate extremes will increase in frequency, with changes being greater under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. Moreover, populations exposed to these changes are greater under RCP8.5/SSP3, than RCP2.6/SSP1, increasing by 47‐ and 12‐fold, respectively, compared to the present‐day. Regions of Africa that are particularly exposed are West Africa, Central‐East Africa, and Northeast and Southeast Africa. Increased exposure is mainly driven by the interaction between climate and population growth, and the effect of population alone. This has important policy implications in relation to climate mitigation and adaptation. Plain Language Summary It is well known that Africa is exposed to a range of different climate hazards including droughts, heat waves, and extreme rainfall events, which cause major social and economic suffering. It is, however, largely unknown how exposed the African population is to the co‐occurrence of such climate hazards. This is important because compound events will likely increase the suffering far and above that caused by individual climate hazards. In this study, we provide an analysis of potential changes in five different compound events, and the exposure of the African population to them, at the end of this century. Combining exposure to all compound events, the results show that compared to the present‐day, the exposure of the African population may increase by 12‐ and 47‐fold in the best‐ and worst‐case scenarios, respectively. The spatial distribution of changes shows that West Africa and central and eastern regions of Africa may be particularly exposed. Increased exposure is mainly caused by the interaction between climate and population growth, and the effect of population alone. These results imply that any policy response designed to reduce exposure needs to address both climatic and socioeconomic factors. Key Points Five compound climate extremes are projected to be more frequent in Africa under both emission scenarios by the end of the century Populations in West Africa, Central‐East Africa, and Northeast and Southeast Africa are projected to be particularly exposed Increased exposure is mainly driven by the interaction between climate and population growth, and the effect of population alone
Journal Article
A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean
2020
A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes.
Journal Article
The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections
by
Coppola, Erika
,
Giorgi, Filippo
,
Raffaele, Francesca
in
Air pollution
,
Annual variations
,
Climate
2019
We revisit the issue of the response of precipitation characteristics to global warming based on analyses of global and regional climate model projections for the 21st century. The prevailing response we identify can be summarized as follows: increase in the intensity of precipitation events and extremes, with the occurrence of events of “unprecedented” magnitude, i.e., a magnitude not found in the present-day climate; decrease in the number of light precipitation events and in wet spell lengths; and increase in the number of dry days and dry spell lengths. This response, which is mostly consistent across the models we analyzed, is tied to the difference between precipitation intensity responding to increases in local humidity conditions and circulations, especially for heavy and extreme events, and mean precipitation responding to slower increases in global evaporation. These changes in hydroclimatic characteristics have multiple and important impacts on the Earth's hydrologic cycle and on a variety of sectors. As examples we investigate effects on potential stress due to increases in dry and wet extremes, changes in precipitation interannual variability, and changes in the potential predictability of precipitation events. We also stress how the understanding of the hydroclimatic response to global warming can provide important insights into the fundamental behavior of precipitation processes, most noticeably tropical convection.
Journal Article
Taboo Breakers, Assumption Shakers, Path Makers: Charting a Course for Post-Orthodox IS Scholarship
2025
This editorial introduces a special CAIS Debate on taboo-breaking in Information Systems (IS) research. As digital infrastructures increasingly shape social, political, and economic life, the epistemic boundaries of the IS discipline demand urgent reconsideration. Drawing on the concept of taboo as a boundary mechanism, the editorial argues that certain topics, logics, and methods remain excluded not for lack of relevance but due to disciplinary norms that reward instrumentalism, neutrality, and legibility. Organised into three clusters (topical, epistemic, and methodological taboos), the contributions break silences and carve out new routes to post-orthodox IS scholarship. The editorial calls for a more pluralistic, reflexive, and responsible IS discipline, willing to confront its own discomforts and the societal consequences of its knowledge practices. It concludes that taboo-breaking is a necessary catalyst for disciplinary renewal.
Journal Article
Patient hesitancy in perioperative clinical trial enrollment during the COVID-19 pandemic
by
Swingle, Joseph F.
,
Chirinos, Josue D.
,
Gianni, Stefano
in
Beliefs, opinions and attitudes
,
Clinical trials
,
Consent
2023
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused tremendous disruptions to non-COVID-19 clinical research. However, there has been little investigation on how patients themselves have responded to clinical trial recruitment during the COVID-19 pandemic. To investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on rates of patient consent to enrollment into non-COVID-19 clinical trials, we carried out a cross-sectional study using data from the Nitric Oxide/Acute Kidney Injury (NO/AKI) and Minimizing ICU Neurological Dysfunction with Dexmedetomidine-Induced Sleep (MINDDS) trials. All patients eligible for the NO/AKI or MINDDS trials who came to the hospital for cardiac surgery and were approached to gain consent to enrollment were included in the current study. We defined “Before COVID-19” as the time between the start of the relevant clinical trial and the date when efforts toward that clinical trial were deescalated by the hospital due to COVID-19. We defined “During COVID-19” as the time between trial de-escalation and trial completion. 5,015 patients were screened for eligibility. 3,851 were excluded, and 1,434 were approached to gain consent to enrollment. The rate of consent to enrollment was 64% in the “Before COVID-19” group and 45% in the “During COVID-19” group (n = 1,334, P <0.001) (RR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.80, P <0.001). Thus, we found that rates of consent to enrollment into the NO/AKI and MINDDS trials dropped significantly with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Patient demographic and socioeconomic status data collected from electronic medical records and patient survey data did not shed light on possible explanations for this observed drop, indicating that there were likely other factors at play that were not directly measured in the current study. Increased patient hesitancy to enroll in clinical trials can have detrimental effects on clinical science, patient health, and patient healthcare experience, so understanding and addressing this issue during the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial.
Journal Article
Six Inversion Strategies for Avoiding Rejection in Academic Publishing: Lessons from the IS Discipline
2023
The publication process in many academic disciplines, including in Information Systems (IS), can seem arduous and unpredictable, particularly for early career researchers. While the literature offers plentiful guidance on how to pursue publication acceptance, this paper offers a crisp summary of common mistakes that lead to rejection and provides six actionable inversion strategies for avoiding them. Namely, when preparing a paper, we recommend you (1) abstain from methodological promiscuity and (2) never overclaim (but try not to underclaim either); When submitting a paper, it is a good idea to (3) steer clear of bootlicking and (3) avoid sloppiness; and, after receiving the reviews, you should (5) forego belligerence, and (6) stop flogging a dead horse. These inversion strategies can help early career researchers better navigate the review process, increasing the chances of their papers maturing, and helping to avoid mistakes that lower the chance of publishing in high-quality IS journals.
Journal Article
Projective-geometric aspects of homogeneous third-order Hamiltonian operators
by
Ferapontov, Eugene V
,
Pavlov, Maxim V
,
Vitolo, Raffaele F
in
Differential geometry
,
Operators (mathematics)
2014
We investigate homogeneous third-order Hamiltonian operators of differential-geometric type. Based on the correspondence with quadratic line complexes, a complete list of such operators for two and three components is obtained.