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"Raiser, Martin"
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Golden growth : restoring the lustre of the European economic model
Europe's growth will have to be golden in yet another sense. Economic prosperity has brought to Europeans the gift of longer lives, and the continent's population has aged a lot over the last five decades. Over the next five, it will age even more by 2060; almost a third of Europeans will be older than 65 years. Europe will have to rebuild its structures to make fuller use of the energies and experience of its more mature population's people in their golden years. These desires and developments already make the European growth model distinct. Keeping to the discipline of the golden rule would make it distinguished. This report shows how Europeans have organized the six principal economic activities trade, finance, enterprise, innovation, labor, and government in unique ways. But policies in parts of Europe do not recognize the imperatives of demographic maturity and clash with growth's golden rule. Conforming growth across the continent to Europe's ideals and the iron laws of economics will require difficult decisions. This report was written to inform them. Its findings the changes needed to make trade and finance will not be as hard as those to improve enterprise and innovation; these in turn are not as arduous and urgent as the changes needed to restructure labor and government. Its message the remedies are not out of reach for a part of the world that has proven itself both intrepid and inclusive.
eBook
Beyond convergence: Poland and Turkey en route to high income
This paper compares and contrasts the policy reform experiences of Poland and Turkey en route to high income. For both countries, globalization has presented unprecedented opportunities to catch up, unleased by integration into European and global markets and the establishment of macroeconomic discipline. These opportunities were reinforced by the creation of economic institutions to strengthen competition and support private entrepreneurship, catalyzed by the convergence process with the European Union. Both Poland and Turkey have shown resilience following the 2008 global crisis, but continued success will require renewed structural reform measures. Dealing with the challenging of aging while at the same time finding a way to sustain productivity growth through greater domestic innovation is shaping Poland’s policy agenda. Turkey's structural and demographic potential as well as its strategic location between the markets of Europe and Asia offers attractive value proposition to investors, which could be further enhanced with improvements in business regulations and economic governance.
Journal Article
Subsidising inequality: Economic reforms, fiscal transfers and convergence across Chinese provinces
The article investigates per capita income convergence across Chinese provinces over the 1978-92 period. It confirms previous studies which find a reduction in inter-regional income inequality over the course of economic reforms. However, the rate of convergence has declined since 1985 as a result of two factors. First, the shift from rural to industrial reforms has disproportionately benefited the relatively wealthier coastal provinces. Second, the system of inter-provincial fiscal transfers has prevented convergence among interior provinces, as transfers have gone to the richer among them. Further fiscal decentralisation and an acceleration of reforms in the interior provinces is thus unlikely to increase regional income inequality.
Journal Article
Economic cooperation in the wider Central Asia region
This paper explores ways to unlock the potential for regional development and economic cooperation in the wider Central Asia region. It argues that understanding critical clusters of interrelated issues, and explicitly taking into account geopolitical and political economy considerations, are key in this regard. Regional countries and other stakeholders should focus on a few areas where there are real prospects for success in the short run; a combination of modest win-win initiatives and in some cases bold strokes that augment and change the distribution of benefits and hence make cooperation more likely to deliver progress.
eBook
Home Grown or Imported? Initial Conditions, External Anchors and the Determinants of Institutional Reform in the Transition Economies
In this article we examine the determinants of institutional change using a panel dataset comprising 25 transition economies. A defining characteristic of our approach is that we treat institutional change as a multidimensional unobserved variable, accounting for the fact that each of our indicators represents a noisy signal. Our results suggest that institutional change is significantly path dependent. However, policy can to some extent break this dependence through economic and political liberalisation at the start of the transition and with the help of an external anchor such as EU accession.
Journal Article
Trust in Transition: Cross-Country and Firm Evidence
Using data from a large survey of firms across 26 transition economies, this article assesses the extent of trust in business relationships by measuring the level of prepayment demanded by suppliers, which we interpret as a measure of (dis)trust. We investigate a range of potential determinants of trust and find that trust among businesses is higher where confidence in third party enforcement through the legal system is higher. We also find that different types of business networks have a differential impact on the degree of trust between enterprises: networks based around family and friends help to build trust among firms, whereas networks based around enterprise insiders and government agencies appear to undermine trust. Our conclusion, based on the use of a unique multicountry enterprise data set, is that enterprises' room for maneuver in overcoming opportunism and distrust is much more limited by countrywide systemic factors than previously believed. (JEL D23, D92, P26, P31, Z13)
Journal Article
Financing a bright future for south Asia
The World Bank's International Development Association will be a critical — and invaluable — piece of the puzzle. Since its inception 60 years ago, IDA has transformed millions of lives and created opportunities for people around the world to thrive. Over the past four years alone, more than 84.7mn people in the region have accessed safety net programmes; more than 24.5mn have received essential health, nutrition and population services; more than 2.6mn gained access to improved water sources; and over 11.5mn directly benefited from IDA-focused investments in jobs. Nepal is another IDA success story. Since 1969, IDA has provided Nepal with $8.2bn in credits and $1.2bn in grants; and the lives of millions of Nepalis have been improved through investments in education, health, jobs and skills, connectivity and infrastructure, social protection, food security and biodiversity conservation.
Trade Publication Article
China’s rise fits every development model
[...]as I outline in this blog, China fits the development orthodoxy rather well. During the last decade, China has doubled down on a public-investment-led growth strategy, while investments in human capital have lagged particularly in the non-coastal and rural areas (Figure 2). [...]some of China’s specific institutional solutions-such as the substantially larger role played by state-owned enterprises, particularly in finance and services, or the highly decentralized and competitive system of inter-governmental relations-may hinder growth more than help going forward.
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