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Background Crop improvement through cross-population genomic prediction and genome editing requires identification of causal variants at high resolution, within fewer than hundreds of base pairs. Most genetic mapping studies have generally lacked such resolution. In contrast, evolutionary approaches can detect genetic effects at high resolution, but they are limited by shifting selection, missing data, and low depth of multiple-sequence alignments. Here we use genomic annotations to accurately predict nucleotide conservation across angiosperms, as a proxy for fitness effect of mutations. Results Using only sequence analysis, we annotate nonsynonymous mutations in 25,824 maize gene models, with information from bioinformatics and deep learning. Our predictions are validated by experimental information: within-species conservation, chromatin accessibility, and gene expression. According to gene ontology and pathway enrichment analyses, predicted nucleotide conservation points to genes in central carbon metabolism. Importantly, it improves genomic prediction for fitness-related traits such as grain yield, in elite maize panels, by stringent prioritization of fewer than 1% of single-site variants. Conclusions Our results suggest that predicting nucleotide conservation across angiosperms may effectively prioritize sites most likely to impact fitness-related traits in crops, without being limited by shifting selection, missing data, and low depth of multiple-sequence alignments. Our approach—Prediction of mutation Impact by Calibrated Nucleotide Conservation (PICNC)—could be useful to select polymorphisms for accurate genomic prediction, and candidate mutations for efficient base editing. The trained PICNC models and predicted nucleotide conservation at protein-coding SNPs in maize are publicly available in CyVerse ( https://doi.org/10.25739/hybz-2957 ).

Genomic prediction typically relies on associations between single-site polymorphisms and traits of interest. This representation of genomic variability has been successful for predicting many complex traits. However, it usually cannot capture the combination of alleles in haplotypes and it has generated little insight about the biological function of polymorphisms. Here we present a novel and cost-effective method for imputing cis haplotype associated RNA expression (HARE), studied their transferability across tissues, and evaluated genomic prediction models within and across populations. HARE focuses on tightly linked cis acting causal variants in the immediate vicinity of the gene, while excluding trans effects from diffusion and metabolism. Therefore, HARE estimates were more transferrable across different tissues and populations compared to measured transcript expression. We also showed that HARE estimates captured one-third of the variation in gene expression. HARE estimates were used in genomic prediction models evaluated within and across two diverse maize panels–a diverse association panel (Goodman Association panel) and a large half-sib panel (Nested Association Mapping panel)–for predicting 26 complex traits. HARE resulted in up to 15% higher prediction accuracy than control approaches that preserved haplotype structure, suggesting that HARE carried functional information in addition to information about haplotype structure. The largest increase was observed when the model was trained in the Nested Association Mapping panel and tested in the Goodman Association panel. Additionally, HARE yielded higher within-population prediction accuracy as compared to measured expression values. The accuracy achieved by measured expression was variable across tissues, whereas accuracy by HARE was more stable across tissues. Therefore, imputing RNA expression of genes by haplotype is stable, cost-effective, and transferable across populations.

Key message Sequence-based AI models show great potential for prediction of variant effects at high resolution, but their practical value in plant breeding remains to be confirmed through rigorous validation studies. Plant breeding has traditionally relied on phenotyping to select individuals with desirable traits—a process that is both costly and time-consuming. Increasingly, breeding strategies are shifting toward precision breeding, where causal variants are directly targeted based on their effects. To predict the effects of causal variants, in silico methods are emerging as efficient alternatives or complements to mutagenesis screens. Here, we review state-of-the-art machine learning methods for predicting variant effects in plants across both coding and noncoding regions, contrasting supervised approaches in functional genomics with unsupervised methods in comparative genomics. We discuss challenges in validating predictions, and compare these methods with traditional association and comparative genomics techniques. We argue that modern sequence models extend traditional methods by generalizing across genomic contexts, fitting a unified model across loci rather than a separate model for each locus. In doing so, they address inherent limitations of traditional quantitative and evolutionary comparative genetics techniques. However, the accuracy and generalizability of sequence models heavily depend on the training data, highlighting the need for validation experiments. We point to successful applications of sequence models, especially with protein sequences, and identify areas for further improvement, especially in modeling regulatory sequences. While not yet mature for in silico-driven precision breeding, sequence models show strong potential to become an integral part of the breeder’s toolbox.

Despite its importance to plant function and human health, the genetics underpinning element levels in maize grain remain largely unknown. Through a genome-wide association study in the maize Ames panel of nearly 2,000 inbred lines that was imputed with ∼7.7 million SNP markers, we investigated the genetic basis of natural variation for the concentration of 11 elements in grain. Novel associations were detected for the metal transporter genes rte2 (rotten ear2) and irt1 (iron-regulated transporter1) with boron and nickel, respectively. We also further resolved loci that were previously found to be associated with one or more of five elements (copper, iron, manganese, molybdenum, and/or zinc), with two metal chelator and five metal transporter candidate causal genes identified. The nas5 (nicotianamine synthase5) gene involved in the synthesis of nicotianamine, a metal chelator, was found associated with both zinc and iron and suggests a common genetic basis controlling the accumulation of these two metals in the grain. Furthermore, moderate predictive abilities were obtained for the 11 elemental grain phenotypes with two whole-genome prediction models: Bayesian Ridge Regression (0.33–0.51) and BayesB (0.33–0.53). Of the two models, BayesB, with its greater emphasis on large-effect loci, showed ∼4–10% higher predictive abilities for nickel, molybdenum, and copper. Altogether, our findings contribute to an improved genotype-phenotype map for grain element accumulation in maize.

Genomic prediction is a useful tool to accelerate genetic gain in selection using DNA marker information. However, this technology typically relies on standard prediction procedures, such as genomic BLUP, that are not designed to accommodate population heterogeneity resulting from differences in marker effects across populations. In this study, we assayed different prediction procedures to capture marker-by-population interactions in genomic prediction models. Prediction procedures included genomic BLUP and two kernel-based extensions of genomic BLUP which explicitly accounted for population heterogeneity. To model population heterogeneity, dissemblance between populations was either depicted by a unique coefficient (as previously reported), or a more flexible function of genetic distance between populations (proposed herein). Models under investigation were applied in a diverse switchgrass sample under two validation schemes: whole-sample calibration, where all individuals except selection candidates are included in the calibration set, and cross-population calibration, where the target population is entirely excluded from the calibration set. First, we showed that using fixed effects, from principal components or putative population groups, appeared detrimental to prediction accuracy, especially in cross-population calibration. Then we showed that modeling population heterogeneity by our proposed procedure resulted in highly significant improvements in model fit. In such cases, gains in accuracy were often positive. These results suggest that population heterogeneity may be parsimoniously captured by kernel methods. However, in cases where improvement in model fit by our proposed procedure is null-to-moderate, ignoring heterogeneity should probably be preferred due to the robustness and simplicity of the standard genomic BLUP model.

In the past, plant breeding has undergone three major transformations and is currently transitioning to a new technological phase, Breeding 4. This phase is characterized by the development of methods for biological design of plant varieties, including transformation and gene editing techniques directed toward causal loci. The application of such technologies will require to reliably estimate the effect of loci in plant genomes by avoiding the situation where the number of loci assayed (p) surpasses the number of plant genotypes (n). Here, we discuss approaches to avoid this curse of dimensionality (n ≪ p), which will involve analyzing intermediate phenotypes such as molecular traits and component traits related to plant morphology or physiology. Because these approaches will rely on novel data types such as DNA sequences and high-throughput phenotyping images, Breeding 4 will call for analyses that are complementary to traditional quantitative genetic studies, being based on machine learning techniques which make efficient use of sequence and image data. In this article, we will present some of these techniques and their application for prioritizing causal loci and developing improved varieties in Breeding 4.

Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is a native prairie grass and valuable bio-energy crop. The physiological change from juvenile to reproductive adult can draw important resources away from growth into producing reproductive structures, thereby limiting the growth potential of early flowering plants. Delaying the flowering of switchgrass is one approach by which to increase total biomass. The objective of this research was to identify genetic variants and candidate genes for controlling heading and anthesis in segregating switchgrass populations. Four pseudo-F2 populations (two pairs of reciprocal crosses) were developed from lowland (late flowering) and upland (early flowering) ecotypes, and heading and anthesis dates of these populations were collected in Lafayette, IN and DeKalb, IL in 2015 and 2016. Across 2 years, there was a 34- and 73-day difference in heading and a 52- and 75-day difference in anthesis at the Lafayette and DeKalb locations, respectively. A total of 37,901 single nucleotide polymorphisms obtained by exome capture sequencing of the populations were used in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) that identified five significant signals at three loci for heading and two loci for anthesis. Among them, a homolog of FLOWERING LOCUS T on chromosome 5b associated with heading date was identified at the Lafayette location across 2 years. A homolog of ARABIDOPSIS PSEUDO-RESPONSE REGULATOR 5, a light modulator in the circadian clock associated with heading date was detected on chromosome 8a across locations and years. These results demonstrate that genetic variants related to floral development could lend themselves to a long-term goal of developing late flowering varieties of switchgrass with high biomass yield.

Switchgrass is a relatively high-yielding and environmentally sustainable biomass crop, but further genetic gains in biomass yield must be achieved to make it an economically viable bioenergy feedstock. Genomic selection (GS) is an attractive technology to generate rapid genetic gains in switchgrass, and meet the goals of a substantial displacement of petroleum use with biofuels in the near future. In this study, we empirically assessed prediction procedures for genomic selection in two different populations, consisting of 137 and 110 half-sib families of switchgrass, tested in two locations in the United States for three agronomic traits: dry matter yield, plant height, and heading date. Marker data were produced for the families’ parents by exome capture sequencing, generating up to 141,030 polymorphic markers with available genomic-location and annotation information. We evaluated prediction procedures that varied not only by learning schemes and prediction models, but also by the way the data were preprocessed to account for redundancy in marker information. More complex genomic prediction procedures were generally not significantly more accurate than the simplest procedure, likely due to limited population sizes. Nevertheless, a highly significant gain in prediction accuracy was achieved by transforming the marker data through a marker correlation matrix. Our results suggest that marker-data transformations and, more generally, the account of linkage disequilibrium among markers, offer valuable opportunities for improving prediction procedures in GS. Some of the achieved prediction accuracies should motivate implementation of GS in switchgrass breeding programs.

Core Ideas The genetic architecture of plant height and bioenergy quality was investigated. Interactive effects included interactions with ecotype and pairwise synergies. Statistically valid methods for preselecting pairwise synergies were introduced. Biological information corroborated seven of the effects identified. Effects were related to flowering time, lignin synthesis, plant growth or senescence. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a promising herbaceous energy crop, but further gains in biomass yield and quality must be achieved to enable a viable bioenergy industry. Developing DNA markers can contribute to such progress, but depiction of genetic bases should be reliable, involving simple additive marker effects and also interactions with genetic backgrounds (e.g., ecotypes) or synergies with other markers. We analyzed plant height, C content, N content, and mineral concentration in a diverse panel consisting of 512 genotypes of upland and lowland ecotypes. We performed association analyses based on exome capture sequencing and tested 439,170 markers for marginal effects, 83,290 markers for marker × ecotype interactions, and up to 311,445 marker pairs for pairwise interactions. Analyses of pairwise interactions focused on subsets of marker pairs preselected on the basis of marginal marker effects, gene ontology annotation, and pairwise marker associations. Our tests identified 12 significant effects. Homology and gene expression information corroborated seven effects and indicated plausible causal pathways: flowering time and lignin synthesis for plant height; plant growth and senescence for C content and mineral concentration. Four pairwise interactions were detected, including three interactions preselected on the basis of pairwise marker correlations. Furthermore, a marker × ecotype interaction and a pairwise interaction were confirmed in an independent switchgrass panel. Our analyses identified reliable candidate variants for important bioenergy traits. Moreover, they exemplified the importance of interactive effects for depicting genetic bases and illustrated the usefulness of preselecting marker pairs for identifying pairwise marker interactions in association studies.

Genomic prediction typically relies on associations between single-site polymorphisms and traits of interest. This representation of genomic variability has been successful for predicting many complex traits. However, it usually cannot capture the combination of alleles in haplotypes and it has generated little insight about the biological function of polymorphisms. Here we present a novel and cost-effective method for imputing cis haplotype associated RNA expression (HARE), studied their transferability across tissues, and evaluated genomic prediction models within and across populations. HARE focuses on tightly linked cis acting causal variants in the immediate vicinity of the gene, while excluding trans effects from diffusion and metabolism. Therefore, HARE estimates were more transferrable across different tissues and populations compared to measured transcript expression. We also showed that HARE estimates captured one-third of the variation in gene expression. HARE estimates were used in genomic prediction models evaluated within and across two diverse maize panels-a diverse association panel (Goodman Association panel) and a large half-sib panel (Nested Association Mapping panel)-for predicting 26 complex traits. HARE resulted in up to 15% higher prediction accuracy than control approaches that preserved haplotype structure, suggesting that HARE carried functional information in addition to information about haplotype structure. The largest increase was observed when the model was trained in the Nested Association Mapping panel and tested in the Goodman Association panel. Additionally, HARE yielded higher within-population prediction accuracy as compared to measured expression values. The accuracy achieved by measured expression was variable across tissues, whereas accuracy by HARE was more stable across tissues. Therefore, imputing RNA expression of genes by haplotype is stable, cost-effective, and transferable across populations.