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Since the European population of great cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis) rapidly increased 30 years ago, Denmark has been one of the core breeding areas for this colonial water bird. Following a 10-year period with stable breeding numbers in Denmark, the population of great cormorants decreased. At the same time, a combination of cold winters and low availability of coastal prey fish apparently triggered birds to seek new foraging areas. Thus, cormorants began to appear in rivers and streams coinciding with an observed massive decline of fish, mainly brown trout (Salmo trutta) and grayling (Thymallus thymallus). In this paper, we present the results from studies using radio-telemetry, PIT-tagging, and traditional fish surveys to estimate the impact of predation in Danish lowland rivers. Recovery of PIT-tags revealed that an estimated 30% of wild trout and 72% of wild grayling tagged in a small river were eaten by cormorants. In another medium-sized river, 79% of radio-tagged adult grayling were removed, presumably by cormorants during winter. Thus, predation from cormorants appears to be at a level that explains the observed collapse of grayling and brown trout populations in many Danish streams.

Background. Routine vaccines may have nonspecific effects on mortality. An observational study found that OPV given at birth (OPV0) was associated with increased male infant mortality. We investigated the effect of OPV0 on infant mortality in a randomized trial in Guinea-Bissau. Methods. A total of 7012 healthy normal-birth-weight neonates were randomized to BCG only (intervention group) or OPV0 with BCG (usual practice). All children were to receive OPV with pentavalent vaccine (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and hepatitis B) at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. Seven national OPV campaigns were also conducted during the trial period. Children were followed to age 12 months. We used Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality. Results. The trial contradicted the original hypothesis about OPV0 increasing male infant mortality. Within 12 months, 73 children in the BCG + OPV group and 87 children in the BCG-only group died, all from infectious diseases. Comparing BCG + OPV0 vs BCG only, the HR was 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], .61–1.13): 0.72 (95% CI, .47–1.10) in boys and 0.97 (95% CI, .61–1.54) in girls. For children enrolled within the first 2 days of life, the HR for BCG + OPV0 vs BCG only was 0.58 (95% CI, .38–.90). From enrollment until the time of OPV campaigns, the HR was 0.68 (95% CI, .45–1.00), the beneficial effect being separately significant for males (0.55 [95% CI, .32–.95]), Conclusions. This is the only randomized trial of the effect of OPV0 on mortality. OPV0 may be associated with nonspecific protection against infectious disease mortality, particularly when given early in life. There are reasons to monitor mortality when OPV is being phased out. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT00710983.

Background. Observational studies have suggested that BCG may have nonspecific beneficial effects on survival. Low-birth-weight (LBW) children are not given BCG at birth in Guinea-Bissau; we conducted a randomized trial of BCG at birth (early BCG) vs delayed BCG. Methods, In the period 2004—2008 we recruited 2320 LBW children in Bissau. The children were visited at home at 2, 6, and 12 months of age. With a pretrial infant mortality of 250 per 1000, we hypothesized a 25% reduction in infant mortality for LBW children. Results. Infant mortality was only 101 per 1000 during the trial. In the primary analysis, infant mortality was reduced insignificantly by 17% (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = .83 [.63—1.08]). In secondary analyses, early BCG vaccine was safe with an MRR of .49 (.21—1.15) after 3 days and .55 (.34—.89) after 4 weeks. The reduction in neonatal mortality was mainly due to fewer cases of neonatal sepsis, respiratory infection, and fever. The impact of early BCG on infant mortality was marked for children weighing < 1.5 kg (MRR = .43 [.21—.85]) who had lower coverage for diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccinations. Conclusions. Though early BCG did not reduce infant mortality significantly, it may have a beneficial effect in the neonatal period. This could be important for public health because BCG is often delayed in low-income countries.

Increasing emphasis on the use of real-world evidence (RWE) to support clinical policy and regulatory decision-making has led to a proliferation of guidance, advice, and frameworks from regulatory agencies, academia, professional societies, and industry. A broad spectrum of studies use real-world data (RWD) to produce RWE, ranging from randomized trials with outcomes assessed using RWD to fully observational studies. Yet, many proposals for generating RWE lack sufficient detail, and many analyses of RWD suffer from implausible assumptions, other methodological flaws, or inappropriate interpretations. The Causal Roadmap is an explicit, itemized, iterative process that guides investigators to prespecify study design and analysis plans; it addresses a wide range of guidance within a single framework. By supporting the transparent evaluation of causal assumptions and facilitating objective comparisons of design and analysis choices based on prespecified criteria, the Roadmap can help investigators to evaluate the quality of evidence that a given study is likely to produce, specify a study to generate high-quality RWE, and communicate effectively with regulatory agencies and other stakeholders. This paper aims to disseminate and extend the Causal Roadmap framework for use by clinical and translational researchers; three companion papers demonstrate applications of the Causal Roadmap for specific use cases.

Background More efforts have been put in place to increase full immunization coverage rates in the last decade. Little is known about the levels and consequences of delaying or vaccinating children in different schedules. Vaccine effectiveness depends on the timing of its administration, and it is not optimal if given early, delayed or not given as recommended. Evidence of non-specific effects of vaccines is well documented and could be linked to timing and sequencing of immunization. This paper documents the levels of coverage, timing and sequencing of routine childhood vaccines. Methods The study was conducted between 2007 and 2014 in two informal urban settlements in Nairobi. A total of 3856 children, aged 12–23 months and having a vaccination card seen were included in analysis. Vaccination dates recorded from the cards seen were used to define full immunization coverage, timeliness and sequencing. Proportions, medians and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to assess and describe the levels of full immunization coverage, vaccination delays and sequencing. Results The findings indicate that 67 % of the children were fully immunized by 12 months of age. Missing measles and third doses of polio and pentavalent vaccine were the main reason for not being fully immunized. Delays were highest for third doses of polio and pentavalent and measles. About 22 % of fully immunized children had vaccines in an out-of-sequence manner with 18 % not receiving pentavalent together with polio vaccine as recommended. Conclusions Results show higher levels of missed opportunities and low coverage of routine childhood vaccinations given at later ages. New strategies are needed to enable health care providers and parents/guardians to work together to increase the levels of completion of all required vaccinations. In particular, more focus is needed on vaccines given in multiple doses (polio, pentavalent and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines).

Background BCG vaccination is recommended at birth in low-income countries, but vaccination is often delayed. Often 20-dose vials of BCG are not opened unless at least ten children are present for vaccination (“restricted vial-opening policy”). BCG coverage is usually reported as 12-month coverage, not disclosing the delay in vaccination. Several studies show that BCG at birth lowers neonatal mortality. We assessed BCG coverage at different ages and explored reasons for delay in BCG vaccination in rural Guinea-Bissau. Methods Bandim Health Project (BHP) runs a health and demographic surveillance system covering women and their children in 182 randomly selected village clusters in rural Guinea-Bissau. BCG coverage was assessed for children born in 2010, when the restricted vial-opening policy was universally implemented, and in 2012–2013, where BHP provided BCG to all children at monthly visits in selected intervention regions. Factors associated with delayed BCG vaccination were evaluated using logistic regression models. Coverage between intervention and control regions were evaluated in log-binomial regression models providing prevalence ratios. Results Among 3951 children born in 2010, vaccination status was assessed for 84%. BCG coverage by 1 week of age was 11%, 38% by 1 month, and 92% by 12 months. If BCG had been given at first contact with the health system, 1-week coverage would have been 35% and 1-month coverage 54%. When monthly visits were introduced in intervention regions, 1-month coverage was higher in intervention regions (88%) than in control regions (51%), the prevalence ratio being 1.74 (1.53-2.00). Several factors, including socioeconomic factors, were associated with delayed BCG vaccination in the 2010-birth cohort. When BCG was available at monthly visits these factors were no longer associated with delayed BCG vaccination, only region of residence was associated with delayed BCG vaccination. Conclusion BCG coverage during the first months of life is low in Guinea-Bissau. Providing BCG at monthly vaccination visits removes the risk factors associated with delayed BCG vaccination.

Introduction:Increasing interest in real-world evidence has fueled the development of study designs incorporating real-world data (RWD). Using the Causal Roadmap, we specify three designs to evaluate the difference in risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) with oral semaglutide versus standard-of-care: (1) the actual sequence of non-inferiority and superiority randomized controlled trials (RCTs), (2) a single RCT, and (3) a hybrid randomized-external data study.Methods:The hybrid design considers integration of the PIONEER 6 RCT with RWD controls using the experiment-selector cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimator. We evaluate 95% confidence interval coverage, power, and average patient time during which participants would be precluded from receiving a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP1-RA) for each design using simulations. Finally, we estimate the effect of oral semaglutide on MACE for the hybrid PIONEER 6-RWD analysis.Results:In simulations, Designs 1 and 2 performed similarly. The tradeoff between decreased coverage and patient time without the possibility of a GLP1-RA for Designs 1 and 3 depended on the simulated bias. In real data analysis using Design 3, external controls were integrated in 84% of cross-validation folds, resulting in an estimated risk difference of –1.53%-points (95% CI –2.75%-points to –0.30%-points).Conclusions:The Causal Roadmap helps investigators to minimize potential bias in studies using RWD and to quantify tradeoffs between study designs. The simulation results help to interpret the level of evidence provided by the real data analysis in support of the superiority of oral semaglutide versus standard-of-care for cardiovascular risk reduction.

Crude rates such as the crude death rate are functions of both the age-specific rates and the age composition of a population. However, differences in the age structure between two populations or two time periods can result in specious differences in the corresponding crude rates making direct comparisons between populations or across time inappropriate. Therefore, when comparing crude rates between populations, it is desirable to eliminate or minimize the influence of age composition. This task is accomplished by using a standard age structure yielding an age-standardized rate. This paper proposes an updated International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH) standard for use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) based on newly available data from the health and demographic surveillance system site members of the INDEPTH network located throughout Africa and southern Asia. The updated INDEPTH standard should better reflect the age structure of LMICs and result in more accurate health indicators and demographic rates. We demonstrate use of the new INDEPTH standard along with several existing 'world' standards and show how resulting age-standardized crude deaths rates differ when using the various standard age compositions.

BackgroundThe live smallpox and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccinations have been associated with better adult survival in both Guinea-Bissau and Denmark. In Guinea-Bissau, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 became an important cause of death after smallpox vaccination was phased out globally in 1980. We hypothesised that smallpox and BCG vaccinations were associated with a lower prevalence of HIV-1 infection, and we tested this hypothesis in both Guinea-Bissau and Denmark.MethodsWe conducted 2 studies: (1) a cross-sectional study of HIV infection and vaccination scars in Guinea-Bissau including 1751 individuals and (2) a case-base study with a background population of 46239 individuals in Denmark. In Guinea-Bissau, HIV-1 transmission was almost exclusively sexually transmitted. In Denmark, we excluded intravenous drug users. Data were analyzed using logistic regression.ResultsBacillus Calmette-Guérin and/or smallpox vaccination compared with neither of these vaccines was associated with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for HIV-1 of 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36–1.07) in Guinea-Bissau and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.43–1.15) in Denmark. We combined the results from both settings in a meta-analysis (aOR = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46–0.96). Data from Guinea-Bissau indicated a stronger effect of multiple smallpox vaccination scars (aOR = 0.27; 95% CI, 0.10–0.75) as follows: women, aOR = 0.18 (95% CI, 0.05–0.64); men, aOR = 0.52 (95% CI, 0.12–2.33); sex-differential effect, P = .29.ConclusionsThe studies from Guinea-Bissau and Denmark, 2 very different settings, both suggest that the BCG and smallpox vaccines could be associated with a decreased risk of sexually transmitted HIV-1. It might be informative to pursue this observation and explore possible protective mechanisms as part of the search for an HIV-1 vaccine.

The mechanisms behind heterologous immunity and non-specific effects of vaccines on mortality are not well understood. We examined associations between cytokine responses and subsequent mortality in low-birth-weight infants in Guinea-Bissau. A low-birth-weight trial randomized children to Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) at birth or later according to local policy. Blood samples were obtained from a sub-group at age 6 weeks. Interleukin (IL)-5, IL-10, IL-13, interferon (IFN)-γ, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were measured in whole-blood cell cultures stimulated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), phytohaemagglutinin (PHA), or purified protein derivative (PPD). The outcome was mortality between bleeding and 1 year of age. Non-linear associations between cytokine responses and mortality were examined. Cytokine measurements were available from 390 children. The mortality rate (MR) was high (6.8/100 person-years-observation (PYO)). Both low and high cytokine responses to LPS and PHA were associated with high mortality (MR up to 25/100 PYO in the lowest 10% and 9.2/100 PYO in the highest 10%). In BCG-vaccinated children, higher IFN-γ responses to PPD were associated with better survival (MR ratio = 0.43 (0.24-0.77)). Data presented a rare opportunity to explore associations between cytokine responses and mortality. Both low and high cytokine responses were associated with high mortality; a balanced response to invading pathogens seems preferable.