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Abstract Background In the United States, it is recommended that healthcare providers offer influenza vaccination by October, if possible. However, if the vaccine’s effectiveness soon begins to wane, the optimal time for vaccination may be somewhat later. We examined whether the effectiveness of influenza vaccine wanes during the influenza season with increasing time since vaccination. Methods We identified persons who were vaccinated with inactivated influenza vaccine from 1 September 2010 to 31 March 2017 and who were subsequently tested for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) by a polymerase chain reaction test. Test-confirmed influenza was the primary outcome and days-since-vaccination was the predictor of interest in conditional logistic regression. Models were adjusted for age and conditioned on calendar day and geographic area. RSV was used as a negative-control outcome. Results Compared with persons vaccinated 14 to 41 days prior to being tested, persons vaccinated 42 to 69 days prior to being tested had 1.32 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.55) times the odds of testing positive for any influenza. The odds ratio (OR) increased linearly by approximately 16% for each additional 28 days since vaccination. The OR was 2.06 (95% CI, 1.69 to 2.51) for persons vaccinated 154 or more days prior to being tested. No evidence of waning was found for RSV. Conclusions Our results suggest that effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine wanes during the course of a single season. These results may lead to reconsideration of the optimal timing of seasonal influenza vaccination. Vaccine effectiveness appears to decrease with time since vaccination. The odds of influenza in remote vaccinees vs recent vaccinees increased by about 16% per 28 days. Influenza vaccination may be more effective if received closer to the start of the influenza season.

We examined the effectiveness of maternal vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection in 30,311 infants born at Kaiser Permanente Northern California from December 15, 2020, to May 31, 2022. Using Cox regression, the effectiveness of ≥2 doses of COVID-19 vaccine received during pregnancy was 84% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 66, 93), 62% (CI: 39, 77) and 56% (CI: 34,71) during months 0–2, 0–4 and 0- 6 of a child’s life, respectively, in the Delta variant period. In the Omicron variant period, the effectiveness of maternal vaccination in these three age intervals was 21% (CI: −21,48), 14% (CI: −9,32) and 13% (CI: −3,26), respectively. Over the entire study period, the incidence of hospitalization for COVID-19 was lower during the first 6 months of life among infants of vaccinated mothers compared with infants of unvaccinated mothers (21/100,000 person-years vs. 100/100,000 person-years). Maternal vaccination was protective, but protection was lower during Omicron than during Delta. Protection during both periods decreased as infants aged. This study investigates the impact of maternal COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy on infant infection during the first six months of life. Using data from California, USA, the authors find that protection against infection during the period of Delta dominance was high, but that it declined during the Omicron period.

Pneumococcal pneumonia is concentrated among the elderly. Using a decision analytic model, we projected the future incidence of pneumococcal pneumonia and associated healthcare utilization and costs accounting for an aging US population. Between 2004 and 2040, as the population increases by 38%, pneumococcal pneumonia hospitalizations will increase by 96% (from 401 000 to 790 000), because population growth is fastest in older age groups experiencing the highest rates of pneumococcal disease. Absent intervention, the total cost of pneumococcal pneumonia will increase by $2.5 billion annually, and the demand for healthcare services for pneumococcal pneumonia, especially inpatient capacity, will double in coming decades.

Streptococcus pneumoniae continues to cause a variety of common clinical syndromes, despite vaccination programs for both adults and children. The total U.S. burden of pneumococcal disease is unknown. We constructed a decision tree-based model to estimate U.S. healthcare utilization and costs of pneumococcal disease in 2004. Data were obtained from the 2004–2005 National (Hospital) Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys (outpatient visits, antibiotics) and the National Hospital Discharge Survey (hospitalization rates), and CDC surveillance data. Other assumptions regarding the incidence of each syndrome due to pneumococcus, expected health outcomes, and healthcare utilization were derived from literature and expert opinion. Healthcare and time costs used 2007 dollars. We estimate that, in 2004, pneumococcal disease caused 4.0 million illness episodes, 22,000 deaths, 445,000 hospitalizations, 774,000 emergency department visits, 5.0 million outpatient visits, and 4.1 million outpatient antibiotic prescriptions. Direct medical costs totaled $3.5 billion. Pneumonia (866,000 cases) accounted for 22% of all cases and 72% of pneumococcal costs. In contrast, acute otitis media and sinusitis (1.5 million cases each) comprised 75% of cases but only 16% of direct medical costs. Patients ≥65 years old, accounted for most serious cases and the majority of direct medical costs ($1.8 billion in healthcare costs annually). In this age group, pneumonia caused 242,000 hospitalizations, 1.4 million hospital days, 194,000 emergency department visits, 374,000 outpatient visits, and 16,000 deaths. However, if work loss and productivity are considered, the cost of pneumococcal disease among younger working adults (18–<50) nearly equaled those ≥65. Pneumococcal disease remains a substantial cause of morbidity and mortality even in the era of routine pediatric and adult vaccination. Continued efforts are warranted to reduce serious pneumococcal disease, especially adult pneumonia.

To investigate whether there is a difference in the risk of asthma exacerbations between children with pre-existing asthma who receive live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) compared with inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). We identified IIV and LAIV immunizations occurring between July 1, 2007 and March 31, 2014 among Kaiser Permanente Northern California members aged 2 to <18years with a history of asthma, and subsequent asthma exacerbations seen in the inpatient or Emergency Department (ED) setting. We calculated the ratio of the odds (OR) of an exacerbation being in the risk interval (1–14days) versus the comparison interval (29–42days) following immunization, separately for LAIV and IIV, and then examined whether the OR differed between children receiving LAIV and those receiving IIV (“difference-in-differences”). Among 387,633 immunizations, 85% were IIV and 15% were LAIV. Children getting LAIV vs. IIV were less likely to have “current or recent, persistent” asthma (25% vs. 47%), and more likely to have “remote history” of asthma (47% vs. 25%). Among IIV-vaccinated asthmatic children, the OR of an inpatient/ED asthma exacerbation was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.82–1.15). Among LAIV-vaccinated asthmatic children the OR was 0.38 (95% CI: 0.17–0.90). In the difference-in-differences analysis, the odds of asthma exacerbation following LAIV were less than IIV (Ratio of ORs: 0.40, CI: 0.17–0.95, p value: 0.04). Among children ≥2years old with asthma, we found no increased risk of asthma exacerbation following LAIV or IIV, and a decreased risk following LAIV compared to IIV.

An international group of multidisciplinary experts on middle-ear and paediatric infections met to explore where consensus exists on the management of acute otitis media. After informal discussions among several specialists of paediatric infectious disease, the group was expanded to include a larger spectrum of professionals with complementary expertise in middle-ear disease. Acute otitis media is a very common bacterial infection in children worldwide, leading to excessive antibiotic consumption in children in most countries and to a substantial burden of deafness and suppurative complications in developing countries. The group attempted to move beyond the existing controversies surrounding guidelines on acute otitis media, and to propose to clinicians and public health officials their views on the actions needed to be taken to reduce the disease burden caused by acute otitis media and the microbial antibiotic resistance from the resulting use of antibiotics. Definition of acute otitis media and diagnostic accuracy are crucial steps to identify children who will potentially benefit from treatment with antibiotics and to eliminate unnecessary prescribing. Although the group agreed that antibiotics are distributed indiscriminately, even to children who do not seem to have the disease, no consensus could be reached on whether antibiotics should be given to all appropriately diagnosed children, reflecting the wide range of practices and lack of convincing evidence from observational studies. The major unanimous concern was an urgent need to reduce unnecessary prescribing of antibiotics to prevent further increases in antibiotic resistance. Prevention of acute otitis media with existing and future viral and bacterial vaccines seems the most promising approach to affect disease burden and consequences, both in developed and developing countries.

Objectives. We describe age and gender trends in long-term use of prescribed opioids for chronic noncancer pain in 2 large health plans. Methods. Age- and gender-standardized incident (beginning in each year) and prevalent (ongoing) opioid use episodes were estimated with automated health care data from 1997 to 2005. Profiles of opioid use in 2005 by age and gender were also compared. Results. From 1997 to 2005, age–gender groups exhibited a total percentage increase ranging from 16% to 87% for incident long-term opioid use and from 61% to 135% for prevalent long-term opioid use. Women had higher opioid use than did men. Older women had the highest prevalence of long-term opioid use (8%–9% in 2005). Concurrent use of sedative-hypnotic drugs and opioids was common, particularly among women. Conclusions. Risks and benefits of long-term opioid use are poorly understood, particularly among older adults. Increased surveillance of the safety of long-term opioid use is needed in community practice settings.

There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis). We estimated that for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010–2018, 3.4% (2.8%–4%) of all macrolide prescriptions (fills), 2.7% (2.3%–3.2%) of all aminopenicillin prescriptions, 3.1% (2.4%–3.9%) of all 3rd generation cephalosporins prescriptions, 2.2% (1.8%–2.6%) of all protected aminopenicillin prescriptions and 1.3% (1%–1.6%) of all quinolone prescriptions were influenza-associated. The corresponding proportions were higher for select age groups, e.g. 4.3% of macrolide prescribing in ages over 50 years, 5.1% (3.3%–6.8%) of aminopenicillin prescribing in ages 5–17 years and 3.3% (1.9%–4.6%) in ages <5 years was influenza-associated. The relative contribution of influenza to antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses without a bacterial indication in ages over 5 years was higher than the corresponding relative contribution to prescribing for all diagnoses. Our results suggest a modest benefit of increasing influenza vaccination coverage for reducing prescribing for the five studied antibiotic classes, particularly for macrolides in ages over 50 years and aminopenicillins in ages <18 years, and the potential benefit of other measures to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses with no bacterial indication, both of which may contribute to the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance.

To estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing hospitalizations in persons over 50 years of age. We performed a retrospective, population based study, using a “difference-in-differences” approach to determine the association between hospitalization and prior vaccination. We examined this association when influenza was not circulating and compared it to the association found when influenza was circulating. VE was estimated from the difference in the association between hospitalization and prior vaccination, inside vs. outside influenza seasons. Kaiser Permanente in Northern California. Health plan members aged 50 years and older during the September 1997 to August 2008 study period, when there were about 68,000 pneumonia hospitalizations in 10 million person-years. Vaccination was associated with lower risk of hospitalization for pneumonia and influenza, even before flu season, presumably due to unmeasured confounders. When influenza arrived the hospitalization-vaccination association strengthened, yielding an adjusted VE estimate of 12.4% (95% CI: 1.6–22.0) in persons aged 50–64, and 8.5% (95% CI: 3.3–13.5) in those aged 65 years and older. There was no significant effect on hospitalizations for ischemic heart disease (IHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), or trauma. Influenza vaccination has a modest but significant effect on prevention of hospitalization for pneumonia and influenza in persons 50 years of age and older.