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Confronting climate uncertainty in water resources planning and project design : the decision tree framework
The Decision Tree Framework is a decision support tool that aims to help project managers and development practitioners to pragmatically assess potential climate risks. This document, developed by the Water Global Practice with the support of our Water Partnership Program (WPP), helps practitioners navigate the maze of existing climate assessment methods and models. The tool first screens for climate vulnerabilities, and a \"decision tree\" subsequently helps project teams assess and then develop plans to manage climate and other risks. It uses a step-by-step design--similar to a tree on which each \"branch\" builds off the previous one. [Foreword]
Book
Confronting climate uncertainty in water resources planning and project design
The Decision Tree Framework described in this book provides resource-limited project planners and program managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. At the conclusion of this process, the project planner will be empowered to confidently communicate the method by which the vulnerabilities of the project have been assessed, and how the adjustments that were made (if any were necessary) improved the project's feasibility and profitability. The framework adopts a \"bottom-up\" approach to risk assessment that aims at a thorough understanding of a project's vulnerabilities to climate change in the context of other nonclimate uncertainties (for example, economic, environmental, demographic, or political). It helps to identify projects that perform well across a wide range of potential future climate conditions, as opposed to seeking solutions that are optimal in expected conditions but fragile to conditions deviating from the expected.
eBook
Estimation of flood damage functions for river basin planning: a case study in Bangladesh
Located at the low-lying deltaic floodplain of Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river basin, Bangladesh suffers damages from flooding with regularity. From the perspective of long-term planning and management, a reliable flood damage function is a critical component in the estimation of flood-induced economic loss. Such functions are, however, notoriously difficult to develop. This study utilizes in-stream water level and flood-affected area (FAA) data from Flood Forecasting and Warning Center and Bangladesh Water Development Board to evaluate the best form and data input characteristics of flood damage functions for Bangladesh. The performance of various function configurations (geographic data, water level data, and function form) was tested. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and residual error analysis results suggest that, in general, the logistic function performs better than the other two function forms, and the maximum of daily-maximal water level is the best suited to estimate (FAA). As expected, when information is available from all basins (the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna), the resulting flood damage functions provide the most accurate estimations of FAA. Furthermore, the comparison between single- and multivariable flood damage functions does not demonstrate a clear advantage of using multivariate function in our study area. When flood damage functions with finer spatial and temporal resolution can be constructed using remote sensing technology or hydrodynamic modeling, the intra-year and district-level changes to FAA can be evaluated. These findings provide a better flood management plan for Bangladesh and have potential to be generalized to other similarly flood-affected nations.
Journal Article
Confronting climate uncertainty in water resources planning and project design
Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise
Book
Confronting climate uncertainty in water resources planning and project design : the decision tree framework / Patrick A. Ray, Casey M. Brown
The Decision Tree Framework is a decision support tool that aims to help project managers and development practitioners to pragmatically assess potential climate risks. This document, developed by the Water Global Practice with the support of our Water Partnership Program (WPP), helps practitioners navigate the maze of existing climate assessment methods and models. The tool first screens for climate vulnerabilities, and a \"decision tree\" subsequently helps project teams assess and then develop plans to manage climate and other risks. It uses a step-by-step design--similar to a tree on which each \"branch\" builds off the previous one. [Foreword]--
eBook
Confronting climate uncertainty in water resources planning and project design
The Decision Tree Framework is a decision support tool that aims to help project managers and development practitioners to pragmatically assess potential climate risks. This document, developed by the Water Global Practice with the support of our Water Partnership Program (WPP), helps practitioners navigate the maze of existing climate assessment methods and models. The tool first screens for climate vulnerabilities, and a \"decision tree\" subsequently helps project teams assess and then develop plans to manage climate and other risks. It uses a step-by-step design--similar to a tree on which each \"branch\" builds off the previous one. [Foreword]--
Book