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Purpose: There is great interest in whether type 2 diabetes and its treatments alter breast cancer risk and prognosis, but previous studies are inconclusive. We conducted a cohort study within the UK General Practice Research Database to investigate associations of type 2 diabetes and patterns of diabetes treatment with breast cancer risk and all-cause mortality. Methods: We identified 52,657 women with type 2 diabetes, diagnosed between 1987 and 2007, and 30,210 randomly selected women without diabetes. We performed a time-dependent analysis using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Diabetes was associated with a 29 % increased overall breast cancer risk (95 % CI: 1.16—1.44), but the association markedly attenuated when adjusted for age, period of cohort entry, region, and body mass index (BMI) (HR: 1.12; 95 % CI: 0.98—1.29). Women with breast cancer and pre-existing diabetes had a 49 % (95 % CI: 1.17—1.88) increased all-cause mortality risk compared with women with breast cancer but without diabetes, after controlling for age, period, region, BMI, smoking, alcohol, and deprivation. Compared with sulfonylurea, we found weak evidence that metformin monotherapy (HR: 1.04; 95 % CI: 0.79—1.37) and insulin (HR: 1.33; 95 % CI: 0.63—2.83) modified breast cancer risk among women with diabetes. Conclusions: We found weak evidence that diabetes is associated with a small increased risk of breast cancer. Among treated women, there is no evidence that anti-diabetes treatments modify the risk of developing breast cancer, with wide confidence intervals indicating imprecise effect estimates. Women with breast cancer and diabetes, however, had an increased all-cause mortality risk highlighting the potential importance of maintaining adequate glycemic control alongside anti-cancer treatments and subsequent follow-up.

Rapid diagnostic pathways for cancer have been implemented, but evidence whether shorter diagnostic intervals (time from primary care presentation to diagnosis) improves survival is lacking. Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified patients diagnosed with female breast (8,639), colorectal (5,912), lung (5,737) and prostate (1,763) cancers between 1998 and 2009, and aged >15 years. Presenting symptoms were classified as alert or non-alert, according to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance. We used relative survival and excess risk modeling to determine associations between diagnostic intervals and five-year survival. The survival of patients with colorectal, lung and prostate cancer was greater in those with alert, compared with non-alert, symptoms, but findings were opposite for breast cancer. Longer diagnostic intervals were associated with lower mortality for colorectal and lung cancer patients with non-alert symptoms, (colorectal cancer: Excess Hazards Ratio, EHR >6 months vs <1 month: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.72-1.00; Lung cancer: EHR 3-6 months vs <1 month: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.80-0.95; EHR >6 months vs <1 month: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.74-0.89). Prostate cancer mortality was lower in patients with longer diagnostic intervals, regardless of type of presenting symptom. The association between diagnostic intervals and cancer survival is complex, and should take into account cancer site, tumour biology and clinical practice. Nevertheless, unnecessary delay causes patient anxiety and general practitioners should continue to refer patients with alert symptoms via the cancer pathways, and actively follow-up patients with non-alert symptoms in the community.

Adults living with overweight/obesity are eligible for publicly funded weight management (WM) programmes according to national guidance. People with the most severe and complex obesity are eligible for bariatric surgery. Primary care plays a key role in identifying overweight/obesity and referring to WM interventions. This study aimed to (1) describe the primary care population in England who (a) are referred for WM interventions and (b) undergo bariatric surgery and (2) determine the patient and GP practice characteristics associated with both. An observational cohort study was undertaken using routinely collected primary care data in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. During the study period (January 2007 to June 2020), 1,811,587 adults met the inclusion criteria of a recording of overweight/obesity in primary care, of which 54.62% were female and 20.10% aged 45 to 54. Only 56,783 (3.13%) were referred to WM, and 3,701 (1.09% of those with severe and complex obesity) underwent bariatric surgery. Multivariable Poisson regression examined the associations of demographic, clinical, and regional characteristics on the likelihood of WM referral and bariatric surgery. Higher body mass index (BMI) and practice region had the strongest associations with both outcomes. People with BMI [greater than or equal to]40 kg/m.sup.2 were more than 6 times as likely to be referred for WM (10.05% of individuals) than BMI 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m.sup.2 (1.34%) (rate ratio (RR) 6.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) [5.99,6.40], p < 0.001). They were more than 5 times as likely to undergo bariatric surgery (3.98%) than BMI 35.0 to 40.0 kg/m.sup.2 with a comorbidity (0.53%) (RR 5.52, 95% CI [5.07,6.02], p < 0.001). Patients from practices in the West Midlands were the most likely to have a WM referral (5.40%) (RR 2.17, 95% CI [2.10,2.24], p < 0.001, compared with the North West, 2.89%), and practices from the East of England least likely (1.04%) (RR 0.43, 95% CI [0.41,0.46], p < 0.001, compared with North West). Patients from practices in London were the most likely to undergo bariatric surgery (2.15%), and practices in the North West the least likely (0.68%) (RR 3.29, 95% CI [2.88,3.76], p < 0.001, London compared with North West). Longer duration since diagnosis with severe and complex obesity (e.g., 1.67% of individuals diagnosed in 2007 versus 0.34% in 2015, RR 0.20, 95% CI [0.12,0.32], p < 0.001), and increasing comorbidities (e.g., 2.26% of individuals with 6+ comorbidities versus 1.39% with none (RR 8.79, 95% CI [7.16,10.79], p < 0.001) were also strongly associated with bariatric surgery. The main limitation is the reliance on overweight/obesity being recorded within primary care records to identify the study population. Between 2007 and 2020, a very small percentage of the primary care population eligible for WM referral or bariatric surgery according to national guidance received either. Higher BMI and GP practice region had the strongest associations with both. Regional inequalities may reflect differences in commissioning and provision of WM services across the country. Multi-stakeholder qualitative research is ongoing to understand the barriers to accessing WM services and potential solutions. Together with population-wide prevention strategies, improved access to WM interventions is needed to reduce obesity levels.

Background Abusive head trauma (AHT) in infants is the most common abusive injury in young children, and increased awareness has resulted in the development of prevention programmes. Most research evaluating AHT prevention programmes report parental and carer perspectives. Little is known about barriers and facilitators to adopting, implementing, and maintaining educational programmes from the perspectives of managers and staff delivering the education. ICON is an AHT prevention programme currently being delivered in National Health Service hospital and primary care settings in the United Kingdom. Methods This study evaluated the ICON programme from the perspective of managers and healthcare professionals through the RE-AIM framework using qualitative methods. Fifty-three managers and healthcare professionals across six geographical areas in England participated in individual interviews and focus groups between October 2022 and April 2023. Data collection and analysis were concurrent, systematic, and iterative, using framework analysis as a guide to explore factors impacting ICON’s reach and the key enablers and obstacles to its effectiveness, adoption, implementation, and maintenance. Results Four primary enablers and related challenges to the ICON programme’s impact were identified. Fidelity to the programme’s recommended touchpoints and message impacted ICON’s reach to new parents and carers. Parental receptiveness to the programme was affected by staff individualising their approach. Staff buy-in was related to staff workload and previous experiences with AHT. Managers with strategic leadership responsibility for reducing infant mortality and able to provide governance oversight fostered successful adoption, implementation, and maintenance of the programme. Conclusions Staff are willing and able to deliver the ICON programme, including, where necessary, delivering the key messages in a format acceptable to families varying situations, if given the workload and training to do so. Those in leadership positions influence the likelihood of successful adoption, delivery and longer-term mainstreaming, if they are able to prioritise the programme. Understanding the barriers and facilitators to ICON’s delivery has the potential to inform policy by facilitating the uptake of the programme by settings, enabling delivery of ICON to reach the needs of local families, and ensuring sustainability of the ICON programme.

Background Mental illnesses contribute to a significant burden of disease in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). Understanding risk factors for poor mental health is essential to reducing the burden, and for preventative measures to be implemented. The role of socioeconomic position (SEP) in poorer mental health is well established in high income countries, but less is known in LMICs. This study aimed to identify and synthesise epidemiological evidence for the associations between SEP and depression and suicidal ideation in LMICs in Southeast Asia, and to describe the strength and direction of any associations identified. Methods This systematic review identified evidence by searching four databases in February 2023 (Medline, Embase, PsycInfo and Web of Science), grey literature and reference searching of included papers. Papers were included if they were based in a Southeast Asian LMIC general or hospital populations (= 16 years of age) and explored at least one measure of SEP in association with depression or suicidal ideation. Study quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute tool. A meta-analysis and narrative synthesis were performed. Results Fifty-nine papers from six out of nine Southeast Asian LMICs were identified, with education the most commonly examined measure of SEP. Several papers explored more than one measure of SEP. Around half of the papers were rated as higher quality. Meta-analyses of education (OR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.49-2.35) and working status (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 0.99-1.71) provided evidence of lower levels of education and not being employed being associated with higher odds of depression. Consistent associations between lower SEP and higher odds of depression were also found for financial difficulty and subjective economic status. Three papers used suicidal ideation as their outcome, and there was some evidence of an association with lower SEP and higher ideation. Conclusions Evidence indicates that lower SEP is associated with higher likelihood of depression, whereas for suicidal ideation, the evidence available is insufficient to reach a conclusion. The lack of longitudinal studies prevents the temporal nature of these associations being established. Systematic review registration PROSPERO: CRD42023410444.

Background People facing multiple disadvantage have often experienced extensive trauma. Changing Futures Bristol was part of a national programme to improve outcomes for people who face multiple disadvantage, such as combinations of homelessness, substance misuse, mental ill-health, domestic violence and abuse or contact with the criminal justice system. Aims were to understand how services could be improved, with more trauma-informed approaches at individual, service and system levels. An in-depth mixed method evaluation of Changing Futures Bristol examined how trauma-informed approaches were implemented and linked across services supporting people experiencing multiple disadvantage. Methods The study followed a participatory action research approach, involving research conducted in collaboration with people who have experienced multiple disadvantage, and staff partners. Collaborators actively contributed to securing funding, research design, data analysis, and write-up. A staff survey was conducted using existing measures and some tailored questions, to assess perceptions of trauma-informed approaches, equality, diversity and inclusion, and co-production. One hundred and seventeen staff responded, with 30 staff completing the survey again after one year to track any changes. Twenty-three staff members were interviewed. Qualitative data were analysed thematically, guided by trauma-informed principles and implementation domains. Results Movement toward more trauma-informed approaches was detected, although these changes were not found to be statistically significant after one year. Barriers included short-term funding and commissioning cycles and difficulties in staff retention, due to short-term contracts, vicarious trauma, stress and pressures of the job. Managers had to hold contradicting drivers to deliver targets and manage finances whilst creating space for relational support and trauma-informed practice. To create psychological safety, staff needed to feel trust and transparency. 73% of staff reported lived experience of at least one domain of multiple disadvantage or trauma. Support for staff is needed at all levels of the organisation. Conclusions A long-term, collaborative, and trauma-informed approach is needed at all levels, including leaders, managers, policymakers, and central government. Government and public service reforms that focus on cross-sector collaboration and devolution of power will support trauma-informed practices. Stable, long-term funding and planning will help create a motivated, skilled workforce that can build on existing good practice.

Elective hip and knee replacement operations were suspended in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this suspension and continued disruption to the delivery of joint replacement surgery is still emerging. We describe the impact of the pandemic on the provision of publicly funded elective hip and knee replacement surgery at one teaching hospital in England and on which patients had surgery. We included all elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements performed at one hospital between January 2016 and June 2021. Using data for the years 2016-2019, we estimated the expected number of operations and beds occupied per month in January 2020 to June 2021 using time series linear models (adjusting for season and trend). We compared the predictions with the real data for January 2020 to June 2021 to assess the impact of the pandemic on the provision of elective hip and knee replacements. We compared the length of stay and characteristics (age, gender, number of comorbidities, index of multiple deprivation) of patients who had surgery before the pandemic with those who had surgery during the pandemic. We included 6,964 elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements between January 2016 and June 2021. Between January 2020 and June 2021 primary hip replacement volume was 59% of predicted, and 47% for primary knee replacements. Revision hip replacement volume was 77% of predicted, and 42% for revision knee replacement. Median length of stay was one day shorter for primary (4 vs 3 days) and revision (6 vs 5 days) operations during the pandemic compared with before. Patients operated on during the pandemic were younger and had slightly more comorbidities than those operated on before the pandemic. The restricted provision of elective hip and knee replacements during the COVID-19 pandemic changed the patient casemix, but did not introduce new inequalities in access to these operations. Patients were younger, had more comorbidities, and stayed in hospital for less time than those treated before the pandemic. Approximately half the number of operations were performed during the pandemic than would have been expected and the effect was greatest for revision knee replacements.

ObjectivesThe main objective of the study was to develop more accurate and precise short-term forecasting models for admissions and bed occupancy for an NHS Trust located in Bristol, England. Subforecasts for the medical and surgical specialties, and for different lengths of stay were realisedDesignAutoregressive integrated moving average models were specified on a training dataset of daily count data, then tested on a 6-week forecast horizon. Explanatory variables were included in the models: day of the week, holiday days, lagged temperature and precipitation.SettingA secondary care hospital in an NHS Trust in South West England.ParticipantsHospital admissions between September 2016 and March 2020, comprising 1291 days.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe accuracy of the forecasts was assessed through standard measures, as well as compared with the actual data using accuracy thresholds of 10% and 20% of the mean number of admissions or occupied beds.ResultsThe overall Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) admissions forecast was compared with the Trust’s forecast, and found to be more accurate, namely, being closer to the actual value 95.6% of the time. Furthermore, it was more precise than the Trust’s. The subforecasts, as well as those for bed occupancy, tended to be less accurate compared with the overall forecasts. All of the explanatory variables improved the forecasts.ConclusionsARIMA models can forecast non-elective admissions in an NHS Trust accurately on a 6-week horizon, which is an improvement on the current predictive modelling in the Trust. These models can be readily applied to other contexts, improving patient flow.

Background Hospital admissions for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs) are potentially avoidable. Dementia is one of the leading chronic conditions in terms of variability in ACSC admissions by general practice, as well as accounting for around a third of UK emergency admissions. Methods Using Bayesian multilevel linear regression models, we examined the ecological association of organizational characteristics of general practices (ACSC n=7076, non-ACSC n=7046 units) and Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCG n=212 units) in relation to ACSC and non-ACSC admissions for people with dementia in England. Results The rate of hospital admissions are variable between GP practices, with deprivation and being admitted from home as risk factors for admission for ACSC and non-ACSC admissions. The budget allocated by the CCG to mental health shows diverging effects for ACSC versus non-ACSC admissions, so it is likely there is some geographic variation. Conclusions A variety of factors that could explain avoidable admissions for PWD at the practice level were examined; most were equally predictive for avoidable and non-avoidable admissions. However, a high amount of variation found at the practice level, in conjunction with the diverging effects of the CCG mental health budget, implies that guidance may be applied inconsistently, or local services may have differences in referral criteria. This indicates there is potential scope for improvement.

Background There remains uncertainty in whether vitamin D status affects cancer survival. We investigated whether vitamin D (± calcium) supplementation affects cancer survival in women. Methods Participants were women aged ≥55 years identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) with a first diagnosis of breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian or uterine cancer between 2002 and 2009, and at least 5 years of CPRD data prior to diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of the relationship between pre-diagnostic vitamin D supplementation and all-cause mortality. To avoid confounding by indication, the primary analysis compared women with 3+ to 1–2 (but no more) vitamin D prescriptions. Models were adjusted for pre-diagnostic body mass index, smoking, alcohol and deprivation. A sensitivity analysis excluded supplements prescribed in the year prior to diagnosis. Results Exposure to 3 or more versus 1 to 2 prescriptions of vitamin D was not associated with survival from any of the cancers studied. Any vitamin D prescription, compared to never having been prescribed one, was associated with a better survival from breast cancer (HR 0.78, 95 % CI 0.70 to 0.88). The sensitivity analysis suggested a possible detrimental effect of vitamin D supplementation on lung cancer outcomes (HR for 3 versus 1 or 2 prescriptions 1.22 (95 % CI 0.94 to 1.57); HR for any versus no prescriptions 1.09 (0.98 to 1.22)). Conclusions We found no evidence that vitamin D supplementation is associated with survival among women with cancer. Previous observational findings of beneficial effects of vitamin D supplementation on cancer survival may be confounded.