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Uncertainties in estimates of climate cooling by anthropogenic aerosols have not decreased significantly in the last two decades, partly because observational constraints on crucial aerosol properties simulated in Earth System Models are insufficient. To help address this insufficiency in aerosol observations, we describe a paradigm for deriving higher-level aerosol properties with machine learning algorithms that use only lidar observations and reanalysis data as predictors. Our paradigm employs high-accuracy suborbital lidar and collocated in situ measurements to train and test two fully-connected neural network algorithms. We use two lidar data sets as input to our machine learning algorithms. The first data set consists of suborbital lidar observations not previously used in the training of the machine learning algorithms. The second data set consists of simulated UV-only observations to preview the algorithms’ predictive capabilities in anticipation of data from the ATmospheric LIDar system on the EarthCARE satellite, which was launched in May 2024. Here we show that our algorithms predict two crucial aerosol properties, aerosol light absorption and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations with unprecedented accuracy, yielding mean relative errors of 21% and 13%, respectively, when suborbital lidar data are used as predictors. These errors represent significant improvements over conventional aerosol retrievals. Applied to future satellite missions, the paradigm presented here has great potential for constraining Earth System Models and reducing uncertainties in their estimates of aerosol climate forcing and future global warming. Aerosol properties are predicted with unprecedented accuracy by machine learning algorithms using only lidar observations and reanalysis data as predictors.

From July through October, smoke from biomass-burning (BB) fires on the southern African subcontinent is transported westward through the free troposphere over one of the largest stratocumulus cloud decks on our planet (Fig. 1). BB aerosol (smoke) absorbs shortwave radiation efficiently. This fundamental property implicates smoke within myriad small-scale processes with potential large-scale impacts on climate that are not yet well understood. A coordinated, international team of scientists from the United States, United Kingdom, France, South Africa, and Namibia will provide an unprecedented interrogation of this smoke-and-cloud regime from 2016 to 2018, using multiple aircraft and surface-based instrumentation suites to span much of the breadth of the southeast Atlantic.

Simulations are performed for the period 2000–2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July–August–September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10 ∘S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ∼0.5–1 K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ∼0.2–0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m−2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m−2 (most absorbing BBAs).

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth’s biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a 5-year NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) investigation with three intensive observation periods designed to study key atmospheric processes that determine the climate impacts of these aerosols. During the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring (June–October), aerosol particles reaching 3–5 km in altitude are transported westward over the southeast Atlantic, where they interact with one of the largest subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The representation of these interactions in climate models remains highly uncertain in part due to a scarcity of observational constraints on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as due to the parameterized treatment of physical processes. Three ORACLES deployments by the NASA P-3 aircraft in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018 (totaling ~ 350 science flight hours), augmented by the deployment of the NASA ER-2 aircraft for remote sensing in September 2016 (totaling ~ 100 science flight hours), were intended to help fill this observational gap. ORACLES focuses on three fundamental science themes centered on the climate effects of African BB aerosols: (a) direct aerosol radiative effects, (b) effects of aerosol absorption on atmospheric circulation and clouds, and (c) aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions. This paper summarizes the ORACLES science objectives, describes the project implementation, provides an overview of the flights and measurements in each deployment, and highlights the integrative modeling efforts from cloud to global scales to address science objectives. Significant new findings on the vertical structure of BB aerosol physical and chemical properties, chemical aging, cloud condensation nuclei, rain and precipitation statistics, and aerosol indirect effects are emphasized, but their detailed descriptions are the subject of separate publications. The main purpose of this paper is to familiarize the broader scientific community with the ORACLES project and the dataset it produced.

Global measurements of absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) are scarce and mostly provided by the ground network AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork). In recent years, several satellite products of AAOD have been developed. This study's primary aim is to establish the usefulness of these datasets for AEROCOM (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) model evaluation with a focus on the years 2006, 2008 and 2010. The satellite products are super-observations consisting of 1∘×1∘×30 min aggregated retrievals. This study consists of two papers, the current one that deals with the assessment of satellite observations and a second paper (Schutgens et al., 2021) that deals with the evaluation of models using those satellite data. In particular, the current paper details an evaluation with AERONET observations from the sparse AERONET network as well as a global intercomparison of satellite datasets, with a focus on how minimum AOD (aerosol optical depth) thresholds and temporal averaging may improve agreement between satellite observations. All satellite datasets are shown to have reasonable skill for AAOD (three out of four datasets show correlations with AERONET in excess of 0.6) but less skill for SSA (single-scattering albedo; only one out of four datasets shows correlations with AERONET in excess of 0.6). In comparison, satellite AOD shows correlations from 0.72 to 0.88 against the same AERONET dataset. However, we show that performance vs. AERONET and inter-satellite agreements for SSA improve significantly at higher AOD. Temporal averaging also improves agreements between satellite datasets. Nevertheless multi-annual averages still show systematic differences, even at high AOD. In particular, we show that two POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectances) products appear to have a systematic SSA difference over land of ∼0.04, independent of AOD. Identifying the cause of this bias offers the possibility of substantially improving current datasets. We also provide evidence that suggests that evaluation with AERONET observations leads to an underestimate of true biases in satellite SSA. In the second part of this study we show that, notwithstanding these biases in satellite AAOD and SSA, the datasets allow meaningful evaluation of AEROCOM models.

The total effect of aerosols, both directly and on cloud properties, remains the biggest source of uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing on the climate. Correct characterization of intensive aerosol optical properties, particularly in conditions where absorbing aerosol is present, is a crucial factor in quantifying these effects. The southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA), with seasonal biomass burning smoke plumes overlying and mixing with a persistent stratocumulus cloud deck, offers an excellent natural laboratory to make the observations necessary to understand the complexities of aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions. The first field deployment of the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign was conducted in September of 2016 out of Walvis Bay, Namibia. Data collected during ORACLES-2016 are used to derive aerosol properties from an unprecedented number of simultaneous measurement techniques over this region. Here, we present results from six of the eight independent instruments or instrument combinations, all applied to measure or retrieve aerosol absorption and single-scattering albedo. Most but not all of the biomass burning aerosol was located in the free troposphere, in relative humidities typically ranging up to 60 %. We present the single-scattering albedo (SSA), absorbing and total aerosol optical depth (AAOD and AOD), and absorption, scattering, and extinction Ångström exponents (AAE, SAE, and EAE, respectively) for specific case studies looking at near-coincident and near-colocated measurements from multiple instruments, and SSAs for the broader campaign average over the month-long deployment. For the case studies, we find that SSA agrees within the measurement uncertainties between multiple instruments, though, over all cases, there is no strong correlation between values reported by one instrument and another. We also find that agreement between the instruments is more robust at higher aerosol loading (AOD400>0.4). The campaign-wide average and range shows differences in the values measured by each instrument. We find the ORACLES-2016 campaign-average SSA at 500 nm (SSA500) to be between 0.85 and 0.88, depending on the instrument considered (4STAR, AirMSPI, or in situ measurements), with the interquartile ranges for all instruments between 0.83 and 0.89. This is consistent with previous September values reported over the region (between 0.84 and 0.90 for SSA at 550nm). The results suggest that the differences observed in the campaign-average values may be dominated by instrument-specific spatial sampling differences and the natural physical variability in aerosol conditions over the SEA, rather than fundamental methodological differences.

The representations of clouds, aerosols, and cloud–aerosol–radiation impacts remain some of the largest uncertainties in climate change, limiting our ability to accurately reconstruct past climate and predict future climate. The south-east Atlantic is a region where high atmospheric aerosol loadings and semi-permanent stratocumulus clouds are co-located, providing an optimum region for studying the full range of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions and their perturbations of the Earth's radiation budget. While satellite measurements have provided some useful insights into aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions over the region, these observations do not have the spatial and temporal resolution, nor the required level of precision to allow for a process-level assessment. Detailed measurements from high spatial and temporal resolution airborne atmospheric measurements in the region are very sparse, limiting their use in assessing the performance of aerosol modelling in numerical weather prediction and climate models. CLARIFY-2017 was a major consortium programme consisting of five principal UK universities with project partners from the UK Met Office and European- and USA-based universities and research centres involved in the complementary ORACLES, LASIC, and AEROCLO-sA projects. The aims of CLARIFY-2017 were fourfold: (1) to improve the representation and reduce uncertainty in model estimates of the direct, semi-direct, and indirect radiative effect of absorbing biomass burning aerosols; (2) to improve our knowledge and representation of the processes determining stratocumulus cloud microphysical and radiative properties and their transition to cumulus regimes; (3) to challenge, validate, and improve satellite retrievals of cloud and aerosol properties and their radiative impacts; (4) to improve the impacts of aerosols in weather and climate numerical models. This paper describes the modelling and measurement strategies central to the CLARIFY-2017 deployment of the FAAM BAe146 instrumented aircraft campaign, summarizes the flight objectives and flight patterns, and highlights some key results from our initial analyses.

Biomass burning smoke is advected over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean between July and October of each year. This smoke plume overlies and mixes into a region of persistent low marine clouds. Model calculations of climate forcing by this plume vary significantly in both magnitude and sign. NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) had deployments for field campaigns off the west coast of Africa in 3 consecutive years (September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018) with the goal of better characterizing this plume as a function of the monthly evolution by measuring the parameters necessary to calculate the direct aerosol radiative effect. Here, this dataset and satellite retrievals of cloud properties are used to test the representation of the smoke plume and the underlying cloud layer in two regional models (WRF-CAM5 and CNRM-ALADIN) and two global models (GEOS and UM-UKCA). The focus is on the comparisons of those aerosol and cloud properties that are the primary determinants of the direct aerosol radiative effect and on the vertical distribution of the plume and its properties. The representativeness of the observations to monthly averages are tested for each field campaign, with the sampled mean aerosol light extinction generally found to be within 20 % of the monthly mean at plume altitudes. When compared to the observations, in all models, the simulated plume is too vertically diffuse and has smaller vertical gradients, and in two of the models (GEOS and UM-UKCA), the plume core is displaced lower than in the observations. Plume carbon monoxide, black carbon, and organic aerosol masses indicate underestimates in modeled plume concentrations, leading, in general, to underestimates in mid-visible aerosol extinction and optical depth. Biases in mid-visible single scatter albedo are both positive and negative across the models. Observed vertical gradients in single scatter albedo are not captured by the models, but the models do capture the coarse temporal evolution, correctly simulating higher values in October (2018) than in August (2017) and September (2016). Uncertainties in the measured absorption Ångstrom exponent were large but propagate into a negligible (<4 %) uncertainty in integrated solar absorption by the aerosol and, therefore, in the aerosol direct radiative effect. Model biases in cloud fraction, and, therefore, the scene albedo below the plume, vary significantly across the four models. The optical thickness of clouds is, on average, well simulated in the WRF-CAM5 and ALADIN models in the stratocumulus region and is underestimated in the GEOS model; UM-UKCA simulates cloud optical thickness that is significantly too high. Overall, the study demonstrates the utility of repeated, semi-random sampling across multiple years that can give insights into model biases and how these biases affect modeled climate forcing. The combined impact of these aerosol and cloud biases on the direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) is estimated using a first-order approximation for a subset of five comparison grid boxes. A significant finding is that the observed grid box average aerosol and cloud properties yield a positive (warming) aerosol direct radiative effect for all five grid boxes, whereas DARE using the grid-box-averaged modeled properties ranges from much larger positive values to small, negative values. It is shown quantitatively how model biases can offset each other, so that model improvements that reduce biases in only one property (e.g., single scatter albedo but not cloud fraction) would lead to even greater biases in DARE. Across the models, biases in aerosol extinction and in cloud fraction and optical depth contribute the largest biases in DARE, with aerosol single scatter albedo also making a significant contribution.

In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.

The North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES) is an interdisciplinary investigation to improve understanding of Earth’s ocean ecosystem-aerosol-cloud system. Specific overarching science objectives for NAAMES are to (1) characterize plankton ecosystem properties during primary phases of the annual cycle and their dependence on environmental forcings, (2) determine how these phases interact to recreate each year the conditions for an annual plankton bloom, and (3) resolve how remote marine aerosols and boundary layer clouds are influenced by plankton ecosystems. Four NAAMES field campaigns were conducted in the western subarctic Atlantic between November 2015 and April 2018, with each campaign targeting specific seasonal events in the annual plankton cycle. A broad diversity of measurements were collected during each campaign, including ship, aircraft, autonomous float and drifter, and satellite observations. Here, we present an overview of NAAMES science motives, experimental design, and measurements. We then briefly describe conditions and accomplishments during each of the four field campaigns and provide information on how to access NAAMES data. The intent of this manuscript is to familiarize the broad scientific community with NAAMES and to provide a common reference overview of the project for upcoming publications.