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[...]there is an ongoing reliance on the Global North for solutions to local problems and an inability to develop alternative approaches to problem solving that take local (non-northern) contexts into account. Ten years ago, Nigel Crisp observed, with respect to the healthcare workforce that ‘the global health system is characterised by an import–export business in which rich countries export the ideology of Western scientific medicine and aid predicated on this ideology to poor countries. The countries of the Global South are the least able to cope with the world as it is, or to prepare for the world that is to come: climate change; food scarcity and water shortages; energy demands; environmental degradation; urbanisation and demographic shifts due to ageing, fertility and (forced) migration; emerging infectious diseases and the increasing prevalence of chronic diseases. The lack of concern about the global distribution of scientific capacity was apparent in a recent Elsevier and Ipsos MORI paper on research futures which does not even identify an intellectual presence in the Global South in its 10-year projection.13 Instead, a scenario is posited of the Eastern ascendance of science, led by China, and predicated on the cloning of the top Western institutions and the attraction of scientists from Europe and North America to China.

This study explores the relationship between BMI and national-wealth and the cross-level interaction effect of national-wealth and individual household-wealth using multilevel analysis. Data from the World Health Survey conducted in 2002-2004, across 70 low-, middle- and high-income countries was used. Participants aged 18 years and over were selected using multistage, stratified cluster sampling. BMI was used as outcome variable. The potential determinants of individual-level BMI were participants' sex, age, marital-status, education, occupation, household-wealth and location(rural/urban) at the individual-level. The country-level factors used were average national income (GNI-PPP) and income inequality (Gini-index). A two-level random-intercepts and fixed-slopes model structure with individuals nested within countries was fitted, treating BMI as a continuous outcome. The weighted mean BMI and standard-error of the 206,266 people from 70-countries was 23.90 (4.84). All the low-income countries were below the 25.0 mean BMI level and most of the high-income countries were above. All wealthier quintiles of household-wealth had higher scores in BMI than lowest quintile. Each USD10000 increase in GNI-PPP was associated with a 0.4 unit increase in BMI. The Gini-index was not associated with BMI. All these variables explained 28.1% of country-level, 4.9% of individual-level and 7.7% of total variance in BMI. The cross-level interaction effect between GNI-PPP and household-wealth was significant. BMI increased as the GNI-PPP increased in first four quintiles of household-wealth. However, the BMI of the wealthiest people decreased as the GNI-PPP increased. Both individual-level and country-level factors made an independent contribution to the BMI of the people. Household-wealth and national-income had significant interaction effects.

Across the world, the question of a woman’s right to choose when and whether to become pregnant and whether to carry the pregnancy to term is a subject that can make or break governments; can result in women’s incarceration, including in the event of spontaneous abortions (miscarriage); and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality when there is a lack of access to safe abortion services.1 The right to the highest attainable standard of health is enshrined in international law—with no caveats. “[S]afe and legal abortion access constitutes a critical part of human rights and, in particular, the right to the highest attainable standard of health (which includes reproductive rights) as well as other human rights including the rights to non-discrimination and equality, respect for private life, the right to life, and the right to freedom from torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment.” There is no obvious reason why this should be so.10 Comprehensive sexual and reproductive health care (SRH) services exist as a part of a right to health, and abortion services are one among many SRH services.7 Also, much like those other health services, abortion services deliver the most significant positive impact on health and wellbeing when they are effective, available, affordable and accessible to all those in need.11 The criminalisation of abortions establishes a hierarchy of human worth in violation of numerous human rights instruments.

ObjectiveThis study aims to determine the relationship between door-to-balloon delay in primary percutaneous coronary intervention and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI) outcomes and examine for potential effect modifiers.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies that have investigated the relationship of door-to-balloon delay and clinical outcomes. The main outcomes include mortality and heart failure.Results32 studies involving 299 320 patients contained adequate data for quantitative reporting. Patients with ST-elevation MI who experienced longer (>90 min) door-to-balloon delay had a higher risk of short-term mortality (pooled OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.40 to 1.65) and medium-term to long-term mortality (pooled OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.06). A non-linear time–risk relation was observed (P=0.004 for non-linearity). The association between longer door-to-balloon delay and short-term mortality differed between those presented early and late after symptom onset (Cochran’s Q 3.88, P value 0.049) with a stronger relationship among those with shorter prehospital delays.ConclusionLonger door-to-balloon delay in primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-elevation MI is related to higher risk of adverse outcomes. Prehospital delays modified this effect. The non-linearity of the time–risk relation might explain the lack of population effect despite an improved door-to-balloon time in the USA.Clinical trial registrationPROSPERO (CRD42015026069).

Background To investigate the association between national culture and national BMI in 53 low-middle- and high-income countries. Methods Data from World Health Survey conducted in 2002–2004 in low-middle- and high-income countries were used. Participants aged 18 years and over were selected using multistage, stratified cluster sampling. BMI was used as an outcome variable. Culture of the countries was measured using Hofstede’s cultural dimensions: Uncertainty avoidance, individualism, Power Distance and masculinity. The potential determinants of individual-level BMI were participants’ sex, age, marital status, education, occupation as well as household-wealth and location (rural/urban) at the individual-level. The country-level factors used were average national income (GNI-PPP), income inequality (Gini-index) and Hofstede’s cultural dimensions. A two-level random-intercepts and fixed-slopes model structure with individuals nested within countries were fitted, treating BMI as a continuous outcome variable. Results A sample of 156,192 people from 53 countries was included in this analysis. The design-based (weighted) mean BMI (SE) in these 53 countries was 23.95(0.08). Uncertainty avoidance (UAI) and individualism (IDV) were significantly associated with BMI, showing that people in more individualistic or high uncertainty avoidance countries had higher BMI than collectivist or low uncertainty avoidance ones. This model explained that one unit increase in UAI or IDV was associated with 0.03 unit increase in BMI. Power distance and masculinity were not associated with BMI of the people. National level Income was also significantly associated with individual-level BMI. Conclusion National culture has a substantial association with BMI of the individuals in the country. This association is important for understanding the pattern of obesity or overweight across different cultures and countries. It is also important to recognise the importance of the association of culture and BMI in developing public health interventions to reduce obesity or overweight.

IntroductionMore than two-thirds of people with dementia live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), resulting in a significant economic burden in these settings. In this systematic review, we consolidate the existing evidence on the cost of dementia in LMICs.MethodsSix databases were searched for original research reporting on the costs associated with all-cause dementia or its subtypes in LMICs. The national-level dementia costs inflated to 2019 were expressed as percentages of each country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and summarised as the total mean percentage of GDP. The risk of bias of studies was assessed using the Larg and Moss method.ResultsWe identified 14 095 articles, of which 24 studies met the eligibility criteria. Most studies had a low risk of bias. Of the 138 LMICs, data were available from 122 countries. The total annual absolute per capita cost ranged from US$590.78 for mild dementia to US$25 510.66 for severe dementia. Costs increased with the severity of dementia and the number of comorbidities. The estimated annual total national costs of dementia ranged from US$1.04 million in Vanuatu to US$195 billion in China. The average total national expenditure on dementia estimated as a proportion of GDP in LMICs was 0.45%. Indirect costs, on average, accounted for 58% of the total cost of dementia, while direct costs contributed 42%. Lack of nationally representative samples, variation in cost components, and quantification of indirect cost were the major methodological challenges identified in the existing studies.ConclusionThe estimated costs of dementia in LMICs are lower than in high-income countries. Indirect costs contribute the most to the LMIC cost. Early detection of dementia and management of comorbidities is essential for reducing costs. The current costs are likely to be an underestimation due to limited dementia costing studies conducted in LMICs, especially in countries defined as low- income.PROSPERO registration numberThe protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews database with registration number CRD42020191321.

Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

Background Twenty years after acknowledging the importance of joint responsibilities and male participation in maternal health programs, most health care systems in low income countries continue to face challenges in involving men. We explored the reasons for men’s resistance to the adoption of a more proactive role in pregnancy care and their enduring influence in the decision making process during emergencies. Methods Ten focus group discussions were held with opinion leaders (chiefs, elders, assemblymen, leaders of women groups) and 16 in-depth interviews were conducted with healthcare workers (District Directors of Health, Medical Assistants in-charge of health centres, and district Public Health Nurses and Midwives). The interviews and discussions were audio recorded, transcribed into English and imported into NVivo 10 for content analysis. Results As heads of the family, men control resources, consult soothsayers to determine the health seeking or treatment for pregnant women, and serve as the final authority on where and when pregnant women should seek medical care. Beyond that, they have no expectation of any further role during antenatal care and therefore find it unnecessary to attend clinics with their partners. There were conflicting views about whether men needed to provide any extra support to their pregnant partners within the home. Health workers generally agreed that men provided little or no support to their partners. Although health workers had facilitated the formation of father support groups, there was little evidence of any impact on antenatal support. Conclusions In patriarchal settings, the role of men can be complex and social and cultural traditions may conflict with public health recommendations. Initiatives to promote male involvement should focus on young men and use chiefs and opinion leaders as advocates to re-orient men towards more proactive involvement in ensuring the health of their partners.

Breast cancer patients in low- and middle-income countries often present at an advanced stage. This qualitative study elicited views regarding the challenges and opportunities for breast cancer screening and early detection among women in a low-income semi-rural community in Segamat district, Malaysia. Individual semi-structured interviews with 22 people (health professionals, cancer survivors, community volunteers and member from a non-governmental organization) and four focus group discussions (n = 22 participants) with women from a local community were conducted. All participants were purposively sampled and female residents registered with the South East Asia Community Observatory aged ≥40 years were eligible to participate in the focus group discussions. Data were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using thematic analysis. The thematic analysis illuminated barriers, challenges and opportunities across six domains: (i) personal experiences and barriers to help-seeking as well as financial and travel access barriers; (ii) primary care challenges (related to delivering clinical breast examination and teaching breast-self-examination); (iii) secondary care challenges (related to mammogram services); (iv) disconnection between secondary and primary care breast cancer screening pathways; and (v) opportunities to improve breast cancer early detection relating to community civil service society activities (i.e. awareness raising, support groups, addressing stigma/embarrassment and encouraging husbands to support women) and vi) links between public healthcare personnel and community (i.e. improving breast self-examination education, clinical breast examination provision and subsidised mammograms). The results point to a variety of reasons for low uptake and, therefore, to the complex nature of improving breast cancer screening and early detection. There is a need to adopt a systems approach to address this complexity and to take account of the socio-cultural context of communities in order, in turn, to strengthen cancer control policy and practices in Malaysia.